How Badly Do The Twins Need Catching Help?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Coming into this season, it was clear there was a changing of the guard behind the plate for the Minnesota Twins. Mitch Garver was sent to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Gary Sanchez was acquired from the New York Yankees. Now halfway into the year, it’s the one position where offensive production is lacking.

 

Ryan Jeffers was seen as a bat-first player when the Twins drafted him, and there were questions as to whether he’d ever stick behind the plate. Fast forward to where we are now, and Jeffers has turned himself into one of the better receivers across the league. Unfortunately, the bat that played over 26 games in 2021 has been nonexistent the past two seasons.

Garver and Jeffers split time last season, with the latter getting in 85 games. Across 293 plate appearances for the Twins last season, Jeffers put up a .670 OPS which translated to an 84 OPS+. In 206 plate appearances thus far this season he owns a lesser .666 OPS but given offensive decline as a whole, that translates to a better 92 OPS+. That means Jeffers has failed to be a league-average hitter for either of the past two seasons. 

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Maybe that works as his framing plays, but it’s not as though Jeffers is a stalwart in all areas with the glove. Jeffers has already allowed five passed balls in 230 less innings than he recorded six last season. Although the Twins receiving style doesn’t necessarily put emphasis on catching base stealers, Jeffers has thrown out just six of 35 base runners. That 17% falls well below the 24% league average, a mark that Jeffers was within one percent of last season.

Then there’s Gary Sanchez.

It’s been peaks and valleys with the former Yankees backstop. Sanchez owns a better .702 OPS and has basically been league average with his bat the past two seasons. Offensively he’s not the complete non-factor he was in 2018 or 2020, but at league-average, his approach leaves plenty to be desired.

Through 67 games, Sanchez has hit 10 homers, a bit behind his pace from last season that resulted in 23 longballs. His on-base production has dipped significantly however, in that he owns an ugly 73/17 K/BB. Last season, despite a .204 average, he posted a .307 OBP. This season there’s just a 60 point split between the two, and his .281 OBP has resulted in a power-or-nothing approach.

Defensively Sanchez has fewer passed balls than his teammate, and throwing out seven of 23 would-be-base-stealers has him above league average at 30%. He’s not as good of a receiver, but has made notable strides that Minnesota no doubt appreciates.

These two players combined could probably provide something of more use, but on their own each is coming up just short. That leaves the front office with a question as to whether this is a position to address before the trade deadline flies by.

One of the biggest names available from a hitting standpoint is veteran catcher Willson Contreras. The Chicago Cubs backstop is all but certain to be moved as he’s a free agent following this season. His .867 OPS is otherworldly at a position not typically ripe with offense production. He’s also solid behind the dish defensively, and would give Minnesota an option to upgrade their worst position.

How a catcher factors in for the Twins remains intriguing. Jeffers, Sanchez, and a third player would not all fit on the active roster. Someone would almost have to be moved in any deal that acquires the position, but that could send ripple effects through the clubhouse. There’s also the reality that Minnesota’s 40-man roster is incredibly thin behind the plate after the two included on the 26-man roster, and having options for the future needs to be a focus.

I still think it’s unlikely the Twins trade for a bat, especially in needing so much pitching help, but if they do, adding to a position of need and swinging for one of the best in the game at it would hardly be unwelcomed.

What do you think? Should the Twins add a catcher at the deadline? Is someone like Contreras going to cost too much?

 

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[Mark G]

My question would be who is going to be available in free agency this off season?  We can't go indefinitely with the catchers we have, especially with no one in the distant future coming up from the farm, but we might be able to get through this year if necessary.   We do, though, need to make a concerted effort to sign someone in the off season to be a number one guy going forward, as neither of our two current are providing any long term confidence in the position.  I would hate to see giving up player capital to get a rental for two months, I would rather wait until the off season to make a move, but if the right deal came along for the future, never say never.  

[Major League Ready]

I would love to see Contreras here next year but I really doubt they trade for him this year.

[Whitey333]

I doubt that they trade for a catcher but who knows?  Our catching is a problem both offensively and defensively.  They need help but we need pitching so much more.  Let's hope the FO moves to improve the team for the stretch run.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm OK with Jeffers and Sanchez today...but what do the Twins do: 1) when one of them gets hurt; 2) next year; and 3) 2,3,4 etc. years from now with not one catcher in the Twins top 30 prospects.

[MGM4706]

Definitely need an upgrade. Jeffers only hits a HR when it doesn't matter. Runners take advantage of him running. Time for a change.

[Gatormandd]

Catching appears to be a long-term problem; without anything clear-cut in the system, we need to either spend big bucks on Contreras, OR pay a (much) smaller price for a stalwart defensive catcher, take our lumps on offense, and use the money on whatever else is needed (resign Correa, or something crazy like that). Twins can't/won't do both, I believe.

 

[PopRiveter]

This got me to look into the splits since a lot of Sanchez PA’s and some Jeffers PA’s have been at DH.

Twins catchers’ stats combined (when catching):

.205/.273/.390 .662 OPS

346 pa, 19 2b, 13 hr,  41 rbi

I hate that batting average, but the power helps. Overall those numbers seem fine to me for the catching position. So what does sOPS+ think?

sOPS+ 101

That’s almost exactly average. Not a strength, not a weakness.

 

[roger]

Really down on the catching situation, as I expect is the Twins FO.  Was surprised to read that Jeffers has thrown out as many runners as he has.  Remember after getting no one for the first couple months of the season, his first was a guy who was safe before being tagged out after sliding past second base.  And now I read that his passed balls a up.  How does he possibly rate as an average defensive catcher?

Didn't expect much from Sanchez as he was expected to be all about his bat.  Don't know what the Twins do in 2023 or the future, but something has to change.  Hopefully, that will start Sunday with the kid from Ga. Tech falling to them.

[Trov]

I would love to see them trade for  Willson Contreras but my guess they will not.  I do not know what he would cost as a rental, but many teams will be bidding.  Very few contending teams would not be willing to upgrade offense at catcher.  Even though the Twins offense is not their biggest issue, if you can make it even better at catcher I would look at it.  

[Byrdman]

They are catchers, they are playing pretty much at league level in the AL. There are only two that are sticking out higher, Kirk and Heim than most.  We will never have another Joe Mauer.  Jeffers and Sanchez are perfectly fine.  Garver had one good year at the plate.  Catchers are catchers they have never been great hitters.  We do not have a catcher problem.

[Jeff D.]

Good article and question posed. IMO, if it were in my hands, I would try to deal Sano, Jeffers, Kepler for a closer and another catcher. We have enough OF depth here and in St. Paul to fill the hole. Though Kepler is a great defender and takes many pitches he is a lifetime .240 hitter, which by the way is the same as Buxton. 

Twins Geezer ... out!

[Otaknam]

I don’t see the Twins making a trade for a catcher this season. upgrading pitching is the priority, and the Jeffers/Sanchez  duo will have to do. I think Jeffers may have more upside offensively than he is showing right now, so I don’t think it’s time to panic. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Gatormandd said:

Catching appears to be a long-term problem; without anything clear-cut in the system, we need to either spend big bucks on Contreras, OR pay a (much) smaller price for a stalwart defensive catcher, take our lumps on offense, and use the money on whatever else is needed (resign Correa, or something crazy like that). Twins can't/won't do both, I believe.

 

Alex Isola could end up in the top 30 at the end of the year if he progresses defensively but catcher would be a great place to invest free agent dollars next year.  The Twins will easily have the budget for two top level free agents next year.  Contreras would make a lot of sense.  However, they are not signing Correa if a team is willing to commit 7+ years to him.  Lewis provides the most value at SS and my guess is they are confident he is their SS for the next several years, starting about this time next year.   I am hoping that 2nd top free agent is Joe Musgrove or Carlos Rodon.  They can also afford a relatively high profile RP in that budget as well.  

[old nurse]

Baseball numbers and what they mean. Twins catchers are poor at throwing out runners yet in a league that is more and more driven by data the Twins ate low in giving up stolen bases. 

There is passed ball data, but no data on blocked balls. The Twins are lower on the list for WP. The difference between the two stats is someone’s judgement. Passed balls also can happen when you are trying to hard to pitch frame.  

Hitting is more clearly defined

[Seth Stohs]

Short Answer: Not Very. 

[Karbo]

1st priority has to be pitching, along with 2nd and 3rd priority's. Yes we could sure use an upgrade at catcher but pitching is a much bigger need.

[jccracraft]

I would be okay with giving Jeffers a bigger role for the rest of the season. Trade Sanchez and Ursela for perhaps a reliever. Which would also give Miranda more PT at 3rd.

 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

This got me to look into the splits since a lot of Sanchez PA’s and some Jeffers PA’s have been at DH.

Twins catchers’ stats combined (when catching):

.205/.273/.390 .662 OPS

346 pa, 19 2b, 13 hr,  41 rbi

I hate that batting average, but the power helps. Overall those numbers seem fine to me for the catching position. So what does sOPS+ think?

sOPS+ 101

That’s almost exactly average. Not a strength, not a weakness.

 

I need more from DH.  He basically weakens two positions - DH and C.  But what happens when he is a FA?

[mikelink45]

I think Jeffers is set - we have to live with what he brings, but he should be able to bring up his hitting statistics. I do not know what is wrong, but it seems like he has had a better approach the last two weeks.  Sanchez is set to be a FA - do we resign him?  If not do we rely on Jeffers and Godoy?  That is when it gets really bad.  

[mikelink45]

With Catchers hitting such a miserable rate all over they are becoming the pitchers in the lineup - soon we will have two DHs and one will be for catcher.  

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

With Catchers hitting such a miserable rate all over they are becoming the pitchers in the lineup - soon we will have two DHs and one will be for catcher.  

Catchers have become more responsible for run prevention as strikeouts increased and balls in play decreased. Most of the game is the defense standing around watching the pitcher and catcher do all the work.

[Stew]

This would solve defensive and offensive problems at one position. We would have to trade sanchez. We should go for broke. We would not be in any worse shape then we were before last year's trades. Players we could trade: Richardson, Martin, duffey, larnach, winder,Kepler ?, Sano ?, Steer, and  a couple others. We won't trade all these guys. But this is our best chance to go for it. Get Castillo or montas and one bullpen arm. We have a small chance to pass Houston for second over all seed. That would be  big 

[Mike Sixel]

Seems like looking at these numbers compared to the league.... Would lead one to believe the team is near league median.... So, hardly a real concern.

Jeffers has barely been in the league, and people want to give up on him. People asking to trade for one long term.... What team is giving up a long term catcher? There just aren't many on the planet. 

[chpettit19]

For this season Sanchez and Jeffers are fine. They're not stars, but they're both decent enough hitters for catchers.

For next year I'd be happy to see Omar Narvaez signed. I'd guess Milwaukee tries to bring him back, but if he hits the market I'd sign him and platoon him and Jeffers.

[Mike Sixel]

Yup. The twins are league median offensively among MLB teams at catcher. I just checked. Actually, they are 11th..... I'd suggest that content is important when considering what would be done this year, and when judging the players.

[PopRiveter]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I need more from DH.  He basically weakens two positions - DH and C.  But what happens when he is a FA?

I'm really only thinking about 2022 and I found it enlightening to look at those OPS+ splits by defensive position. From that vantage point, the offensive production from catcher has not been bad, and the offensive production from DH has been excellent (though Jeffers' stats as DH are horrible.)

Arraez has already corrected the deficiency at 1B. 

LF stands out as the weak spot where an upgrade would be most impactful- and Kiriloff might be on his way to fixing that.

[mikelink45]

13 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

I'm really only thinking about 2022 and I found it enlightening to look at those OPS+ splits by defensive position. From that vantage point, the offensive production from catcher has not been bad, and the offensive production from DH has been excellent (though Jeffers' stats as DH are horrible.)

Arraez has already corrected the deficiency at 1B. 

LF stands out as the weak spot where an upgrade would be most impactful- and Kiriloff might be on his way to fixing that.

Thanks for this look at the positions. So catcher is basically League average when we combine Sanchez and Jeffers. What would it be if we just had Jeffers and not Sanchez?  

[PopRiveter]

11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Thanks for this look at the positions. So catcher is basically League average when we combine Sanchez and Jeffers. What would it be if we just had Jeffers and not Sanchez?  

Wow. I'm surprised. I expected the opposite of this:

[Tibs]

We need 2-3 relievers and 1-2 SP before even considering catcher.

At this point Jeffers/Sanchez put up similar, or has been shown in previous comments potentially slightly better, offensive production than catchers around the league. Unless we're trading for Yadi Molina, which isn't happening, I'm not convinced there would be a noticeable upgrade in defense at the position.

The fact that either of these two guys have ever been in the lineup as DH is a much bigger concern.