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Rumor: Arraez Traded to Fish for Lopez and Two Additional Minor Leaguers!


MN_ExPat
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24 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I hate to see Arraez go but this feels like a really good baseball move. 

I do think the trade was a good trade in terms of players going and coming. However, I still wish the Twins had aimed a little higher than Lopez and paid a little more to get one of the other pitchers from Miami. Maybe those discussions included Lewis or the equivalent, I don't know. But, I'm not disappointed in this. Other than I will miss Luis.

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3 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I hate this for 2023, even if the prospect pays off some day.  Our offense stinks, so trade our best hitter for another #3 starter. I can't wait until this front office is gone.

I see your point,  but disagree that he’s our best hitter.

The average is nice, sure.  But, he had 20 more hits than Carlos Correa over the course of the season, and Correa misses time.  When those extra hits are mostly singles with nobody on base, there’s not a ton of value added there.

Correa hit like 13-14 more home runs, OPS’d .30 points higher, walked more, and was a full 10 points higher in OPS+.  It’s not even close, frankly.

A healthy Buxton (I know) and Kirilloff are right up there also.  

But, yes, I see your point and it’s valid.

After hearing some analysis of Lopez by a few different people….it sounds like there’s some upside there.  He’s under two years of control, and they threw in a top 100 prospect.  You just can’t say know to that for an empty .315 batting average and bad knees.

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2 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Does kinda make me wonder what level of confidence the Twins have in their prospect pitchers...like, zero?

It's a win now and win next year move. Lopez is more rotation insurance in 2023 and he'll be around in 2024 while Gray, Mahle, and Maeda enter free agency. The Twins can't possibly fill 3/5ths of their rotation with prospects by this time next year, which means they'd be right back to searching for 2+ more rotation arms next offseason.

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9 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I hate this for 2023, even if the prospect pays off some day.  Our offense stinks, so trade our best hitter for another #3 starter. I can't wait until this front office is gone.

Not like we're replacing Babe Ruth or Henry Aaron.  Replacing a batting champion who couldn't put up an .800 OPS en route to said title. 

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I enjoyed watching Arraez and am glad he had his career year with the Twins. I hope he has a solid MLB career hitting 275-320 with 15 doubles and 6 homers.

While I'd have preferred a second pitcher, creating more depth to the MilB system opens up a path to trade elsewhere for more. Maybe now they feel more comfortable sending Brooks Lee for a tip-top starter. Perhaps another deal can even be made with Miami. They still need league average hitting. Might they like to try a whole new outfield of Gordon, Larnach and Kepler? 

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Mixed feelings on this trade...

- Offense was barely above average (4.3 runs/game VS league average 4.28) takes a hit with the moves made so far

- Pitching was slightly above average (4.22 runs/game VS league average 4.28) even though we suffered a lot of injuries. Adding Lopez gives depth, but how much do we improve?

I hope we improve a lot on the pitching side because it's hard to envision the offense being better.

 

In '24 Lopez will help as we currently have multiple SP's approaching free agency. The prospects add some value, but they're very young & likely won't impact the Twins roster any time soon.. 

 

Overall, from a value standpoint it seems to be a decent deal. It's just hard to understand what the plan is with this team. If we don't add an impact bat (like the one we just traded) I think it will be tough to score enough even if we get an improvement in Pitching. 

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18 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Especially if AK stays healthy at first base. Even if he doesn't, you slide Miranda over to first and Royce plays third when he comes back. 

Farmer will play all the time at 3rd vs. lefty starters……..Miranda at 1st. …………he’ll also spell Miranda for rest. He’s at 3rd 50 games this season.

IF:

Kirilof - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Farmer………they gotta think one of the other young guys is ready after spring training…….Lee - Martin - somebody?

OF:

Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Gallo - Garlick

DH:

Larnach - Buxton - Kirilof - Garlick

Need another bench guy if Kepler is gone - seems to me a young IF fits……….we don’t know about Kirilof’s health at this point either!

If healthy, Lewis displaces Garlick at some point.

Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - ???? from Farm in another trade. Just can’t imagine justifying keeping Kepler after Gallo trade!!

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This trade reminds me of something the FO said early in their tenure...don't get too attached the players.  You may not agree with their moves, but they certainly aren't afraid to mix it up.  

While we do not have a clear #1, this starting staff, at least on paper, is as deep as its ever been.  

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1 hour ago, MGX said:

Mixed feelings on this trade...

- Offense was barely above average (4.3 runs/game VS league average 4.28) takes a hit with the moves made so far

- Pitching was slightly above average (4.22 runs/game VS league average 4.28) even though we suffered a lot of injuries. Adding Lopez gives depth, but how much do we improve?

I hope we improve a lot on the pitching side because it's hard to envision the offense being better.

In '24 Lopez will help as we currently have multiple SP's approaching free agency. The prospects add some value, but they're very young & likely won't impact the Twins roster any time soon.. 

Overall, from a value standpoint it seems to be a decent deal. It's just hard to understand what the plan is with this team. If we don't add an impact bat (like the one we just traded) I think it will be tough to score enough even if we get an improvement in Pitching. 

What I think you're not paying enough attention to with this post is how much immediate prospect upside the Twins have on the positional side of things and how little immediate prospect upside they have in the rotation.

Losing Arraez hurts because he's a good player. But he's also a LHB that's limited defensively. He's kind of a bad fit at first base while Kirilloff is a natural fit. You can probably strap a big mitt on Trevor Larnach's right hand and he can figure it out, too. And the team still has Matt Wallner waiting in the wings and Royce Lewis a couple of months behind him. Perhaps by mid-season we're talking about Lee and/or Julien, too.

I just listed a bunch of players.

Now if you look to pitching, you have Woods Richardson. Winder. Sands. They're all interesting prospects but none of them profile to be a difference-making arm, especially fresh out of the minors. They're at least one - and probably two - steps below Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff and more of an equivalent of Wallner.

That's why the Twins traded Arraez for a pitcher.

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On 1/21/2023 at 11:58 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

What I think you're not paying enough attention to with this post is how much immediate prospect upside the Twins have on the positional side of things and how little immediate prospect upside they have in the rotation.

Losing Arraez hurts because he's a good player. But he's also a LHB that's limited defensively. He's kind of a bad fit at first base while Kirilloff is a natural fit. You can probably strap a big mitt on Trevor Larnach's right hand and he can figure it out, too. And the team still has Matt Wallner waiting in the wings and Royce Lewis a couple of months behind him. Perhaps by mid-season we're talking about Lee and/or Julien, too.

I just listed a bunch of players.

Now if you look to pitching, you have Woods Richardson. Winder. Sands. They're all interesting prospects but none of them profile to be a difference-making arm, especially fresh out of the minors. They're at least one - and probably two - steps below Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff and more of an equivalent of Wallner.

That's why the Twins traded Arraez for a pitcher.

I was only discussing the trade & it's impact in '23 & then beyond. In '23 I wonder how we're going to score runs when we were average in terms runs scored last year. Looking at the position players removed from last year & what we've added I don't see improvement. Your talking about immediate prospect upside from players who were already in our organization. I definitely pay attention to Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Lee, Julien & all of our prospects. The trade didn't impact whether they can stay healthy/improve this year.

I didn't even say I was against the trade, Lopez gives us needed depth after '23 with 3 SP's headed for free agency. Additionally, we received two prospects, one of whom is borderline top 100. So as I said above from a value perspective I think it's a decent deal.

That doesn't take away the question of how are we going to score runs in '23. I hope all of those players step up & the Twins have an even better offense & Lopez is more than what we're hoping for & becomes an Ace. It's still fair to wonder where the lost offense will come from.

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On 1/21/2023 at 12:26 AM, dxpavelka said:

Not like we're replacing Babe Ruth or Henry Aaron.  Replacing a batting champion who couldn't put up an .800 OPS en route to said title. 

Can't argue that... a .795 OPS should get you cut and banned from the league ;)

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On 1/21/2023 at 11:34 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Farmer will play all the time at 3rd vs. lefty starters……..Miranda at 1st. …………he’ll also spell Miranda for rest. He’s at 3rd 50 games this season.

IF:

Kirilof - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Farmer………they gotta think one of the other young guys is ready after spring training…….Lee - Martin - somebody?

OF:

Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Gallo - Garlick

DH:

Larnach - Buxton - Kirilof - Garlick

Need another bench guy if Kepler is gone - seems to me a young IF fits……….we don’t know about Kirilof’s health at this point either!

If healthy, Lewis displaces Garlick at some point.

Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - ???? from Farm in another trade. Just can’t imagine justifying keeping Kepler after Gallo trade!!

Looks good, but Garlick was DFA'd off the 40 man just recently.  Not that he couldn't be added back, but there would need to be a corresponding move to clear space. 

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6 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

Looks good, but Garlick was DFA'd off the 40 man just recently.  Not that he couldn't be added back, but there would need to be a corresponding move to clear space. 

Two clear moves can/will be made ASAP. Paddack and Lewis will go on the 60-day IL. Two non-roster players can make the Twins Opening Day roster without losing another player.

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