Nelson Cruz wants 2 years

[Twodogs]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/twins-rumors-nelson-cruz-two-year-deal.html

[MABB1959]

Give it to him without blinking an eye.  He is a fun player to watch.

[Nine of twelve]

As I said in another thread, at Cruz' age he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Giving someone his age a two-year contract doesn't sound smart. However, he's not a typical 40-year-old. He had a very, very good 60 games. Is he truly the best option available? I just don't know.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nope. I'd offer a lucrative 1 + option but not two years guaranteed.

[Twodogs]

Nope. I'd offer a lucrative 1 + option but not two years guaranteed.

For me it depends, if he is one of those guys that you want to keep in your organization after his playing days are over; you know to be a coach or PR, or in the front office somewhere then I'd give him the 2 year deal. If your not interested in keeping him around after he's done playing then no.

[mikelink45]

Sorry, been nice to know you. 

[DocBauer]

Little confused here. Cruz wants 2yrs...who wouldn't?...but MLB just stated the NL will return to normal status for 2021 as of now. Soooo...unless there is a sudden decision made the other way, Cruz now only has half a league to play in or play financially. And I'm betting half those teams already have a DH in place or a plan. 

 

I don't blame Cruz for looking at financial opportunity. I never blame anyone for that. But reality sets in at some point. He loves being a Twin. He made good $ the past 2yrs. He's embraced here by the fans, his teammates and the entire organization. His opportunities are going to be limited. He doesnt have much time left.  And I don't believe the market is going to grant him another big $14-15M payday per. I would expect $12-13 and the Twins being the best option for both parties. Yes, I think a 2nd yr and buyout might be in line. But also at a reduced salary. Unfortunately for everyone, there are strange and unknown financial repercussions  taking place. Cruz staying HOME with the Twins makes the most sense for everyone.

[freshinthehouse]

I'm sure it's already been discussed and I just haven't seen it, but is it possible to offer Cruz a QO?

[TopGunn#22]

As usual, Doc Bauer nailed.  I concur.  He's our best hitter.  it's not even close.  We MUST have him.  But the market isn't going to get him $15 million.  The Twins and Cruz will come to some sort of arrangement and Nellie Boomstick will be back.  I'd be very interested in having him as a future hitting coach.  He's going to need more rest going forward to get the most out of him, which seems counter-intuitive and tough on the Twins as much as they will be depending on him in their lineup.  But with guys like Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach the Twins should be able to keep Nellie rested and productive for certainly one more year and possibly two.  

[Sielk]

I'm sure it's already been discussed and I just haven't seen it, but is it possible to offer Cruz a QO?

No, he already got it two times back when when a player could still receive the QO twice. Can't offer it to him a third time.

[Doctor Gast]

I`d give him the 2 yrs., . the salary would have to be negotiated of course. He`s our best hitter, a great mentor, we`d like for him to stay & coach for us when he wants to retire & I hate for him to end up in CWS.  Like what was said that the universal DH will not happen in 2021 & covid scare where we should get a good price. 2022 if we don`t need him, we can always trade him when maybe his stock could even be higher

[terrydactyls]

Spoiler Alert - this post was made in jest.

 

If the Twins don't trade Sano this off-season, resign Cruz to a two-year deal with the second year salary contingent on Sano meeting specified hitting goals such as a strikeout rate under 40% and a batting average equal to at least 90% of his weight. If the goals aren't met, Cruz' salary in year 2 is cut in half.

[Dodecahedron]

 

As I said in another thread, at Cruz' age he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Giving someone his age a two-year contract doesn't sound smart. However, he's not a typical 40-year-old. He had a very, very good 60 games. Is he truly the best option available? I just don't know.

Is there much evidence of players who have played DH for a few years "falling off a cliff"?  

For Cruz, it's not so much about 2 years, it's about the money. If the first year is $12M and the second is $8M-$10M, I think you take that without hesitation.

[Dodecahedron]

 

As usual, Doc Bauer nailed.  I concur.  He's our best hitter.  it's not even close.  We MUST have him.  But the market isn't going to get him $15 million.  

 

I doubt he will ask for $15M. He made $14M in 2019 and was due to get $12M last year before proration. I can see him taking $20M for two years, split up however the Twins want. 

[stringer bell]

Well, Cruz was the best hitter, perhaps in the AL, for the first 30 games. He was pretty ordinary in the second half of the abbreviated season. From 8/25 on (the last 30 games) until the end of the regular season he hit .256 only five homers and six RBI with 29 strikeouts.

 

He has been a great hitter for a decade, but he’ll be 41 for half of the 2021 season. I’m just not sure he can continue to be great much longer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is there much evidence of players who have played DH for a few years "falling off a cliff"?  

For Cruz, it's not so much about 2 years, it's about the money. If the first year is $12M and the second is $8M-$10M, I think you take that without hesitation.

It happens all the time, though "falling off a cliff" is a bit drastic. Look at Thome, who went from well above league average with the bat to slightly above league average in a season. He immediately retired but had he not, it's likely he follows up that season as a pretty bad DH option. Once someone hits 40, it's really hard to judge how they're going to age season-over-season.

 

edit: It just occurred to me to check Thome's splits in his final season and he was a pretty bad hitter that season. He posted a 112 OPS+, which is pretty weak for a DH/PH. 

 

But the real story is his handed splits. He had 186 PAs that season and only 30 PAs came against LHP. That means he was a hitting specialist who very rarely didn't have the handedness advantage, yet still barely posted an OPS above league average.

[Thegrin]

This is a case where we must trust Falvine to make the right decision.  We won't know the answer until the 2021 season is over.  Good luck to them. 

[twinfan]

This should be a no-brainer. Period!

[Nine of twelve]

 

Is there much evidence of players who have played DH for a few years "falling off a cliff"?  

For Cruz, it's not so much about 2 years, it's about the money. If the first year is $12M and the second is $8M-$10M, I think you take that without hesitation.

 

 

It happens all the time, though "falling off a cliff" is a bit drastic. Look at Thome, who went from well above league average with the bat to slightly above league average in a season. He immediately retired but had he not, it's likely he follows up that season as a pretty bad DH option. Once someone hits 40, it's really hard to judge how they're going to age season-over-season.

 

edit: It just occurred to me to check Thome's splits in his final season and he was a pretty bad hitter that season. He posted a 112 OPS+, which is pretty weak for a DH/PH. 

 

But the real story is his handed splits. He had 186 PAs that season and only 30 PAs came against LHP. That means he was a hitting specialist who very rarely didn't have the handedness advantage, yet still barely posted an OPS above league average.

There is also the ghost of Albert Pujols, although his cliff came at a much earlier age.

[Dantes929]

 

This should be a no-brainer. Period!

What's funny about this post is I am not even sure what side you are taking.   No brainer to sign him to two years or no brainer not to sign him for two years, seeing how the board is pretty split on the subject the fact that you say it is a no brainer without declaring a side kind of by definition makes it the opposite of a no brainer.    Remember extensions to Thome, Willingham, Hughes, Dozier, etc were all considered no brainers at one point.    If Cruz had put those numbers up for someone else at that age and was asking for two years I would say it was a no brainer to turn him down.    The fact that he did it for us I would have no problem with overpaying him for one season with an option.   

[lecroy24fan]

I'd offer the 2nd year as an option that vests if he hits certain thresholds. Make them easy to get, like 25 HR's or 130 games.

[stringer bell]

 

I'd offer the 2nd year as an option that vests if he hits certain thresholds. Make them easy to get, like 25 HR's or 130 games.

Incentives can't be things like homers or RBIs, correct? Games, plate appearances are allowed, but not counting numbers IIRC.

[Dodecahedron]

 

There is also the ghost of Albert Pujols, although his cliff came at a much earlier age.

 

Be skeptical of any stratospheric player who suddenly looked human as steroid enforcement kicked in.

[lecroy24fan]

 

Incentives can't be things like homers or RBIs, correct? Games, plate appearances are allowed, but not counting numbers IIRC.

I think that's right. So instead I'll say 120 games played or 450 PA's.

[Dman]

I don't know what the dollars are yet but I think if you are the Twins you take that two year deal.  When Cruz is healthy he is top shelf and very few in Baseball can match his bat.  When injured it's another story and he is older so will have trouble staying healthy and healing.  I just don't think you want to see him snatched up by another team over one year.  I am sure the Angels or Blue Jays or others would love to have that bat in the lineup.  

 

I don't know if any of you remember the beginning of this season but without Cruz I bet we lose another 6 or 7 games he was just that clutch early on.  He faded just as quickly the next month or so but still ended up our best hitter.  Without his bat this lineup doesn't look that great.  The Twins are going to have to get this done or give up the season next year.  I honestly think he is that important to the team next year.

 

He takes darn good care of his body and I think it is a worthy investment.  Unless the dollars are outrageous I would do it.

[DocBauer]

Part of me hates referencing John and Aaron in their podcast because it makes me feel like I can't think for myself, lol. And while I love and appreciate both guys, despite the title of their podcast, I'm still not sure which one is really the "geek", lol. But in the latest episode Aaron broke down age 39-42yo players who are elite, HOF type performers. And Cruz has been very good to elite for years now, not just the past 2 seasons with the Twins. In fact this almost 1/3 of a season may have actually been benifical to him physically, IMO. And I think he has at least one more really good season in him. His conditioning and preparation are exemplary, as is his knowledge. And I don't buy a couple 10 days to 2 weeks in an abbreviated season to end 2020 means he is done.

 

But a 2yr commitment? Along with the weird, hard to calculate finances for 2021? I'm still thinking 1yr at $12M fits perfectly with all things considered. Again, I would consider a 2nd year for something similar, with a decent buyout, and incentives that guarantee it. Said incentives would be tied to PA or AB. Say something like 400-450 AB. If he was healthy enough to warrant that many AB, it would mean he was healthy and productive enough to actually EARN that 2nd year. Which means he is then on a 1yr deal. And remember there is no such thing as a bad 1yr deal.

 

I'm sure I'm repeating myself at some point here. But Cruz means a lot to the clubhouse as well as the lineup. And losing both him AND Rosario could be damaging. Especially with questions about Donaldson. And that is NOT a shot at Donaldson! I liked the signing. I still do. But worked out in the right way, Cruz is around for at least one more year and Donaldson transitions to more of a DH/1B/some 3B option.

 

Payroll and the FO and all these variables are complete unknowns at this point. And there are holes to fill. And numbers and years for EVERYONE, not just Cruz, are weird and wild speculation at this point. And again, I don't begrudge him looking for 2yrs. But everything points to a 1yr, or MAYBE, some sort of 1yr plus.

 

I think Nellie is going to have to accept that. And it works best for both the Twins and Cruz for something like that. But anything more, I think the Twins may have to regrettably walk away.

[bobs]

 I have no doubt the FO has pages of analytical data to tell them whether this would be a good move or not.

[Monkeypaws]

At the same money they've been paying him? Yes please. I can't imagine him falling off a cliff so steep that it wouldn't be worth it.

 

Cut him off at your own risk - the guy is out of the ordinary, and a great team leader.

[CBtwinsfan]

give him his two years.  His presence is invaluable and the twins will work something out I would think.  With Rosario probably gone we will need a presence in the middle of the order to help Sano.

[Nine of twelve]

Make the offer (for one year or two) large enough that he's willing to stay but small enough for the Twins to be willing to DFA him if need be for the good of the organization.