With the Taj Bradley Deal, Twins Might Have Fleeced the Rays Again

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

It's not often that a team can say it got the better of the Tampa Bay Rays in a trade. Around baseball, that front office has built a reputation for being a step ahead; squeezing value out of every move; and rarely, if ever, coming out on the losing end of a deal. Yet, the Minnesota Twins may have done it not once, but twice in a span of four years.

Back at the 2021 trade deadline, the Twins were staring down a lost season and made the decision to move on from franchise icon Nelson Cruz. In return, they acquired a relatively under-the-radar pitching prospect in Joe Ryan. At the time, Ryan was intriguing, but far from a sure thing—more of a fringe top-100 prospect than a headline return. What followed could not have gone better for Minnesota. Cruz struggled to make a significant impact in Tampa Bay, while Ryan quickly blossomed into an anchor of the Twins' rotation. Now in his fifth full season, Ryan has posted a 3.80 ERA, a 110 ERA+, earned an All-Star appearance, and taken the ball as Opening Day starter twice, all while providing surplus value on a team-friendly salary that has helped the Twins build out the rest of their roster.

That deal alone would be enough to raise eyebrows. Putting one over on the Rays is rare. Doing it in convincing fashion is even rarer. The assumption across the league is that if Tampa Bay is calling, you should proceed with caution. More often than not, they're the ones spotting something others have missed. So when the two clubs linked up again at the 2025 trade deadline, it was fair to wonder if lightning could really strike twice.

This time, the Twins sent high-octane reliever Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay in exchange for former top prospect Taj Bradley. Unlike the Cruz deal, this one surrendered long-term value. Jax was not a rental. He still had two and a half years of team control remaining and had been one of the most dominant relievers in the American League. Bradley, meanwhile, was no longer a prospect, but not yet a finished product, either. Across parts of three seasons with the Rays, he had flashed electric stuff, but struggled to put it all together, posting a 4.70 ERA over more than 350 innings.

Still, the Twins saw something. Bradley was only 24 years old, armed with elite velocity and bat-missing ability. On a team headed nowhere in 2025, the value of a high-leverage reliever like Jax was diminished. Turning that into a controllable starting pitcher with upside fitted into the bigger picture.

Early on, it looks like that bet is paying off in a big way. Bradley showed flashes late last season after arriving in Minnesota, but the real buzz began during spring training. Reports out of camp suggested that something had clicked. Bradley even withdrew from pitching for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic to stay with the Twins and continue his buildup for the season. That decision is already looking like a wise one.

Through his first three starts of 2026, Bradley has been dominant. He's allowed just two runs over 16 2/3 innings while striking out 22 hitters. His latest outing came at Target Field against two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and Bradley more than held his own. He worked 6 1/3 innings, allowed just one run, and struck out 10, consistently overpowering hitters and generating nine swings and misses. He's already touched 100 MPH multiple times and now owns the fastest pitch recorded by a Twins starting pitcher in the pitch-tracking era.

There's a different look to Bradley now. The raw stuff was always there, but the Twins appear to have helped him refine it, harness it, and elevate it. At 24 years old, there is still room for growth, which makes the early results even more exciting.

On the other side of the deal, the early returns have been rough for Jax. In his first four appearances of 2026, he's allowed five earned runs and carries an 11.25 ERA, along with a -0.97 Win Probability Added mark that ranks third-worst in the league. It's a very small sample, and Jax has a track record that suggests he will settle in, but the contrast in early performance only adds fuel to the narrative.

None of this is to say the book is written on this trade. Baseball has a way of humbling early conclusions, and both players will have plenty of time to shape how this deal is ultimately viewed. But in the early going, the Twins look like they may have identified and unlocked something the Rays were willing to move on from.

For an organization like Tampa Bay, that almost never happens. And if Bradley continues on this trajectory, the Twins may once again be able to say they got the better of one of the smartest teams in baseball.

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What do you think? Have the Twins pulled off another fleece, or is it too early to make that call?

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I was excited about the trade at the time. While I didn't like the entire bullpen being shipped out, relievers tend to be volatile and Jax was definitely that at times. Trading for a young, controllable starting pitcher is the type of move the Twins need to make if they're going to rebuild. I don't know all the details of Bradley's time in Tampa Bay, it did seem they like soured on him relatively quickly. Their loss, hopefully the Twins' gain. He seems locked in and genuinely happy to be with a new organization.

[Major League Ready]

Am I imagining this or were most people down on Bradley over the off-season.  I thought a lot of people were calling for him to be put in the BP.  It's a little early to celebrate but this has the chance of being an extremely important trade for this franchise.   

[CRF]

I don't know about them having "fleeced" TB again...I just hope he continues to pitch like he's done so far this season. It's definitely needed. 

[roger]

You missed the first nice trade for the Twins, Odorizzi.  Solid starter.  Did Palacios ever play in MLB?

[laloesch]

I THINK the Twins struck gold with Bradley and eventually Abel, who also has fantastic stuff.  The front office should trade Ryan while they still can get prospects for him or sign him to an extension, but don't wait much longer either way.  A rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Abel, SWR, + has huge potential.  The question is what happens to all the rest in AAA?  Matthews, Morris, Festa, etc. 

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, roger said:

You missed the first nice trade for the Twins, Odorizzi.  Solid starter.  Did Palacios ever play in MLB?

Agreed - however, to balance out the discussion, there's the Delmon Young trade. Ouch.

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Am I imagining this or were most people down on Bradley over the off-season.  I thought a lot of people were calling for him to be put in the BP.  It's a little early to celebrate but this has the chance of being an extremely important trade for this franchise.   

No you aren't imagining anything.   Most people trashed the trade in the trade thread,  the grade thread (C-)   and later articles in the fall.   It wasn't until around December where a few more positive articles or posts came out.   Now several did acknowledge getting 4 1/2 years of a starting pitcher for 2 1/2 of a reliever seemed like a great deal.   

Now as I stated last fall - the Rays traded a disgruntled Bradley who they were struggling to communicate with,  and the Twins traded a disgruntled Jax.    The Rays tried to revamp Bradley last year to primarily fastball, get rid of the splitter ect.  The issue is Bradleys arm slot had been dropping, causing a loss in velocity.   Add in you just lost the best pitch to pair off the fastball and teams were able to tee off on Bradley.    In both cases I think the organizations were as much at fault as the players.   

In this case Bradley came over and started putting the work in.  He still had a few rough starts early.   Specifically finding the strike zone with a new arm slot with the fastball and bringing back the splitter.   However almost immediately the fastball velocity was up 2-3 mph.   He ended the season on an extremely strong note.   In late August after several starts the Twins asked him to do scouting reports.   Taj complied.   So the Twins changed his arm slot higher (increased velocity)  - brought back the splitter to have an additional pitch to pair off fastball and produce grounders and a strikeout pitch,  and have him do more homework.   The difference was, Taj began seeing results.  That last start was extremely important because it re-enforced the process was right.  He stayed in Minnesota,  put on 5-10 lbs of muscle and continued to work on refining his pitches.   There is a statement out there that the Twins showed Bradley the science and art of pitching.   I think between Ryan and SWR and the pitching staff they were able to show Bradley how to improve his pitches but make them all work together to make him successful.   

I stated all along if 1 of the pitchers became elite it justified the trade deadline.  I still like Abel -  its been a rough start - but at this point we have to be absolutely thrilled with what Bradley is giving us.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Agreed - however, to balance out the discussion, there's the Delmon Young trade. Ouch.

That was the beginning of the end of fundamentally sound Twins Baseball… each year getting worse and worse at just playing catch… not that it’s unique to MN, just depressing

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That was the beginning of the end of fundamentally sound Twins Baseball… each year getting worse and worse at just playing catch… not that it’s unique to MN, just depressing

It also led to a revolving door at SS - Punto, Cabrera, Hardy, Nishioka, Floriman, etc., etc. That's also no way to construct a defense.

[bunsen82]

19 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Agreed - however, to balance out the discussion, there's the Delmon Young trade. Ouch.

It is looking though as if we have won 3 trades in a row with Tampa

Ryan, Bradley, Orze

I was also listening to MLB this morning.    Speaking of early returns on trades and small sample sizes.  Daniel Susac is 7/8  early in the season and a .5 WAR.   

[Woof Bronzer]

A little early to hang the "We won this trade" banner, but early 2026 returns are very positive.  I like watching Bradley pitch.  

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I THINK the Twins struck gold with Bradley and eventually Abel, who also has fantastic stuff.  The front office should trade Ryan while they still can get prospects for him or sign him to an extension, but don't wait much longer either way.  A rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Abel, SWR, + has huge potential.  The question is what happens to all the rest in AAA?  Matthews, Morris, Festa, etc. 

I'd let it ride with Ryan. With a crop of young hitters likely to emerge from St. Paul later in the year - plus a strong starting rotation - next year should be a play-off challenging team. You make Ryan a QO, if he moves on, you've got a decent draft pick, and there are some other intriguing arms coing up the pipeline as well (including, gasp, left handers).

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

A little early to hang the "We won this trade" banner, but early 2026 returns are very positive.  I like watching Bradley pitch.  

Bradley likes watching Buxton catch. It's the beginning of a nice relationship.

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

A little early to hang the "We won this trade" banner, but early 2026 returns are very positive.  I like watching Bradley pitch.  

To be fair Jax has played 16% of the available games with the Rays.  He started off horrible last year for them then came on at the end with a positive .3 WAR.  He is already a -.8 WAR to start the year.   If the Twins were to trade Bradley right now -  they would get someone significantly better than Jax   😀.

[Doctor Gast]

The Taj Bradley trade was the only trade that really benefited the Twins, from the sell-off. Yet, if Jax hadn’t wanted to be traded, this wouldn’t have happened. Because Falvey didn’t want to trade Jax.  If a team targets a TB pitcher, TB will always come out on top. But if TB targets a player they like, they’ll give you a good deal from their surplus, like Odorizzi and Ryan.         I sometime wonder how many times Falvey had turned down great trades that should have been done which included one of his favorite players like a LH cOFer or Julien.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair Jax has played 16% of the available games with the Rays.  He started off horrible last year for them then came on at the end with a positive .3 WAR.  He is already a -.8 WAR to start the year.   If the Twins were to trade Bradley right now -  they would get someone significantly better than Jax   😀.

Sure, but I'm going to want more than a couple decent starts from Bradley before I declare him an ace.  His problem has been consistency/meatballs and it's too early to say he's eliminated those issues.  

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Am I imagining this or were most people down on Bradley over the off-season.  I thought a lot of people were calling for him to be put in the BP.  It's a little early to celebrate but this has the chance of being an extremely important trade for this franchise.   

It appears there was a grand total of 1 article about Bradley in the offseason.  Definitely some comments calling for the BP, but majority seemed to be in the "give him a shot to start" variety.

 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Am I imagining this or were most people down on Bradley over the off-season.  I thought a lot of people were calling for him to be put in the BP.  It's a little early to celebrate but this has the chance of being an extremely important trade for this franchise.   

We have a tendency to overreact to small sample sizes, looking at his 6.61 ERA in 6 starts last year for us and the Rays gave him around 90 starts and couldn't figure him out. Clearly my logic at the time of "if the Rays can't fix him, why do you think we can" was not accurate.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Sure, but I'm going to want more than a couple decent starts from Bradley before I declare him an ace.  His problem has been consistency/meatballs and it's too early to say he's eliminated those issues.  

He has specifically had 3 issues.   

1. Declining quality of stuff  before this year.   His stuff started out elite when he came up was relatively mediocre last year.   His stuff his night and day different than last year. 

2. Elevated home runs -  The stuff is better as noted,  the other is he has more pitches than effectively the fast ball.   If Teams can no longer tee off on the fastball the home runs will be less

3.  Crooked numbers  - due to the home run, and the fact he would lose his feel during an inning or confidence he would effectively crack and give up a lot of runs.  He would have blow ups about every other start.   He has had similar situations pop up this year.  A bases load or 2 on,  the difference has been 2 fold.  I really think going over the scouting reports is having a massive change on his performance.  Before he went up throwing a ball where the catcher told him to beyond that he knew nothing else.  I can't remember the specific hitter, there was a couple runners on but effectively the hitter couldn't hit an inside pitch.  Bradley hit the inside corner on 4 pitches and ended the inning with weak contact.   

You can still be cautious -  but the process has been excellent.    The biggest thing is Taj is gaining some confidence.  

[Nshore]

It would be nice to extend Ryan to get some positive stability in the rotation.  They have a good rotation forming.   Otherwise it's the baseball version of Sisyphus, always looking for the next pitcher and never quite getting to the top.  But I know that's not baseball business reality.  The Tigers are probably even going to lose Skubal.

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It appears there was a grand total of 1 article about Bradley in the offseason.  Definitely some comments calling for the BP, but majority seemed to be in the "give him a shot to start" variety.

 

I made a post on the last article with the trade deadline thread - the grade article -  and 1 more article on the players traded for were busts.   There have been ample articels and threads with negative sentiment towards Bradley.  

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Am I imagining this or were most people down on Bradley over the off-season.  I thought a lot of people were calling for him to be put in the BP.  It's a little early to celebrate but this has the chance of being an extremely important trade for this franchise.   

Yeah I was one of those that had my concerns about Bradley.  My first concern is the Rays don't usually give up on arms that are likely to work out better than expected in the future.  They aren't perfect, but with Jax's likely dominance for what looked like a 5th starter or pen arm had me concerned.  My second concern was looking at the stats from previous years it looked like he had peaked.  He had that nice year in 2024 but it looked like teams had figured him out to some degree in 2025 and his second ERA with the Twins at 6.61 didn't help me see dominance was coming.

I do think his refining of his splitter and so far not walking as many guys in key situations appears to have changed his trajectory to top of the rotation arm.  It is very early but you look at 2024 and his solid numbers there and then see how he has built out his pitch mix and it looks like he has a strong chance to be a number one or two arm.

It just goes to show that a new pitch and some confidence mixed with good talent can really change things in a hurry.  We'll see if it lasts, but right now it looks like the Twins got a heck of deal for Bradley.

I know the Twins got a steal of a deal for Ryan as well, but it seemed most experts were up in the air about a guy who threw so many fastaball's making it at the MLB level.  He wasn't a sure thing either at the time.  Kudos to the Twins and Ryan for expanding the arsenal to to build beyond the fastball and make him one the better arms in the league.

I don't think either arm was a sure thing to turn things around. but have to give credit to the development staff for making it happen.

[jorgenswest]

It is three starts.

While I enjoyed these three starts I realize Bradley has had really good stretches in previous years. In 2024 he had a run of 8 consecutive starts where he gave up a total of three runs. Even in his struggles last year he put up two three game stretches where he allowed a total of four runs.

Bradley looks awesome. I am encouraged. I also know it is a long season.

[Linus]

The stuff has been there, it’s always been about the control. There has been a marked change in that area and if it continues the Twins have a gold mine. I’m sure Jax will bounce back but if they are both performing at a high level you take Bradley every time. As others have noted Odorizzi was a good deal as well. The Delmon deal was Bill Smith so Falvey doesn’t own that one. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

No you aren't imagining anything.   Most people trashed the trade in the trade thread,  the grade thread (C-)   and later articles in the fall.   It wasn't until around December where a few more positive articles or posts came out.   Now several did acknowledge getting 4 1/2 years of a starting pitcher for 2 1/2 of a reliever seemed like a great deal.   

Now as I stated last fall - the Rays traded a disgruntled Bradley who they were struggling to communicate with,  and the Twins traded a disgruntled Jax.    The Rays tried to revamp Bradley last year to primarily fastball, get rid of the splitter ect.  The issue is Bradleys arm slot had been dropping, causing a loss in velocity.   Add in you just lost the best pitch to pair off the fastball and teams were able to tee off on Bradley.    In both cases I think the organizations were as much at fault as the players.   

In this case Bradley came over and started putting the work in.  He still had a few rough starts early.   Specifically finding the strike zone with a new arm slot with the fastball and bringing back the splitter.   However almost immediately the fastball velocity was up 2-3 mph.   He ended the season on an extremely strong note.   In late August after several starts the Twins asked him to do scouting reports.   Taj complied.   So the Twins changed his arm slot higher (increased velocity)  - brought back the splitter to have an additional pitch to pair off fastball and produce grounders and a strikeout pitch,  and have him do more homework.   The difference was, Taj began seeing results.  That last start was extremely important because it re-enforced the process was right.  He stayed in Minnesota,  put on 5-10 lbs of muscle and continued to work on refining his pitches.   There is a statement out there that the Twins showed Bradley the science and art of pitching.   I think between Ryan and SWR and the pitching staff they were able to show Bradley how to improve his pitches but make them all work together to make him successful.   

I stated all along if 1 of the pitchers became elite it justified the trade deadline.  I still like Abel -  its been a rough start - but at this point we have to be absolutely thrilled with what Bradley is giving us.   

Well put. I said at the time and still believe that this trade was the closest to a "win-win" of all of them and I still think that's the case. Bradley has been great so far, but is more likely than not to settle in as a good to very good #3 type starter. That's not easy to find, especially on a team controlled contract. Jax is a good high leverage reliever under team control, also something that isn't easy to find.  The trade made sense because the Twins were/are rebuilding and Tampa has/had a chance to contend so each had different needs met by this deal. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Hypothetically dealing relievers for position players and starting pitchers is a really, really wise strategy.

Of course, you shouldn't feel compelled to deal EVERY reliever you have, but it's a sound strategy.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

We have a tendency to overreact to small sample sizes, looking at his 6.61 ERA in 6 starts last year for us and the Rays gave him around 90 starts and couldn't figure him out. Clearly my logic at the time of "if the Rays can't fix him, why do you think we can" was not accurate.

I thought basically the same thing, and it certainly shaped my view of the trade at the time.  Happy to be wrong here.

Maybe there's another angle here:  are the Rays sneaky bad at being the buyer in trades?  They certainly have more practice being the seller

[Blyleven2011]

We got odorizze in a trade that worked out for both team ...

Bradley has looked good to start out the year , great game last night ...

Long season ahead and hope his stamina holds up all year , pitched into seventh and threw over hundred pitches , manager showing confidence  ...

Would like Lopez in rotation but Bradley so far has taken his place , Ober is Ober  , got to get Abel on track with his repertoire and SWR continuing to do what he does and rotation staff has a chance to perform well  , Abel  , give him 2 or 3 more starts to harness his ability , zebby too needs to pitch better in AAA or he will be bypassed as the first chosen one for someone else ...

Festa is on 60 day il list now after reports he was working his way back  ...

[bean5302]

Bradley talked about a major change in his approach for games after his trade to the Twins. He started paying attention to scouting and being coachable. The trade to the Twins appears to have been the wake up call he needed.

I think Tampa recognized Bradley wasn't going to be receptive to the coaching and planning he needed to do there. Tampa wasn't going to get anything out of him so his value to Tampa was limited. It wasn't a question of his talent, at least. He sure has looked good after his adjustments, but it's early.

Bradley could have the kind of ceiling to be a front line pitcher. Exciting for the Twins.