Road to a Rebound: Brooks Lee

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Earlier this week, I provided an overview of the grim state of affairs for the Twins lineup. In short, nearly every hitter ended the season in a downward trend, leaving it difficult to feel a sense of optimism regarding an offense that was well below average in 2025 and gave away one of its better bats (faint praise) in Carlos Correa.

They have some work to do in the bullpen, obviously, but if the relief corps won't matter much if the Twins can't build leads. There's probably not a lot of help on the way for a lineup that ranked 23rd in runs scored, and rising prospects likely won't be quite ready for a full-fledged impact, so Minnesota's improvement is going to hinge on a handful of former top prospects and top draft picks to lead the charge. 

In this new series, we'll examine what a rebound season would look like for five of these hitters, including the ingredients needed to make it happen. We begin today with a player whose outlook might be as closely tied to that of the team in 2026 as anyone. 

Stuck in the Mud After a Hot Start in MLB
When he first arrived in the big leagues, Brooks Lee looked like the real deal. He'd been demolishing Triple-A last summer before his MLB promotion in early July, and wasted no time piling up hits as a Twin, with 11 in his first six games. In 185 games and 695 plate appearances since, he has slashed .227/.275/.348 with a negative-0.3 fWAR. Here's the list of Twins hitters who have been less valuable over that span, according to FanGraphs: Manuel Margot, James Outman, Carson McCusker, Mickey Gasper, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda.

Production-wise, Lee exists at the level of washouts and fringe major-league players. He's had some bursts of power-hitting along with a BABIP-driven hot streak this past June, but his flashes have persistently been canceled out by prolonged droughts.  

Turning 25 this offseason and now with considerable MLB experience under his belt, Lee is past the point of growing pains. He's firmly beyond prospect status and establishing himself as a pretty low-caliber big-leaguer. But he's still relatively young, and those occasional glimpses of power, along with his long track record of making adjustments and hitting for average, do give some cause for optimism.

A Track Record Worth Believing In
When the Twins drafted him eighth overall back in 2022, Lee was regarded as one of the best collegiate hitters in the country. He went to the minors and raked at every level, pushing his way to the majors in about two years' time. Across 195 minor-league games, he hit .289/.360/.476, and he showed big pop at Triple-A.

Tapping into that power with more consistency holds the key to Lee's ability to break through. Hitting 16 home runs as a 24-year-old in the majors is impressive, all else aside. Just not enough on its own, as those homers came along with only 15 doubles, one triple and a .236 batting average in 527 plate appearances. 

A quick glance at his Statcast sliders lays bare the central issue: too much weak contact. Lee's sub-90 MPH exit velo is near the bottom quartile of the league, and his bat speed ranks among the worst. He has shown the ability to crush the ball on occasion, which makes him relatively hard to give up on, but too often Lee's swings produce soft liners and easy grounders. 

 

Muscle Up and Dial In, Kid
Here are some things I think we can safely say about Brooks Lee: he's never going to be a swift runner or selective hitter. His best position is probably third base although he can hold his own at short. There are a lot of limitations in place so it's vital that Lee fully maximize his strengths, and build an offensive identity around them. 

Those strengths, namely: bat-to-ball skills and a swing that is theoretically geared for power. The idea of Lee being a .370 OBP guy has more or less gone out the window, but it's not hard to see him hitting like .275/.330/.475 with the right advancements. For a capable shortstop or good defensive third baseman, that will absolutely play. 

From my view, reaching this level at the plate will require Lee to do two things:

1. Add some strength in the offseason. He simply needs to swing the bat harder and make louder contact on a consistent basis. Lee certainly has the build for it, so it's really about finding whatever ways he can — be it swing mechanics or strength training — to increase his swing velocity over the winter.
2. Unlock just a little more plate discipline. Often, the soft contact from Lee wasn't a result of poor swings so much as poor swing decisions — chasing a pitcher's pitch that offers little hope of a favorable result. Overcoming this mental aspect will be as important as anything he does physically. I've given up on Lee, who had a 31% chase rate and 6% walk rate this year, ever being a patient hitter. But a tiny bit more patience could go a long way toward getting Lee into more hitters' counts with more chances to unleash the A-swing.

Right now, based on his complete lack of progression as a major-league player, it feels hard to have confidence in Lee's outlook. And that is disturbing because the reality is that the Twins are all but committed to him as their starting shortstop for the foreseeable future. 

However, we shouldn't lose sight of who Lee has been on the baseball field, and what he could still become, even after an introduction to the majors that has perhaps redefined his ceiling and player type. No matter which direction they go this offseason, Lee is going to be pivotal to the plan going forward.

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[CRF]

The key to getting any of these young(er) guys to reach their potential...whatever that might be...is to get a manager and coaching staff in here, that will actually help them get there. That wasn't happening the last 6-7 years. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

This is exactly how they become relevant again. Getting their core hitters to play to their 75% percentile. They don't need to play to career years or even 90th percentile, but have to get closer to where they normally would be. Hopefully the right coaching staff for this purpose can be put in place.

[mikelink45]

Quote

Stuck in the Mud After a Hot Start in MLB
When he first arrived in the big leagues, Brooks Lee looked like the real deal.

Save and post - works for Julien, Miranda, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach.

Perhaps the essay we need is an evaluation of all the supposedly baseball savvy coaches and what they are supposed to be doing.  I noted that Popkins seemed to find himself after leaving the Twins way.  Please start the quality control coach and help us figure out why our prospects fizzle in the majors.  

[Otaknam]

Obviously Lee still has time to improve and get stronger. Bat speed is an issue, so strength training is one thing he should focus on this offseason. At this point he is marginal major leaguer, slow footed, with mediocre defense. So his offense needs to carry him. 

[Parfigliano]

"...complete lack of progression as a major league player..."  A disturbingly accurate description of every top hitting prospect to come to MLB  in the Falvey-Baldelli era.

[Old Twins Hat]

Twins don't need Lee to carry them, just hold his own, in the field and the batter's box.

He switch-hits, hits for some power, seems to hit in the clutch and can get his bat to the ball.

Best case is he becomes a solid, dependable player on defense who has good stretches at the plate, maybe even good years, and does not spoil rallies.

In short, if he's a gamer, shows grit and determination to win, I think he can stick.  

So far, and it's just impressions, he's a little goofy in the dugout and lacking drive.  Can't measure that, but, it is what I see, along with a young man who could and should get better-- if he wants that. 

Really wants that.  Not for his dad, but for himself.

[David Maro]

The biggest problem he has is he is a sucker for the pitch bounced in front of the plate. Every pitcher in the league knows it and throws it. The other thing is the manager and coaches only promoted swinging for the fences. If Falvey wants to keep his job then he needs to finish the job and fire all the coaches. All you ever heard was swing as hard as you can and again here you talking about the same thing. If you listen to retired players they say the pitcher is the one who generates the power to hit homeruns. 

If next years lineup is full of 200-220 hitters look for another 90+ loss season.

[jmlease1]

Lot of stuff to unpack for Brooks Lee, who looked like a high floor player at worst coming out of the draft and rising through the minors quickly. Is that player still in there?

The bat speed and selectivity at the plate are clearly an issue: he's got the bat skills to put the ball in play often enough, but swinging at pitcher's pitches rather than waiting for something in his favor is going to hold him back, especially with the poor bat speed. Improving both would be ideal, but even getting one of those things where it needs to be would be impactful.

Have to wonder whether there's ongoing impact on his swing from the back injury. Is that still holding him back from ripping line drives instead of lazy flies and easy grounders? He played 139 games this year so you'd think he was healthy, but back injuries are tricky things.

I just don't know if he has the range to stick at SS for a full season. He makes good decisions out there, generally handles the balls he gets to well, but the arm isn't particularly strong even if it's pretty accurate. (his arm plays better at 3B even though it's frequently longer throws he's able to set and throw harder)

He was pretty disappointing at the plate in 2025, but was actually better than he was in 2024. But an OBP under .300 isn't good enough and he'll need to push that SLG up to .400 to be a reasonable and consistent threat, rather than someone who runs into a homer by turning on a ball that someone left up.

I haven't given up on Lee yet, but I'm disappointed in him so far. My expectations were significantly higher. He looked like a guy with a good hit tool and solid fundamentals with a high baseball IQ, and unless the hit tool perks up, he's a utility guy who shouldn't play SS much, which limits his viability on the bench, especially since he doesn't bring any speed to the table.

[bean5302]

In order to rebound, they needed to have been good to begin with. The .275/.330/.475 line isn't impossible but it would absolutely be shocking. Lee's career xBA is .245 since he doesn't hit a lot of line drives and he's not quick enough to generate infield hits on the tons of balls he pounds into the ground with his "geared for power" swing. Assuming Lee's Max EV is reflective of his raw power, he might have 50 grade power with his game power probably being more like 40. A 200 ISO (top 20% of all MLB hitters) isn't something you generally see without 60+ grade power for a poor runner like Lee.

.275 AVG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by heavily reducing grounders from 44% to 35% and converting them into line drives from 20% to 25% and fly balls 29% to 33% and adding 2 ft/sec to his sprint speed)
.330 OBP (increase BB% by 33% from 6% to 8%)
.475 SLG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by increasing swing speed from 70mph to 75mph)

No problem. Easy off season regimen. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

The key to getting any of these young(er) guys to reach their potential...whatever that might be...is to get a manager and coaching staff in here, that will actually help them get there. That wasn't happening the last 6-7 years. 

The last player to be fully developed into a complete player by the Twins was Torii Hunter.  That was so long ago that Torii’s kid has come and gone in baseball 

[PatPfund]

Hopefully a new manager helps. As in checking in with players, discussing an offseason plan, and even checking in more to see how it's going. Exactly what the hands-off 'you all do your own thing' Baldelli approach that has left so many (Lee, Julien, Lewis) floundering after reaching MLB.

Still, you can only be shown the direction; the player has to buy in, and if Lee wants more of a legacy than "I was in the bigs once" he's going to need to dig for it.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Lot of stuff to unpack for Brooks Lee, who looked like a high floor player at worst coming out of the draft and rising through the minors quickly. Is that player still in there?

High floor draft pick means a player that will make the major leagues and be a replacement level player. He's met his expectations. And this is why teams don't really prioritize high floor players in the early rounds of the draft. 

[thelanges5]

Suggestion number 2 is a must. Stop swinging at crap; his bat-to-ball skills have become a liability in the MLB. Just because you can get your bat to the ball doesn’t mean you always should. Miranda was similar in this way.

Can he go to an agility camp? Lee will never be a speedster, but if he can increase his range, even a foot in either direction, he becomes a much better defender. His slow footedness also turns many of his should be doubles into singles.

[AKTwinsFan]

He should absolutely work on his speed. He's got good bat to ball skills, just needs to get a little more athletic! 

[UpstateNewYorker]

Hindsight is 20-20 and all that, but it's hard to understand how a player with Lee's limited athletic ability went so high in the draft.  

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

High floor draft pick means a player that will make the major leagues and be a replacement level player. He's met his expectations. And this is why teams don't really prioritize high floor players in the early rounds of the draft. 

That's one definition, but I don't think it's all that universal. in the context of all draft picks, making MLB and being replacement level is a real feat, but expectations were unquestionably higher for Brooks Lee, who was a Top 100 prospect (and not just a guy who snuck in to the 90's), played in the Futures Game, and wasn't there just on scholarship by virtue of a top draft spot: he produced in the minors and moved up quickly like a college hitter should.

It's part of why I keep thinking about the back injury and whether it's changed his profile. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The last player to be fully developed into a complete player by the Twins was Torii Hunter.  That was so long ago that Torii’s kid has come and gone in baseball 

Mauer and Morneau might argue with you. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The last player to be fully developed into a complete player by the Twins was Torii Hunter.  That was so long ago that Torii’s kid has come and gone in baseball 

I’m 100% in your camp.  And the best thing that could happen to Lee, Julien, Wallner, Lewis, et al is a change in the coaching staff (starting with Rocco) and the approach to developing our talented  prospects.

Having said that, Arraez and Buxton both were originally drafted/signed by the Twins post Hunter (in addition to Mauer and Morneau) and rose through the system to become pretty darn good players (and All Stars).  Falvey/Rocco get only partial credit for those two.  But, otherwise, Jeffers is the closest one can come to finding another position player.

[rv78]

47 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Hindsight is 20-20 and all that, but it's hard to understand how a player with Lee's limited athletic ability went so high in the draft.  

It's not hard to understand when you look at the person in charge in the FO making the decisions. How many prospects that are considered shortstops has he drafted that can't play the position at a major league caliber level once they get to the majors? What is his infatuation with lefthanded hitting corner outfielders? Or any player he drafts or trades for that is a defensive liability. Guess what happens when all of the sudden they can't hit either? They become replacement level type players that no team can win on a consistant basis with. That is the current state of the Twins and Falvey constructed it. The next NEW Manager will have to be a magician to get the current players to hit better, field better and win games when it counts. Good Luck!

[tony&rodney]

We will almost certainly see Brooks Lee out at Shortstop to begin 2026. Hopefully he can improve and hold the position until a better option pushes him off the spot. Lee might make some physical improvements (strength, flexibility) this winter. Players do improve on swing decisions. Maybe Brooks also adds some more bat speed. Young players can improve. The downside is that Lee is pretty slow and that won't really change too much. I'm hoping for the best.

[LewFordLives]

For those pinning blame on the coaching staff, coaching can help, but at the end of the day the player has to make the adjustments.

I'm sure the Twins are always looking to improve player development throughout the organization, but the odds are still stacked against even the best prospects. The transition to MLB is hard. If you look at the first round of 2022, Brooks Lee is one of the few who has actually made it to the majors. Only three (Holliday, Neto, Horton) have shown any promise.

[LambchoP]

I think Culpeper is going to be our long term SS which leaves Lee at 3rd or as a capable infield utility guy.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Mauer and Morneau might argue with you. 

Well, I was going to say Cuddyer. Mauer and Morneau were pretty talented from the get go, Hunter had a couple of years of OTJ major league learning before he blossomed, as did Cuddyer  

[WilliesWorld24]

Sell, Mortimer, Sell! Lee is not a future cornerstone player at any position - move it along.
 

We have seen this movie before -past cornerstone 3B Jose Miranda. Great bat to ball skills, some slug/pop, better walk rate than Lee. Poor plate discipline with great bat to ball skills results in weak contact. MLB pitchers don’t need to throw strikes and Miranda has flailed his way out of the Twins plans and perhaps MLB. 
 

I appreciate the article, Nick, and want to have hope for the future. However, Brooks has no skills to dream on - not an above average fielder, poor range, decent arm strength, no speed - and a far below replacement level SS or 3B. Baseball is a game of outs and Lee is a prodigious offensive outmaker. Sub-.300 OBP is not ever workable, particularly with the Twins feeble offense unless he is Ozzie Smith 2.0 (and he is not). I am extremely skeptical that Brooks can hone his command at the plate and get into hitters counts, take walks, and stop getting himself out at the MLB level. I hope I am wrong. At best, Lee is a rotational utility infielder. Let’s see what Kalen Culpepper can do in 2026.

Alternatively, as the Twins purge the roster of players not part of the next competitive window in 2028, let’s see if the FO can identify and acquire high ceiling hitters, premium talent, or lotto tickets for Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach …

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, CRF said:

The key to getting any of these young(er) guys to reach their potential...whatever that might be...is to get a manager and coaching staff in here, that will actually help them get there. That wasn't happening the last 6-7 years. 

So, Popkins got fired as hitting coach after ‘24. Everyone here bitching about approach and poor results from players for big chunks of time due to “poor coaching.”

Immediately, Toronto hired Popkins. Blue Jays, with essentially same core that didn’t perform to expectations in ‘24, took off! 4 guys at .300 or better - 7 guys at .265 or better. How does this happen?…….Popkins is clueless, it couldn't have anything to do with his input - right?

Players play & execute, on their own, in the box. Coaches tweak - suggest - encourage - build good habits - instill confidence………. players play!!

Blaming coaches for poor play from players is nuts, IMO.

Baldelli hit .290 over first 3 full seasons in MLB - he knows something about approach both mentally and physically. Earl Weaver had a .583 winning % in Baltimore. Don’t see Earl in or around the cage coaching up Frank or Brooks or Boog. He managed good pitchers and good position players and THAT is what generates W’s!

[Nshore]

Lee is about as slow as a back up catcher, and somebody had the brilliant idea that that was perfect for a first round pick ML shortstop.  Then the Twins fired the entire scouting department plus the guy who mops the floor on the second stadium level.  Coincidence?  I think not.

[Mike Sixel]

It's not like they used a top ten pick on the guy and he's been bad....oh, wait. 

[mnfireman]

My eye test of Lee's PAs tells me he is a horrible 2-strike hitter, swinging at some horrible pitcher's pitches and pitches just off the plate, just trying to make contact. If he can somehow improve upon this he becomes a serviceable MLB player.

[DocBauer]

Defensively, I think he has solid instincts. I like his hands, his ability to get the throw off quickly, and I think he throws well off balance. There's room to improve of course, but I don't believe he's seen as a long term SS at all. I firmly believe the more athletic Culpepper will be up by mid season and take that job for the next few years at least.

Offensively he's really disappointed me this past year. As I've stated before, he barely exceeded rookie status in 2024, so he didn't come in to 2025 as a very experienced ML player. I think he's actually got more power than was initially believed, but as Nick pointed out, some of his exit velocity and batted ball data is skewed by poor swing choices that provided easy outs.

He's not small. He can easily add a little more muscle to just let him drive the ball a little more consistently. And he may never be a big BB hitter. But my goodness, some of his swing decisions last year boggled the mind.

His bat to ball ability is excellent. It's a real strength that can serve him well in the future, and what gives me the most hope for improvement. But just because you CAN make contact with a pitch doesn't mean you SHOULD. I loosely refer to that these days as "Miranda disease".

When Miranda finally found the discipline to fight the crazy temptation to make contact with everything, he blossomed in to a top prospect. He had a nice rookie season and a good first half in 2024. Between a back tweak, a ball to the head, and even a bizarre hand injury early this past season, he suddenly became a flailing, weak contact hitter again.

Lee himself has commented that he needs to reign in the crazy swing temptation. He seems like a bright, enthusiastic kid. He's smart enough to recognize his primary issue. Does he have the mental fortitude to actually make it happen? THAT is the key, more than anything IMO, to him hitting .250-.270 with an above .300 OB%. The power is there for 30+ Dbls and double digit HR totals, even if he doesn't hit 20.

I can squint only a bit to see scenarios in the lineup where guys are moved around...for various reasons...and he becomes a starting 3B or 2B. But I honestly think his best role will be a Super Utility INF who plays all 4 spots, who plays almost daily, but doesn't have a fixed position.

Some might say that's a disappointing result for an early 1st round pick with hype. I don't believe that is the case. A guy who can cover the entire INF, provide some power, and have a better than leage AVG OPS would have tremendous value. It all really comes down to getting the BAT to improve to something closer to what has been expected, hoped for, and what he showed in college and in MILB. Still only 25yo when 2026 begins, and only 712 PA over 2 seasons, there's still a good deal of projection there. But he's got to start figuring it out and making some obvious changes, begining with some hard work this offseason.