How Extending Pablo López Could Lengthen Minnesota’s Competitive Window

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Despite all that's happened over the last 19 months, the Twins intend to compete for playoff spots—not just in the future, but this season. Owner Tom Pohlad was so clear on that imperative that he was willing to lose president of baseball operations Derek Falvey over it. That makes the situation surrounding Pablo López one of the more fascinating long-term decisions the front office will face in the coming months.

López will miss the entire 2026 season following Tommy John surgery. It will be the second such procedure of his career; the first came more than a decade ago. When he returns, the calendar will read 2027, which also happens to be the final season of the four-year extension he signed after Minnesota acquired him.

The Twins got López from the Miami Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. Since that deal, he has been everything Minnesota hoped for at the top of its rotation. Across three seasons, he posted a 3.68 ERA with elite underlying numbers, including a 26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, and a ground ball rate north of 43%. ERA estimators SIERA and FIP suggest he was even better than the surface-level production indicates.

His 2025 campaign looked like another step forward before injuries began to pile up. López opened the year with a 2.82 ERA through 11 starts, before a Grade 2 teres major strain in early June cost him roughly three months. He returned in September for three sharp outings before finishing the season on the injured list with a minor forearm strain. Minnesota acknowledged at the time that López could have pitched through the issue, had the club been in a playoff race. With the season already lost, however, they chose to play things safe. Unluckily, it didn't matter.

Now, the Twins must decide whether to wait for proof of health in 2027 or take a more proactive approach.

A recent blueprint exists. The Cleveland Guardians worked out a short-term deal with Shane Bieber that guaranteed him $10 million for 2025, with a $16 million player option for 2026 and a $4 million buyout. The structure allowed Cleveland to maintain upside if Bieber returned to form, while also giving the pitcher financial security as he rehabbed. Bieber was traded to the Blue Jays last summer and exercised his player option in the fall. Minnesota could pursue something similar for López that covers the 2027 and 2028 seasons.

Pros of Extending López
Financial security for the player matters. A new deal would protect López against the uncertainty that comes with returning from a second Tommy John, while also rewarding someone widely viewed as one of the team’s most respected leaders.

From the club’s perspective, there's an opportunity to buy low. Extending him now rather than after a successful return could result in surplus value if he regains his pre-injury form.

There's also an element of organizational culture to consider. Extending a player who has embraced the organization both on and off the field would reinforce the message that performance and leadership are valued internally. For an ownership group that has talked about competing annually, backing López would be a tangible sign of that commitment.

Cons of Extending López
There's an obvious medical risk tied to any pitcher returning from a second elbow reconstruction. Minnesota would be committing future payroll to a player who will be 22 months removed from their last prolonged period of health and availability when next season begins.

Waiting until he proves healthy in 2027 may provide more clarity, even if it comes at a higher price. In the meantime, the Twins will need to allocate resources elsewhere across a roster that already has several key contributors approaching arbitration raises or free agency.

Still, this is the type of decision that reveals how an organization views its competitive timeline. If the Twins believe their window to contend remains open beyond the next two seasons, then extending López now could stabilize the top of the rotation for years to come—while supporting a player who has become one of the franchise’s most trusted voices.

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Should the Twins approach López with an extension? Does the Bieber extension fit a potential López deal? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LastOnePicked]

How does a contention window that is already firmly shut somehow "remain open" with this extension? That's the only part that confuses me. Something has to be open in the first place to remain open.

If this was his first TJ surgery, I think I'd do this in a heartbeat. But after his second? I think I'd get him ready for a strong 2027 and move on at the trade deadline.

[Woof Bronzer]

Still, this is the type of decision that reveals how an organization views its competitive timeline. If the Twins believe their window to contend remains open beyond the next two seasons, then extending López now could stabilize the top of the rotation for years to come.

What window to contend?  What competitive timeline?  

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 

What window to contend?  What competitive timeline?  

Hey now...you might not be aware, but this is the "most important first half in Twins history."

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm all for it, even if 2026 or 2027 isn't a huge winning window. Pablo is the type of personality you want to keep around.

[Hunter4848]

Imagine being gullible enough to believe Tom Pohlad is telling the truth...

[Parfigliano]

Come on.  Competitive window?  

[bean5302]

Lopez's xERA and xFIP have climbed for the last 2 straight years and this was going to be his age 30 season. He's not good enough to lead a playoff rotation based on his seasonal stats. His K rates have declined massively. His exit velocities against are climbing, both average and max. Hitters are swinging at Lopez's stuff outside the zone less so his deception is in decline. Contact rates in and out of the zone are up...

This obsession with extending every decent player who suits up for the Twins for more than a year or two is crazy to me.

Lopez is not the guy you extend. An extension makes little sense for either side, yet the TD writers will continue to push this issue over and over again, won't they?

If Lopez is needed at the price he'll take, the Twins are already non-competitive.

[dberthia]

There is no current competitive window. He should've been traded during the offseason when he still had some value.

[Whitey333]

What contention window?  Fantasy land!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think the way a López extension could help extend the next contention window is by signing him to an additional year, then trading him. The prospect return might be decent then and they could contribute in the future.

2026 is lost and so is 2027. Falvey/Zoll and the Pohlads made sure to screw this team over for as long as they could by getting rid of enough talent with bad trades that they can’t compete, but not committing to the rebuild.

[DJL44]

As with any extension, the question is what dollar amount. The Twins already have his next competitive season - 2027 - under contract. They also have the right to extend a qualifying offer in 2028 (assuming no changes to the CBA). Would Lopez turn down $25M for 2028?

A move to extend Lopez for 2028-29 would have to be cheap enough to guard against the downside that he is not effective at age 32 after two elbow surgeries. I'd say a 2 year $16M extension ($8M per season) is the right amount for me. I really doubt Lopez would have any interest in that. If he comes back healthy, he's looking at a $25M qualifying offer or a 3-year contract somewhere else.

[LambchoP]

Probably a good risk to take, but they won't. We have an amazing pitching pipeline after all ;)

[Chad93]

The Twins are at the start of a rebuild they are not close to winning anything 

[Road trip]

Plan for the future.  Don't live in the past.  As much as we want a return of 2023 Pablo/Twins, nobody has a time travel machine. 

The odds of Pablo returning to his prior form are poor. He's suffered a serious injury, and the track record for pitchers undergoing a 2nd UCL is not good.  This is especially true of starters over age 30.  It was a devastating event for the franchise.

If the Twins want to contend again someday they have to face reality and think with their heads, not their hearts.

[nicksaviking]

Pablo has been great, and it was a good trade. But even if he's healthy, he'll a free agent at 32-years-old. Probably better to start looking for the next Pablo Lopez. Someone who's in their mid to late 20s.

[Patzky]

40 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I think the way a López extension could help extend the next contention window is by signing him to an additional year, then trading him. The prospect return might be decent then and they could contribute in the future.

2026 is lost and so is 2027. Falvey/Zoll and the Pohlads made sure to screw this team over for as long as they could by getting rid of enough talent with bad trades that they can’t compete, but not committing to the rebuild.

26 and 37 are lost for different reasons. If it's an agreeable price signing Pablo to an a extension is a no-brainer.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Patzky said:

If it's an agreeable price signing Pablo to an a extension is a no-brainer.

What price is agreeable?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

As with any extension, the question is what dollar amount. The Twins already have his next competitive season - 2027 - under contract. They also have the right to extend a qualifying offer in 2028 (assuming no changes to the CBA). Would Lopez turn down $25M for 2028?

A move to extend Lopez for 2028-29 would have to be cheap enough to guard against the downside that he is not effective at age 32 after two elbow surgeries. I'd say a 2 year $16M extension ($8M per season) is the right amount for me. I really doubt Lopez would have any interest in that. If he comes back healthy, he's looking at a $25M qualifying offer or a 3-year contract somewhere else.

EXACTLY.

The scenario proposed reads to me like a... Twins are competitive this year or look like they have the core to be competitive for 2027 and then 2028.

The scenario also assumes it's a lock the CBA is agreed to and is status-quo or beneficial to the players which I think is also risky for the Twins.

The scenario assumes it's a virtual guarantee Pablo Lopez is widely expected to come back as the same pitcher after having missed 1-2 years to the point where a team with ownership committed to a below median payroll will be able to avoid bad large contracts consider there to be no added risk to extending Lopez.

The reality is Pablo Lopez today is not Pablo Lopez in 2023 where the Twins ALREADY bought out 3 years of his free agency through an extension. Lopez has a guaranteed generational wealth contract at $80MM from the Twins. He's not desperate or starving for a new contract.

Lopez has almost zero reason to take a discount, and plenty of reasons not to take a short term contract at age 32...

[TJSweens]

Tom Pohlad can say "compete now" all he wants. That doesn't wish it into existence. 

[farmerguychris]

Competitive window open or not, I'll always be willing to spend Billionaire owners money on my favorite team.  Pablo seems like the kind of guy who might consider an extension like we did for Paddock.  Maybe we could get him (at least for the first year of new deal) below market value and then maybe some team outs in case he doesn't recover as expected.

[PuckettProtector]

This is so absurd I'm not even going to read it. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

26 and 37 are lost for different reasons. If it's an agreeable price signing Pablo to an a extension is a no-brainer.

26 and 27 are lost for the same indecisive dithering. We've all had the CBA and potential lockout on our radar for a year. That's why this off season was so important... and the powers that be, just did nothing.

Is a Pablo extension actually a no brainer? As others have pointed out, he'll be 32 when his current contract is up, his peripheral stats are showing signs of decline, and he's getting his second TJ - risky for a guaranteed contract.

This for a team who isn't showing any signs of investing significant playing time to the next group of core players, and is running back a team that won 70 games last year. That team started the season with Carlos Correa at SS and had a very good bullpen is gone. With a $100m payroll, 35ish won't be playing for the team in '26. Effectively this will be a $65 to $70m payroll team.

[awmonahan]

I like the idea, especially with someone else's cash, but I think it's been done a disservice by saying "competitive window". Maybe it depends on your definition of "competitive" or "window".

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, awmonahan said:

I like the idea, especially with someone else's cash, but I think it's been done a disservice by saying "competitive window". Maybe it depends on your definition of "competitive" or "window".

More of a trap door.

[Patzky]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What price is agreeable?

Ask again after the new CBA.. 

[rdehring]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

This obsession with extending every decent player who suits up for the Twins for more than a year or two is crazy to me.

Could not agree with you more, bean.

Keep wondering how the Twins, or any mid-or-small market team can compete?  Baseball needs better revenue sharing along with a real salary cap.  But even with those in place, smaller market teams need to be better than those teams with pockets bulging with cash.  Hopefully, that will be addressed within the next year.  Unfortunately, I don't expect whatever comes from the coming negotiation to be perfect.

First, they need to draft better than most teams, ie, they cannot make big mistakes like that rising shortstop several years ago.  They also need to be smarter when signing International kids.  With one of the largest International budgets each year, I don't understand why they almost never sign anyone from the top 25 or 30 rated prospects?

Next, they need to do a fantastic job developing these kids and getting a better than average number to the majors.  Once they get there, they need to be coached well so they become the most productive player their talent allows.

Lastly, they need to supplement their roster with smart trades and the occasional free-agent signing, like Nelson Cruz.  Yes, they can sign that special player long-term.  Someone like Mauer, Puckett, Buxton and probably Morneau and Hunter.  But most decent, or even good players need to be moved as they near free-agency.  Get a good return to continually restock the system to have that constant pipeline of replacements.

Yes, there will be years that feel like a rebuild.  But if they are smart in signing young kids and developing them there should also be multi-year windows when they are very competitive.  It seems to me that what Tampa has been doing is the best we Twins fans can hope for.  Hopefully TP and Zell are up for the challenge.

 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really like Pablo Lopez.  He's been outstanding for the team.  However, extending him for more years after 2027 is a major gamble, without a lot of guarantee for success.  As has been pointed out by others, he's getting older, this is his second TJ, and his peripherals aren't what they once were. It's time to find the next front line pitcher, whether through the system or through trade.  

If you are actually going to extend somebody, I would extend Joe Ryan.  I think he has another gear to reach and that he's going to find it sooner rather than later.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

mod note - lets keep this discussion to Pablo and the Twins. Salary cap should be a separate discussion

[Original_JB]

Your Stockholm Syndrome is showing. The Twins need to decide if they are "trying to win baseball games" or be "in the entertainment business". Sure, Pablo's a great guy, gives a good interview, is a "plus" in the community, loved in the clubhouse....... None of those things put "W"s in the win column.  If he is favorable to a 1 year "make good" type contract with a team option, sure. But multi-year extensions with the league turmoil coming up? C'mon.