Arbitrary Thoughts: OF Trevor Larnach

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

If they can't trade him then they definitely shouldn't tender him a contract at $4.7M. Even if they want him back, they should be able to sign him at cheaper dollar figure.

That'd come down to how badly they want him back. Trevor has no reason to agree to a significantly lower deal until the Twins non-tender him, and at that point he's a free agent and he can go wherever he wants. Are the Twins willing to risk losing him if he signs somewhere else in order to save a couple mil?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Larnach's reduced overall numbers this year were mainly a reflection in a changed usage pattern.

His OPS against righties (.759) this year was exactly his career average. What brought his overall numbers down was that he had 21 percent of his plate appearances against lefties, whereas prior to that he had only had 17 percent of his PAs against lefties. In his best year (2024), less than 6 percent of his PAs were against lefties. 

There's still a significant platoon split, but his OPS against lefties this year (.608) was somewhat better than the .571 he had accumulated against lefties in prior years.

I agree that it's borderline on tendering him, but a lot may come down to whether they think there is more improvement in the tank against lefties.  

Great post. 

There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with most left handed hitters vs left handed pitching across the league. 

There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with all left handed hitters vs right handed pitching. 

75% of pitching is right handed. 

Which way should we play the platoon split advantage? I vote for playing the advantage against the 75%. Others may feel differently. 

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That'd come down to how badly they want him back. Trevor has no reason to agree to a significantly lower deal until the Twins non-tender him, and at that point he's a free agent and he can go wherever he wants. Are the Twins willing to risk losing him if he signs somewhere else in order to save a couple mil?

They should be willing to risk losing him. This team can't afford to pay players above-market-rate contracts. They need to get bargains on everyone to compete with a $100M budget. If they keep him, the most likely scenario is they'll be sellers at the deadline. Nobody wanted him at the last deadline and they're certainly not going to want him at a higher price.

If he isn't traded by November, they'll have to non-tender him.

If he wasn't on the team already, nobody would be thrilled if they added him. Does anyone around here want to add a free agent LH-hitting platoon DH to this 40-man roster for $4.7M? I didn't think so.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Larnach had better defense numbers, and similar offense numbers this year than Wallner; get rid of Wallner and keep Larnach.

I'd be fine with trading Wallner for a catcher or a prospect they like. Unless of course they think he can become less 3 outcomes overall, I could see moving him too. I know he is a walking .800 ops, and his power is huge, but if they truly are moving more towards contact and athleticism, I'm not certain where his role is outside of either 1B (which he has never played) or DH. I know he is from here, but if they are changing HOW they play (including on defense) I could see him being moved to. Would not shock me.

[LA Vikes Fan]

There are two issues with Larnach. His market value is less than the $4.7 million projected salary through arbitration. He's more of a $2 million-$3 million guy. Whether he accept that from the Twins to stay there or agree to a trade knowing that's what the trading team would pay him seems unlikely before the tender deadline. For that reason alone, I think you trade him if you can and get what you can and, if you can't, do not tender him and then potentially try to sign him for less as a free agent.

However, the bigger issue is we don't really need him and have nowhere to play him unless he plays 1B. He's not good enough in the outfield and he doesn't hit well enough to be the DH. I agree with the poster that says it's either him or Wallner, not both, but I come out the other way. Wallner can't field much in the outfield either, but he is a potential 30+ HR guy who hit 22 in a down year, and he actually hits left-handed pitching some, so he can be a primary DH who fills in as a RF on occasion. We have to make room for Martin, and need opportunities to guys like Roden, Fedko, Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodriguez, etc. There just isn't room on the roster for both Larnach and Wallner. I would gauge the trade market for both and, unless there was some overwhelming offer for Wallner (unlikely) or some decent offer for Larnach (also unlikely), I would nontender Larnach. I would think about signing him to a smaller contract if possible and bring him to spring training in the hope he can show enough to be traded or as a Plan B if the young guys just aren't ready. It's more that he wouldn't be interested in that and would have better opportunities elsewhere so he wouldn't sign with the Twins if he's non-tendered. In that circumstance, I would be prepared to just say goodbye and give other guys a shot.

[gil4]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

.727 in MLB is better than .840 in AAA.

Is .727 in MLB at age 28 better than .840 in AAA at age 22?  

At age 22, Larnach had an ,842 OPS split between A+ and AA.  He had 361 PA in A=, 181 in AA, and the same OPS at both levels.

Which one would have a higher OPS in 2025?   Flip a coin.  (ZIPS like Rodriguez.)  

[bean5302]

Larnach is no longer an outfielder. He spent over half his time at DH last year and honestly, he only played in the outfield as a way to get a platoon lefty bat into the order when Wallner was out. It's highly likely Larnach is just a wRC+ 100 DH.

He's an easy non-tender because he could be signed at or very close to league minimum after non-tendering.

Despite his heavy platooning, his wRC+ 103 would rank 27th of 30 DH's with 1500+ plate appearances from 2021-2025. 

 

[mrtwinsfan]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

There are two issues with Larnach. His market value is less than the $4.7 million projected salary through arbitration. He's more of a $2 million-$3 million guy. Whether he accept that from the Twins to stay there or agree to a trade knowing that's what the trading team would pay him seems unlikely before the tender deadline. For that reason alone, I think you trade him if you can and get what you can and, if you can't, do not tender him and then potentially try to sign him for less as a free agent.

However, the bigger issue is we don't really need him and have nowhere to play him unless he plays 1B. He's not good enough in the outfield and he doesn't hit well enough to be the DH. I agree with the poster that says it's either him or Wallner, not both, but I come out the other way. Wallner can't field much in the outfield either, but he is a potential 30+ HR guy who hit 22 in a down year, and he actually hits left-handed pitching some, so he can be a primary DH who fills in as a RF on occasion. We have to make room for Martin, and need opportunities to guys like Roden, Fedko, Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodriguez, etc. There just isn't room on the roster for both Larnach and Wallner. I would gauge the trade market for both and, unless there was some overwhelming offer for Wallner (unlikely) or some decent offer for Larnach (also unlikely), I would nontender Larnach. I would think about signing him to a smaller contract if possible and bring him to spring training in the hope he can show enough to be traded or as a Plan B if the young guys just aren't ready. It's more that he wouldn't be interested in that and would have better opportunities elsewhere so he wouldn't sign with the Twins if he's non-tendered. In that circumstance, I would be prepared to just say goodbye and give other guys a shot.

Learn to play 1b  or bye bye Trevor

[mikelink45]

I am hardly attached to any of the current Twins.  They are the baseline - move them out and raise the floor. 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Rockies signed him for less than half the price the Twins paid him in arbitration the year before. I agree Larnach would get a contract if he were a free agent. My contention is the idea that they can tender and trade him. I don't think they'll find a buyer for him if they've already tied him to a 4.7ish arbitration number. If they non-tender him he'll get signed after he clears all the arbitration requirements for a couple mil. But I think people's thought that he can be obviously traded is significantly off base. I don't think they can trade him.

This. They tried moving him at the deadline this year and they couldn't make it work. Maybe that's because the Twins wanted too much, maybe that's because no one was interested. (I'm guessing it was more the latter than the former, but YMMV) What are the odds they can trade him after he's gotten an arbitration tender and there are more guys on the market? Or after they settle with him for $4M+? You're essentially making a pretty big bet that he can hit as least as well as he did in 2024, despite it looking like an outlier season.

I think he'll be hard to move as a league average-ish LH hitter who can't play against LHP at all, whose best position looks like DH, and adds nothing on the bases. (the increased aggression the Twins showed on the bases after the deadline didn't help Larnach, who remained slow of foot as always)

He's going to turn 29 before next season begins. Hard to see him getting better. And with the Cheap Pohlads in charge, we need the $4.5M

[LewFordLives]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Larnach had better defense numbers, and similar offense numbers this year than Wallner; get rid of Wallner and keep Larnach.

The big difference is Wallner is not arbitration eligible.  That said, I don't think Wallner should be guaranteed a spot in their future plans. He's gotta start showing improvement.

[Bodie]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

First off the Twins do not need to reduce payroll. It currently sits below $90M. The need is for adding talent and balancing the roster. The Twins have too many DH type guys. Trevor Larnach is a DH. Larnach definitely has value. What team needs a DH that can hit? There will be interest in him. Possibly the Twins trade 3-4 of their other DH types and keep Larnach. 

The Twins should definitely tender a contract to Larnach but gage interest in him from across the league.

Love how people keep saying unplayable guys are a DH... even when they can't/don't hit!

Bottom of the barrel at either position.  And at $4.5-5M per, it is an absolute no-brainer. 

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Great post. 

There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with most left handed hitters vs left handed pitching across the league. 

There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with all left handed hitters vs right handed pitching. 

75% of pitching is right handed. 

Which way should we play the platoon split advantage? I vote for playing the advantage against the 75%. Others may feel differently. 

Which is why I've never been so overly anxious about there being too many LH batting outfielders on the roster. All else being equal, as long Buxton is in CF, my preference would be for the two best hitters among other outfielders to be LH (or switch hitter). 

(That's not a Larnach-specific post, but rather one about the overall angst people seem to have on this topic.) 

[DocBauer]

I'll say yet again that I don't dislike Larnach, even though he's never turned out to be the player we had hoped for. 

I also understand that he was supposedly shopped at the deadline and nobody bit. But there are a lot of unknowns regarding that, as pointed out by others. No interest at all? The Twins asked for too much? Bad timing?

But the offseason is a different season unto its own. Now that teams step back, as a collective, and examine their roster and needs, will there be a team that sees value in a DH/part time OF who hits RHP with a .759 career OPS and decent power as a fit? Maybe a team short of LH bats with some power?

I'd like to believe he's got value to SOMEONE. Probably traded along with a 20th ranked prospect or so, to potentially bring back a decent pen arm or solid utility INF who can play a competent SS.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I'd sure try that before any non tender.

I can see value for the Twins keeping him. But at some point you have to rip the bandaid off and look at your system for players/results. Not everyone is going to turn out. But you've got Martin looking like someone who may have turned a corner. And you have a collection of 22-26yo OF that all offer a degree of talent/intrigue/potential in Fedko, Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Rosario. 

Again, they aren't all going to turn out. But when, if not now, do you begin to just open up opportunity and PLAY THE PROSPECTS?

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Learn to play 1b  or bye bye Trevor

Or cut him and spend the $4.7M on a free agent 1B.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

Love how people keep saying unplayable guys are a DH... even when they can't/don't hit!

Bottom of the barrel at either position.  And at $4.5-5M per, it is an absolute no-brainer. 

Well, he isn't on my 2026 Twins team, but there is an argument that he was the Twins second best bat. There is a big pile below him in the barrel.

[RpR]

41 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'll say yet again that I don't dislike Larnach, even though he's never turned out to be the player we had hoped for. 

I also understand that he was supposedly shopped at the deadline and nobody bit. But there are a lot of unknowns regarding that, as pointed out by others. No interest at all? The Twins asked for too much? Bad timing?

But the offseason is a different season unto its own. Now that teams step back, as a collective, and examine their roster and needs, will there be a team that sees value in a DH/part time OF who hits RHP with a .759 career OPS and decent power as a fit? Maybe a team short of LH bats with some power?

I'd like to believe he's got value to SOMEONE. Probably traded along with a 20th ranked prospect or so, to potentially bring back a decent pen arm or solid utility INF who can play a competent SS.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I'd sure try that before any non tender.

I can see value for the Twins keeping him. But at some point you have to rip the bandaid off and look at your system for players/results. Not everyone is going to turn out. But you've got Martin looking like someone who may have turned a corner. And you have a collection of 22-26yo OF that all offer a degree of talent/intrigue/potential in Fedko, Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Rosario. 

Again, they aren't all going to turn out. But when, if not now, do you begin to just open up opportunity and PLAY THE PROSPECTS?

 

IF - only if they have shown they deserve to be given a shot at the Bigs; hitting AAA pitching is not major league.

A fair amount who do well with AAA pitching, are far out classed by Major League pitching, while their gloves seem to be some thing new to them.

It is called Major League, not Little League try outs.

The so called Prospect ranking system seems to be a list by wishful thinkers but it is a bible to a lot of posters here.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, he isn't on my 2026 Twins team, but there is an argument that he was the Twins second best bat. There is a big pile below him in the barrel.

There are a lot of people on this site that I respect who disagree with me on this and it's OK... You are one of the respected. 

I appreciate you at least acknowledging the argument. 

There is an argument to be made in that regard. I'd say the argument is for 3rd best hitter on the team. Or 4th. But... Larnach is one of a small group of remaining major league bats on this current roster. 

Buxton and Keaschall were clearly 1 and 2 but after that? 

Jeffers is probably #3 but Wallner and Larnach are in that ball park and it could be argued for all of them. 

When people start talking about removing one of the small, tiny group of major league hitters. They are talking about removing one of the few. With miles of roster space below him that has to be addressed. 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

There are a lot of people on this site that I respect who disagree with me on this and it's OK... You are one of them. But I appreciate you at least acknowledging the argument. 

There is an argument to be made in that regard. I'd say the argument is for 3rd best hitter on the team. Or 4th. But... Larnach is one of a small group of remaining major league bats on this current roster. 

Buxton and Keaschall were clearly 1 and 2 but after that? 

Jeffers is probably #3 but Wallner and Larnach are in that ball park and it could be argued for all of them. 

When people start talking about removing one of the small, tiny group of major league hitters. They are talking about removing one of the few. With miles of roster space below him that has to be addressed. 

 

 

I do like Larnach but my 2026 team is 100% not happening because I'm suggesting major changes in order to improve defense, team speed, and hitting (hopefully). I have repeatedly put Larnach back on the roster because I actually believe he can improve as a hitter. If he cannot return what I want he works as my DH. We'll see.

In other areas  people will not like players I'm ready to move away from, partly because I believe that there are teams that are a better match for them and mutually beneficial trades should be available: Jeffers and Wallner.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I do like Larnach but my 2026 team is 100% not happening because I'm suggesting major changes in order to improve defense, team speed, and hitting (hopefully). I have repeatedly put Larnach back on the roster because I actually believe he can improve as a hitter. If he cannot return what I want he works as my DH. We'll see.

In other areas  people will not like players I'm ready to move away from, partly because I believe that there are teams that are a better match for them and mutually beneficial trades should be available: Jeffers and Wallner.

There are multiple paths back. Some longer than others but there are multiple paths.

Speed is a game changer and it's a clear weapon in today's game, sometimes you just need to create runs. 

Besides being a game changer... it just makes baseball more interesting for the viewer.  

Look everyone... they are utilizing all of the parts of the game of baseball. 

I know Larnach isn't one of the fastest players on the team but I'll say this:

The entire team (including Larnach) sure look different in regards to being aggressive base runners.

After Rocco made that announcement. 

[PatPfund]

Non-tender him, and I'll wish him well at his next stop (where I suspect he'll be making a quarter of the suggested arbitration figure).

[the_brute_squad]

Keep him. I know the numbers aren't there and he's not a defensive force, but he passes the eye test. Unlike Wallner, he can go the other way, get's RBI without having to hit a home run, and doesn't seem to chase (as much). I think a new manager that has a consistent lineup and doesn't pinch hit in the 2nd inning (exaggeration to make a point) could be the tonic he needs to turn things around.

[MinnInPa]

19 hours ago, Hrbowski said:

Rodriguez has a K% rate in AAA that's as high as Julien's in MLB. I think fans who are riding the E-Rod hype train are going to be sorely disappointed. I would say keep Larnach and trade him mid-season if the rookies have shown they can handle it.

exactly...i\m all for getting rid of Larnach and Wallner and bringing up Jenkins and Gonzales, Fedko, Roden etc.they cant do any worse ..but ERod has shown nothing ..nothing at all in minors ..i dont get the hype

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He doesn't have zero value. I don't see him on the 2026 team, but some team will give SOMETHING for him to get him for only 2 million or so in 2026. 

Twins make him a compromise offer at $3.2 - $3.5? He’s got a .765 OPS for career v. RH pitching - ……no deep dive here, from what I believe I’ve read. On a Team starved for offense, typically, rolling the dice with Roden/Outman seems ridiculous to me. He had 17HR & 24 doubles ……use as more of a straight platoon and his BA - OBP - OPS all go up considerably in ‘25. - right?

I know he plods around in OF but he doesn’t butcher a bunch of plays - I don’t see Wallner making fabulous plays, he’s got a better arm but throws the ball all over the place.

I can’t see letting relatively known offense/experience go until guys (Rodriguez - Jenkins - Gonzalez) are actually deemed “ready” in early summer. Could trade Larnach and another body to some team with injuries & a need.

Bottom line is, v. RH pitching, he’s a (the most) productive guy in the DH spot unless they go out and sign a star.

To me, trying to save $2 -$3M each with 2-3 guys doesn’t make sense IF trying to win. The Club either trades Lopez and sheds real money or they try to compete and budget $125-$140M for the total spend……….saving $7M on 3 guys isn’t going to help any serious $$ concerns.

[Trov]

Larnach should 100% be non-tendered.  He is average all around, does nothing elite, and we know who he is.  Sure, has he had some stretch of above average offense, yes, but every guy can get on a hot streak from time to time.  We have too many prospects that should be able to replace him for much cheaper.  Even if they cannot, you can find average corner OF all the time. 

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

There are a lot of people on this site that I respect who disagree with me on this and it's OK... You are one of the respected. 

I appreciate you at least acknowledging the argument. 

There is an argument to be made in that regard. I'd say the argument is for 3rd best hitter on the team. Or 4th. But... Larnach is one of a small group of remaining major league bats on this current roster. 

Buxton and Keaschall were clearly 1 and 2 but after that? 

Jeffers is probably #3 but Wallner and Larnach are in that ball park and it could be argued for all of them. 

When people start talking about removing one of the small, tiny group of major league hitters. They are talking about removing one of the few. With miles of roster space below him that has to be addressed. 

 

 

$11.6M of supposed worth in ‘24 - &1.8M of supposed worth in ‘25. “Potential” contract for ‘26 at $4.7M.

If he is used more as a strict Platoon bat at DH & OF maybe 20% of the time, it’s reasonable to assume he could/should have a line in this area:   ……. .270/.335/.765/.425 ……. nothing inflated there as his career OPS is .768 v. RH pitching. ……..in ‘25 while facing LH (more) somewhere around 20+% of AB’s, his line was the following: ……. .250/.323/.404/.727 with 42 XBH in about a 71% of the potential AB’s for one line-up spot. His strikeout rate was 21.5%.

Counter his AB’s v. LH Pitching with Gonzalez or like RH option. 

Gotta have a clearly better option before just letting him go, IMO…….to me, the $$ saved is a ridiculous argument and if $2M additional spend is that precious to the Organization then our rotation is going to get traded away as well.

[terrydactyls]

I have a serious question about the arbitration process.  If Larnach has no speed, plays awful defense, can't hit left handed pitching and is mediocre against righties, and no other team wants to trade for him, why does he get a raise through arbitration?  Seems like the arbitration process guarantees a raise regardless of performance.  That seems rather stupid to me.

[Otaknam]

Larnach and Wallner are redundant players with similar profiles. Larnach will cost more than Wallner because he is eligible for the arbitration process. Since outfield is a minor league position of depth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he is released or traded if a trade can’t be managed. The Pohlad fire sale will likely continue. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

$11.6M of supposed worth in ‘24 - &1.8M of supposed worth in ‘25. “Potential” contract for ‘26 at $4.7M.

If he is used more as a strict Platoon bat at DH & OF maybe 20% of the time, it’s reasonable to assume he could/should have a line in this area:   ……. .270/.335/.765/.425 ……. nothing inflated there as his career OPS is .768 v. RH pitching. ……..in ‘25 while facing LH (more) somewhere around 20+% of AB’s, his line was the following: ……. .250/.323/.404/.727 with 42 XBH in about a 71% of the potential AB’s for one line-up spot. His strikeout rate was 21.5%.

Counter his AB’s v. LH Pitching with Gonzalez or like RH option. 

Gotta have a clearly better option before just letting him go, IMO…….to me, the $$ saved is a ridiculous argument and if $2M additional spend is that precious to the Organization then our rotation is going to get traded away as well.

I've posted a lot on the subject. I've talked at length about the use of the platoon and the damage it does in regards to development. This isn't just a Larnach topic... the Twins comprehensively took every developing left handed bat they had and refused to expose them to left handed pitchers... every single one. Therefore compromising their development and that leads to compromised value.

Do you want to trade him to aid in this rebuild. OK... but... you capped his trade value and did so on purpose for potential short term gains. 

The platoon advantage numbers can't be denied. They are real... however that platoon advantage exists on the other side of the coin as well.

Left handed hitters also have a platoon advantage against right handed pitchers. This platoon advantage isn't really a focus when they are signing right handed handcuffs to protect the other LESS FREQUENT platoon advantage of avoiding left handers vs left handers.   

I have been saying over and over again. By playing the split right... they are playing it wrong. Play the 75%... not the 25%. 

Here are the 2025 league wide numbers that I grabbed back in July. 

LHH vs RHP: .744 (Platoon Advantage .041 75% of the time)

RHH vs LHP: .709 (Neutral)

RHH vs RHP: .703 (Neutral)

LHH vs LHP: .656 (Platoon Advantage .053 25% of the time)

Just dealing with the averages as they are and ignoring individual talent and individual talent is really the most important thing. Just dealing with the averages as they are. An overstaffed right handed lineup is basically neutral against left or right handed pitchers.

An overstaffed left handed lineup produces a platoon advantage three times to every one time that it provides a disadvantage. 3 times the advantage over the neutral right hander compared to a 1 time disadvantage over the neutral right hander. They have been playing the split wrong and compromising development by doing so. 3 times to 1 time is also a platoon advantage that works synergistically with the .744 platoon advantage. 1 time to 3 times is a platoon disadvantage that works with the .656.  

Yet... they go out and search for that right handed handcuff to avoid that 1 time... ignoring the 3 times and everyone is talking about Trevor Larnach today like he's the problem.      

Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien lost two years of experience, exposure, development, the chance to get better at it. The chance to grow during years where growth is critical. 

I've been asking for this to stop for awhile now. As I asked for it repeatedly... I knew that if it was ever granted... the OPS was going to come down as a result.

After being held back for two years... Trevor Larnach's overall OPS was going to go down when left handed pitchers are added to the mix. You astutely point that out. You are correct in pointing that out. Nearly every left handed hitter that faces left handed pitching is going to take a hit to the overall number. Yet... the 75% platoon advantage remains.

Not only is Trevor one of the few major league hitters on this current roster. He is also left handed and therefore equipped to play the platoon split the way it should be played.

His left handed presence in the lineup should be joined by more left handed hitters. More left handed hitters will make it much harder if not impossible to compromise the next group of left hander hitters coming through the system because the right handed Garlick has no room on the roster to steal development opportunity. Can't platoon if you don't have enough right handed cover.    

I'll stop short of saying that we owe Trevor because of the strip mining of his parts.  

I'll just say... that Trevor is one of the few major league hitters on this roster. We have a lot of non major league hitters on the 40 man roster that need to go first.  

 

 

   

 

[AKTwinsFan]

Even as he proved to be a very good lhp hitter Baldelli would bench him. He had a more productive season than Wallner. Less HRs but more hits and RBIs. The constant platooning of him though would make him cool off when hed be on a hot streak.