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Posted
Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Entering the offseason, those who follow the Minnesota Twins expected corner outfielder/designated hitter Trevor Larnach to part ways with the organization, either by being non-tendered in mid-November or traded sometime before spring training. Instead, they tendered him a contract in the fall, and agreed to a one-year, $4.475-million contract to avoid arbitration earlier this month. With less than three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to the Lee Health Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Larnach remains with the club.

Larnach appears set to enter his sixth major-league season still a member of the Twins. However, his role in 2026 could differ from any he’s occupied in previous seasons, due to the 26-man roster’s projected construction. Right now, Larnach is projected to platoon with Austin Martin in left field, with Larnach starting games against right-handed starting pitchers and Martin starting games against left-handed starting pitchers. At first glance, Larnach would be slated to receive more opportunities at the position, given that major-league clubs face right-handed starting pitchers about three times as often as southpaws. Yet, given how Minnesota’s 26-man roster is currently constructed, the club could possess the positional flexibility necessary to avoid playing Larnach in the field altogether.
 
Fellow left-handed hitting corner outfield options Kody Clemens and Alan Roden (or James Outman, depending on who performs better during spring training) are also projected to hold roster spots come Opening Day. Clemens and Roden are superior defensive options to Larnach. The trio of Clemens, Roden, and Martin could operate in left field interchangeably, providing Minnesota with a plus defensive option in every platoon scenario. Any of the three players could also back up Matt Wallner in right field, providing the club with quality defensive flexibility in both corner outfield spots. Larnach would thus operate as the club’s primary designated hitter against right-handed starting pitchers, with switch-hitting DH options Josh Bell (first base) and Victor Caratini (catcher) playing in the field.
 
On the surface, that looks like a minimal role, especially for a player earning almost $5 million. As noted earlier, however, major-league clubs face right-handed starting pitchers far more often than left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota could maximize Larnach’s skillset on a game-to-game basis, potentially leading to the Oregon State product producing at an unforeseen rate in his age-29 season. In 2024, Larnach hit .259/.338/.434 (a 119 wRC+) over 400 plate appearances, marking what has been his best season in the majors. Larnach excelled against right-handed pitching in 2024, hitting 15 home runs and posting a 123 wRC+ over 377 plate appearances. He struggled against same-handed pitchers, however, posting a lousy 63 wRC+ in the tiny sample of 23 plate appearances.
 
Larnach performed well against right-handed pitching last season, too, generating a 110 wRC+ over 449 plate appearances. However, the team elected to provide him more opportunities against lefties, which worked to his detriment. Larnach generated a similarly brutal 71 wRC+ against lefties. That time, however, he garnered 118 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers, a fivefold increase from 2024. His apparent performance dip last year was the result of Minnesota forcing him into 95 additional plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, due to a lack of corner outfield and DH depth.
 
With Martin, Clemens, Roden (or Outman), Wallner, Bell, and Caratini all projected to be on the Opening Day roster, Minnesota could shield Larnach from his weaknesses and maximize his strengths. Hitting almost exclusively against righties, Larnach could again post a wRC+ in the 120-130 range, though that would put more pressure on Martin, Bell and Caratini to be productive hitters against southpaws. Again, Larnach is not a platoon-proof left-handed hitting bat in the same ilk as Kyle Tucker or Tyler Soderstrom. Still, he could supply value in the right role.
 
The final question, then, is whether the right role for Larnach is one the roster can accommodate, as a whole. The Twins will have 13 roster spots for position players at any given time. Ryan Jeffers and Caratini are locks. So are Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Wallner and Clemens. That makes nine. Roden, Martin, Tristan Gray, Ryan Kreidler and Eric Wagaman can all be optioned to the minors, which gives the team flexibility, but that still leaves Outman, Edouard Julien, and Alex Jackson to sort through.
 
The nine players listed as locks don't include a backup shortstop or third baseman, so one of the final four spots must be held for that player, with Gray being the leading candidate. Whether keeping Larnach (and using him in the role we've discussed) makes sense could come down to which of the out-of-options trio sticks around, if any. Julien is almost certainly out the door. Should the team elect to carry three catchers by keeping Jackson, though, they'd also be more likely to use Jeffers and Caratini at DH on occasion, pinching Larnach. Outman is the closest thing to a true center fielder in the mix, other than Buxton, so he could stick around mostly for his glove—but even if that's why he lands on the roster, him landing there would complicate keeping Larnach.
 
If the Twins trust Larnach in left field (something that wasn't true in 2025), he has a fairly clear path to sticking around and making a positive impact. If not, though, he's still in a precarious position, because the role the team would most like to give him might not suit the rest of their roster construction. He just needs the right opportunity, but whether that right opportunity exists in Minnesota isn't clear yet.

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Verified Member
Posted

That's a tough path to making the roster with all the other lefties that could play the same role with better defense. This team needs Culpepper to get off to a hot start and get his righty bat up, which can push Keaschall to LF against left handed pitchers. Against right handers Lee, Keaschall and Culpepper can hold down the middle infield spots. 

Posted

I still don't see it. I think really your argument is one that the team should be showing to other teams as to why trading for him makes sense.

That said, there are SO many other players you listed, even in the locks section, that I'm not certain are locks, at least for all of 2026. Like, can you GUARANTEE that Kody Clemens is a part of the team on May 1, especially if Outman AND Larnach are on the team? Why? And Jenkins and Rodriguez certainly will also debut at some point. 

 

Posted

I wouldn't say he's our "Least-Favorite" option. The Twins currently have too many left-handed outfielders. Would I rather have Larnach in the lineup than Clemens, Roden, or Outman? Hell yeah! But knowing the Twins, I suspect they will give those three a long leash, for reasons both good and bad. It just seems like Larnach is the odd man out, which makes me wonder what the plan is.

Posted

Outman as back up CF & guy that’s out of options ……if he hits much in Spring Training, seems he’s in OF mix.

2 Catchers. (no Jackson)

Outman - Buxton - Martin - Wallner - Larnach

Bell - Keaschall - Lee - Lewis

Probably Clemens as alternative in LF & 1B

Need a real SS, IMO, so Lee can float between 3 spots on the dirt.

Jeffers is DH v. LH pitching often - he hits much better not catching & Team needs that production. (15-20% of games) …….. Caratini some at DH v. lefties …….. Bell hardly at all at DH v. lefties.

Larnach as DH 90% of the time v. RH pitching.

Posted
7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Outman as back up CF & guy that’s out of options ……if he hits much in Spring Training, seems he’s in OF mix.

2 Catchers. (no Jackson)

Outman - Buxton - Martin - Wallner - Larnach

Bell - Keaschall - Lee - Lewis

Probably Clemens as alternative in LF & 1B

Need a real SS, IMO, so Lee can float between 3 spots on the dirt.

Jeffers is DH v. LH pitching often - he hits much better not catching & Team needs that production. (15-20% of games) …….. Caratini some at DH v. lefties …….. Bell hardly at all at DH v. lefties.

Larnach as DH 90% of the time v. RH pitching.

Just throwing out; Wallner very easily could end up dh'ing too.

Who would you rather have as a primary DH option against righties? Larnach or Wallner?

Posted

There is nothing wrong with Trevor Larnach, just like there is nothing wrong with Josh Bell, Matt Wallner, and a couple of other players. The problem is that there can only be one DH in the lineup at a time. Using a DH in the field doesn't work for the pitching staff or in attempts to win games. It doesn't seem like the front office is aware of the problem and thus the glut of DH players. All of the guys looking for time at the DH slot also doesn't even take into account that some days guys such as Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, and Ryan Jeffers could DH as well. Trevor Larnach is a fine ball player, as a DH. He just suffers from the team hoarding DH types, which costs him.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just throwing out; Wallner very easily could end up dh'ing too.

Who would you rather have as a primary DH option against righties? Larnach or Wallner?

depends on how many base runners we have.

Posted

In 141 career games, 555 plate appearances as a DH he he as a 98 wRC+.  He had 80 games as DH last year for 93wRC+. While the splits tool doesn’t allow both as a DH against Righties, the vast majority of those PAs had to be against Righties. Larnach also a -2 OAA.

agreed with others I just don’t see it.

Wallner on the other hand, only 37 games as DH but 128 wRC+. He struggled badly as DH last year 58 wRC+. That small of a sample could have been against lefties. Further his OAA is -11

Wallner is a better hitter, better hitter as DH and a worse fielder per baseball savant. Looks like their every day DH to me.

Verified Member
Posted

He justneeds the right opportunity, but whether that right opportunity exists in Minnesota isn't clear yet.
 

The Twins have given him plenty of at bats and have largely shielded him from lefties. He’s 29 years old - this is who he is: a roughly average hitter who can’t hit lefties and isn’t good in the field. DH ing him is even worse as one should expect clear positive production from that spot. 

Verified Member
Posted
42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is nothing wrong with Trevor Larnach, just like there is nothing wrong with Josh Bell, Matt Wallner, and a couple of other players. The problem is that there can only be one DH in the lineup at a time. Using a DH in the field doesn't work for the pitching staff or in attempts to win games. It doesn't seem like the front office is aware of the problem and thus the glut of DH players. All of the guys looking for time at the DH slot also doesn't even take into account that some days guys such as Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, and Ryan Jeffers could DH as well. Trevor Larnach is a fine ball player, as a DH. He just suffers from the team hoarding DH types, which costs him.

So many DH's; so few At Bats.  

Posted

Sure. If MLB had 50 roster spots, Larnach would make sense as a part-time (mostly DH) left fielder to platoon against RHP.

wRC+ 110 is honestly just a little better than average. It's not like Larnach raked at a wRC+ 150 rate or something which could offset his poor hitting against lefties.

The way this roster is constructed means several players make no sense together, and Larnach is one of those. He's a high floor player, but with an extremely low ceiling.

Verified Member
Posted

The other thing not mentioned in this article is that Larnach is about the only player in that role that if traded they can recover 4.5M.  If the Twins are keeping payroll low then that becomes important as well.

I think Larnach is solid against right handed pitching and could improve on those numbers, but as others have said how many of essentially the same type of player or slightly better can the Twins keep on the 26 man?  It isn't that he's a bad bat.  It's that his age, lack of defensive value, cost and redundancy make him look like the odd man out.

Verified Member
Posted
32 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Wallner is a better hitter, better hitter as DH and a worse fielder per baseball savant. Looks like their every day DH to me.

Josh Bell is the DH - he's the 4th best fielding 1B on the 40-man roster.

46 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

If Outman makes the team all hope (already faint) is lost.

Yes, Outman is actually Twins Territory's least favorite left-handed hitting outfielder.

There is nothing wrong with Larnach, except the fact that the Twins could replace him with Roden, Rodriguez or Jenkins and not miss him.

Austin Martin should be the everyday LF - he gets on base against both LH and RH pitchers and plays better defense than Larnach. Looking at Statcast - he struggled against changeups and splitters. That might be the best information about when to sub for Martin.

Posted
26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

...Austin Martin should be the everyday LF - he gets on base against both LH and RH pitchers and plays better defense than Larnach. Looking at Statcast - he struggled against changeups and splitters. That might be the best information about when to sub for Martin.

I think people are getting awfully excited about Martin despite more history of being bad than being good at the MLB level.

Martin was basically the exact same guy in 2025 that he was in 2024 at the plate, just with better results.

2024 vs 2025
18.6% vs 18.6% O-Swing rate
68.7% vs 58.7% Z-Swing rate (a sub-60% Z-Swing rate is terrible IMHO)
26.6% vs. 25.2% Line drive rate
42.4% vs. 50.4% Ground ball rate
31.0% vs. 24.4% Fly ball rate
87.2mph vs. 86.2mph Avg. Exit Velo (not good)
1.1% vs. 5.5% Barrel rate (still below average)
33.5% vs. 38.5% Hard hit.

I just don't see it. The increased walk rate doesn't make sense given the fact Martin didn't really change his approach for swinging at pitches out of the zone or anything. His approach of waiting for mistake pitches (the very low Z-swing rate) reminds me of Eddie Julien.

Posted

 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Sure. If MLB had 50 roster spots, Larnach would make sense as a part-time (mostly DH) left fielder to platoon against RHP.

wRC+ 110 is honestly just a little better than average. It's not like Larnach raked at a wRC+ 150 rate or something which could offset his poor hitting against lefties.

The way this roster is constructed means several players make no sense together, and Larnach is one of those. He's a high floor player, but with an extremely low ceiling.

At 70 DH plate appearances there were 78 hitters on the list last year. 110 is below median (Refsnyder)

IMG_3514.jpeg.017e400d824cf66d9c5751fbf97a59a7.jpeg
 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Dman said:

The other thing not mentioned in this article is that Larnach is about the only player in that role that if traded they can recover 4.5M.  If the Twins are keeping payroll low then that becomes important as well.

I think Larnach is solid against right handed pitching and could improve on those numbers, but as others have said how many of essentially the same type of player or slightly better can the Twins keep on the 26 man?  It isn't that he's a bad bat.  It's that his age, lack of defensive value, cost and redundancy make him look like the odd man out.

Hard to justify spots for Larnach, Wallner, Wagaman, Matin, Bell, and Roden/Outman/Fedko. The others all have something we need - RH hitter, plays 1B (Wagaman), strong hitting track record, switch hitter (Bell), young on the way up, conquered AAA, with speed and defense (Roden), had a strong second half at MLB level, plays good defense (Martin), and 30 homer power with MLB track record (Wallner). Larnach is redundant to at least some of those skill sets, number 2 in those he has. and simply doesn't have any speed or defensive chops. Nice player but redundant and doesn't really add anything we don't already have. That's why he's the logical trade candidate.  

There is a logjam at least theoretically. Now someone could get hurt, not perform at all in ST, be traded, or step off the curb and get hit by a bus. It seems like at least one of those things should happen - except the last one of course. My guess is that the Twins will want to see where guys like Martin, Roden, Fedko, etc. are, and then decide on the odd man out unless and until a good trade opportunity arises. This actually makes sense from a roster building prospective. Nothing is set in stone (ever) and certainly not in February. Keeping options open is the best course. Larnach is a solid MLB player, at least at the plate. No reason to make a hasty decision on his future with the Twins yet.

Posted

Larnach is a MLB bat, but he doesn't make sense on this roster anymore. As already mentioned, the roster has enough LH OFs and he's a liability defensively anyways. On a one year deal and a FA next year, he's essentially a cheap veteran who is unlikely to be back with the team in 2027 so why not trade him and try out the prospects in his place, Roden early in the year and then Rodriguez/Jenkins later on. I don't see much risk in moving on - like Bader and many other guys on one year deals, if they do have a career year then they're signing elsewhere regardless. This team isn't going to be good so might as well play the prospects where you reasonably can.

Posted

Biggest question for him is how the defense is. Last year was his worst defensive year and his lowest sprint speed. He's been a slightly below average defender before last year, which works as a platoon OF with his bat. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Larnach is a MLB bat, but he doesn't make sense on this roster anymore. As already mentioned, the roster has enough LH OFs and he's a liability defensively anyways. On a one year deal and a FA next year, he's essentially a cheap veteran who is unlikely to be back with the team in 2027 so why not trade him and try out the prospects in his place, Roden early in the year and then Rodriguez/Jenkins later on. I don't see much risk in moving on - like Bader and many other guys on one year deals, if they do have a career year then they're signing elsewhere regardless. This team isn't going to be good so might as well play the prospects where you reasonably can.

Agreed with everything you said.  However, Larnach is only in Arb2 and not a UFA until 2028.

Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think people are getting awfully excited about Martin despite more history of being bad than being good at the MLB level.

Martin was basically the exact same guy in 2025 that he was in 2024 at the plate, just with better results.

2024 vs 2025
18.6% vs 18.6% O-Swing rate
68.7% vs 58.7% Z-Swing rate (a sub-60% Z-Swing rate is terrible IMHO)
26.6% vs. 25.2% Line drive rate
42.4% vs. 50.4% Ground ball rate
31.0% vs. 24.4% Fly ball rate
87.2mph vs. 86.2mph Avg. Exit Velo (not good)
1.1% vs. 5.5% Barrel rate (still below average)
33.5% vs. 38.5% Hard hit.

I just don't see it. The increased walk rate doesn't make sense given the fact Martin didn't really change his approach for swinging at pitches out of the zone or anything. His approach of waiting for mistake pitches (the very low Z-swing rate) reminds me of Eddie Julien.

Hey, you may be right but the man did well in the traditional counting stats last year - .280/.374/.365(.739), 11 steals in 15 attempts. In other words, he performed on the field. If he can raise the SLG to .400 he's a borderline All Star. Maybe he was the same guy in 2024 and 2025 but it's 2024 that's the production outlier, not 2025. Remember, the metrics you cite are intended to be predictive of actual production, they are not actually production stats themselves. As a result, like all predictive stats they can be misleading or simply not accurately predictive. You don' get extra wins for leading the league in Z-Swing rate. Martin is young and improving so give him some run. Let's not forget that he can actually field in LF. His primary competition - Larnach and Wallner - cannot. If any team needs to improve their defense it's your Minnesota Twins. 

This is the year to give Martin his make or break it shot. That means playing 5 days a week and facing both RH and LH pitching. If he performs and continues to play well in the field, we have a 27 year old starting OF at a minimum salary - the Holy Grail. If he craps out, we send him to AAA and hope to get him right or trade him. The dumbest thing to do would be to force him into a short side platoon role and miss the opportunity to see if he can be more. 

The first half of 2026 is all about finding out what we have. I mean, really finding out what we have by playing guys on the cusp every day. Martin, Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall should play every day. If they don't perform  then go to the next guy like Jenkins, GG, Emma, or Culpeper. That's how you build a team - not by platooning guys with average MLB vets so you can to win 75 games instead of 70.  Let's Build A Team!

Verified Member
Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think people are getting awfully excited about Martin despite more history of being bad than being good at the MLB level.

I am hoping it isn't long before Walker Jenkins is the starting left fielder, but until then I think this team needs the speed and defense from Austin Martin.

Posted
39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am hoping it isn't long before Walker Jenkins is the starting left fielder, but until then I think this team needs the speed and defense from Austin Martin.

He's no faster than Wallner was a couple years ago, and his weak arm led to teams really being aggressive on him last year where he got some opportunities to push up his defensive stats through getting some easy outs on attempted advances.

Martin doesn't get a good reaction or jump, but he does have enough raw speed to make up for his poor instincts. Expecting more than average defense from him feels optimistic, but certainly more ceiling than a guy like Larnach.

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