Should the Twins Extend one of Their Key Young Players?

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Some 2,500 days ago, the Twins announced a pair of five-year pacts for two of their young stars, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. It was a shrewd and symbolic move: the pair—signed as international players in the same class, friends as they rose through the system together—served as complementary core players around Byron Buxton, Miguel Sanó, and José Berríos. They hadn’t yet broken out, but they each had arguably their best season in 2019, fueling a 101-win machine while giving the franchise cheap production for years. 

Polanco and Kepler’s success is an example of why teams have aggressively sought pre-arbitration extensions in recent years. The surplus value potential is sky-high. As Polanco averaged over 3 wins above replacement per season (according to Baseball Reference), the Twins paid him around the going rate for a mid-tier reliever. Kepler, though less valuable in an absolute sense, was still a tremendous bargain: a two-win player paid like someone expected to fill in the back end of a rotation or play only in a platoon role offensively. If a pre-arb player flops (like Scott Kingery or Evan White did for the Phillies and Mariners, respectively) after signing this kind of deal, the downside is far less than if a free agent does so. Both franchises “only” ran $24 million in the red, spread across six years. The Twins' savings on Polanco and Kepler were perhaps double that.

With Royals breakout star Maikel García recently inking such a deal, a question arises: do the Twins have a pre-arb player they should lock up long-term?

Serious Contenders

Matt Wallner
Wallner thundered his way through back-to-back seasons with a .370 OBP and .500 slugging in 2023 and 2024, before slogging through a far more tepid campaign in 2025. It’s easy to stomach his defensive butcherings when his OPS is nearly .900. At a slugging-forward .776, matters get much more murky. 

Nonetheless, Wallner possesses undeniable tools. Few can swing as hard as him, throw with such velocity, and impart pure, utter, game-altering damage onto a baseball. He even cleaned up the whiffs a little last year, striking out at a career-low (but still high) 29.1% while walking 11.7% of the time. He has obvious limitations, though, and the extreme nature of his profile would probably make the team nervous to guarantee a significant amount of money.

His age may limit the desire to extend him. As a medium-bloomer, Wallner already celebrated his 28th birthday, meaning any free agent years bought out will come after he turns 30.

Royce Lewis
This offseason marked Lewis’s first year in arbitration, meaning he technically isn’t “pre-arb,” but the idea is the same: he’s a talent whom the team could choose to lock down before free agency. No one on this list has done the things Lewis has done. For a moment in 2023, he looked like a future MVP candidate, smacking homers at a historic rate while spearheading the late surge that helped lead the team to the playoffs. Then—while hobbled so badly he could only saunter to first base—Lewis cracked four homers in the postseason to lead the team to the ALDS. 

Much can change in two years. Those homers felt like a lifetime ago. Like Wallner, Lewis saw his play degraded to the point where—separated from the name and pedigree—there would have been a legitimate argument for him to be non-tendered this offseason. An 85 wRC+ from the hot corner excites no one. 

Extending Lewis would be a bet on his potential and an offered olive branch. Clearly, something has been up with his relationship with the franchise. He’s groused and grumbled about money, losing, and how he’s hesitated to make adjustments because of his apparently uncertain position on the team. Perhaps rewarding such behavior with multiple millions is unwise; maybe it would provide the foundation he needs to get his mentality right. 

Check Back in the Future

Luke Keaschall
The best recent performer of the bunch, Keaschall is probably a year or two away from being considered for a contract like this. Next year will be his age-23 season. It seems like the best time to start offering to buy out free agent years will be after that, assuming his play continues to impress.

Dark Horses

Taj Bradley
Impossibly, Bradley is still just 24, making him younger than Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson. He’s arbitration-eligible following the 2026 season. A strong showing could push the team to extend him long-term, especially as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober inch towards free agency. 

Brooks Lee
Guys with negative WAR nearly 200 games into their big-league careers don’t typically demand extensions. Lee needs to prove he can at least hold his own in MLB before the Twins entertain ideas of a multiple-year contract. The pedigree and prospect heritage are there, though. 

Of all these candidates, a Lewis extension brings the most intrigue. He’s at the perfect age where buying out free-agent years could be crucial, and it could provide the stability he apparently needs to make adjustments and not push himself through injury. What do you think? Is there someone else the Twins should extend? Or would you hold off until next offseason?

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[Mike Sixel]

No to all those. Lewis and Keaschell haven't shown any ability to be healthy. Wallner is 28. Lee? Wut? 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nope.  If there are any extensions, they should be for Joe Ryan or perhaps Ryan Jeffers.  Keaschall is intriguing, but I'm not ready for it.  He has plenty left to prove.   I'm not willing to gamble on either Lewis or Lee developing.  Wallner is too old to extend.  

[IndianaTwin]

No.

It's not that I'm against the idea of extensions, though I'm not convinced any of those listed are even to the point Kepler was in his career at the time of the extension. 

The biggest reason not to is that doing so probably adds $5M or so to this year's payroll. Use the $5M to sign an additional reliever instead. 

[Blyleven2011]

Nobody of the youth group i guess you would call them has not shown enough to deserve an extension yet , Lopez and Buxton have had there extentions , will they get another ( time will tell with this organization ) , Ryan is worthy but doubtful  , jeffers is borderline extendable , 2 years at most

[Brandon]

I could see a 3-4 year extension for Wall er but not with the three OF prospects in AAA 

Lewis can be extended but on a more team friendly deal with incentives would be fine. 

Cole Sands on a three year extension with an option year or two so the Twins can choose to buy out a year or two of free agency.  

Keaschal is interesting you are looking at either a short term deal of three years for security for the player or a long term deal.  Depends on the cost.  

I would rather extend Jeffers and Ryan though Jenkins would be interesting on an 8 year deal 

[TNtwins85]

As soon as Walker Jenkins comes up. Other than that everyone else has to prove themselves. Yes, Jenkins is no sure thing but every service time day as a Boras client is one day closer to free agency. 

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Nobody of the youth group i guess you would call them has not shown enough to deserve an extension yet , Lopez and Buxton have had there extentions , will they get another ( time will tell with this organization ) , Ryan is worthy but doubtful  , jeffers is borderline extendable , 2 years at most

Why would Jeffers do that?

[Blyleven2011]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would Jeffers do that?

He probably wouldn't because he is 1 year from free agency and and his agent Boras wouldn't advise it this close to free agency  ...

This was about who the FO would consider to extend  !

[SteveLV]

This is, frankly, a bizarre take.

The veteran players that need to either be extended or traded are Jeffers and Ryan. They are proven good players.

Wallner, Lewis, and Lee may not even be in the MLB by the end of next season if they don't improve.  Why would you extend that type of player???

Jenkins, Rodriguez, possibly Keaschall, sure, those guys deserve consideration if they perform well in 2026.

Sands is ok, but nothing they need to prioritize.

I would give some thought to extending SWR if he does well this year and can be extended at a reasonable price. If any of the young SP's excels, sure, offer an extension.

[Nashvilletwin]

Let’s run through all the usual suspects:

Lewis - he is in a prove it year from both sides’ perspectives.

Wallner - the Twins think so much of him as a potential DH they signed a 33 year old to take a lot of those DH ABs, especially against righties.

Lee - destined for a (easily replaceable) super utility role at the absolute best unless he somehow catches fire.

Martin (let’s not forget him) - see Lee above. But it’s not clear who might be the more valuable of the two - it could prove to be Martin.

Jeffers - given the hype surrounding Tait, he’d be too expensive to be a back up; besides, he’s only 10 months from free agency through which he’ll get paid way more than what we’d pay him.

Ryan - would love to get him extended, but a) he’s too much moolah and b) he has no interest in staying here; he’d much rather be traded.

So, in conclusion, no extensions make sense at this time.

 

[Reptevia]

First they have to get a “key young player “. 

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Nobody of the youth group i guess you would call them has not shown enough to deserve an extension yet

The way you wrote this phrase actually means the opposite of what I think you meant.  Let's break it down.  "Nobody" is a negative.  "Not shown" is a negative.  Two negatives form a positive.   Therefore, what you are actually saying is that all of the youth group should get extensions.  Is that what you meant to say?  If not, you should have written "Nobody of the youth group...has shown enough to deserve an extension".

Sorry about posting this but I spent many years editing proclamations from corporate executives who were continually stating the opposite of what they meant.  It's ingrained in me to clarify such writing.  An easy cure is to take 15 seconds to read what you have written before hitting "Submit Comment".

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

As soon as Walker Jenkins comes up. Other than that everyone else has to prove themselves. Yes, Jenkins is no sure thing but every service time day as a Boras client is one day closer to free agency. 

That's a deal you do right now this offseason. Lock him up for 8/$60-80 million and he's on the opening day lineup. If there's no deal, we won't see him until whatever the date is that gives him an extra year of control. 

[DannySD]

I think Ober and Sands are the most likely to sign modest Twins-y extensions, they've been consistent but not spectacular. Everyone else has more to prove. 

[twinstalker]

Shaking my head at the constant proposals to extend Boras clients.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Hard pass. There's not much discussion needed when current state Royce Lewis is the top conversation piece. 

[the_brute_squad]

If you signed Lewis to an extension maybe he wouldn't worry about his contract so much and he could start making some mid-season adjustments.

[TwinsDr2021]

@Matt Braun you are better than this. Garcia is 25 (26 in March), coming off of years were he played 123, 157, 160 games and last year was an all star, gold glove and MVP candidate with a WAR of 5.8.

MN Twins 40 man with guys younger than him (or his age), Abel, Adams, Bradley, Festa, Klein, Matthews, Morris, Prielipp, Raya, Rojas, SWR, Keaschall, Lee, Gonzalez, Mendez, EROD.

Bradley, SWR and Lee are the only two are still young and have some real major league experience. 

None of those players have accomplished anything near what Garcia has, even just in the amount of games played. (440 major league games the last three year), closest Twin Jeffers (337), Buxton (313), Larnach (312).

As for the guys that are no longer young the only teams that can afford to extend players into their mid 30's are big market teams and last time I checked (actually every time I have ever checked) the Twins don't swim in the deep end with those teams. 

and for those of you talking about Sands, they Twins have him locked up though the 2028 season and age 31, who locks up a slightly above average middle relief pitcher after age 31? 

If a article is needed on who the Twins should extend the conversation starts and end with Jenkins and Keaschall at this point in time. 

 

 

[dxpavelka]

If Wallner is a good fit for this list it likely means that one of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez didn't pan out.  I'd sooner NOT put up any impediments for any of them.

[LambchoP]

I'd like to see how our young guys do over an extended period of time this year before jumping the gun on extensions. The team also needs a clear plan and direction in place before any big decisions are made.

[DJL44]

None of these are as good of candidates for an extension as Jeffers was last season.

[DJL44]

The Twins are already on record that they believe Luke Keaschall is a "future star". If they believe that, they need to put their money where their mouth is. If they won't extend him, then they don't really believe in him.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Shaking my head at the constant proposals to extend Boras clients.

Yeah, he does strongly believe in taking his best clients to free agency, and it's certainly worked for him.

I'd be interested in doing a long-term deal with Keaschall, who didn't get a huge bonus and might be interested in some security and certainty, while still being young enough to hit free agency at a good age. My confidence level in him is high, even with the injuries and questions about his long-term defensive position. But it probably won't happen.

[Jim H]

The two important words in the headline were key, young.  You don't do major extensions for any body who is isn't young. You also don't do extensions for anybody who isn't already key or shows unmistakable signs of becoming key. 

None of the people mentioned in the article seem all that close to fulfilling those two conditions.

[bean5302]

Walker Jenkins or Kaelyn Culpepper are the guys you extend, if you extend them because you really really believe they'll be great.