Two of the Longest-Tenured Twins Could Be Nearing the End In Different Ways

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are going to have plenty of difficult decisions to make this winter. Some of those decisions will involve players who have struggled. Others could involve players who have actually performed well enough to make their futures more complicated. That is the situation the Twins could face with two of their longest-tenured players: Trevor Larnach and Bailey Ober.

The two players are having very different seasons. Larnach is putting together arguably the best offensive campaign of his career, while Ober has continued to struggle to find the form that once made him one of Minnesota's more dependable starters.

Yet their situations have one important thing in common. Both players are entering the final year of team control, and the Twins have to determine whether they still fit into the organization's plans for 2027.

Larnach Is Having His Best Season at an Awkward Time

It would be difficult to argue that Larnach hasn't earned another opportunity with the Twins. Through 101 games, he is hitting .272 with 19 doubles, 10 home runs, 42 RBI and a .788 OPS. He has become one of the more reliable offensive pieces in Minnesota's lineup while helping the Twins remain in the playoff picture. Even if the club did try to trade him to the Astros at the MLB trade deadline. 

That makes his situation particularly interesting. Larnach is making $4.475 million this season in his second year of arbitration. FanGraphs has valued his 2026 production at roughly $16 million, illustrating just how much value the Twins have received from him relative to his salary.

On the surface, moving on from a productive 28-year-old outfielder doesn't make much sense. The problem is that the Twins may not have an obvious place for his skill set. Minnesota controls Larnach for one more season, and his strong 2026 campaign should result in another raise through arbitration. The Twins could certainly keep him around, but that would mean committing additional money to a player who could become increasingly difficult to fit into a crowded outfield.

Outfield Roster Crunch

Emmanuel Rodriguez is out of options and will have to be on the Opening Day roster next season. Walker Jenkins is nearing his MLB debut and should be a major part of Minnesota's plans moving forward. Alan Roden, acquired at last year's trade deadline, also needs an opportunity to establish himself.

That creates a legitimate roster crunch. The Twins don't necessarily need to decide that Larnach isn't good enough. They may instead have to decide whether there is enough playing time available for him. And that's an entirely different question.

Ober's Situation Is Much More Concerning

Ober's situation doesn't come with the same level of success. He entered the season hoping to rebound from a disappointing 2025 campaign, and there have been some signs of improvement. His 4.64 ERA and 4.78 FIP are both better than the 5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP he posted last season. But the overall numbers still aren't where Minnesota needs them to be.

Ober has a 91 ERA+, a 16.1% strikeout rate and a 6.0% walk rate. More concerning is the direction his season has taken. Since throwing a complete-game shutout in May, Ober has made nine starts with an ERA approaching 6.00. His velocity has also become a major concern. Ober's average four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from 91.7 mph in 2024 to 90.3 mph in 2025 and now just 88.1 mph this season. At those velocities, he has very little margin for error.

Opposing hitters are taking advantage. His four-seam fastball has been slugged at a .542 clip this season. Two years ago, Ober generated a 22.2% whiff rate with that pitch. That number has fallen all the way to 14.8% this season. For a pitcher who has never been known for overpowering velocity, losing some of the effectiveness of his fastball is a significant problem.

Ober is also entering the final year of team control. He is making $5.2 million this season, and FanGraphs has valued his production at $7.8 million. The Twins would probably still have to pay more than that through arbitration next season, even if his struggles continue through the end of 2026.

That makes the decision more complicated than simply asking whether Ober can be useful. The Twins have to determine whether he is worth the salary and roster spot that comes with another season of control.

The Rotation Isn't Going to Get Any Less Crowded

This might ultimately be the biggest issue facing Ober. Minnesota already has several pitchers who should have strong claims to rotation spots next season. Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan, Connor Prielipp and Dean Kremer are currently part of the rotation and could remain there. Pablo López and Mick Abel are expected to return as well, assuming their recoveries progress as hoped.

Then there is Kendry Rojas, who is likely to continue developing as a starter. David Festa and Zebby Matthews also remain part of the equation. Their futures are less certain because of their respective injuries this season, but both could eventually factor into the pitching staff in some capacity. If they aren't starting, the bullpen could be an option.

Suddenly, there are a lot of names competing for a limited number of spots.  The Twins could decide they need another veteran starter. They could also decide that one of their younger pitchers is ready to take a larger role. Either scenario makes it more difficult to justify holding onto a struggling Ober simply because he has been a longtime member of the organization.

Two Different Players, One Difficult Decision

Larnach and Ober represent two very different types of offseason decisions. With Larnach, the Twins would potentially be moving on from a player who is finally putting everything together. His production is legitimate, his value is strong and he’s in the middle of his prime. But Minnesota may have younger and more highly regarded left-handed outfielders who need opportunities.

With Ober, the concern is almost the opposite. The Twins could be moving on because his performance no longer matches the expectations that come with his salary and roster spot. Neither decision would be easy.

The Twins are entering another important offseason, and the organization needs to figure out what its roster is going to look like beyond 2026. That means making difficult choices about players who have been around for a long time, even when those players have provided plenty of value.

The next chapter of the Twins is going to be younger. It is going to be built around the organization's emerging talent. And sometimes, making room for that future means saying goodbye to players who have been part of the organization for a long time.

For Larnach and Ober, this winter could be when the Twins finally have to make that call.

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Will Larnach or Ober be on the 2027 Twins roster? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I personally think Larnach becomes the primary DH but who knows.  Maybe Keaschall takes that for the majority of his games.  

[thelanges5]

I hope that Larnach can find his mojo at the plate. He’s been part of the offensive problem since the trade deadline. He’s due a raise in 2027 and it will probably be in the $7 to $8m range. Unless he shows us something different I think that money can be better spent.

Last 15 games - .160.236.280

 

[PuckettPond]

If both are on the 2027 roster the Twins are in trouble & looking to have lots of losses, an angry fan base & mean comments.

[Trov]

As someone who was calling for Larnach to be DFA last year, I am very happy with what he has done.  That being said, he is replaceable with our current roster.  He is a platoon bat, with limited defense.  He does not provide major speed, power, or defense.  He is good against RH, but nearly unplayable against lefties.  For what he might get in arbitration do they want to pay him to just be a guy hitting against RH pitchers that cannot do much more?  Doubtful being they have others that can fill that roll.  If we did not have two guys read to step in to basically fill his roll then he would be worth talking about bringing back, but he will demand too much money. 

Ober is not a guy you can count on to be a full regular rotation guy, but he can be at the back end of the rotation fill in from time to time and be possible long relief guy.  Also, we know injuries will pile up.  The article lists a lot of names, but as pointed out, many have had injuries and we know they will need to have more guys step up.  No team makes a full year with 5 starters, most need like 9. 

[Danchat]

I have to wonder if Kremer will take over Ober's spot, given their arbitration numbers should be close.

[jmlease1]

Larnach's problem for the Twins is that if he's not really mashing RHP, his value is...low. If he was better defensively, if he could hold up better against LHP, if he added more on the bases then it's easy to offer him arbitration again and find a spot for him. The more expensive you are, the more things you have to offer, or produce at higher levels consistently at the things you do best. Larnach is having a career year at the plate, and he is hitting RHP well, and well enough to be the strong-side of a platoon. But he's helpless against LHP, slow, mediocre to poor defensively, etc. (props to him for not hitting into a million DP's this season so far though). Considering the younger, cheaper, higher upside options the twins will have in 2027, it'll be tough to run him back.

Ober's problems are entirely due to a loss in velocity that just doesn't seem to be coming back. He's found a way to survive but chucking junk, and the sweeper and changeup are good enough for him to get away with it, but while his likely price isn't terrible at all even for a back end of the rotation starter, without a fastball that he can throw for strikes without getting tee'd off on consistently...he's in a tough spot. Because the lack of velocity on that fastball hurts his change. Guys can sit changeup and still catch up to the fastball. They can sit fastball and still react to the change. But when he's going, and guys are chasing that sweeper and missing the change he can mow through lineups. Just not consistently any longer, it seems.

[Althebum82]

Nice article.  Fastball speed is the only metric where Ober has underachieved expectations.  We are all learning that today's standard fastball speeds are leading to more injuries to starting pitchers.  Ober did get hurt, but came back relatively quickly.  The Twins cannot yet afford to give up on him.

Larnach has been a total surprise, and is the type of asset that has max trade value right now.  He will not be back.

[Cris E]

Their Larnach Quandary is that they don't have quality bats just sitting around to replace him. It turns out hitting is hard, rookies don't always just show up hitting and elders sometimes just go cold. Casually declaring that he can be replaced does not make it so. 

And grabbing him with a vague thought of trading him or playing him somewhere or whatever (like they did last winter) doesn't work at $15m like it does at $5m. Folks were screaming to high heaven about his presence all year while he was hitting like this, so just imagine how ticked they'll be when the DH that costs $16m only has a 120 OPS+.  

The real issues are 1. that the only truly all-star level bat is Buxton, and he misses a third or more of every season, 2. that we're transitioning to young players and they cannot be counted on until they can be counted on, and 3. pitching is its own post but it's the same point about youth being fickle and whatever. 

So they can sign Larnach instead of Bell, but they need someone who can right side DH with him. That may not be an issue if they keep Martin, but it might if they decide Rodan is the fourth OF instead of Martin. Maybe Gabby G is ready, but probably not. And trading him away won't net much because he really isn't a power guy so you're mostly only getting meh OF defense and and left side doubles power.   I'd rather have Arreaz at $12m. 

[Twins GFP]

I could go either way on Larnach right now. Has he truly figured it out at the plate? Can he turn himself into a capable defensive outfielder? He has outplayed his salary this year and can realistically do so next year.

Cheap, big league SP is such a hard thing to find in today's game, even SP4/5s. Ober has shown success in the past. If the Twins think that the AAA guys might usurp him next(?) year, his future may be in a long relief type roll. While I could easily see the Twins keep him next year, moving him would not be a huge surprise.

[FlyingFinn]

I don't think Larnach or Ober will be on the Twins in 2027. The Twins need to improve defensively and with overall team speed. We may sacrifice a little hitting at first, but it's time for Jenkins and Rodriguez in 2027. Ober has some injury history in his past. With Lopez coming back, I think he will be traded in the off-season.

[Cris E]

Ober is remaking himself into Jamie Moyer, but it's important to remember that Jamie Moyer was a career 103 ERA+ pitcher who gave up the most HR in MLB history, and by a fair margin.  He pitched forever, had four years with WAR above 4, but most of the time was just above replacement (12 years above 2.0 WAR, 11 years below 1.0 WAR and two years in between.)

Bailey Ober can pitch in the majors, but he's never going to be much better than a #4/5 and we have better options than that queued up in St Paul.  He'd be a good insurance policy if he were cheap, but you don't pay 30-somethings $6m to hang out in AAA as your seventh starter. There are teams that need arms to throw out there and he can get as many innings as he wants from them, but MN is better than that and he'll need to move on to get innings.

[terrydactyls]

FanGraphs must be owned by the players union.  It put a $8M price tag on Ober and a $16M price tag on Larnach.  Ober is an extra starter on a starting pitching staff that ranks near the bottom of MLB.  And Larnach is a mid-range outfielder (who should NOT be on the field when the Twins are on defense)  That's a $24M value(?) on two players that may both be DFA'd when the season ends.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

30 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Nice article.  Fastball speed is the only metric where Ober has underachieved expectations.  We are all learning that today's standard fastball speeds are leading to more injuries to starting pitchers.  Ober did get hurt, but came back relatively quickly.  The Twins cannot yet afford to give up on him.

Larnach has been a total surprise, and is the type of asset that has max trade value right now.  He will not be back.

Ober's velocity is rapidly decreasing.  Right now Obers size seems to be as much of a detriment as an advantage as the body appears to be breaking down.  His quality starts have begun to decline later in the season.  My guess is the Twins will not give him arbitration

 

[Andy MacPhail]

We need all the pitching we can get. Ober provides MLB innings & who knows, his velo may return. Larnach is expendable, yet I wouldn't trade Larnach unless we can get a good return.

[tony&rodney]

The decisions will come down to how many DH players the team chooses to carry and how many #5 starting pitchers are needed. The fact that both are still around tells us that the Twins either really like both of these players or that decisions are hard to make for the front office.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The decisions will come down to how many DH players the team chooses to carry and how many #5 starting pitchers are needed. The fact that both are still around tells us that the Twins either really like both of these players or that decisions are hard to make for the front office.

Who are you considering a #5 type pitcher - Ober?   The Twins should have one of the stronger rotations next year with ample upside.   

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

So they can sign Larnach instead of Bell, but they need someone who can right side DH with him. That may not be an issue if they keep Martin, but it might if they decide Rodan is the fourth OF instead of Martin. Maybe Gabby G is ready, but probably not. And trading him away won't net much because he really isn't a power guy so you're mostly only getting meh OF defense and and left side doubles power.   I'd rather have Arreaz at $12m. 

I think Keaschall could effectively be that RH bat that also plays in a corner outfield spot against righties.  Martin or an equivalent RH bat could take Keaschall's spot in the field when he's at DH.  That would basically leave you a Martin/Larnach DH platoon, only Martin does the fielding for Keaschall.  That would, I think, maximize the skillsets of all three of those players.  It would also leave the other two outfield spots for, say, Buxton and Jenkins.  If Buxton is out, then Jenkins can slide over to center and you can work Roden/Emma/whomever else in with Martin.  That could be one way to slide the current pieces together while retaining Larnach.

Looking at it this way, Roden and Emma sure start to look redundant.  

[DJL44]

If they trade Joe Ryan they’ll keep Bailey Ober.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I would keep either/both over bringing in a one-year veteran in their roles, which has happened for years on end. I'd be even more confident in this strategy if I believed the Twins would let a young player push them aside if they struggle.

[Road trip]

You can never have too much starting pitching depth.  If a reasonable salary agreement can be achieved I suspect Ober may be back next year.  I trust nobody on this staff to remain healthy in 2027.

Larnach or Bell, choose one for next year's DH.  Or arguably less than one if financial resources need to go elsewhere.  DH is the easiest spot to fill on the roster, and Larnach is a liability in the outfield who will only get slower as time passes.  

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they trade Joe Ryan they’ll keep Bailey Ober.

You might be right but they would still have Lopez / Bradley / Kremer / Prielipp / Abel / Matthews / Rojas / Paredes and maybe Festa.  Abel was very good before going down.  Prielipp looks like he belongs and Rojas is finding his command.  If Rojas improves his command, he has to be in the rotation.  Even if they trade Ryan, they have 4 veterans if Ober stays.  That normally would be good but not when 3 or of these young guys look to have considerably more upside than Ober. 

[HerbieFan]

I'd try and trade Larnach for a reliever.  Someone like, oh I don't know, Bryan Abreau.  :)

If Ober's decline in velo had levelled off I'd feel better.  But it seems to be continuing.  I just don't know how you bring him back b/c of that.