The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Trading Joe Ryan

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season expecting Joe Ryan to anchor their starting rotation. He was coming off his first All-Star season, had established himself as one of the American League’s top starters, and remained under team control through 2027.

Things didn't go according to plan. Ryan battled injuries and struggled during the second half of the season. He finished the year after missing time with a left glute strain. For the season, he posted a 3.79 ERA (112 ERA+) with 159 strikeouts and 31 walks over 144 2/3 innings.

Now the Twins have a decision to make. Minnesota is open to trading one of its starting pitchers this offseason, with Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo López and Dean Kremer all entering the final year of their current team-control windows. General manager Jeremy Zoll specifically discussed the possibility of turning pitching depth into help elsewhere on the roster.

That makes Ryan one of the seven biggest decisions facing the Twins this winter.

The Pros of Trading Joe Ryan

The biggest argument for trading Ryan is that the Twins need help in other areas. Minnesota has a considerable amount of starting pitching depth. Ryan, Ober, López, Kremer, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews and Mick Abel all could factor into the rotation next season. That doesn't mean all eight will be healthy or effective, but it does give Zoll something the organization desperately needs: options.

If another team values Ryan more highly than Minnesota does, the Twins could turn one starting pitcher into multiple pieces for a roster with other holes. Ryan also has significant trade appeal because of his track record. He’s been an All-Star (or borderline All-Star) for multiple seasons while averaging a 111 ERA+, 3.81 FIP, and 2.6 rWAR since 2022.  

Even after his difficult second half, opposing teams would have plenty of reasons to believe in a rebound. The Twins could also be selling before Ryan reaches free agency after the 2027 season. If Minnesota believes Ryan's value is unlikely to increase significantly over the next year, this could be the opportunity to maximize his trade value.

The Cons of Trading Joe Ryan

The obvious problem is that good starting pitching is difficult to find. Trading Ryan would remove a pitcher who has already demonstrated that he can be a quality major-league starter. Even if his 2026 season wasn't what anyone wanted, there is still a strong argument that the Twins should bet on a bounce-back campaign rather than sell low.

There is also risk in assuming that the current depth will remain intact. López and Abel are returning from elbow surgery. Prielipp has battled injuries throughout his professional career. Matthews has yet to establish himself as a consistent major-league starter. Ober continues to struggle with velocity. 

Suddenly, that impressive depth chart can look much thinner. There is another consideration: Ryan's value may not be particularly high right now. I recently noted that injuries and his second-half struggles complicated what had once been a straightforward trade decision.

Trading him simply because the Twins have too many pitchers would make little sense if the return doesn't address a significant need. The organization also needs to determine whether it is trying to compete in 2027. If the answer is yes, removing an established starter creates another problem that Zoll must solve.

What Would the Timeline Look Like?

The Twins shouldn't feel pressure to trade Ryan simply for the sake of making a move. The best opportunity could come early in the offseason, particularly if another club loses a starter in free agency or decides it needs rotation help. Minnesota can listen to offers before the market fully develops and determine whether Ryan's value is strong enough to justify a trade.

The timing of this offseason could be particularly important because the collective bargaining agreement is set to expire December 1, creating the possibility of a lockout. Zoll has already indicated that Minnesota doesn't intend to sit around waiting for the offseason to develop. 

That makes the weeks before the potential lockout especially important. If the Twins receive a significant offer, they could move Ryan before December 1. If the offers aren't compelling, there is little reason to force the issue.

Minnesota could also revisit the situation after the lockout or closer to spring training. A team could lose a starter to injury, miss out on a free agent, or decide it needs another rotation arm. Those developments could change Ryan's market. The key is patience.

Trading Joe Ryan would be one of the biggest moves Jeremy Zoll could make during his first full offseason running the Twins' baseball operations department. There are legitimate reasons to consider it. Minnesota has starting-pitching depth, Ryan has only one potential season of control remaining after 2026, and the Twins need to improve other areas of the roster.

But there are equally legitimate reasons to keep him. Ryan is only 29 years old, has already shown the ability to pitch at an All-Star level, and could be poised for a bounce-back season. Trading him after a difficult second half could also mean selling at a less-than-ideal moment.

The question isn't simply whether the Twins should trade Ryan. The bigger question is what another team would be willing to give up for him. If the return can address one of Minnesota's biggest weaknesses while maintaining the organization's ability to compete in 2027, Zoll will have a fascinating decision to make. If not, keeping Ryan and betting on a rebound might be the better path for a team that still needs quality starting pitching.

Either way, Ryan's name belongs near the top of the Twins' offseason decision list.

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Will the Twins trade Ryan this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[PuckettPond]

1st half Joe gotta go!

[GNess]

Given the Twins SP depth despite being unproven trading Ryan seems to make sense. It is unknown if Ryan would be willing to sign with the Twins on a fair market contract. (Depth = Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Ober, Matthews, Rojas, Abel etc.)

If he isn't going to sign an extension then trading him makes sense. Yes, he is coming off yet another poor second half, but there is no way to rehabilitate that feature because he has to be traded by the deadline in 2027. 

Seems. pretty straight forward needs to be done.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Depends on the return. Milwaukee and Tampa have shown trading pitching isn’t bad long term if you get a good return 

[PDX Twin]

Trade him (and some others on major-league contracts) for high-level minor leaguers who can finish preparing to be stars in St. Paul during the lockout.

[D.C Twins]

They already missed the optimal trading window. (ie when smart smaller market teams trade assets they know they will lose in FA)

A big shoulder shrug from me as to whether they trade him during the off season or deadline

[Maybe Next Year]

Good grief - the writers on Twins Daily are hell bent on trading Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and Buxton (if Buc would agree to a trade). They are also constantly writing that Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathew’s are unreliable starters. Then consider that Pablo Lopez is coming off Tommy John surgery and there is no guarantee he will be the old Lopez. Abel and Prielipp are still unproven as being reliable and who knows which Kremer will show up? Why in the world would you trade Ryan? What holes are so damn bad that you would give up a bonafide All Star starter and for what, more prospects? Stupid, just plain stupid!

[mikelink45]

Trade them all - this year we held on to the FA group and we are going to suffer for it. Don't do it again.

[Maybe Next Year]

One more observation for all the Poland’s are cheap crew. Three, yes 3, out of 6 AL playoff teams whose payrolls were lower than the Twins payroll made the playoffs. Eight teams with higher payrolls didn’t make the playoffs. How could this happen? My oh my. 
A solid farm system, excellent player development and solid coaching are the keys to a successful ball club. Not the amount of money spent on payroll. 

[GNess]

22 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Good grief - the writers on Twins Daily are hell bent on trading Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and Buxton (if Buc would agree to a trade). They are also constantly writing that Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathew’s are unreliable starters. Then consider that Pablo Lopez is coming off Tommy John surgery and there is no guarantee he will be the old Lopez. Abel and Prielipp are still unproven as being reliable and who knows which Kremer will show up? Why in the world would you trade Ryan? What holes are so damn bad that you would give up a bonafide All Star starter and for what, more prospects? Stupid, just plain stupid!

8 of the top 10 in MLB payroll qualified for the 2026 post season.

[GNess]

6 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

One more observation for all the Poland’s are cheap crew. Three, yes 3, out of 6 AL playoff teams whose payrolls were lower than the Twins payroll made the playoffs. Eight teams with higher payrolls didn’t make the playoffs. How could this happen? My oh my. 
A solid farm system, excellent player development and solid coaching are the keys to a successful ball club. Not the amount of money spent on payroll. 

8 of the top 10 in mlb payroll qualified for the post season in 2026

[LastOnePicked]

Has anybody heard of the concept of buying low and selling high? It's a pretty neat idea. Look into it if you haven't.

There has literally never been a worse time, value-wise, to trade Joe Ryan. Wasn't the whole premise of keeping Ryan and Lopez last offseason based on the idea of squeaking open this team's WC contending window for two full seasons? 

I know we're just speculating here, but if they actually do trade him this offseason, it will be proof that this organization has totally lost the plot.

[Andy MacPhail]

You can never have enough pitching. Our biggest hole for this coming season is catcher, unless someone can show me a decent catcher that we can get for Ryan; then IMO, we need to focus on a young promising MLB-ready pitcher. 

[Linus]

A major factor not mentioned is that Ryan at his new arbitration number is not nearly as valuable as before. There will be some surplus value but not nearly enough to get the haul some people expect. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

51 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Has anybody heard of the concept of buying low and selling high? It's a pretty neat idea. Look into it if you haven't.

There has literally never been a worse time, value-wise, to trade Joe Ryan. Wasn't the whole premise of keeping Ryan and Lopez last offseason based on the idea of squeaking open this team's WC contending window for two full seasons? 

I know we're just speculating here, but if they actually do trade him this offseason, it will be proof that this organization has totally lost the plot.

Depends on both the return and the other moves that are made.

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

A major factor not mentioned is that Ryan at his new arbitration number is not nearly as valuable as before. There will be some surplus value but not nearly enough to get the haul some people expect. 

The haul for Ryan has already been lost. I personally have no opinion on whether we trade him or not now. Tolle and Arias, gone.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

They already missed the optimal trading window. (ie when smart smaller market teams trade assets they know they will lose in FA)

A big shoulder shrug from me as to whether they trade him during the off season or deadline

replied to wrong post

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Good grief - the writers on Twins Daily are hell bent on trading Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and Buxton (if Buc would agree to a trade). They are also constantly writing that Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathew’s are unreliable starters. Then consider that Pablo Lopez is coming off Tommy John surgery and there is no guarantee he will be the old Lopez. Abel and Prielipp are still unproven as being reliable and who knows which Kremer will show up? Why in the world would you trade Ryan? What holes are so damn bad that you would give up a bonafide All Star starter and for what, more prospects? Stupid, just plain stupid!

Your opinion is valid (although Jeffers can't be traded because he's now a free agent), but saying that holding the opposite opinion is stupid is not valid, especially when your argument is essentially to hold together the aging core of a team that won 70 and 77 games in the last two years. 

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Good grief - the writers on Twins Daily are hell bent on trading Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and Buxton (if Buc would agree to a trade). They are also constantly writing that Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathew’s are unreliable starters. Then consider that Pablo Lopez is coming off Tommy John surgery and there is no guarantee he will be the old Lopez. Abel and Prielipp are still unproven as being reliable and who knows which Kremer will show up? Why in the world would you trade Ryan? What holes are so damn bad that you would give up a bonafide All Star starter and for what, more prospects? Stupid, just plain stupid!

Most all people on TD would like to have Ryan beyond this year, but after this year he is a FA. 

He has expressed no interest in staying here (likely wants to go West) AND we have next to zero chance of signing him as a FA. 

The question is not if he is leaving, it is what, if anything, do the Twins want to get before he goes

Again, the smart move was to trade sometime from the 2025 to the 2026 trade deadline. The difference between trading in the off season, trading at the 2027 deadline, and keeping him for the season and getting a comp pick is far more marginal and really not even worth arguing about anymore

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

See if hes open to an extension. 

If we can somehow fleece another team and get a haul for him, then fine. Do the trade. If not, just let him pitch. 

Whether we keep him or trade him, we still need to sign an Ace to lead our rotation. 

Teams that win the world series usually have a legit Ace starter, a shutdown closer, and a stud clean up hitter. We currently have none of those. 

[SteveLV]

If they weren't willing to trade Jeffers when they should have, what is different about Ryan's situation?

They should look for a trade, but will they?

[Fatbat]

Getting a great trade return for Ryan isn’t going to happen. IF a drop the pants offer came across Zolls desk, he would have to seriously consider it. But thats NOT likely.  The FO should be trying to acquire better pitching, hitting and fielding, not selling it off. Novel idea, sign Ryan and Jeffers to a contract extension.  They each could get around 6yrs/$100M on the FA market. How about just pay it and lock them up. 

[rv78]

Tough call. Trading Ryan makes TP look like he's doing a 180 from the deadline acquisitions when they added. Why go backwards now? Then again, why let Jeffers walk when they had the chance to move him for something or extend him years ago? Will they let Ryan walk after 2027 as well. Wouldn't surprise me. The main trade chips that they have outside of Ryan that I see, are.... Lewis, Larnach, Martin, Wallner, Ober. Can't see any of them bringing back much unless they package someone important to club with 'em. The Free Agent market is thin and TP has said they are spending and improving. My guess is we're going to see someone the caliber of Ryan, if not Ryan himself, get traded. It'll be interesting to see what they think is a fair return for him. It'll probably be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can't play defense.

[TL]

A best case scenario might be waiting to trade him ahead of next year’s deadline, like the Brewers and Tigers have done recently. You give the younger guys time to develop, Pablo and Abel more time to get back to full strength after injuries, and Ryan to put together a strong first half. At that point the front office can take stock and determine if there is enough SP depth to flip him for high upside prospects or a playoff need, assuming they are in contention. If out of contention then trade him for anything better than the QO pick.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

I would assume there are a team or three out there that Joe Ryan would fit nicely in their rotation, have a better chance at extending him then the Twins and give up something pretty decent. Then the Twins could use that money and some of the money they have talked about spending, and sign a pitcher to a 2 or 3 year contract. That way they get some prospects, another starter locked up for the next couple of years when the young guys hopefully have gotten better. Then they continue to spend money on holes.

It seems very like a horrible plan to go into next year with your two "best" starters FA at the end of the year and think you can trade them at the deadline, what if they are actually competing for a playoff spot, I mean really competing,, what if they get hurt again, or just aren't that good, they will have pissed away two of the best trade assets they have had in years. 

Maybe Lopez would take a two year extension jut to keep him here, Ryan won't nor should he. 

You can do two things at once, trade Ryan and sign somebody to replace him. I think the term for that is asset management,? weird concept walking and chewing gum at the same time, crazy. 

Maybea  Bieber, Rogers, Bubic or Buehler type would sign a two or three contract, 

[TroyVang]

Yes, trade him at the absolute nadir of his value. Perfect idea.

[TopGunn#22]

If the Twins thought they would be contenders in 2025 and again in 2026, I think the answer to the question "do they think they will be contenders in 2027 is pretty obvious...they do.  Are they legit contenders?  No.  But in the A.L. Central, everybody is a contender at some level.

Yes, we failed to capitalize on the deal with the Red Sox, although many have said it wouldn't have been for BOTH Arias and Tolle.  It would have been for one or the other with extra stuff included.  That's how I see it at least.  I don't think Boston would give up Arias, he's probably going to be their SS next season, but maybe Tolle would still be on the table?

And yes, Ryan had another rough 2nd half, and his value has diminished somewhat, but it is still considerable.  EVERY team in MLB would love to have a Joe Ryan in their rotation if they thought they had a legit chance at winning the World Series.  We don't have that chance, which is why a trade of Ryan soon after the World Series ends or shortly after spring training ends (whenever that is) or even at the deadline is inevitable.  

I'd be open to finding out if Pablo Lopez is interested in a 2-year, affordable contract extension with incentives to protect the team long-term.  I also would be open to trading him at the deadline if he's back to being "Pablo" for the right price.

This team needs a starting Catcher, a 1B and some bullpen help.  Those should be the focus of any trades.  If Boston is willing to give up Tolle for Ryan I'd pull the trigger.  They traded Connelly Early at this year's deadline didn't they?  I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore.  I won't pay for the site. 

But what if we offered Joe Ryan to the Padres for Catcher Luis Campusano and RP Adrian Morejon?  Maybe throw in Larnach or Lewis if we need to.  I have no idea how the values would line up.  Maybe we include one of our expendable minor league catchers.  Ty France is a free agent and Campusano is getting bumped by Ethan Salas.  Larnach would help with a strong side OF/DH platoon.  The Twins get a 28 year old catcher that would make Caratini a backup (like he should be) and a bona fide strong bullpen arm in Morejon.  If Morejon is too big of an ask (and I understand why he could be) 35 year old Jason Adam is still pitching effectively and has some closing experience.  Ask for Adam.

The Twins then have fixed the catching hole for next season and added a dependable BP arm.  Campusano and Morejon/Adam may seem too light for Joe Ryan (and maybe Larnach) but this trade fixes 2 huge problems roster-wise.  Then sign Jake Bauers or Ty France for 1B and suddenly the roster looks much better.  

Teams like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have shown you can trade useful assets and still remain competitive.  Their FO has the guts and knowledge to make critical decisions like this.  The Twins have not demonstrated this for years, but a trade of Joe Ryan, to leverage a better, more balanced roster needs to happen this off season.  The Trade deadline will be the FINAL opportunity to accomplish that.  But if something good comes along before then, they should consider it.  They could lose a lot of leverage if they wait until the deadline.  

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Good grief - the writers on Twins Daily are hell bent on trading Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and Buxton (if Buc would agree to a trade). They are also constantly writing that Bailey Ober and Zebby Mathew’s are unreliable starters. Then consider that Pablo Lopez is coming off Tommy John surgery and there is no guarantee he will be the old Lopez. Abel and Prielipp are still unproven as being reliable and who knows which Kremer will show up? Why in the world would you trade Ryan? What holes are so damn bad that you would give up a bonafide All Star starter and for what, more prospects? Stupid, just plain stupid!

I would guess there were some White Sox fans that proclaimed trading Crochett and Kopech was "just plain stupid".  No way they make the playoffs this year without those trades.  

[bean5302]

This is stupid.

Joe Ryan won't bring back any significant return. Cuts $12MM for a team that should be adding payroll, not cutting it. 

He's (at best) going to be viewed as a $25MM AAV pitcher. The QO is likely going to be gone next CBA. He's going to make $12MM. The most he'll bring back is an organizational 6-8ish guy. Certainly nobody who could be expected to help the Twins in a meaningful way. Teams don't trade quality MLB pieces for other quality MLB pieces.

 

Trading Ryan on his own makes no substantial improvement to the Twins in any way. Again, this is just plain stupid.

[Coach]

14 hours ago, GNess said:

Given the Twins SP depth despite being unproven trading Ryan seems to make sense. It is unknown if Ryan would be willing to sign with the Twins on a fair market contract. (Depth = Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Ober, Matthews, Rojas, Abel etc.)

If he isn't going to sign an extension then trading him makes sense. Yes, he is coming off yet another poor second half, but there is no way to rehabilitate that feature because he has to be traded by the deadline in 2027. 

Seems. pretty straight forward needs to be done.

We thought we had pitching depth in 2024 when we let Sonny Gray walk (18-5 in 2026).