Twins Arbitration Updates, Decisions, and Discussions (Larnach Tendered!)

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s career .759 OPS v. Right handed pitching.

His BEST year was 2024 and his slash line was  .259/.338/.434/.771 with a 116 OPS+ …….

Average OPS for MLB was .711 in 2024 (Larnach was 60 points higher)

2024 …… 1.3 WAR with only 400 PA’s …..no defensive contribution in this WAR total

They let him get 20+% of his PA’s in 2025 (118 trips) v. LH pitching ………poor move! His OPS dropped to .727

Average OPS for MLB was .719 in 2025

Not sure where the stats you refer to come from?????

You neglected both defense and base running. 

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, old nurse said:

They can DFA anyone off the roster.

They can't remove until spring the 6 first timers just put on the 40 man.

 

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, old nurse said:

They can DFA anyone off the roster. That would make them eligible to be claimed for nothing. It really defeats the purpose of putting them on your 40 man to begin with 

I wondered if the 40 man is set now for the rule 5 making the Twins ineligible. It seems possible that they might trade Larnach or Julien for an A-Ball prospect or even two on the 40 for one and free up a space on the 40. If that happens before the rule 5 draft would they be eligible?

@rdehring responded to me helpfully. Does your response mean that the 40 man isn’t set? Otherwise I am not sure what you intended.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I wondered if the 40 man is set now for the rule 5 making the Twins ineligible. It seems possible that they might trade Larnach or Julien for an A-Ball prospect or even two on the 40 for one and free up a space on the 40. If that happens before the rule 5 draft would they be eligible?

@rdehring responded to me helpfully. Does your response mean that the 40 man isn’t set? Otherwise I am not sure what you intended.

There are 34 other players eligible for DFA

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

There are 34 other layers eligible for DFA

I am not communicating well. Can the Twins participate in the rule 5 and select a player given that they have a full 40 man roster today? I am well aware that they can still move players. If they open a space before the draft by any means can they participate. That is what we wonder. @rdehring had heard that they would not be able to select a player and wondered if anyone knew for sure. I searched and it is not clear. I think they can still open a space but the search results seemed to conflict.

[old nurse]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not communicating well. Can the Twins participate in the rule 5 and select a player given that they have a full 40 man roster today? I am well aware that they can still move players. If they open a space before the draft by any means can they participate. That is what we wonder. @rdehring had heard that they would not be able to select a player and wondered if anyone knew for sure. I searched and it is not clear. I think they can still open a space but the search results seemed to conflict.

There are 34 other players that can be traded Just as I could not find the you can’t DFA any of the 6 until spring I cannot find where there is a rule prohibiting roster moves. So go ask Chief. He might even be so kind as to say where he found the current rules 

[Vanimal46]

Giving Larnach a contract feels like the same mistake made with Kyle Farmer.

[old nurse]

21 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Giving Larnach a contract feels like the same mistake made with Kyle Farmer.

Farmer was coming off a career year and signed for a “small” raise. Small being relative to a baseball contract, not the real world

[DocBauer]

I am mildly surprised they tendered Larnach, though not completely. They played this game with Farmer previously and got burned. But I think a younger player, an OF/DH with some power and a solid career OPS against RHP MIGHT still have some value out there.

It's my understanding that recent adds to the 40 man can't be removed, but I'm not certain of "cut off" time frames. For instance, could someone like Kreidler still be cut at any time? Keirsey was cut the second Jackson was acquired for a MILB player in Eeles.

Based on that, I believe the Twins could decide to DFA someone like Gasper at any time and open a spot for a possible rule 5 selection. He was already on the 40 man roster and not a recent add.

I could be wrong, but I believe that a player can be offered arbitration, and then be DFA as the arbitration process doesn't guarantee anything.

I don't like to pay attention to rumors for anything other than conversation sake. So any idea of Larnach to the Reds for Steer is to be taken with a grain of salt, IMO. But the teams have a history. Larnach to the Reds, in their ballpark, actually makes sense to me. And while Steer is not a great ballplayer...despite some continuing angst from various bloggers...he could be a nice addition as a RH bat to the Twins, especially as a 1B option. Needs and $ seem to make sense.

Honestly, while I gave up on Naylor some time ago due to Twins ownership, I have become somewhat infatuated with the 30yo Nathaniel Lowe. I believe he was due around $12-13M in 2026 and the Nationals cut him loose. And I started looking at his numbers and I'm really wondering why? He's still only 30yo and has had a quietly productive career. And his career numbers against LHP are solid. He's Naylor "junior". Whether 1yr, 2yrs, or even 3rs, he's a great fit to SETTLE 1B for the next year or two as a solid producer for the Twins. At $8-10M for 1-2 yrs, maybe even 3, can't the Twins afford him to just STOP ignoring having a quality 1B in their lineup?

That's what I'd be looking to add through FA. Makes total sense for me.

But IF rumors might be true, I'd take steer back for Larnach in a heartbeat. It does seem to make sense in a rumored deal.

ASSUMING rumors are just that, I've been hoping Larnach might be moved for a team needing a solid, professional LH bat...possibly with a lower level prospect included...for someone's #4-5 pen arm that still might have some potential and control. Imagine a year ago where Houston or Seattle...giggles and examples...had a need for a solid LH DH/OF bat and had a "Varland" waiting to break through, but wasn't in the mix for a top 4 spot in the pen.

That's what I've been hoping for. Larnach and a lower level prospect for an upcoming pen arm.

But IF rumors might be true, I'd do a Larnach for Steer yesterday just to help settle the enigma at 1B that has been around for more than a couple years now.

[Danchat]

I'm not shocked they tendered Larnach, I think they still plan to trade him. As has been discussed his value isn't that high, but I think there are a few teams out there that would use him as a DH against RHs given his numbers against them, and last I looked there are a lot of teams with worse production than what Larnach did last year in the DH spot.

Knowing Falvey, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets flipped for a rehab project a la Outman, or another pedestrian reliever.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

There are 34 other players that can be traded Just as I could not find the you can’t DFA any of the 6 until spring I cannot find where there is a rule prohibiting roster moves. So go ask Chief. He might even be so kind as to say where he found the current rules 

Ask Seth. He wrote this;

"In addition, players added to the 40-man roster in November and those taken in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 40-man roster until spring training"

in this:

 

 

I'm too lazy to find a reference, but this rule is fairly common knowledge. It prevents teams from putting potential Rule 5 targets on the 40 man right before the Rule 5 draft, and then immediately dropping them right after.

New adds stay till spring. 

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They just added Orze as a bullpen arm and Jackson as a backup C. That lessens their demand for a Rule 5 pick. I still would have liked to see them add another reliever.

There is still time for that

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Ask Seth. He wrote this;

"In addition, players added to the 40-man roster in November and those taken in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 40-man roster until spring training"

in this:

 

 

I'm too lazy to find a reference, but this rule is fairly common knowledge. It prevents teams from putting potential Rule 5 targets on the 40 man right before the Rule 5 draft, and then immediately dropping them right after.

New adds stay till spring. 

The players added by the rule 5 draft cab be traded. So it is not true they have to remain on the roster

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, SD happy said:

Hope Kiersey gets another chance with another team. Yes, hitting really sucked this year, but he did provide some value with his speed and defense. The thing I really admired about him was every single time the camera showed him in the dugout, he either had a big smile or was cheering his team on. You could just tell he was living the dream being in  the big leagues.

You normally don't just enter the MLB & hit. You need many quality ABs, Keirsey never got them. Which is too bad because he was a great guy in the dugout. When he got some semblance of quality ABs he got some clutch hits. Wish him much good fortune, Twins loss.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

WTAF are they doing with Larnach? Sigh. This team. Sigh.

his BEST year he was below league median....and last year? Brutal. I just do NOT understand their lack of willingness to move on. Just awful for a team that is restricting its budget and filled with OF prospects. Just awful.

The small sample size of AAA experience of Jenkins and Walker is part of the reason to retain Larnach. The injury history of Rodriguez is another part of the reason. Poden and Martin (Thank you autocorrect for Rowan and  Martin). Have not had sustained success at MLB levels. That is why they have to retain Larnach. The infielder options have a worse prognoses for success than Larnach.  We shall see if the numbers put forth by MLTR that people use as for real contracts are accurate. The signings have been for less than what MLTR says, the non tender list is quite long. 

[Hubie29]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What would you give up for a guy who is below average and costs five million a year? Who you can only control for two years?

Maybe we can get another Alex Jackson type.  A backup position player that hits under .200.  Alex Jackson can sing a mean national anthem though. He is on tape for our high school games. 

[JBK]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The lineup and roster is nearly set: C) Jeffers, Jackson; 1B) Clemens, Julien; 2B) Keaschall; 3B) Lewis; SS) Lee; ut. if.) Kreidler; OF) Martin, Roden, Buxton, Outman, Wallner; SP) Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Bradley; RP) Sands, Topa, Orze, Funderburk, and four others from among the young fellas.

Falvey stated each of the last two years that he liked the team and they rolled it back. He has been positive and stated that he expects further development just recently.

It is what it is. Unless someone manages to get the ear of a Pohlad, this is likely it. Ironic that Joe Pohlad is our only hope.

If Clemens is our 1B and Julien is even on the team, we're sunk.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, JBK said:

If Clemens is our 1B and Julien is even on the team, we're sunk.

Not my dream team. This is someone else's dream team (DF). 

FWIW, I posted 3 versions of a team for next year using Brock's GM Tool: $110M, $130M, and $50M versions.

All I can really say about the Twins current roster is "Go Rockies." 

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You neglected both defense and base running. 

I didn’t neglect defense - I said he got Zero WAR from defense (WAR was probably a negative adjustment as DH)………. we all know he’s not fast nor a great defender …….. any DH type - occasional OF, used against RH pitching in a platoon, that made $2M with a .771 OPS, is a win! If he wasn’t used in 118 AB’s v. LH pitching, due to weak roster in ‘25, his OPS would have been .750 plus again, easily. My point is Team doesn’t have many average or better hitters, so until some are ready and producing they don’t need to jettison Larnach at $4M.

My other thought is you negated that he can hit just fine v. RH pitching. Platoons are used across MLB and wish thinking more AB’s and opportunities will somehow balance a guy’s production just doesn’t work. In the vast majority of cases, particularly with Left on left, the hitter remains at a disadvantage through their careers.

Oliva’s career numbers are .690 v. lefties and .890 v. righties…….as an example.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You normally don't just enter the MLB & hit. You need many quality ABs, Keirsey never got them. Which is too bad because he was a great guy in the dugout. When he got some semblance of quality ABs he got some clutch hits. Wish him much good fortune, Twins loss.

They kept LH hitting Clemens - Julien - Gasper - Roden - Outman ahead of him. This should say something! These are baseball people making these decisions - they aren’t oblivious to the concept of development and proper opportunity.  Obviously, I too wish him well but am glad that the organization is slowly making needed changes.

[stringer bell]

14 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I don't always follow the full labyrinth of MLB roster rules, but I don't think (...?) this is the case.

The 6 players who were added to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft have their roster spots locked in until spring training, and the Twins aren't going to cut any of the 7 arbitration-eligible players now or they would have done so today. But there are still pre-arb players who could be cut (and those happen to be the guys who most people here complain about being on the roster, anyway); and anyone could still be traded. Any number of still possible moves could clear a 40-man spot before the Rule 5 in December.

That is the way I understand it. Many candidates for DFA, including McCusker, Pereda, Fitzgerald or Kreider and Gasper.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

The players added by the rule 5 draft cab be traded. So it is not true they have to remain on the roster

LOL.

A team trading for a rule 5 pick has to keep him on the 40 man till spring.

And as noted, new adds must also stay on 40 man till spring.

 

Piece of free advice: First rule of holes...when you find yourself in one, stop digging. 

[Brandon27]

i bet the trade alex jackson this offseason 

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Do you know what the number 1 surgery is today ???

C-section , bunch of coward women taking the easy way out , we have lost any kind of tradition in todays society  ...

This has no business here.

[StiltedGopher]

From a distance getting a former first round pick catcher who has MLB experience (Jackson) for a undrafted utility player who hasn’t reached the majors (Eeles) seems like a nice deal.  But damn, Eeles is one of those potential marketing home runs.  If he can reach the big leagues and do anything at all he will be a fan favorite- the kind of player that keeps you interested in the team when there is no other reason to be interested in the team.  

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

More like basement. He's never been good. Why would you think it will work this time? Where's the hope? 

Basement? You know what the basement looks like. At least I thought you did. 

[Riverbrian]

I get that some want to see Jenkins, GG and Erod like right now.

I'm with you... I can't wait to see those guys as well and they will be here sooner than you think. 

In the meantime... Trevor is one of us. Been a Twin his entire career.

I'm nothing but happy for him. He could still be traded... he could remain a Twin... either way... I'm happy for Trevor. 

The way he is being painted by some isn't even reasonable. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I didn’t neglect defense - I said he got Zero WAR from defense (WAR was probably a negative adjustment as DH)………. we all know he’s not fast nor a great defender …….. any DH type - occasional OF, used against RH pitching in a platoon, that made $2M with a .771 OPS, is a win! If he wasn’t used in 118 AB’s v. LH pitching, due to weak roster in ‘25, his OPS would have been .750 plus again, easily. My point is Team doesn’t have many average or better hitters, so until some are ready and producing they don’t need to jettison Larnach at $4M.

My other thought is you negated that he can hit just fine v. RH pitching. Platoons are used across MLB and wish thinking more AB’s and opportunities will somehow balance a guy’s production just doesn’t work. In the vast majority of cases, particularly with Left on left, the hitter remains at a disadvantage through their careers.

Oliva’s career numbers are .690 v. lefties and .890 v. righties…….as an example.

In looking at the tendering of Larnach I'll choose to have a positive view this morning. He still could be traded. But he is a league average hitter for say 4mil. That's not a bad deal. We have a new manager and coaches who maybe just maybe could get more out of him. Is he keeping Gonzalez, etc off the team? With a new manager in place I'm hopeful not. But is he keeping a a Mickey Gasper type off of the team? Quite likely. Who would I rather have Larnach or Gasper? Not even a choice. Also with a new Manager I'm hopeful that if he is struggling at .180 through May that he won't be playing. So with my view today I'm fine with having Larnach on the team for another season. It's not like this team has an abundance of league average hitters is it? Who would we rather have on the team? A .130 hitting player making minimum or a guy hitting .240 with 17HR making 4mil? We want the team to spend money and they just did. If we base a players salary on WAR and the consensus is 1 WAR is worth 8mil then Trevor is costing us half of that. Not a terrible deal actually. And he still could be traded, but if not this is not a killer deal for one year.

[mickster]

16 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

With Larnach tendered where does that leave Roden, Gonzalez, Rodriguez? If he's not traded he will play. We know that much.

Heres hoping that they are working on a trade involving ERod

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

In looking at the tendering of Larnach I'll choose to have a positive view this morning. He still could be traded. But he is a league average hitter for say 4mil. That's not a bad deal. We have a new manager and coaches who maybe just maybe could get more out of him. Is he keeping Gonzalez, etc off the team? With a new manager in place I'm hopeful not. But is he keeping a a Mickey Gasper type off of the team? Quite likely. Who would I rather have Larnach or Gasper? Not even a choice. Also with a new Manager I'm hopeful that if he is struggling at .180 through May that he won't be playing. So with my view today I'm fine with having Larnach on the team for another season. It's not like this team has an abundance of league average hitters is it? Who would we rather have on the team? A .130 hitting player making minimum or a guy hitting .240 with 17HR making 4mil? We want the team to spend money and they just did. If we base a players salary on WAR and the consensus is 1 WAR is worth 8mil then Trevor is costing us half of that. Not a terrible deal actually. And he still could be traded, but if not this is not a killer deal for one year.

Not personal here, but I don’t understand why many at TD point to Career stats or one year removed stats if it’s someone they like and those stats show a positive BUT if the advantage (or the negative) is looking at only the previous year for the argument, then that’s gospel on the Player.

Larnach:

Spotty play due to nuisance injuries and mixed (streaky) production prior to ‘24.

2024 - 116 OPS+ with 15 HRs in 400PA’s. Platooned against predominantly RH pitching. He had a .771 OPS

2025 - 99 OPS+ with 17 HR’s in 567 PA’s. Difference for ‘25 is 118 AB’s v. LH pitching. Larnach still had a .727 OPS 

Continue to just Platoon him!

100 OPS+ is average for MLB hitter

OPS in MLB for ‘24 was .711, for ‘25 was .719

I get he doesn’t bring speed & real good defense ……… Team has other OF’s. Not too many hitters.

$4M is hardly a prohibitive salary.