Phillies 7, Twins 5: This One Might Have Done It

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika- Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 52 Strikes, 58.4%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (18), Kody Clemens (21)
Bottom 3 WPA: Andrew Morris (-0.58), Byron Buxton (-0.19), Ryan Jeffers (-0.11)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

For the eighth or ninth time, the Twins' season is on life support. After creeping above .500 with a win in Seattle, the team has gone 4-9, which hasn't impacted their place in the standings as much as it should, but has made winning 82-84 games a lot trickier. Perhaps no team out of the Twins, Detroit, Texas, Cleveland or Toronto ends up with a .500 record, but betting on that seems a risky proposition as non-contending teams start to phone in the rest of the season.

The Phillies dominated the first two games of the series, despite not starting Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez. The weakness of the team is their reliance on the struggling Aaron Nola (who shoved in the Field of Dreams game) and Sunday's starter, Andrew Painter, both with ERAs well north of 5.00.

It appeared that Painter might wriggle out of trouble in the first inning. He walked Trevor Larnach on four pitches, then fell behind Byron Buxton, but he induced a double-play grounder from the highly compromised Buxton. Fortunately, Josh Bell and Kody Clemens singled and Royce Lewis walked, bringing up Brooks Lee with the bases juiced. He nearly homered on a sweeper but was a hair out front. He then got a harder slider on 1-2 and smashed it into the right-field overhang for a grand slam.

Dean Kremer started for the Twins, and his afternoon started with Kyle Schwarber launching a 3-1 fastball off the wall in right-center field for a double. But Kremer settled in (despite falling behind a lot of hitters early), retiring Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper on weak flyouts before Luis Arraez lined out to Clemens at second base for the third out.

Kremer mixed his pitches well, giving roughly equal time to each of his five pitches while staying out of the middle of the zone. He got through the first four innings with 56 pitches, four strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

Perhaps jealous of Lee (they tend to homer in the same games for some reason), Clemens homered in the third, a no-doubter to the pavilion in right field off a fat fastball from Painter. He has hit .106 since his historic game-winning grand slam against Kansas City, so it was good to see him square up the ball and get rewarded.

The Phillies staged a rally in the sixth. Schwarber led off with a walk. Stott singled, and Harper drew another walk. Arraez dribbled a ball to second to score the Phillies' first run, but Clemens did convert the first out of the inning. Alas, Alec Bohm then tomahawked a splitter at the top of the zone for a three-run homer to trim the Twins' lead to one. That spelled the end of the day for Kremer, with Kody Funderburk coming on to record the final two outs of the inning.

The teams traded zeroes for a spell, but with Andrew Morris on the bump in the eighth, the Phillies got to work. With one out, Harper singled. Arraez laced a ball to deep left that bounced off of Austin Martin's glove. A fan touched the ball, so it was ruled a ground-rule double, but Martin appeared to hurt himself on the play and had to leave the game with what the team called a left hamstring strain. Bohm then blooped a ball to shallow right field. It landed between Lewis and Keaschall, allowing Harper to tie the game. The Twins elected to walk Brandon Marsh to bring up the struggling J.T. Realmuto with the bases loaded; the game (and perhaps the season) on the line. Morris got him to pop up on a 3-2 pitch, but Bryan De La Cruz slapped a single the opposite way to score two runs.

The Twins had the tying run on in their half of the eighth, and Brooks Lee served a ball up the middle that Stott made a diving stop on. He flipped to second, where Lewis was possibly safe, but he overran the bag and was tagged out trying to scamper back, a crucial baserunning blunder with the hot-hitting Keaschall due up next.

Facing dear old friend Jhoan Duran in the ninth, Caratini drew a one-out walk, and Kaelen Culpepper worked a great at-bat before singling on the ninth pitch to bring up Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers struck out after being ahead 3-0, and Buxton predictably struck out to end the game. He's just not himself right now.

Stuff I'm Tracking:

• Buxton looks rough, grounding into a rare (for him) double play despite being ahead in the count in the first; striking out on a ball at his eyes in the third; and swinging through a slider with runners on the corners in the fourth. He would later ground out weakly before his game-ending K in the ninth.
• The Twins couldn't get Painter included in the Jhoan Duran trade last year, opting for Mick Abel instead. Of course, Abel is hurt, but Painter looks more like a bullpen weapon at this point of his career, as he has allowed an .835 OPS against in his big-league career thus far.
• Victor Caratini has become a problem. His at-bats are non-competitive and he wasted both ABS challenges in the sixth in this one. Alex Jackson is now on the waiver wire, and I feel like he would be more productive as the backup catcher at this point. But Jackson has less of a track record, and the Twins owe Caratini $7 million next year with Jeffers (presumably) signing elsewhere.

I sure hope Vahn Lackey develops quickly.
 

What’s Next: The Twins welcome the Atlanta Braves to Target Field for a three-game set. Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA) opposes Martín Pérez (8-6, 2.96 ERA) in a must-win series against a formidable National League opponent. Pérez hasn't allowed a run since July, as he continues to oscillate between being a borderline All-Star and being out of the league. Ober has animorphed into Chris Young, and we'll just have to continue seeing how that goes.

Postgame Interviews: Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Morris	18	0	0	23	28	69
Adams	0	42	0	0	0	42
Hoffman	24	0	0	17	0	41
Minter	9	0	0	12	14	35
Rogers	0	10	0	0	16	26
Funderburk	0	0	0	16	4	20
Nance	0	16	0	0	0	16
Gomez	11	0	0	0	0	11

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[TheLeviathan]

Rough series.  They've got 3 with the Braves and 3 with the Padres.  Things might look pretty bleak by the time we hit September 1st at this rate and the way we play against the NL.

They pretty much have to go 3-3 or it's time to stop even pretending this team is in the mix.  WC standings be damned because our strength of schedule is not to our advantage at this point.

[thelanges5]

4-10 in August, sure seems like they are headed in the wrong direction. They were 58-67 this time last year. ATL and SD next so it doesn’t get any easier. 
 

Gleeman:

Derek Shelton said Austin Martin has a left hamstring strain and will go for imaging to determine the severity.

[Saxophone Joe]

I’m tired, boss. Reminds me of the gut punch walk off loss last year to the Dodgers, just a few weeks later. 

So, is Buxton going to set the MLB record for fewest RBIs with 25+ homers? IIRC Wallner set the record for fewest RBI w/20+ homers. Tough to watch him come up short time and time again in big situations this year. 

Curious how the postgame vibes are in the locker room? Yikes…

That at-bat by Culpepper though! Wow.

Put Martin on the IL. Jenkins time. 

[Saxophone Joe]

Also, when was the last time Buck grounded into a double play? At least a year? Wasn’t even that close either…definitely concerning. 

[Aggies7]

It feels like it’s over. Phillies were reeling before this and they came in and took it to us. Sad. Worst loss of the season.

[tony&rodney]

Victor Caratini was so good when Ryan Jeffers was out/ on the IL. Whatever he looks out of it at times. He walked in the 9th inning but did not take second base on indifference or a wild pitch, which was really poor. 

Jeffers was hitting for a while but that at bat in the 9th inning was pathetic. He was given three pitches in a row basically on a tee but tried to hit each about 500 feet when a double in the RC alley scores two runs. Buxton tried to make us all forget that poor PA by showing everyone why he belongs on the IL until he is healthy.

There is another game tomorrow but today was more discouraging than the previous two routes.

[Saxophone Joe]

I blinked and missed Shelty’s 69-second postgame presser. ☠️💀

[thelanges5]

Zoll said on Inside Twins earlier today that they are stretching out Anderson, Rojas, and Marquez at AAA. Ryan has been throwing on flat ground and may do a bullpen this upcoming week. 

[PuckettPond]

Good thing Twins were buyers not sellers this trade deadline. The proof is in the pudding. Giving up Dasan Hill for Hoffman feels wrong. If the Twins were smart they would be positioning the team for 2029 World Series not 2026 dumpster diving. So frustrating to keep the team below average & read comments the sky is blue when there is a down pour.

[LewFordLives]

"A fan touched the ball, so it was ruled a ground rule double..."

In fairness, the ball bounced into the stands, hit a guy and bounced back into the field. It would have been a ground rule double irregardless of whether the fan touched it or not.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton not healthy, but we cannot possibly call up Jenkins or Rodriguez..... Actually, if Martin is hurt, I expect Rodriguez. 

Pretty disappointing since the trade deadline. Very, actually..

[LewFordLives]

Without reliable starting pitching this organization is going nowhere. Whatever happened to the vaunted Falvey pitching pipeline?

This team certainly has a lot of other deficiencies, but good starting pitching can make a bad team into a great team.

[East Coast Twin]

The Twins experienced both the Field of Dreams and a nightmarish series this weekend.

[jkcarew]

And this a team that we worry about where young guys with high upside fit? Even if you’ve been brainwashed into thinking this is a pennant chase, you’d have to admit winning 4 of every 14 probably isn’t going to be enough.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, East Coast Twin said:

The Twins experienced both the Field of Dreams and a nightmarish series this weekend.

They got stomped on both sides of the ball.

[thelanges5]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Buxton not healthy, but we cannot possibly call up Jenkins or Rodriguez..... Actually, if Martin is hurt, I expect Rodriguez. 

Pretty disappointing since the trade deadline. Very, actually..

They’ll probably go get Jorge Soler 😬

[Vanimal46]

This series was the dagger. They showed more fight than I thought this season, but regression is taking over. 

 

[jkcarew]

Buxton absent or awful since June 15. There’s a reason. There’s been a reason virtually every single season of his career. And yet it continues to be an excuse for the team struggling down the stretch every single year. Insanity.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This series sucked, and this game was a gut punch. 

Also, hard to read knee jerk reactions/comments after a loss. But yeah, if Buxton is not able to run or play cf, he should be shut down. I'd very much be ok with both Jenkins and Rodriguez up at this point too. We are past the point now that players would keep their rookie status for the start of next year if that's a problem, and I'd like to see some of the younger guys who they are going to build with get some run together.

[1985Fan]

This loss was especially tough to watch. Looked like they got complacent at the plate after Clemons homer. No hits from the 4th until Culpepper single in the 9th (very nice AB! Give the rookie credit for not giving up). Bad fielding, bad baserunning, and poor pitching. Too many walks to the Phillies with a lead. Like Prielipp yesterday, Kremer fell apart in the 6th and should have been pulled before the Bohm AB. 
Put a fork in em, they’re done. I was against calling up the young guys, but not after today’s fiasco. Put Martin and Buxton on the IL and call up Jenkins and Rodriguez. If this kind of play continues, make some more changes to get Sabato and Wallner up here too. 

[djvang]

28 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

I blinked and missed Shelty’s 69-second postgame presser. ☠️💀

Didn't want to answer for the 6th inning. 

[LastOnePicked]

It's over. A bit of poetry from the baseball gods that it was our former closer who slammed the door.

I like that they tried proving us skeptics wrong for awhile there. That was fun.

[SteveLV]

Please face reality and bring up some youngsters and get them some MLB experience.

They were dreaming at the trade deadline, and now they must wake up.  Too late to recoup the lost assets for players like Jeffers who will now disappear with no compensation, but at least don't fall into the sunk cost fallacy and keep running these aging no-hope Vets out there.

Play for 2027 now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

7 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

This loss was especially tough to watch. Looked like they got complacent at the plate after Clemons homer. No hits from the 4th until Culpepper single in the 9th (very nice AB! Give the rookie credit for not giving up). Bad fielding, bad baserunning, and poor pitching. Too many walks to the Phillies with a lead. Like Prielipp yesterday, Kremer fell apart in the 6th and should have been pulled before the Bohm AB. 
Put a fork in em, they’re done. I was against calling up the young guys, but not after today’s fiasco. Put Martin and Buxton on the IL and call up Jenkins and Rodriguez. If this kind of play continues, make some more changes to get Sabato and Wallner up here too. 

I’m right with you. I just did a blog post about getting some of our young guys some playing time this year. If Buxton and Martin are hurt, put them on the IL and call up Jenkins and Emma. DFA Kriedler and call up Ben Ross. Put Ross at second base and make Clemens the UTL. Sit Bell and give DH ABs to one of the young guys or to Clemens so Ross can play. Bring up Rojas, put him in the rotation, and put Ober in the bullpen. This team made a nice run by playing above their talent level, but that is now over. They are going to go, 1 – 5 or 2 – 4 against Atlanta and San Diego. Let’s get up these other guys and see if they can play.

[Peter]

Brutal brutal brutal loss!!! But season is not over-15 games with division will be make or break but honestly twins are going to win division-if they lose in playoffs so what!!! Future is bright and another World Series championship will happen!!!

[jkcarew]

18 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

at least don't fall into the sunk cost fallacy and keep running these aging no-hope Vets out there.

I’d say many of the Twins veterans would be fine in the right roster/situation. Larnach, Clemens, Martin, maybe even guys like Caratini and Bell, etc. The problem is that you can’t have an entire daily lineup of average-ish players and expect anything more than average results. One star can’t be counted on, especially ours. You have to pick your spots and try to develop a couple of stars. You have to dip your toe into the unknown to have a chance to break through to something meaningful. And you can’t let the fear that you’ll get worse before you get better (often you do) paralyze you from at least trying to get to actual goodness.

[1985Fan]

5 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I’m right with you. I just did a blog post about getting some of our young guys some playing time this year. If Buxton and Martin are hurt, put them on the IL and call up Jenkins and Emma. DFA Kriedler and call up Ben Ross. Put Ross at second base and make Clemens the UTL. Sit Bell and give DH ABs to one of the young guys or to Clemens so Ross can play. Bring up Rojas, put him in the rotation, and put Ober in the bullpen. This team made a nice run by playing above their talent level, but that is now over. They are going to go, 1 – 5 or 2 – 4 against Atlanta and San Diego. Let’s get up these other guys and see if they can play.

Gray, Fedko, Rogers, Go, Orze, and maybe Raya could all be DFA’d before Kreidler. He’s a solid backup SS until Either Culpepper takes over or Houston is ready. He’s also very good in the OF off the bench. Clemons and Caratini have cratered to show they’re , at best, bench players. Relying on Caratini as the primary catcher next year is not wise. He looks wore out. But yeah, let’s open the roster and start using the tram from St.Paul to Target Field. 

[DJL44]

The clock struck midnight and Dean Kremer turned back into Dean Kremer. It was fun to watch while it lasted.

Emmanuel Rodriguez might actually be healthy at the right time for a change.

[thelanges5]

Theo Tollefson:

Catcher Alex Jackson has cleared through waivers with the Twins and has been out righted to Triple-A St. Paul.