Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

[dex8425]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't know what to think of this trade.  And some of that is that I don't know what to think about the two guys joining the Twins.  Are they good?  Or not?  And more important, will they be good for the Twins this year and next?

Although I expect nothing is official, but is there a fifth piece to this trade and is it coming to the Twins?  If so, who?

I don't know what to expect from this year's bullpen, but I have always liked Rogers...a lot.  I will miss him and expect the Twins bullpen will also miss him.  On the other hand, this trade certainly makes the Twins starting rotation deeper.  When they signed Archer they went from five potential starters to six.  This gives them seven.  Yes there are other young prospects, but most/all of them aren't ready for the big leagues and won't be ready until at least mid-summer.

So I don't know what to expect, and the truth is none of us do.  It should be a bit comforting that the Padres manager last year is now a Twins coach and they should have had some inside knowledge of these two guys.  I hope?

 

Paddack is projected for 129 innings with a 4.4 ERA, so I'd say most people assume he will be good this year. And he's cheaply cost controlled until 2025. San Diego is certainly selling low on him trading him right now. He was a top prospect who was awesome his rookie year in 2019. 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't quite share Mike's enthusiasm about the bullpen, but most years, there's only about three teams that like the bullpen they have.

Relievers tend to be unreliable by nature, even the good ones. There success is always based on small sample sizes and if they were reliable, they'd all be starters. To me, it always seems like predicting how good your bullpen will be was about as accurate as an early 20th Century weatherman.

There's certainly variability, based I believe on the small sample sizes. A bad outing or three will have an outsized impact on a reliever's numbers. 

But I do not believe that is the same thing as unreliable. 

I believe in good telievers going forward over bad no matter if they had a bad game. And I DON'T believe in "just a guy" relievers no matter their streak of luck.

Relievers vary in quality just as much as starters do, And there are strong pens and weak ones, just as there are starting staffs.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, blindeke said:

Again, Wes Johnson will have to be doing some amazing work.

Aren't we still waiting on this? I think Wes is a probably a great guy, but I don't see the magic yet.

Rogers, to me, should have been untouchable, at least until the deadline. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year. Seems likely it will be so again. Why risk it?

With a fairly weak/untested rotation, we needed to shorten games. Period. Rogers can shorten games. Can others in the pen?

Look, we'll see how this plays out, and I'm still excited for Twins baseball. But all of this scrambling to find-a-controllable-starter energy could have used on negotiating with Berrios last year on a long-term extension. Teams don't usually give up on a guy like Paddack unless they know first-hand that he's not going to bounce back.

This is a "D" grade trade, with "A" grade upside, yes. But it could also sink the season early.

[Twinsrule1991]

This trade doesn't move the needle and our bullpen is significantly worse. The margins for error on this team are too thin to expect anything come October except for a front office change, especially when our bullpen looks like this.

[LastOnePicked]

43 minutes ago, chaderic20 said:

one year of a good reliever

I like your thinking, but Rogers was a "great" reliever. Elite, actually. And we likely will need an elite reliever in this bullpen this year, badly.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

A commenter mentioned Kenta Maeda... I'm not in the loop like some of you are. Does he have a chance to play this year?

 

Edit: I like the trade and the potential Paddack could brings. 

[dex8425]

Just now, TouchEmAllGuy said:

A commenter mentioned Kenta Maeda... I'm not in the loop like some of you are. Does he have a chance to play this year?

Yep. Back mid-season would be best-case scenario. Should be able to throw innings in August, Sept and Oct.

[Tibs]

Three years of team control doesn't matter for Paddack is he doesn't start pitching a whole lot better. I'm excited for his potential. It could be a big win for the Twins if he improves. But yeah the fact is he hasn't been good the last two years and the team control doesn't matter if he pitches like that.

Losing Rogers sucks but isn't shocking. Definitely need one of the young guys to step up in the bullpen

[dex8425]

5 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I like your thinking, but Rogers was a "great" reliever. Elite, actually. And we likely will need an elite reliever in this bullpen this year, badly.

They must be thinking somebody like Jhoan Duran will be pitching high leverage innings in that spot by the end of April. Duran's stuff is every bit as good as Rogers'

[mk]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

No they can only lose them, but that's kind of the point.

The Twins lost plenty of playoff games with Joe Nathan at the backend of the rotation as well. Admittedly, I'm biased as I think a "proven closer" is vastly overrated.

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

Maybe they plan one starter to go like 4-5 innings, then one of the others the rest of the game? Basically like a long reliever of the past. 5 days in between starts to throw 5 innings is silly.

With 16 pitchers on the roster they can have one pitcher throw 4 innings, the next throw 3 innings and then have 2 relievers finish the game. You can do that every game for 4 consecutive games and not use the same pitchers twice.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, TouchEmAllGuy said:

A commenter mentioned Kenta Maeda... I'm not in the loop like some of you are. Does he have a chance to play this year?

August or later

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Well Bundy would be my first, second and third choices to lose innings. Archer would be a distant fourth.

I am hoping Bundy is good enough we can get rid of him at the deadline and make more room for Winder / Balazovic.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I am hoping Bundy is good enough we can get rid of him at the deadline and make more room for Winder / Balazovic.

I'll be shocked if he's on the roster that long. 

[mk]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I am hoping Bundy is good enough we can get rid of him at the deadline and make more room for Winder / Balazovic.

I am hoping Bundy has the best year of his career, as do the rest of the Twins pitchers, and it's really difficult to decide who gets to start game 1 of the playoffs because they've all been so dominant.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if he's on the roster that long. 

If Winder sticks on the big league club, hopefully they do some piggy-backing. If they do and Winder (or Duran) make it clear that they are the superior pitcher to the vet they are backing, that should make these decisions pretty easy. It will be an apples to apples comparison instead of the normal AAA batters to MLB batters comparison.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Aren't we still waiting on this? I think Wes is a probably a great guy, but I don't see the magic yet.

Rogers, to me, should have been untouchable, at least until the deadline. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year. Seems likely it will be so again. Why risk it?

With a fairly weak/untested rotation, we needed to shorten games. Period. Rogers can shorten games. Can others in the pen?

Look, we'll see how this plays out, and I'm still excited for Twins baseball. But all of this scrambling to find-a-controllable-starter energy could have used on negotiating with Berrios last year on a long-term extension. Teams don't usually give up on a guy like Paddack unless they know first-hand that he's not going to bounce back.

This is a "D" grade trade, with "A" grade upside, yes. But it could also sink the season early.

This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good.

Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Twins need more than 5 starting pitchers.  Look at the garbage arms they ran out there last year because nobody else could take the mound.   Now, with the recent signings and the young talent coming up, the Twins have plenty of depth.   Maeda comes back next year,  too.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If Winder sticks on the big league club, hopefully they do some piggy-backing. If they do and Winder (or Duran) make it clear that they are the superior pitcher to the vet they are backing, that should make these decisions pretty easy. It will be an apples to apples comparison instead of the normal AAA batters to MLB batters comparison.

That's what I'd do, so it probably won't happen....

[dex8425]

7 minutes ago, mk said:

I am hoping Bundy has the best year of his career, as do the rest of the Twins pitchers, and it's really difficult to decide who gets to start game 1 of the playoffs because they've all been so dominant.

Sonny Gray is gonna win the 2022 Cy Young, lets go!! 

[bobajoul]

Looks like we have the best rotation in baseball, if it’s 2019

[nicksaviking]

Wow, the Twins are paying nearly all of Rogers salary; 6.6M. 

That's more than what they are paying Bundy, including next year's buyout.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good.

Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.

Huh? 13.2 K/9. 1.8 BB/9. Rogers was excellent. The bullpen improved from the Colome disaster, yes, but a healthy Rogers would have only helped bolster that improvement. And he's healthy now.

And is there any evidence that Tingler was even consulted on the trade? Maybe possible, but seems unlikely.

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

Twins need more than 5 starting pitchers.  Look at the garbage arms they ran out there last year because nobody else could take the mound.   Now, with the recent signings and the young talent coming up, the Twins have plenty of depth.   Maeda comes back next year,  too.

Pitching is a numbers game. No organization can look at 5 starters and declare themselves covered. Options 6 through 10 are going to play a role. 

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Wow, the Twins are paying nearly all of Rogers salary; 6.6M. 

That's more than what they are paying Bundy, including next year's buyout.

What?

[Craig Arko]

I imagine the angst over Paddack is that he’s Vance Worley in disguise. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Wow, the Twins are paying nearly all of Rogers salary; 6.6M. 

That's more than what they are paying Bundy, including next year's buyout.

There must be a heck of a PTBNL coming back? Otherwise, this seems odd to me. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Huh? 13.2 K/9. 1.8 BB/9. Rogers was excellent. The bullpen improved from the Colome disaster, yes, but a healthy Rogers would have only helped bolster that improvement. And he's healthy now.

And is there any evidence that Tingler was even consulted on the trade? Maybe possible, but seems unlikely.

I didn't say Rogers was bad. I said when Rogers was in the bullpen the bullpen was bad. You stated that when he wasn't healthy the bullpen was bad. That isn't true. When he was healthy (the first half of the season) the bullpen was terrible. After he got hurt the bullpen did very well. I'm not saying no Rogers was why it was good, but your statement "The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was very good.

Your argument is that the FO's 2nd highest ranked coach was a trade target's manager the previous season and it's unlikely that they talked to said coach about that trade target? They should be fired if they didn't talk to him. This trade came together over 12 hours of time and you don't think they took the time to shoot Tingler a text at the very least and ask him if he thought Paddack could be coached up?

[Twinsoholic]

I share Nicksaviking’s surprise that the Twins are paying most of Rogers’ salary ($6.6 million). How often do the Twins send money in a trade? Is this money going to help get a blue chip player to be named later, or does it signal something else such as the value of the team control years for Paddack and Pagan? 

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, Paddack is like 6 months older than Winder.....I hope we can stop talking about taking innings away from young players at the expense of old players....