Here Comes Trouble

The Twins are off to a nice start. They opened up with back-to-back shutouts on the road, on the way to a season-opening sweep and winning road trip. Sure, they fell to earth with a pair of low-scoring losses on the back end, but there's no shame in struggling against premier pitching in early April, as your hitters find their grooves.

At least, that's the charitable take. 

The less charitable take is that the Twins took care of business against two sub-par teams, but let some opportunities slip away due to an underwhelming offense with some carryover sleepiness from last season.

The 2022 Twins, despite ranking 11th among MLB teams in OPS, were 17th in runs scored, thanks to a warped distribution: While apt to blow up occasionally, they scored two or fewer in nearly one-third (32%) of their games. 

Now, the 2023 Twins have opened up by scoring two or fewer in four of their first six.

Again, it's an easy thing to downplay and excuse, all things considered. But this Minnesota lineup was a question mark coming in, especially down multiple key pieces out of the gate. And while they've still managed a winning record thus far, the difficulty level is about to rise immensely

Starting with Friday's home opener, the Twins will play 10 of their next 19 games against the Astros and Yankees. There's also a three-game homestand against a key division rival, the Chicago White Sox, mixed in there. 

It's proving time, to say the least. Minnesota's pitching stuff looks up to the challenge, but we shouldn't expect the same kind of success as the they saw against the Royals and Marlins. In order to come out of this early-season gauntlet in a reasonably good place, the Twins are going to need to get their offense going.

Some key questions:

• Can the right-handed bats start producing some power? The Twins have hit six home runs so far, with lefty hitters (Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler) accounting for all but one. Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, and Carlos Correa have yet to go yard. The Twins could use some punch from this group.
• What's up with Kepler? He started his season 0-for-13, broke out on Monday with two hits including a homer ... then tweaked his knee running to first, and hasn't played since. It sounds like he should return to the lineup soon, but how soon, and can he recapture the momentum that was starting to finally materialize? Kepler might not seem like a crucial part of the offense but as we've seen, the byproduct of him not playing is that Willi Castro does.
• When will Jorge Polanco return? Or Alex Kirilloff, for that matter, but Polanco seems significantly closer. On Thursday night, he opens an official rehab stint at Class-A Ft. Myers, where he's batting second and starting at second base. It's plausible he could return to the fold during this 19-game stretch. Getting back Polanco at something resembling full strength would be a game-changer for this offense, particularly with some high-caliber opposing pitchers about to come through.

Yes, the Twins are off a nice start, but fans know better by now than to let that get them too confident. In 2021, the team started 5-2 before the bottom fell out. Last year they also looked promising, and things noticeably started to take a turn when they welcomed (drumroll) the Astros into town for a three-game set in May.

It was there that the Twins, who entered the series seven games above .500 at 18-11, started to really show their flaws against superior competition. Already mired by injuries, they were swept and outscored 21-3 in front of the home fans. 

Justin Verlander nearly no-hit their slump-prone offense. (Not to be confused with the other time he almost no-hit them last year.) The acrobatic act that helped Chris Archer jump out to a 3.26 ERA in his first five starts gave way, as the Astros pummeled him for five runs in three innings. Around this time we also learned that Chris Paddack, who came out of a start in the previous series with elbow soreness, would undergo Tommy John surgery.

Beyond that disastrous series, most Twins fans have plenty of negative associations with the Astros, who most recently swept Minnesota out of the playoffs and have recently made a habit of clobbering the hometown nine while dynastically dominating the American League. The Yankees? Well, nothing further needs to be said on that front.

Showdowns with these two opponents have produced some of the most devastating moments and ominous turning points for Twins teams over the past couple decades, and both clubs are looking very strong as expected this season.

Can the Twins break one of their most frustrating patterns and hang in there against these giants of the AL, showing they belong in the conversation rather than customarily shrinking in the moment? That's the kind of statement that would really energize and engage an understandably skeptical fan base. It will require the Twins to clean up some of the flaws that have been on display against mediocre opponents in the first week, while continuing to throw the living hell out of the ball. 

Yeah, it's been a nice start. Now the real work begins.