A Way-Too-Early Minnesota Twins 2026 Opening Roster Projection

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, rdehring said:

Third, I don't see the Twins non-tendering Larnach.  Although it seems many here at TD have zero respect for the young man, he has been one of their better hitters this year.  

 

Larnach turns 29 in February, his OPS this year 100 and career 101 and has a  WAR of .1. What would you trade for Larnach and his likely 5 million dollar salary? 

His overall numbers don't look too bad but he has been given 554 plate appearances. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Walker Jenkins may actually need to work on things. His batting line in AAA was not impressive.

Prielipp will be 25 next season and due to his past injuries, I don't expect him to have a long MLB career. Bring him up and use him in the bullpen.

a .719 OPS from a 20 year old isn't impressive in AAA?  What numbers do you expect from a 20 year? I am sure unless he absolutely blows up in spring training he won't come north with the team to start the season. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

a .719 OPS from a 20 year old isn't impressive in AAA?  What numbers do you expect from a 20 year? I am sure unless he absolutely blows up in spring training he won't come north with the team to start the season. 

It suggests he will have a very good career, but it doesn't suggest he's ready for the big leagues right now.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It suggests he will have a very good career, but it doesn't suggest he's ready for the big leagues right now.

He put up better numbers in AA and A+ then Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio.  I would either give him a starting outfield job to start the season, or give him a few weeks in AAA and get him up. 

[tony&rodney]

Might be a better idea to guess on the 2027 roster with so many unknowns for next year. Was anyone else surprised to see the resurrection of an idea to sign Rhys Hoskins? What about Jordan Montgomery?

Two minor requests -

1. Can people who have never seen a player play please refrain from making comments on their skills?

2. Is it possible to end any and all discussions/suggestions of moving either of Larnach or Wallner to first base? Neither has ever played the position (Larnach 1 inning in 2017) and no doubt their travel ball, high school, summer league, college, and professional coaches have already run them through the drills and put all thumbs down to the idea.

[Brandon]

I expect the Twins to sign 4 relievers this offseason.  3 of them to minor league deals with spring training invites.  I think Larnarch will be the DH and Wallner will become the 1B .  We don’t sign Rhys.  Hopefully we sign Jeffers and Ryan to front loaded extensions.  The Twins will sign a bench player likely an IF and someone to compete with Outman and Rhodes and Martin for a backup spot/ LF.  The Twins will mostly go after depth.  No reason to spend big since no one cares anyways.

[Nshore]

If they keep Wallner, they should sign Arraez and bat Keaschall and Arraez in front Wallner to make it impossible for him to hit a solo home run.

[tony&rodney]

44 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Wallner will become the 1B

It is more realistic for Wallner to be a relief pitcher. Did you know that?

[mikelink45]

Let the 2025 punishment end before this speculation starts.  Save something - you have months to fill with what ifs. 

[DocBauer]

Yes, WAY too early. But this is something I play around with in my head daily so I'm game to play.

CATCHER:

Jeffers and a $3M-ish veteran backup with Pereda as the #3 in waiting. I also agree on an extension for Jeffers through 2008. By then, Tait and a couple others should be ready. Jeffers gets some security, and he won't break the bank. 

INFIELD:

Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall are locks. While MY VOTE is for Josh Naylor at around $14-15M...maybe on a 2 or 3yr deal?...there are a handful of somewhat interesting secondary options such as Hoskins on a rebound. Maybe O'Hearn, who I've seen mentioned elsewhere. (Would it be nuts to bring back Polanco for 1B if Seattle doesn't want him back)? But there are no 1B prospects ready. They need a decent, competent bat and glove there. I hate to say it, but they may need to do another 1yr deal for someone. But that's all the more reason to invest a little $ in Naylor, who will be 29yo next season.

I'm OK with Clemens getting a shot for a bench role. LH power off the bench and the ability to play 4 spots adequately is at least interesting. He's played some 3B earlier in his career. Might he be able to be at least an "emergency" type there? I'd have him spend some time there in ST.

I really hadn't thought about Kiner-Filefa as an option. Would he come cheap enough? Even though K-Pepper appears to be on a "Keaschall-like" advance, he probably still needs some AAA time. Right now, I'd predict Fitzgerald opening with the club as a cheap utility option with a decent glove. Of course, they'll bring in some MILB FA to compete and hope they find another Castro. But I don't see a $ investment of more than a couple $M at utility, so Fitzgerald is the choice.

OUTFIELD:

Forget about any long term control issues, it's not unlikely Jenkins begins 2026 at St Paul to just get a little polish and get in a nice groove, and then come up. Not saying he won't make opening day, or shouldn't, but the FO tends to be a little conservative about losing depth. If he has a great ST, I'd be tempted to give him the job. But let's not pretend that beyond a little polish, a little more work time to work on the power stroke, an additional year of service time wouldn't be a bad thing.

Just about everything I said about Jenkins applies to Rodriguez as well. Except for the fact he's a couple years older and his option clock has already been ticking. Honestly, if he has a good ST, he's my 1st priority to just hand out a job in the OF. 

Wallner is in, and Larnach is out, hopefully in some sort of trade to bring someone of decent value back. Wallner fits best as the primary DH and part-time corner OF. But he may be in RF DAY ONE.

I say that because there's a difference between what I WANT, and what I think opening day will bring.

There's a good chance Martin, Buxton, and Wallner are your starting OF to begin with. Rodriguez and Jenkins come up later. Roden and Outman just might be the reserves, even if I don't like it. I still think Outman is 50/50 after proving once again he can't hit at the ML level. But if Roden has a solid ST, Outman can fill the role Keirsey had for most of this season.

Personally, I'd be OUT on Outman and offer him a MILB deal and give either Rodriguez or Jenkins a DAY ONE job, let Roden compete against anyone and everyone else...including maybe Outman if he sticks around...and call it a day until the Rodriguez/Jenkins "loser" is brought up to settle the OF for keeps.

ROTATION:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober all healthy hold down the front 3. They can afford it. Anyone can be traded at the deadline. SWR has been solid, might just be taking another step with his splitter, and might be out of options. (Not sure on the options). I think he's in the rotation to begin the season. Could his new splitter make him a viable pen option though?

Bradley, also out of options, would figure as one of the remaining rotation arms. The talent is there. Matthews has tons of talent, but hasn't been able to put it altogether just yet. So he probably goes to St Paul to begin the season. If he has a great ST, would the Twins consider moving SWR or Bradley to the pen?

Matthews, Morris, Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, and CJ Culpepper are the depth options remaining at St Paul.

BULLPEN:

OBVIOUSLY this is a mess. But you have to start somewhere. First comes Sands. After a tremendous 2024 he was mediocre this season, then looked really good following the deadline, then looked bad the past 10-14 days. But there's a good arm there. Ohl and Adams both have short comings, but also some intrigue. Both have a chance throwing 1 inning at a time. (I like Ohl and his changeup a little more). Funderburk...who I had given up on...has been much better post deadline. His last 30 days have been pretty darn good overall. Has he finally figured out how to get LHH out? Laweryson is a mediocre K arm who just gets guys out. He might be a decent middle arm.

That isn't much, but it's a starting point.

Prielipp and his new 2 seamer are staying in the Saints rotation for now. I also believe Morris will stay there as well. For now at least. I think Raya and Lewis are both relievers going forward. But is Raya ready? He probably begins the year at AAA, but what if he has a good ST? I know Lewis had a rough season, but he's got enough stuff to throw an inning, two once in a while, and can you imagine that crazy Knuckleball on 0-2 and 1-2 counts? He might surprise. And IF Festa gets the absolute best news about his TOS symptom, it's possible he's ready to go from early reports. If it's slightly worse, his ability to be ready for ST comes in to question. Anything worse, and he becomes a real question mark. But I think he's just "built" to be a back end of the pen arm and not a starter. But we can't count on him at this moment without more clarification. 

But what to do from there?

Despite being 35yo in 2026, I'd bring back Coulombe for 1yr. He's been excellent for the Orioles and the Twins for 4-5yrs now, and I'd be willing to bet he's got enough gas left in the tank for another season. But maybe Rogers back or Chaffin as options as well?

From there it's got to be a couple of just decent, experienced options. But they aren't going to be big $ signings. The FO needs to be looking at guys coming off poor seasons, coming off injury, maybe coming off a mediocre season following surgery. Pitchers looking for make good deals. Maybe a late 20's hurler who has just never put it together and is ready to transition to the pen to extend and re-build their career. You're smart enough to find a pair of arms from this category, you just might get a nice surprise. 

From there, you always look for some MILB deal fliers. That's how they found Thielbar, and Stewart, and could have kept Jeff Hoffman had they just been more patient with him. They also got solid single seasons in the past from Wisler, Clippard, and the likes of Blake Parker, among others.  So it's guessing and scouting properly, maybe with a little luck thrown in.

So there's no easy answer in the 1st attempt at putting together a new pen. But you have to start somewhere. 

A] Sign a decent 1B for 2026 at least. But they can afford a larger investment for Naylor unless the bidding suddenly goes up.

B] Sign a.decent, veteran catcher to back up Jeffers that won't completely embarrass at the plate.

C] Spend a few $ on the pen, but don't go crazy. And they won't. And just be smart/lucky with the couple 2-3 FA and the MILB FA you sign.

D] DON'T be afraid to keep and play the BEST young talent you have. EXAMPLE: Give Rodriguez a job if healthy and having a good ST. You can still send him down and bring someone else up if you really feel you need to. Same with Jenkins. Same with Gonzalez. Etc, etc, etc.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Can people who have never seen a player play please refrain from making comments on their skills?

No, this site is not restricted to the 10% who have time to watch all the minor league games. Those of us who watch the minor league box scores daily, listen to a few minor league radio broadcasts or read what other expert evaluators say, can comment as well. And there is free speech here so anyone can comment. Highly respect most of your posts but can't disagree more on this one.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

There's a good chance Martin, Buxton, and Wallner are your starting OF to begin with. Rodriguez and Jenkins come up later.

It surprises me that the Twins don't push players like Jenkins and Rodriguez more just to go for that extra #1 draft pick. It's not terrible if you find out they do need a little more time at AAA, after getting a taste of MLB. Maybe you find out one of them starts out great and then gets rookie of the year.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

I don't think that Johnny Pareda has earned a spot to be on the 2026 roster. Zebby definitely needs to be in the rotation. The Twins will probably be reluctant to move Prielipp to the bullpen right away. I think that E-Rod will be more likely on the opening day roster than Jenkins. It is nice to look ahead though

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, this site is not restricted to the 10% who have time to watch all the minor league games. Those of us who watch the minor league box scores daily, listen to a few minor league radio broadcasts or read what other expert evaluators say, can comment as well. And there is free speech here so anyone can comment. Highly respect most of your posts but can't disagree more on this one.

I gave you a thumb's up on your reprimand of my hasty comment. I should have replied to the poster who wrote an irritating inaccurate comment or just ignored it. Yes, anyone can comment. It was not fair to make that sweeping statement.

I will say though that I am frequently surprised by both positive and negative comments that don't exactly jive with a minor league player's play. Looking merely at statistics doesn't tell much of a story. That said I was set off by one specific comment and I was remiss to not just skip/ ignore it.

[DannySD]

Some good stuff in there and the Hoskins idea works well, and the payroll is still low even with Pablo. But one of those 6 OF spots needs to go to a  backup SS, or a FA who can do both. The bullpen needs a couple veterans, and maybe Festa and Zebby. Hopefully, that crew you list will fight for four spots, and the pen could be average-ish. 

Also, I think it will be E-Rod, not Jenkins, who starts with the Twins. And if I were Gabriel Gonzalez, I think I'd learn to play 1B over the winter...

[beckmt]

5 hours ago, Nshore said:

If they keep Wallner, they should sign Arraez and bat Keaschall and Arraez in front Wallner to make it impossible for him to hit a solo home run.

If he has men on base, he will strikeout, because the pitchers bear down. It might be a mistake, but I hope the Twins move Wallner.  I don't see a place for him next year.

[Brandon27]

Pablo,ryan,ober,Jeffers and Buxton will be gone this offseason and twins are not going sign anyone until least middle January 

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall are locks. While MY VOTE is for Josh Naylor at around $14-15M...maybe on a 2 or 3yr deal?...there are a handful of somewhat interesting secondary options such as Hoskins on a rebound. Maybe O'Hearn, who I've seen mentioned elsewhere

Honest question, if you owned the team why would you be willing to spent 28 to 45 million on a first basemen when there are so many may questions marks everywhere else? I agree with you on Lewis, Lee and Keaschall are locks, but they are still big question marks. Lee's OPS+ is 83,  Lewis's is 86, Martin's is 111, that is three starters that very likely end up replacement level, I think Keaschall will be fine but if he has dip in production his sophomore season, and if Wallner or Larnach (who shouldn't be here next year) play the same as this, and always fingers crossed on Buxton's health. If I am the owner I am not spending and NEW real money until this FO proves that it can field/develop a team of mostly above replacement level players. Next year  has the look of being as bad as the last few seasons or with improvement  and luck a really good team, but I am not spending New money on that until I see it. (I am not taking the September numbers too seriously, lets see how they do when it matters)

If Lee can get his OPS+ around 110 or higher, Lewis to that level, Wallner gets back to being one of the best left handed hitters against righties, Jeffers continues to be Jeffers, Keaschall continues to play like this, and Buxton stays healthy this could be a pretty great lineup and with the starters could be a super fun year next year with the rookies sprinkled in.  But IMO as an owner I would want to see those things happening before spending new money. 

[Brandon]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Yes, WAY too early. But this is something I play around with in my head daily so I'm game to play.

CATCHER:

Jeffers and a $3M-ish veteran backup with Pereda as the #3 in waiting. I also agree on an extension for Jeffers through 2008. By then, Tait and a couple others should be ready. Jeffers gets some security, and he won't break the bank. 

INFIELD:

Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall are locks. While MY VOTE is for Josh Naylor at around $14-15M...maybe on a 2 or 3yr deal?...there are a handful of somewhat interesting secondary options such as Hoskins on a rebound. Maybe O'Hearn, who I've seen mentioned elsewhere. (Would it be nuts to bring back Polanco for 1B if Seattle doesn't want him back)? But there are no 1B prospects ready. They need a decent, competent bat and glove there. I hate to say it, but they may need to do another 1yr deal for someone. But that's all the more reason to invest a little $ in Naylor, who will be 29yo next season.

I'm OK with Clemens getting a shot for a bench role. LH power off the bench and the ability to play 4 spots adequately is at least interesting. He's played some 3B earlier in his career. Might he be able to be at least an "emergency" type there? I'd have him spend some time there in ST.

I really hadn't thought about Kiner-Filefa as an option. Would he come cheap enough? Even though K-Pepper appears to be on a "Keaschall-like" advance, he probably still needs some AAA time. Right now, I'd predict Fitzgerald opening with the club as a cheap utility option with a decent glove. Of course, they'll bring in some MILB FA to compete and hope they find another Castro. But I don't see a $ investment of more than a couple $M at utility, so Fitzgerald is the choice.

OUTFIELD:

Forget about any long term control issues, it's not unlikely Jenkins begins 2026 at St Paul to just get a little polish and get in a nice groove, and then come up. Not saying he won't make opening day, or shouldn't, but the FO tends to be a little conservative about losing depth. If he has a great ST, I'd be tempted to give him the job. But let's not pretend that beyond a little polish, a little more work time to work on the power stroke, an additional year of service time wouldn't be a bad thing.

Just about everything I said about Jenkins applies to Rodriguez as well. Except for the fact he's a couple years older and his option clock has already been ticking. Honestly, if he has a good ST, he's my 1st priority to just hand out a job in the OF. 

Wallner is in, and Larnach is out, hopefully in some sort of trade to bring someone of decent value back. Wallner fits best as the primary DH and part-time corner OF. But he may be in RF DAY ONE.

I say that because there's a difference between what I WANT, and what I think opening day will bring.

There's a good chance Martin, Buxton, and Wallner are your starting OF to begin with. Rodriguez and Jenkins come up later. Roden and Outman just might be the reserves, even if I don't like it. I still think Outman is 50/50 after proving once again he can't hit at the ML level. But if Roden has a solid ST, Outman can fill the role Keirsey had for most of this season.

Personally, I'd be OUT on Outman and offer him a MILB deal and give either Rodriguez or Jenkins a DAY ONE job, let Roden compete against anyone and everyone else...including maybe Outman if he sticks around...and call it a day until the Rodriguez/Jenkins "loser" is brought up to settle the OF for keeps.

ROTATION:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober all healthy hold down the front 3. They can afford it. Anyone can be traded at the deadline. SWR has been solid, might just be taking another step with his splitter, and might be out of options. (Not sure on the options). I think he's in the rotation to begin the season. Could his new splitter make him a viable pen option though?

Bradley, also out of options, would figure as one of the remaining rotation arms. The talent is there. Matthews has tons of talent, but hasn't been able to put it altogether just yet. So he probably goes to St Paul to begin the season. If he has a great ST, would the Twins consider moving SWR or Bradley to the pen?

Matthews, Morris, Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, and CJ Culpepper are the depth options remaining at St Paul.

BULLPEN:

OBVIOUSLY this is a mess. But you have to start somewhere. First comes Sands. After a tremendous 2024 he was mediocre this season, then looked really good following the deadline, then looked bad the past 10-14 days. But there's a good arm there. Ohl and Adams both have short comings, but also some intrigue. Both have a chance throwing 1 inning at a time. (I like Ohl and his changeup a little more). Funderburk...who I had given up on...has been much better post deadline. His last 30 days have been pretty darn good overall. Has he finally figured out how to get LHH out? Laweryson is a mediocre K arm who just gets guys out. He might be a decent middle arm.

That isn't much, but it's a starting point.

Prielipp and his new 2 seamer are staying in the Saints rotation for now. I also believe Morris will stay there as well. For now at least. I think Raya and Lewis are both relievers going forward. But is Raya ready? He probably begins the year at AAA, but what if he has a good ST? I know Lewis had a rough season, but he's got enough stuff to throw an inning, two once in a while, and can you imagine that crazy Knuckleball on 0-2 and 1-2 counts? He might surprise. And IF Festa gets the absolute best news about his TOS symptom, it's possible he's ready to go from early reports. If it's slightly worse, his ability to be ready for ST comes in to question. Anything worse, and he becomes a real question mark. But I think he's just "built" to be a back end of the pen arm and not a starter. But we can't count on him at this moment without more clarification. 

But what to do from there?

Despite being 35yo in 2026, I'd bring back Coulombe for 1yr. He's been excellent for the Orioles and the Twins for 4-5yrs now, and I'd be willing to bet he's got enough gas left in the tank for another season. But maybe Rogers back or Chaffin as options as well?

From there it's got to be a couple of just decent, experienced options. But they aren't going to be big $ signings. The FO needs to be looking at guys coming off poor seasons, coming off injury, maybe coming off a mediocre season following surgery. Pitchers looking for make good deals. Maybe a late 20's hurler who has just never put it together and is ready to transition to the pen to extend and re-build their career. You're smart enough to find a pair of arms from this category, you just might get a nice surprise. 

From there, you always look for some MILB deal fliers. That's how they found Thielbar, and Stewart, and could have kept Jeff Hoffman had they just been more patient with him. They also got solid single seasons in the past from Wisler, Clippard, and the likes of Blake Parker, among others.  So it's guessing and scouting properly, maybe with a little luck thrown in.

So there's no easy answer in the 1st attempt at putting together a new pen. But you have to start somewhere. 

A] Sign a decent 1B for 2026 at least. But they can afford a larger investment for Naylor unless the bidding suddenly goes up.

B] Sign a.decent, veteran catcher to back up Jeffers that won't completely embarrass at the plate.

C] Spend a few $ on the pen, but don't go crazy. And they won't. And just be smart/lucky with the couple 2-3 FA and the MILB FA you sign.

D] DON'T be afraid to keep and play the BEST young talent you have. EXAMPLE: Give Rodriguez a job if healthy and having a good ST. You can still send him down and bring someone else up if you really feel you need to. Same with Jenkins. Same with Gonzalez. Etc, etc, etc.

Near perfect evaluation.  I thinkk McCuskin has a shot at backup OF as well and should be included in that mix.  This allows for 1 of them (Rhodes, McCuskin, or Outman) to fail and we’re still good.  
 

with how the rookies played this year , am not opposed to signing a backup OF in FA as well and let those three compete for the other backup OF. 
 

for 2026, I believe the Twins will go cheap at 1B.  Goldschmidt at 1 year 8 -10 million…. Not sure what he would actually make or if he would rather retire…..

 

[mluebker]

21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

At the same time... I don't have a solution for 1B or SS or C or the bullpen, 

Unless the Pohlads manage to sell, we may have to acknowledge that no external solutions are forthcoming and the Twins will have to play the guys they have. 

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Honest question, if you owned the team why would you be willing to spent 28 to 45 million on a first basemen when there are so many may questions marks everywhere else? 

This is the Twins fans’ dilemma. Who wouldn’t want to see a a couple of moderately competent free agents on the field, even another star or two? But whenever that happens it means other needs are being ignored or filled by bottom tier free agents and guys who have been DFA elsewhere. I’d rather see a handful of solid, competitive, everyday position players out there, and less musical chairs on the lineup card.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Honest question, if you owned the team why would you be willing to spent 28 to 45 million on a first basemen when there are so many may questions marks everywhere else? I agree with you on Lewis, Lee and Keaschall are locks, but they are still big question marks. Lee's OPS+ is 83,  Lewis's is 86, Martin's is 111, that is three starters that very likely end up replacement level, I think Keaschall will be fine but if he has dip in production his sophomore season, and if Wallner or Larnach (who shouldn't be here next year) play the same as this, and always fingers crossed on Buxton's health. If I am the owner I am not spending and NEW real money until this FO proves that it can field/develop a team of mostly above replacement level players. Next year  has the look of being as bad as the last few seasons or with improvement  and luck a really good team, but I am not spending New money on that until I see it. (I am not taking the September numbers too seriously, lets see how they do when it matters)

If Lee can get his OPS+ around 110 or higher, Lewis to that level, Wallner gets back to being one of the best left handed hitters against righties, Jeffers continues to be Jeffers, Keaschall continues to play like this, and Buxton stays healthy this could be a pretty great lineup and with the starters could be a super fun year next year with the rookies sprinkled in.  But IMO as an owner I would want to see those things happening before spending new money. 

A valid question. 

When I examine the roster...looking at every position...while I can find question marks almost everywhere, I also see potential answers everywhere. 

EXAMPLE: We have Lee at SS. If Lee can become the .270-.280 hitter and .320-.330 OB producer we've been believing he could be, we've seen he's got some power. We've also seen he's OK, solid at SS, though not great. We have the more athletic, more talented K-Pepper right behind him. And down further is an even better glove SS, probably, even though his offense more than likely won't match Culpepper. 

No need to break down the OF and the various options there. But again, while questions remain, there is talent to provide answers.

But IMO, the biggest hole this lineup has had for more than a few years now, is at 1B. And that should be the easiest position to fix/fill. That's not to say we haven't gotten a couple decent years of play here and there, but it's been sporadic. 

So with an open spot that screams for improvement, no prospect beating down the door to claim that spot, what if I can spend a little $ to fill it for the next 2-3yrs and not have to worry about it?

I keep bringing up Naylor as he's a perfect fit, IMO, for this role. While he's not exciting, he's also very solid, proven, and provides a veteran in a lineup and lockerroom that is starting to get younger very quickly. (Or should be). He'll only be 29yo, is a legitimate 20 HR LH bat, but he's also pretty solid against LHP career wise. Therefore,  I don't have to force a platoon situation. He deepens and helps solidify the lineup amidst all of those "questions" we still don't have answers for. 

And in the grand scheme of things, he really isn't that expensive financially. Does it have to be Naylor? No. But he's a perfect fit, IMO, and he costs $, not prospects. 

Even if it takes a little while to "settle" the other spots and get answers to some of those questions...such as how soon Jenkins is an actual stud for instance...Buxton, Naylor, and probably Jeffers are 3 spots that are stable. A couple others aren't far off.

So in other words, stability and production for a lineup that has been frustratingly instable and inconsistent in production the past few years.

 

 

[Jeff K]

I like guessing at the lineup for next season as long as we acknowledge it's based on current players.  I can't bring myself to predict the pitchers, other than I think they will retain Topa.  And I say OUT with Outman and IN with Gabriel Gonzalez.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

Near perfect evaluation.  I thinkk McCuskin has a shot at backup OF as well and should be included in that mix.  This allows for 1 of them (Rhodes, McCuskin, or Outman) to fail and we’re still good.  
 

with how the rookies played this year , am not opposed to signing a backup OF in FA as well and let those three compete for the other backup OF. 
 

for 2026, I believe the Twins will go cheap at 1B.  Goldschmidt at 1 year 8 -10 million…. Not sure what he would actually make or if he would rather retire…..

 

If the Twins are actually going to try next year, why in the world would 28 year old McCusker be part of that team (His speed and defense, lol)? He played the whole season as a 27 year old in AAA with a .795  which was 10th on the St. Paul team with players with more than 128 at bats. (lower than Gasper,  Julien, Bride, GG (who is 21),  Erod (who is 22) , Fitzgerald, Fedko, Martin and Cardenas) and a whole .24 higher than Keirsey, and less than Roden had in AAA for Toronto (.918)

I wish him the best of luck but I sure as heck hope it isn't in a Twins uniform. Same with Outman and Roden. 

Any at bat they would get would be taking at bats away from a REAL prospect that needs those at bats. 

The Twins generally keep 5 outfielders on the active roster and the locks seem to be Martin, Buxton, Wallner or Larnach, which leaves 2 spots, one should go to a rookie and the other should go to a defender/speed player. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A valid question. 

When I examine the roster...looking at every position...while I can find question marks almost everywhere, I also see potential answers everywhere. 

EXAMPLE: We have Lee at SS. If Lee can become the .270-.280 hitter and .320-.330 OB producer we've been believing he could be, we've seen he's got some power. We've also seen he's OK, solid at SS, though not great. We have the more athletic, more talented K-Pepper right behind him. And down further is an even better glove SS, probably, even though his offense more than likely won't match Culpepper. 

No need to break down the OF and the various options there. But again, while questions remain, there is talent to provide answers.

But IMO, the biggest hole this lineup has had for more than a few years now, is at 1B. And that should be the easiest position to fix/fill. That's not to say we haven't gotten a couple decent years of play here and there, but it's been sporadic. 

So with an open spot that screams for improvement, no prospect beating down the door to claim that spot, what if I can spend a little $ to fill it for the next 2-3yrs and not have to worry about it?

I keep bringing up Naylor as he's a perfect fit, IMO, for this role. While he's not exciting, he's also very solid, proven, and provides a veteran in a lineup and lockerroom that is starting to get younger very quickly. (Or should be). He'll only be 29yo, is a legitimate 20 HR LH bat, but he's also pretty solid against LHP career wise. Therefore,  I don't have to force a platoon situation. He deepens and helps solidify the lineup amidst all of those "questions" we still don't have answers for. 

And in the grand scheme of things, he really isn't that expensive financially. Does it have to be Naylor? No. But he's a perfect fit, IMO, and he costs $, not prospects. 

Even if it takes a little while to "settle" the other spots and get answers to some of those questions...such as how soon Jenkins is an actual stud for instance...Buxton, Naylor, and probably Jeffers are 3 spots that are stable. A couple others aren't far off.

So in other words, stability and production for a lineup that has been frustratingly instable and inconsistent in production the past few years.

 

 

It is not that I disagree with your logic about why Naylor would be a good fit, the question is would you pay another 12-15 million dollar contract for 3 to 4 years based on hope? and  from what I can tell that contract total will be closer to the 50 million than 36. I mean if he will take another 1 year contract for between 12-15 I would do it because if all the hope and potential doesn't pan out I could ship him and the remaining contract out. (like Arizona did) Unlike what the owners had to do with the Donaldson and CC contract. 

But I am also not as positive that all or even most of the what if's pan out, since the recent history hasn't been great. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

While I would love to see a quality FA pickup to play 1B, I just don't see it happening. I don't think the Twins want to overpay and I think any FA will require an overpay to come to MN after this last year. I think we will see a couple of FA signings over the winter for the bullpen, a trade of Larnach maybe with an A ball type for for a BP piece and that will be it. I also think they will wait until the deadline to shop Lopez, Ryan, or Ober both to maximize first half attendance and to maximize prospect return. They only get traded in the offseason if they can fetch an already ready/established MLB bat and I just don't see any of them getting that level of return, so I don't see that coming together. In other words, a very quiet off season again. With those assumptions, here's my prediction:

OF - Buxton, Martin, Wallner, backed up by 2 of Outman, Fedko, Roden, and Emma. They got Outman because they want a "true" CF as a backup so he has a leg up. Fedko and Roden before Jenkins and Gonzalez because of age - Fedko and Roden are both 26 next year and Fedko is a RH hitter who can play 1B.  Roden because he tore up AAA already and he's 26 in March, so it's now or never. They can get another year of control over Emma (age 22), Jenkins (age 20) and Gonzalez (age 21) by waiting 6 weeks and they need to see what the other 2 can do, so that's got to be the order.  I would love to see them DFA Outman and make him AAA depth and keep both Roden and Fedko. I think Wallner stays in the OF although I would at least see if he can play 1B. My goal would be Roden (he's the backup CF) and Fedko as the backup OFs so I'm going to go with them.  

IF - Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens, and 2 of Sabato, Fitzgerald, Julien, or a FA like IKF, Luis Rengifo or even Willie Castro so they have a backup SS. Clemens gets the first shot at 1B in a semi-platoon with Fedko in the hope he can raise his BA to .240-.260 from .220 and his OBP from .280 to 300-.320 and still hit 20-25 HRs. He's an average stop gap if he can. I am intrigued with Castro returning since he has really stunk in Chicago (.175/.252/.247(.499)) so he won't be expensive and may actually want to come back to where he was better. My best guess is one would be Fitzgerald so we have a real backup SS and he is hitting .222/.317/.472 (.789), better lately but in a very small sample size. Lee is the SS until someone else like Culpeper or Houston is ready. I'm going with Castro at around $3-4m as the other since Fedko can play 1B and Castro can also play in the OF, and he can run so he fits the new stolen base philosophy. 

C- Jeffers and Vasquez back for $2-3m in a 65/35 split. The pitchers like Vasquez and it's a way to keep guys like Ryan a little happier while they are still around. Pereda in AAA as the depth. Nothing changes until  one of the young guys is ready in 2027 (if we're lucky), 

Rotation - No real changes at the front 4 - Lopez, Ryan, Ober and SWR, who's earned it with this run in the last quarter of the season. Preview of the bullpen, either Matthews or Bradley goes there, I say Bradley with Matthews as the 5th starter.  Bradley, Abel, and Rojas all get starts during the year. 

Bullpen - Sands, Topa (exercise cheapish $2m option), Funderburk, Laweryson, Adams, Ohl, LH RP acquired for Larnach or Danny Coulombe, Bradley. Sands starts out as the closer, Bradley is a piggyback6th starter type behind SWR and Matthews mostly to stay somewhat stretched out.  The BP will be a work in progress for most of the year.  I expect Trent Baker, Andrew Morris, Mike Peredes, and Anthony Misiewiesz to all get shots during the year. I think they will keep Prielipp and Raya in the AAA rotation to start with. 

Gone and off the 40 man or on an MiLB contract - Miranda, Julien, Keirsey, Cabrera, Hatch, Tonkin. Outman (maybe). 

There you have it. A team from what we now have with a really 2 additions -  Willie Castro and either Coulombe or someone we get in a trade of Larnach. Roster out of ST:

OF (5) - Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Roden. Fedko.

IF (6) - Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens, Castro, Fitzgerald, with Fedko also seeing time at 1B. 

C (2) - Jeffers. Vasquez.

Rotation (5) - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Matthews.

BP (8) - Sands, Bradley, Topa, Funderburk, Laweryson, Adams, Ohl, Coulombe or guy we get trading Larnach.  

Batting Order - Martin (LF), Keaschall (2B), Buxton (CF), Jeffers (C), Wallner (RF), Lewis (3B), Clemens/Fedko (1B), Lee (SS), Roden/Fedko/Castro/Vasquez/Fitzgerald (DH or playing for someone else who is the DH). 

Payroll -Total is $95-100M, $90M plus the two additions in Castro and either Coulombe or the guy we get for Larnach. This includes the $10m we are paying Houston to take Correa.   

Record - If the starting pitching stays healthy and productive and the bullpen is average or better, around .500, 77-83 wins. If the rotation or bullpen collapses, 70-75 wins. If the starting pitching is better than average and the bullpen hoslds up, AND we find 2 more 110+ OPS hitters on offense from Roden, Fedko, Lee, and Clemens, or 2 of Lewis, Kesachall, and Martin are 125 OPS+ or better hitters and become true middle of the order bats, 84-89 wins.  Good times. 

[Mike Sixel]

Clemens has put up more fWAR this year than Hoskins has the last two years combined. I have zero interest in Hoskins, and I can't see why any team with a limited budget would want him. He has been replacement level for the last two years. I don't get this at all.

Need a backup SS for sure.

Preilipp will be in AAA rotation, though I'd make him a RP. I'd also make Horn a RP. 

Festa is out for at least 6 months, I'd guess. 

I hope they DFA Outman, but he could be on the roster (I hope not).

I agree with others, no rookie that is a possible star comes up until May, alas. 

[jmlease1]

Ideally, we'd be looking for a RH 1B for the 2026 squad who can punish the hell out of LHP who can hold his own against RHP. Sabato doesn't seem like an internal option (he wasn't great at AAA and seems like organizational depth at this point), and I dunno about Fedko.

With 13 position players you're looking at 2 catchers, 6 infielders (2 of which need to be able to cover SS), and 5 OF (2 of which need to be able to cover CF). There's a real question if there's a starting 1B, a backup SS, or a backup catcher in the organization right now.

Will the Twins be willing to fill an OF slot out the gate with one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez (or even Fedko)? Buxton, Martin, and Wallner will be back and I strongly suspect they will give Roden every chance to win a job. I'd certainly rather try the rookies than add a Margot-type, or bring back Larnach.

Keaschall, Lee, and Lewis are back for sure at this point...are they really going to roll with Fitz as the backup SS? If they actually sign a solid RH 1B, I don't mind Clemens on this roster backing up 2B/1B/corner OF and being the emergency 3B too.

Maybe it's Pereda as the backup catcher, but I'm not putting any expectations on him sustaining this hitting at all.

That's a pretty cheap lineup. It's also pretty questionable on scoring runs.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is not that I disagree with your logic about why Naylor would be a good fit, the question is would you pay another 12-15 million dollar contract for 3 to 4 years based on hope? and  from what I can tell that contract total will be closer to the 50 million than 36. I mean if he will take another 1 year contract for between 12-15 I would do it because if all the hope and potential doesn't pan out I could ship him and the remaining contract out. (like Arizona did) Unlike what the owners had to do with the Donaldson and CC contract. 

But I am also not as positive that all or even most of the what if's pan out, since the recent history hasn't been great. 

Totally get where you are coming from. And at some point, a signing like we're speaking about doesn't make sense. But considering how low the Twins payroll projects to be once Larnach is presumably moved out...$90M...and factoring in the minority cash flow to eliminate debt, the Twins have room to add to the payroll and still end up less than the approximate $140M that the BEGAN 2025 with.

I know you know this, I'm just rehashing to make my point. 

Philosophically, I believe in putting together a team with a mix of different types of hitters. The Twins, through recent drafts and a couple other moves, are starting to move in that direction. And then I believe in trying to compete yearly, whenever possible. I also believe in always having an eye on the future, which can mean re-tooling your roster. Cleveland and Milwaukee are good examples of mid market teams that do that pretty well. I think the FO has been slow to do that.

I seldom agree with the "blow it all up and start over" philosophy because history shows that doesn't always work, or takes a lot longer for a successful re-build to actually take place. We've some of that with the Twins in the 90's and the 00's.

So if I'M the one in charge and I see a need for my team that is this obvious, and I have a $90M payroll and room to add, yes I'd be willing to add that 3yr deal to my team providing the bidding doesn't get out of hand. If that happens, I then have to re-evaluate where I go.

Now, I understand there are no guarantees as to who is going to come through, and how good they might be. There's still questions about development of the talent on hand. Rodriguez, for example, is he going to make it? And how good might he be, or not be? But it's nice to have a number of options to roll through and see who comes out on top. Same with the rotation.

Give me 8 guys for an OF or rotation and I'll probably get 3 or 4 good ones.

But in the current situation "MY TEAM" is in, adding that proven veteran becomes all the more important, IMO, to stabilize the lineup. Buxton is only $15M before any bonuses. Pablo is about $21M. Currently, the $10M we will be paying Houston for Correa being gone will be the 3rd highest deal on the books for 2026. Barring extensions for anyone...which wouldn't kick in until 2027...the next highest deal for 2026 would be Ryan/Jeffers for around $8M each.

The remainder of my total team will be anywhere from around minimum to maybe $4-5M. I've got cost control for the next couple of seasons and a lot of minimum wage players either on the roster, or soon to debut. In theory, Correa, Buxton, and Naylor...in this scenario...all come off the books in 3yrs. (Lopez possibly as well). So that coincides very well with future raises for the rest of my roster. I've even advocated signing Jeffers through 2028, when other young catchers in the system should arrive, and that deal also expires at just the right time.

I know that's a long winded response, LOL, but I want to be thorough in my answer and how I see the finances of the team playing out over the next 2-3 years. 

Now, I need to spend a few $M for a couple decent/mediocre arms for the pen to help with the initial re-build there...along with some fliers...and maybe a veteran backup to Jeffers, but those are inexpensive moves in total unless I want to jump back up to a $140-150M payroll. (Which isn't happening tomorrow for sure).

So once again, yes, I'M willing to make that addition/commitment because it helps stabilize my INF and my lineup. And it helps my current team without impacting future payroll in a few years when certain players start to get more expensive.

 

[gman]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

It is more realistic for Wallner to be a relief pitcher. Did you know that?

Maybe create a new position. DH/RP and bring him in 2-3 time a week to pitch in relief and continue as a batter.