Has Austin Martin Been Exposed?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

For the first month and a half of the season, Austin Martin looked like one of the biggest success stories on the Twins roster. From Opening Day through the middle of May, Martin batted .333 and reached base seemingly every night. He drew more walks than strikeouts, posted a contact rate around 90%, and quickly established himself as one of the toughest hitters in baseball to get out. It wasn't just a nice story. It earned him a bigger role.

With Matt Wallner struggling early in the season, Martin forced his way into everyday playing time in the Twins outfield. The former first-round pick was finally looking like the offensive catalyst the organization had hoped for when they acquired him. Lately, though, the production has disappeared.

Over the last two and a half weeks, Martin is just 8-for-59, good for a .136 batting average. The plate discipline that fueled his breakout has also taken a step backward. After drawing walks at an elite rate for much of April and early May, Martin has drawn just two walks during that stretch despite remaining in the lineup almost every day.

Quite frankly, he has looked like a completely different player. So what exactly is going on?

There are probably a couple of different explanations. The first is fairly straightforward: the Twins aren't seeing nearly as many left-handed pitchers anymore. During the first 22 games of the season, Minnesota faced 13 left-handed starting pitchers. That's an absurd number, and one that happened to play directly into Martin's strengths.

Even with his recent slump, Martin is still hitting .295 against left-handed pitching this season. More impressively, he’s drawn 16 walks while striking out only eight times against southpaws. Before he became an everyday player, Martin was largely deployed in favorable matchups against lefties. As his hot streak continued, the Twins expanded his role and began playing him against virtually everyone.

The problem is that right-handed pitching has been a much different story. Martin is hitting just .243 against righties this year, and his ability to get on base has taken a significant hit. As Minnesota's schedule has shifted toward more right-handed starters, the weaknesses in his offensive profile have become more noticeable. That doesn't explain everything, but it's certainly part of the equation.

The second reason is a little more concerning. While Martin's season-long plate discipline numbers still look excellent, the underlying trends suggest he's started drifting away from the approach that made him successful in the first place.

His overall chase rate remains extremely low at roughly 18%, but that number has been climbing steadily over the past few weeks. More importantly, pitchers appear to have identified a specific weakness and have begun attacking it aggressively. Martin has struggled badly against pitches below the strike zone. His whiff rates on pitches that miss down-and-away and down-and-in are staggering, sitting at 71% and 63%, respectively.

Pitchers have increasingly challenged him with breaking balls and off-speed offerings in those locations, and Martin hasn't consistently shown he can lay off them. Troublingly, too, he seems to have a pretty grooved swing: his contact rate is above-average within the zone but below-average outside it. Normally, you see that from power hitters—guys with big bat speed and a knack for pulling the ball in the air. Martin isn't that kind of player, so not being able to make contact outside the zone applies extra pressure to keep his swing decisions immaculate.

To Martin's credit, he's aware adjustments are being made.

"I've been getting attacked differently," Martin said Monday night, after a game in which he snapped an 0-for-18. "And it's on me to adjust to that."

That's often how the game works. Martin spent the first six weeks of the season making pitchers pay for mistakes, but opposing teams eventually adjusted. Now, the challenge is making a counter-adjustment of his own. Martin believes the answer is staying committed to the process, rather than overhauling everything.

"I definitely can feel the fact I haven't been on first base in a while," he said. "But at the end of the day, it's just a matter of not getting away from my approach."

That mindset is probably the right one. Slumps happen. A rough two-and-a-half-week stretch doesn't automatically erase everything he accomplished during the first six weeks of the season. Still, it's fair to wonder whether expectations got a little ahead of reality. What if Martin isn't an everyday player? What if he's simply an extremely valuable platoon bat who thrives against left-handed pitching but struggles to provide the same production against righties?

To some extent, that was the narrative around him entering the season, but his hot start put that to bed (at least temporarily). However, it now feels like a question that’s worth asking again.

That doesn't mean the Twins have reached any conclusions. Martin still has plenty of time to turn things around, and this may be simply a cold stretch that will be forgotten by the end of the summer. But something has to change. The version of Martin the Twins saw in April was an impact player who consistently pressured opposing pitchers and found ways to reach base. The version they've seen recently hasn't provided nearly enough offensive production to justify everyday at-bats.

With several left-handed-hitting outfield options continuing to perform in the minors, playing time against right-handed pitching could become harder to come by if the struggles continue. The good news for Martin is that the ball is still in his court. The league has adjusted, and now it’s his turn.

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[Linus]

This was inevitable. Pitchers just aren’t going to walk him when he doesn’t really pose a power threat. I’m surprised it took this long for pitchers to just start filling the zone. I would expect that he stabilizes and he will end up being a useful platoon guy. 

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Linus said:

This was inevitable. Pitchers just aren’t going to walk him when he doesn’t really pose a power threat. I’m surprised it took this long for pitchers to just start filling the zone. I would expect that he stabilizes and he will end up being a useful platoon guy. 

It's a team of platoon guys so he fits right in.

[DJL44]

“Martin is hitting just .243 against righties this year”

.243 is above league average 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Martin has value at the MLB level. The real question is whether that value is as a starter or 4th outfielder. I don't think any of us thought he would hit even 15 HRs a year, so his value has to come from getting on base and playing good defense. The defense appears to be there. He's a starter it he can get his batting average to around .280 with a .350 OBP, a 4th OF if those numbers are closer to .250/.325. I still bet on the former, but I could see him being the latter. Both are valuable.

I do think the Twins are doing exactly what they should do with Martin this year. Play him and see what we have. That means playing him through slumps for awhile to see if he can come out of them. Same for Lee, same for Keaschall.  We did the same thing with Lewis and Wallner but they could never come out of their slumps so they did the right thing and sent them down. It looks like Lewis may be back sometime in June. On the pitching side, same thing with Morris, Prielipp, Matthews, Gomez, Orze, Lawyerson, Klein, Adams, and with  Rojas and Abel when they come back. This is an evaluation year. It's going to have its ugly moments but we have to go through this to find out what we've got.

 

[DJL44]

His batting average has stabilized right at his xBA. 

Martin doesn’t chase, he squares up pitches, doesn’t strike out often. He has enough speed to steal a base. He also has low exit velocity and little power. His outfield defense has finally matched up with his athletic ability.

He is an excellent 4th outfielder who has been pushed into a starting role due to injury and ineffectiveness of the other outfielders on the roster.

[JD-TWINS]

27 minutes ago, Linus said:

This was inevitable. Pitchers just aren’t going to walk him when he doesn’t really pose a power threat. I’m surprised it took this long for pitchers to just start filling the zone. I would expect that he stabilizes and he will end up being a useful platoon guy. 

Based on my eye test and the comments from the article, the opposing pitchers aren’t filling the strike zone - Martin is swinging and missing (not getting hits) on pitches down and away as well as down & in & more on pitches up……. His discipline is waning …….his discipline at the top of the zone (out of the zone up) - is not as good.

IMO, “expectations” should have never been his peak of .333 BA & .450 OBP ……… he’s a .265+ hitter with little power but, hopefully, a .350 OBP guy. Good defense (at least, better all the time).

[Taildragger8791]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

“Martin is hitting just .243 against righties this year”

.243 is above league average 

It's an empty average with zero power. On BR I'm seeing his current line is .236/.302/.302 against righties.

[NYCTK]

As someone that was probably the biggest Martin hater on this website I want to offer a mea culpa. 

His defense, while not stellar, has proven competent enough to prove he's greater than just a replacement level player. He'll never hit for power, but his contact is good enough to expect league average, or just under league average, value with the bat. That with league fine defense in OF is worth a bench/platoon spot. 

The Twins should make sure they don't use his remaining option this season and he will still have that valuable flexibility next season in the event they are actually competing. 

 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

“Martin is hitting just .243 against righties this year”

.243 is above league average 

Sometimes we forget this ain't 2001

[DataNerd]

Martin had huge platoon splits last year as well, so it isn't as if this is something new.  If one of Wallner/Roden/Jenkins/ERod was available/not awful, he probably doesn't get nearly as many PAs against RHP and the overall results look much better.

He's a valuable guy to pair with Larnach, who is a below-replacement level player against LHP but hits righties well.  While Martin is the short side of the platoon, there aren't enough guys like him in the league for as many guys who can't hit lefties to platoon them all, so he has value.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

“Martin is hitting just .243 against righties this year”

.243 is above league average 

Welcome to Bizarro Lake Wobegon, where everybody is below average.

[rdehring]

As I read this Martin crashed into the right field wall and is being checked out by the trainer.  Looks like he is going to stay in the game, maybe?  Twins sure don't need any more injuries.  

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

Martin had huge platoon splits last year as well, so it isn't as if this is something new...

Too small of a sample size to take anything away from it. He only had 52 PA vs. lefties, and there are reasons to look at his big results vs. lefties as unsustainable.

[Andy MacPhail]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

His batting average has stabilized right at his xBA. 

Martin doesn’t chase, he squares up pitches, doesn’t strike out often. He has enough speed to steal a base. He also has low exit velocity and little power. His outfield defense has finally matched up with his athletic ability.

He is an excellent 4th outfielder who has been pushed into a starting role due to injury and ineffectiveness of the other outfielders on the roster.

It seems like he's making good contact but right at someone. 

I used to think that there's very little difference between the cOFs. So why does Larnach doesn't want to play RF? There must be a difference. So now focusing on a new RF position & Buck isn't beside him to help him might be distracting his hitting. Yet he's been doing very well in RF.

[bean5302]

Martin was never going to sustain a 20.0% walk rate or a .387 BABIP given the thin line drive rates. Things are just regressing to where they should be. His xwOBA and actual OBA are right in line with each other now. Just have to see if he can sustain the overall line now or if it'll fade a bit more back to where it was in 2024.

Just like Brooks Lee's xwOBA which is a dismal .272 suggests he's in for a world of regression.

It takes 300 PA or so before things really get to a sample size large enough to feel some comfort. Lee's production through 225 is surprising considering the limitations in his plate approach and batted ball data.

[stringer bell]

Regression to the mean is a statistical fact of life. It is bad news for Martin and Larnach, but good news for Bell and Caratini. I really hoped that Martin had taken a big enough step forward to be considered s regular, but his performance has been down substantially. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Regression to the mean is a statistical fact of life. It is bad news for Martin and Larnach, but good news for Bell and Caratini. I really hoped that Martin had taken a big enough step forward to be considered s regular, but his performance has been down substantially. 

Except I think this is who Bell is now....

As for Martin, I thought maybe he'd taken a step forward... And maybe he has. We'll know more in a few months. 

[bean5302]

Josh Bell is in decline based on his historical pattern. His actual results this year are close to what you'd expect. Based on a 20% quintile Excellent/Good/Average/Below Average/Poor 1-5 scale, whatever you want to call it red/pink/gray/lt blue/blue.

Red/pink gives way to pink/blue. His walk rates have declined, his power has declined, exit velos... all the signs are there. Doesn't mean he won't rebound a little in production, but considering he hasn't had actual results much above MLB average since 2022, I think it's a little optimistic to expect much from him.

 

[Nshore]

You make it sound so.... so dirty.

As another commenter has said, the greatest value of this year is to find out what they have.  The Twins' fate of Martin, Wallner, SWR, and Lewis among others is being decided.

I've always liked Martin.  He has that "intangible"  that can't be measured by stats.  I hope he ends up being at least a 4th outfielder.

  

[Brandon]

On the plus side eventually Martin will be moved to backup and Outman will be out the door and we start bringing up the Rookies (Fedko, Gonzales, Jenkins, and ERod). Or we can bring Wallner back for a last shot.  We have options.  

[Nshore]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Josh Bell is in decline based on his historical pattern. His actual results this year are close to what you'd expect. Based on a 20% quintile Excellent/Good/Average/Below Average/Poor 1-5 scale, whatever you want to call it red/pink/gray/lt blue/blue.

Red/pink gives way to pink/blue. His walk rates have declined, his power has declined, exit velos... all the signs are there. Doesn't mean he won't rebound a little in production, but considering he hasn't had actual results much above MLB average since 2022, I think it's a little optimistic to expect much from him.

 

Bad signing from day one.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Bad signing from day one.

Mediocre DH is not something a team in this position should be signing. Agreed. And he's not even been that. 

[HeresWaldo]

Austin Martin was and remains a perfectly useful major leaguer. It's on us as fans if we thought he was going to sustain his hot start. The great eye is probably real but he has no power so his walk rate is probably never going to be elite because pitchers dont fear him. When he was on a hot streak in April he had a BABIP of .373, which obviously wasn't sustainable. In May his BABIP was .269, which is closer to the real him but somewhat unlucky. He's also been extremely unlucky to start this month. Put it all together and he's got a BABIP of .301 for the season and a corresponding WRC+ around league average, which seems about right for a guy with good contact skills, a good eye, and zero power. I do expect his WRC+ to fall a bit more just because his high early walk rate likely wasn't sustainable and hasn't fully normalized yet, but as long as he keeps it north of 90 he can be a good defensive useful player. His overall results are probably about right for the real him, it's just all been hot and cold streaks instead of evenly distributed production.

The good news is an average-ish bat with a decent glove can hold down the spot for a while, and somewhere down the line he can be a great platoon/bench player.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

On the plus side eventually Martin will be moved to backup and Outman will be out the door and we start bringing up the Rookies (Fedko, Gonzales, Jenkins, and ERod). Or we can bring Wallner back for a last shot.  We have options.  

Yup, keep cycling through them.  Give Martin some run till July or so to see if he can rebound.  Find out if he's a starter or a backup.  It's a 85+ loss team regardless.

And old friend Royce is absolutely on fire with the Saints, so I expect him to get another shot in a couple of weeks.  There are no shortage of placeholders who can be removed from the current roster, be it Outman, Arcia, Bell, or someone else.

[Nshore]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Yup, keep cycling through them.  Give Martin some run till July or so to see if he can rebound.  Find out if he's a starter or a backup.  It's a 85+ loss team regardless.

And old friend Royce is absolutely on fire with the Saints, so I expect him to get another shot in a couple of weeks.  There are no shortage of placeholders who can be removed from the current roster, be it Outman, Arcia, Bell, or someone else.

Remove Outman??  Now you're talking crazy!