The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers

[Ted Schwerzler]

From the moment that the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last spring, they knew it was a one-year deal. For them to extend him on a long-term contract more negotiations were going to need to take place, but unfortunately, they fell short of pushing to a point where it mattered.

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Last offseason, Scott Boras approached the Minnesota Twins with a creative idea. For as much as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggest a willingness to find interesting ways to get deals done, this was Carlos Correa’s agent throwing the Twins a bone. Despite never before being able to play on the playground with the big kids, Correa was open to a one-year deal that provided him some assurances. He was going to best Anthony Rendon’s previous infield-best contract by average annual value, and he had a fallback option should the year go poorly.

Early on in the season I talked with a front office source that signified an unlikeliness that the Twins could keep Correa around. It was known this was a one-year deal, and given the number of $280 million as a cap for where they’d present an offer, nothing more seemed likely. Then the offseason came.

Minnesota operated in a way that watched as pitchers and position players went off the board. They stayed out of other happenings while focusing their dollars on Correa. The problem is that the offer was never raised until the final moment, and even then, by just $5 million. The Twins didn’t view the Giants as the threat they were, thinking their offer was closer to $300 million. Following a counter from Boras and Correa of 13 years and $360 million, it hit Minnesota smack in the face. They were never close.

It doesn’t matter whether the Chicago Cubs or New York Yankees were ever interested. Steve Cohen even flew Correa out to New York simply to give him $300 million reasons to consider the Mets. The Giants could’ve waited until the last moment to hit Aaron Judge money, but the reality is that they still did so. With the Twins never surpassing the $300 million mark, they were never truly going to be in the running, and ultimately they came up $65 million short.

Splitting the difference suggests that the Twins were unwilling to go an additional three years and $65 million. That amount is less than $22 million per season, and could be negligible by the time they’d ever have had to pay Correa those dollars. In an industry surpassing $11 billion this past season, Minnesota had their one chance to overcome a label of being cheap or failing to spend, and they failed to make the discussion interesting.

It’s odd to think that the front office would see a willingness to pay Correa $28.5 million at age 38, but the hard and fast lunacy set in for years 39-41. The reality is that most shortstops start to hit a cliff somewhere in their mid-30’s. Correa isn’t likely to reinvent that wheel, and the back half of that deal was never going to go well. Suggesting they were fine with it, but stopping short of making an offer he’d consider, is an odd stance to take.

Maybe even worse, as Correa’s medicals fell apart and caused a change of course, the Twins weren’t considered again. Boras went to the last minute Mets and worked out a 12 year deal for $315 million. That’s only $15 million per year extra, and two years beyond where the Twins were. Minnesota’s unwillingness to move into a realm that the shortstop would consider left them in the cold a second time.

All of 2022, fans heard about how much Correa and his family liked Minnesota and the Twins Cities. When Byron Buxton was unveiling Minnesota’s new uniforms he talked of his former teammate and noted a desire to have him back. Now the front office has their $100 million man without the guy that he publicly suggested needing to be here.

As things stand currently, Kyle Farmer is set to be Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop, The revolving door at the position continues, and Farmer couldn’t be further from what Rocco Baldelli opened with last season. Royce Lewis isn’t going to be back until mid-summer at the earliest, and he’s coming off a second torn ACL. Prospect Brooks Lee looks the part of a big leaguer, but he’s thought to be moved off of shortstop at some point. Austin Martin has already transitioned from shortstop, and neither Nick Gordon or Jorge Polanco are going back.

Baseball has key positions up the middle, and at the one opportunity Minnesota may ever have to lock down the role for a decade, they chose to value pennies on the dollar and cause themselves to again never be taken seriously. Correa may have moved on Minnesota’s contract had nothing else showed up, but the reality is that was never going to be the case, and now the Twins are left trying to figure it out once again.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

One elite player and two rookies, or two Joey Gallos (only signed for one year, so no long term fix) and a random low priced vet? Which would you prefer?

[danielp19653]

When I saw the Mets signed him I assumed they offered near or exactly what the Giants did to steal him. Seeing it just barely above what the Twins offered when I'm sure they already knew any medical issues that could have come up after a year with him blew me away. How do you not make that last push when the price just dropped him so close to your previous offer. Especially when you've seen Gallo is the best you can do with what's left??? This is more infuriating to me than the initial miss as I can't see the Twins at 350 but come on matching 315 or slightly better wasn't an option? I have to imagine matching the deal and saying you're our SS not our 3B would have helped their cause.

[mnfireman]

$28.5 MM/yr is not skimping. And paying a guy for years he won't even be playing, years 11-13, is lunacy. 

Devers and Machado are going to be real expensive next year. Especially Devers, as he will only be 27 when FA begins.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I believe the FO wasn't creative enough, pretty straight forward if you ask me. MN was in the hunt but it was Correa's fall back offer & he was willing to wait. Until NYM got in the mix, SF panicked (had every right) & desperately gave that ridiculous offer. They got cold feet so Correa went with where he wanted to go. MN didn't have the money nor the clear shot at the post season that Correa wanted.

[Twins GFP]

This article feels like trolling... Assumptions everywhere that the Twins did nothing and watched the world go by while praying to the church of Correa.

Salary was not the ultimate hurdle in Correa going to the Mets.  He went to the Mets to play in a bigger market with more revenue opportunities and to play on a team that has a very strong chance to win for years to come.

Nowhere has there been any comments made that even if the Twins had matched the insane Giants offer, that he would choose MN.  The same can be said about his deal with the Mets.

We seriously need to stop putting the lack of Correa coming here squarely on the shoulders of the FO.  Sure, the FO decisions may be part of it, but stop this "failure" blame game.

[LewFordLives]

If the Twins had "won" the bidding for Correa everyone would cheer, and then about two years later Twins fans would be complaining about that albatross of a contract (see Joe Mauer).

The Twins offer and Mets deal are essentially the same in present value terms. How do we know Correa had any desire whatsoever to continue playing for the Twins?

I get that sometimes you gotta shell out the dough to keep/acquire the good players, but Correa just isn't worth it. The Twins have no established starters under contract beyond this year. If they are going to throw money around that's where it should be.

[Ted Schwerzler]

34 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

$28.5 MM/yr is not skimping. And paying a guy for years he won't even be playing, years 11-13, is lunacy. 

Devers and Machado are going to be real expensive next year. Especially Devers, as he will only be 27 when FA begins.

 

Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

[Ted Schwerzler]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This article feels like trolling... Assumptions everywhere that the Twins did nothing and watched the world go by while praying to the church of Correa.

Salary was not the ultimate hurdle in Correa going to the Mets.  He went to the Mets to play in a bigger market with more revenue opportunities and to play on a team that has a very strong chance to win for years to come.

Nowhere has there been any comments made that even if the Twins had matched the insane Giants offer, that he would choose MN.  The same can be said about his deal with the Mets.

We seriously need to stop putting the lack of Correa coming here squarely on the shoulders of the FO.  Sure, the FO decisions may be part of it, but stop this "failure" blame game.

Plenty of front office insight on this.

Correa had been leaning towards the Twins until the $300M mark was surpassed. The Twins weren't ever willing to get there, and Boras was never going to have Correa sign a deal that didn't reach it.

You can't make an offer that comes that far short, hoping he liked his year here enough to take it, and then also watch as FA passes you by.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

$28.5 MM/yr is not skimping. And paying a guy for years he won't even be playing, years 11-13, is lunacy. 

Devers and Machado are going to be real expensive next year. Especially Devers, as he will only be 27 when FA begins.

 

By the last three years, you are giving up an average free agent to get an elite player in his prime. I'd do that all day 

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

$28.5 MM/yr is not skimping. And paying a guy for years he won't even be playing, years 11-13, is lunacy. 

Devers and Machado are going to be real expensive next year. Especially Devers, as he will only be 27 when FA begins.

 

It has absolutely nothing to do with the AAV. The problem is that they KNEW 285M would not get him here but acted like they thought it would. Going to 285M but no higher says that they wanted people to think they were serious, because yeah, that's serious money, but they didn't really want to pay it. It'd be like me offering Bruce Springsteen 20K for a private concert and bragging to my friends about how I'm a high roller. That's too much money for me to spend, but obviously he's got better gigs lined up and wouldn't accept it anyway.

It was either an act, or extreme naivety. Both options are problems in my mind.

[Dman]

At this point In the end this whole thing seemed like a lose\lose for the FO. This board has already given them grief for signing guys that had potential injury concerns. Upping the offer after another team gave pause to how long Correa might last seems like a bad idea for a small market team.  I mean even the generally free spending Giant didn't want to take on the risk why would the Twins? 

I don't really blame the FO not getting back into this mess if they even had much of a chance anyway.  Cohen would have out bid them almost no matter what they put out there for a number.  If Correa "really" wanted to be in Minnesota he could have taken a small discount to do it.  He chose not to and that tells me all I need to know. Time to just move on.

[cballhitball]

I always view free agency, trades, contracts etc. from the perspective that management, GM's and the like know way more than I do.  That said, I just wish we knew what the thought process was/is with the Twins in terms of winning a World Series.  All I can comment on is that the current team I see is not ready for prime time.  Someone please prove to me otherwise.

[Chachi]

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me since 1991, shame on me.

[mnfireman]

23 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

They were bidding against themselves at that point. After the Giants offer, going to $300 MM makes no sense. The Mets knew what the Twins offer was, so they went $315MM. Going to $300 MM still wouldn't get it done, if Boras even called them for an offer. The Mets, being the Mets, would have just beat that offer anyway. Spin it anyway you want, this was a Lose-Lose situation for the Twins.

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

They were bidding against themselves at that point. After the Giants offer, going to $300 MM makes no sense. The Mets knew what the Twins offer was, so they went $315MM. Going to $300 MM still wouldn't get it done, if Boras even called them for an offer. The Mets, being the Mets, would have just beat that offer anyway. Spin it anyway you want, this was a Lose-Lose situation for the Twins.

As the wise man said:

”You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, and know when to run…”

[TyCobb367]

I don’t see Correa being worth that contract in 5 years! These contracts are insane, and I thought teams had learned their lessons since the A-Rod, Cano, Pujols type contracts worked out so poorly in the long run. Maybe the teams are betting on Argentina type inflation? 
 

The Twins should start the youth movement this season, and sign players to short contracts that can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. 

[Twins GFP]

48 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

Actually it's not skimping, that is sound business.  You do you your cost/benefit analysis and figure out how much you are willing to pay.  Once you reach your threshold, that's it.

The Giants offer was insanely high.  The Mets offer was insanely high when you factor in the luxury tax.  If the Mets weren't crazy, what are the chances Correa would be a Twin right now with their offer?  Probably pretty good.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, TyCobb367 said:

I don’t see Correa being worth that contract in 5 years! These contracts are insane, and I thought teams had learned their lessons since the A-Rod, Cano, Pujols type contracts worked out so poorly in the long run. Maybe the teams are betting on Argentina type inflation? 
 

The Twins should start the youth movement this season, and sign players to short contracts that can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. 

So, the owners should keep the money? I'd rather the players get it. YMMV.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Actually it's not skimping, that is sound business.  You do you your cost/benefit analysis and figure out how much you are willing to pay.  Once you reach your threshold, that's it.

The Giants offer was insanely high.  The Mets offer was insanely high when you factor in the luxury tax.  If the Mets weren't crazy, what are the chances Correa would be a Twin right now with their offer?  Probably pretty good.

You'd rather have two Gallo types and a veteran near the minimum, than an elite player and two rookies? You'd like to take the chance on being right over and over on one year deals?

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This article feels like trolling... Assumptions everywhere that the Twins did nothing and watched the world go by while praying to the church of Correa.

Salary was not the ultimate hurdle in Correa going to the Mets.  He went to the Mets to play in a bigger market with more revenue opportunities and to play on a team that has a very strong chance to win for years to come.

Nowhere has there been any comments made that even if the Twins had matched the insane Giants offer, that he would choose MN.  The same can be said about his deal with the Mets.

We seriously need to stop putting the lack of Correa coming here squarely on the shoulders of the FO.  Sure, the FO decisions may be part of it, but stop this "failure" blame game.

Ok, we can stop putting the blame for Correa squarely on the shoulders of the FO.

But what about an off season that has produced Vasquez (an A in  my book), Farmer as the starting SS, and Gallo?  Who shoulders the blame for that? 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

59 minutes ago, Chachi said:

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me since 1991, shame on me.

Now that's really funny.

[4twinsJA]

Time will tell how good an investment Correa is for the Mets. If he performs well the next 3-4 years is that enough, 6-7 years of high level performance, don't like the odds of Correa being anything more than an average player the last 3-4 years of the contract. Mets probably can afford that, but Twins cannot.

[howeda7]

The issue isn't signing Correa, it's this front-office forever sitting out free agency while competitors fill their holes.

If they want to salvage a team that at least has a shot at the central:

Trade Kepler for Eduardo Escobar (probably have to involve a 3rd team).

Sign Taylor Rogers (2/$16-2/$20)

Re-sign Fulmer (2/$10)

Sign Eovaldi (2/$30?)

Trade Pagan for a box of balls.

Vs RH

2B Arreaz

SS Polanco

CF Buxton

DH Miranda

LF Larnach

3B Escobar

1B Kiriloff

RF Gallo

C Vazquez

Vs LHP

1B Arreaz

2B Polanco

CF Buxton

DH Miranda

3B Escobar

SS Farmer

RF Garlick

C Jeffers

LF Gordon

Rotation:

Gray

Mahle

Ryan

Eovaldi

Ober

Bullpen

Duran

Rogers

Lopez

Theilbar

Jax

Fulmer

Alcala/Moran

Maeda

 

[mnfireman]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You'd rather have two Gallo types and a veteran near the minimum, than an elite player and two rookies? You'd like to take the chance on being right over and over on one year deals?

I think the FO is counting on three of Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, and Miller to develop and cover 2B, 3B and SS over the next 6-10 years. Until a salary cap is put in place, this is how it will have to be done.

[Treevor71]

Id hardly call 10/$285 skimping, that’s an over pay for a suspect back and a player who has never hit 30 hr or driven in 100.  IMO teams like the Twins should never give a contract like that to a player unless they are a legit super star, a player that can be counted on to take the field daily and be clutch, Correa was horrible with runners in scoring position.  The Giants and Twins dodged a bullet in my opinion, although I don’t agree with how the Giants handled things with him.  Everyone here complaining that we didn’t go high enough to get him are the same people that complained that mauer got that big contract and didn’t live up to it, I think Correas contract will age horribly and obviously Cohen can eat it with his money. 

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I think the FO is counting on three of Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, and Miller to develop and cover 2B, 3B and SS over the next 6-10 years. Until a salary cap is put in place, this is how it will have to be done.

So, pocket the money? Ugh. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Treevor71 said:

Id hardly call 10/$285 skimping, that’s an over pay for a suspect back and a player who has never hit 30 hr or driven in 100.  IMO teams like the Twins should never give a contract like that to a player unless they are a legit super star, a player that can be counted on to take the field daily and be clutch, Correa was horrible with runners in scoring position.  The Giants and Twins dodged a bullet in my opinion, although I don’t agree with how the Giants handled things with him.  Everyone here complaining that we didn’t go high enough to get him are the same people that complained that mauer got that big contract and didn’t live up to it, I think Correas contract will age horribly and obviously Cohen can eat it with his money. 

If you walk into a car dealer, and offer ten percent under sticker, is it a real offer?

The alternative appears to be two Joey Gallo types....

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you walk into a car dealer, and offer ten percent under sticker, is it a real offer?

It used to be.....

[RJA]

The only silver lining in all of this is that the AL Central is so pathetic that 85 wins could win it all, especially with the new balanced schedule. But, when I look at the projected lineups, I don't think the Twins are close to fielding a team that would do anything in the playoffs even if they were lucky enough to take the Central.  I think we all need to admit to ourselves that the Twins will never be a consistent winner so long as we refuse to spend more on payroll and take some chances in free agency.  Even if we had signed Correa, we would never have spent the money necessary to surround him with talent. He knew that and made an intelligent decision to go elsewhere.  We are stuck in a rut of being good enough to be decent and sometimes a little better than that, but never a top tier team.  "Pretty good" should be our mantra.