What to Make of the Twins Arraez-for-Lopez Trade Now

For the waning number of fans complaining about the “Cheap Pohlads”,  the Miami Marlins perspective is that the Twins spend much more on payroll.  Therefore, the Twins were able to resign Pablo Lopez (where Miami would not). 

I really like this Marlins POV article. Nice work. Very interesting to see how the other side feels about a deal that has no clear winner (yet). 

Have you done this before? I know not every trade would be as interesting but I this is great.

I was moaning about this trade (although interestingly somehow found comfort in the inclusion of a couple of low-level minor league prospects) the entire month of April.  April in Minnesota may just never be Lopez's "sweet spot", but his performance heated up with the weather month by month and he has clearly shown that he is exactly what the Twins needed after last season's starting pitching instabiity.

What is even more impressive is to hear him be interviewed.  He is incredibly intelligent not only about baseball but health as a pre-med student in college and the son of two doctors.  He projects an attitude of quiet confidence that makes you believe that he is every day eager to continue learning new things.  It would not surprise me to see him evolve into a front office capacity if he would wish to do so post-playing career.

Fantastic writing technique, by the way, of getting an expert opinion of the Marlins to share their perspective.  Don't know if you have ever used it before but I actually find this quite refreshing and uniquely brilliant.

Did I like trading Arraez? No. Do I like having Lopez? Yes. What I like just as much was the vacancy trading Arraez created as that gave Julian a shot at the Bigs. Otherwise the FO would probably still have him wallowing in the minors. Now if the FO can wangle a way to trade an unproductive Correa we can clear up the current infield logjam and give a couple other promising youngsters a chance to prove themselves at the major league level... and improve the lineup's batting average. Not to mention freeing up a lot of salary money for signing pitching talent.

45 minutes ago, Dman said:

No one in Minnesota liked losing Arraez and his bat was sorely missed the beginning of this season, but the team had a glut of players to plug into his position and had a great need for top of the rotation starters.  The Twins needed a Pablo type pitcher even more than keeping around one of the best hitters in the game which sounds crazy as I write this, but given Julien's OPS is currently .842 and Arraez is at .842 it sounds less crazy.  They get there in different ways but the production is close enough to cover for the lose of Arraez at least in IMO.  Don't like OPS then Julien's WRc+ is 135 and Arreaz 128.  Like War better Julien is at 2.3 and Arraez is at 3.1.  Pretty much anyway you slice it they are close enough and we didn't have anyone close to the level that Lopez is at.

Did I want the Twins to trade Arraez, No.  Do I think they made the right move Yes I do.

Feel like I could have written this myself.....if I were a better writer! 

Well said, 100% agree on all of this. 

Having Lopez on my fantasy baseball team as well this year allowed me to follow him closely. There aren't many pitchers in MLB like Pablo Lopez. 

Loved LA's ability to hit the ball anywhere at any time.

I was mixed on PL, but have since come on board.

Win/Win.

If SG leaves via FA, then Twins still have a proven guy at the top of the staff with Ryan learning more and more every day and Ober becoming that guy who defies the norms in baseball.

I am content and would do this again given the results we have.

FootNote:  Loving what Royce is doing.  

It was completely understandable why so many people were upset when Luis Arraez was traded. A fan favorite and entertaining player plus the AL Batting Champion seems like a guy to keep.

The Twins sorely needed pitching however, and despite the high risk inherent in all pitchers something needed to occur or the Twins were doomed to repeats of using guys like Archer and Bundy. Actually Bundy and Archer were better than one could have expected as shown by their current standing.  Pitching is critical to team success and starters are the most valuable of all baseball players.

I was all in with the Lopez-Arrez trade immediately. While I loved Arraez, it was obvious the Twins needed a quality starter to be a .500 team or better. It is looking like this trade was excellent for both teams which is a good thing. I'm actually hoping the Twins can pull off a similar trade during this coming offseason. Pitching is the main factor in a winning team.

32 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Now if the FO can wangle a way to trade an unproductive Correa we can clear up the current infield logjam and give a couple other promising youngsters a chance to prove themselves at the major league level... and improve the lineup's batting average. Not to mention freeing up a lot of salary money for signing pitching talent.

...Not saying you're wrong to feel that way, buuuut, you may be jumping the gun.  Just wee little bit.  Perhaps we could pause for a moment before we call for Correa's figurative head?? 

Huge fan of Arraez since he was in the lower minors.  Loved the kid and was hopeful he would remain a Twin for his entire career.  So I am saddened that Arraez is no longer leading off for the Twins.

With that said, understand the reasons the Twins made the trade and even agree with them.  Am elated that the trade has worked out so well for both teams.  The Twins will enter the playoffs this year with a real chance of winning a round or two because of the strength of their starting pitching with Lopez as their #1 guy.  Aren't those the best trades, where both teams win?  

I enjoyed the insight of seeing this Miami perspective. Thanks for the article.

I don't think we'd have seen the offensive total system failure of the 1/2 half of the season if the FO had kept Arraez and let his successful approach influence the rest of the lineup. Clearly, the organizations offensive gameplan was for 1-9 to swing for the fences without regard for anything else, so they didn't want an Arraez influence.

Thankfully, the hitters (especially the young reinforcements) seem to have taken it upon themselves to reject plan A and start approaching hitting in a more sensible way. 

Also thankfully, Lopez is an asset. Heckuva pitcher. From all accounts, a good clubhouse presence.

Might work out well for the club. Still hurts the fan in me that the FO took away my chance to root for a perennial batting champ.

Might honestly make the Twins a more winning team, but that trade made me much less a Twins fan. 

Arraez was a fan favorite for a reason. I think the vast majority of fans were sad to see him go, I was. 

But if we still had him, where are Polanco and Julien and Kirilloff and Lewis getting their at bats, especially with Buxton eating up the Lions share of DH B4 he went on the DL.

I think the anger on the trade was overstated by to create a storyline. I believe that a lot of people would have wished to have kept Arraez, but it made more sense to trade him so they could shore up a position of weakness from one they had an abundance from.

I think this is one of the rare trades that benefitted both teams and the players involved.

Looks like may be one of those rare win/win trades.  I do think we'll be better off in the long term due to Arraez's knees, but pitchers can miss a year more frequently at any time.  

So far so good for both teams.

25 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Big Luis Arraez fan.  Big Pablo Lopez fan.  It’s definitely a win/win trade for both teams, which ultimately is what is nice to see.  It makes for more willing trade partners now and in the future.  

I think we all need to notice that the Twins actually traded someone when he was at peak (or certainly nearly peak) value.  It’s a bit of a leap of faith to do that.  Too often we hang onto players until they no longer have any value and then complain that we can’t find top return for them. Good job. Let’s make more trades like that. 

I agree with most of this.  This is the textbook win/win for both organizations at this time.  You know the saying: Better to trade them a year too early than a year too late.

That being said, I think the outlook is much higher for the Twins to "win" this trade.  Arraez's knees are still a ticking time-bomb.  The Twins were able to lock up a solid 1/2 pitcher for a very reasonable contract over his prime age years.  I would also take high-end starting pitching over high-end hitting every day of the week.

Lopez reminds me of Brad Radke.  Head down, not always dominating but gives his team a chance to win every day, quietly a very good pitcher that flies under the radar.

I would do it again in a heartbeat.

We have guys that can replace Arraez, to an extent.  I like Julien at second long-term.  If he fizzles, we have guys like Lee, Martin, Schobel in the system.  The way Polanco has been playing, maybe he comes back.

It’s not hard to find a 1B that can hit a little bit.  We have a few guys in the organization, and they’re dime-a-dozen on the market.

It would be impossible for the Twins to replace Lopez.  He’s a workhorse with a sub 3.5 ERA and a million strikeouts, capable of silencing the premier lineups in the game.  He’s only 27 and locked up through 2027 at a fairly reasonable rate.

Additionally, I’m not convinced there’s going to be longevity for Arraez as the premier average hitter in the game.  He’s missed a lot of time in his career.  He doesn't hit for a ton of extra base power, and can’t play any premier defensive positions.  For some context, his career OPS is exactly .800.  Max Kepler is OPSing .803 this year.  He’s having a much better year than his career averages this year (.842 OPS, nearly 5 WAR), but is that sustainable?

Arraez is also going to have to get paid at some point, and it’s going to be significant.  I’d rather be locked in to Lopez than Arraez.

Finally, to date, Arraez’s WPA in the playoffs is -0.10.  His cWPA is -1.0%.  That’s only 5 games, but has provided negative value in the playoffs despite a pretty darn good first series against the Yankees.

Bottom line is, the drop off from Lopez to his potential replacement, is much greater than the drop off from Arraez to his replacement.

If we kept Arreaz, we probably don’t sign Solano.  He has a similar on base percentage that 2022 Arreaz had here. Lopez is a down ballot CY Young caliber player this year.  It’s not usually good business to trade a fan favorite player who is not an impending free agent.  Fans don’t like losing players they are vested in.  But I think this is an even swap for both clubs.  At this point the Twins get the edge because of the team friendly extension Lopez signed.  We probably saved 5-7 million a season after the season he is having now.  It would be cool to see one of the 2 prospects we received do anything in the show to give us a bigger edge.  

It's much easier to find above-average offensive contributors than it is to find above-average starters. With Pablo Lopez, we don't have to worry about 1/5th of the rotation for at least five years, while Solano can step in and be a key offensive contributor. I would much rather have Lopez and Solano than Chris Archer and Arraez.

1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

I don't think we'd have seen the offensive total system failure of the 1/2 half of the season if the FO had kept Arraez and let his successful approach influence the rest of the lineup. Clearly, the organizations offensive gameplan was for 1-9 to swing for the fences without regard for anything else, so they didn't want an Arraez influence.

Thankfully, the hitters (especially the young reinforcements) seem to have taken it upon themselves to reject plan A and start approaching hitting in a more sensible way. 

I'm sorry, but do you actually believe this? That the Twins front office didn't want Arraez's influence over other hitters? Or that the players have simply all taken it upon themselves to now go their own way and ignore input from the coaching staff, scouts, etc? because that's just silliness.

The current FO is the same one that promoted him from A+ to AA, then to AAA, then to MLB. They moved him from AA to MLB in the same year, and then kept rolling with him. the idea that they traded him to keep his voice out of the room is ludicrous.

They dealt Arraez not because they didn't like him, but because he had a lot of value at a position they had a lot of depth at. In order to get what they really needed (and boy did we still need pitching) we had to give up someone that was established and had real value. That's Arraez. the other option was Polanco, but Polanco's value was likely lower at the time because of the injury he'd had last season, the time he had missed, the contract he had, and being older.

It was a good trade for the Twins, even if it meant giving up a player that everyone loved. That includes the front office: they loved him too. But Pablo Lopez has been very good for us and is lined up to lead the rotation for the next several year, which is something we didn't have: an established, all-star quality starter in his prime to lead the rotation.

This was clearly a win win for both sides who dealt from positions of depth.  Miami has had some injuries and regression of other starters but they still have a lot of depth there.  We clearly have depth at infield and going into next season we will need to figure out what to do with some more that we have.  This is not a one team one a trade or lost it, and really that is what teams want. 

In May it looked like a pretty bad trade for the Twins.  Today it looks like a pretty good trade for the Twins.  It'll probably flip back and forth for a few years, as injuries or ineffectiveness plague either Lopez or Arraez. 

Arraez's knees have received numerous mentions in the comments.  That is fair.  He will  always be moderately more likely to miss time than a typical MLB 2nd baseman.

Less frequently noted though is that all MLB starting pitchers are at risk of arm problems, or sudden downturns in effectiveness.  There are a very small number of Verlanders or Scherzers who enjoy long careers of consistent pitching success.  There are many flashes in the pan, dominant for two or three years.  I hope Lopez is on the Verlander track, but if we are honest it is way too soon to know that, and the odds remain daunting.  Take a look at the Cy Young winners over the last 20 years and see all the names that were just short bursts of greatness (eg, Ray, Arrieta, Kluber, Porcello, DeGrom, Webb, etc).

Hitters, meanwhile, if they are truly great hitters (and Arraez is) tend to age well.  When you trade for a great hitter, you can project with a little more confidence.  He may end up a DH, but if Arraez has any legs left at all I'll wager he is still hitting .300 at age 34.  

I absolutely hope both players have a decade of continued success.

And Ted, thanks, this was one of the best reads on Twins Daily this year!

Great article. Win/Win trade and would do it again, especially with hindsight included. Not to mention there's a couple of guys in the minors that may tip the scales down the road. Today, both teams and fans should be happy with this trade.

On a side note. It kind of reminds me of the "what to do with Polanco" article last week. I don't remember if there were some similar articles about Arraez last fall/winter.