Could Someone—Anyone At All—Give Twins Fans Any Reason To Believe? Please?

[Aggies7]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That won’t change until ownership does. It starts at the top. Ownership isn’t likely to fire Falvey on down, so … same ol, same ol … until ownership changes.

True, unlikely to happen but they can do it if they wanted to. If they were interested in winning, of course 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

That won’t change until ownership does. It starts at the top. Ownership isn’t likely to fire Falvey on down, so … same ol, same ol … until ownership changes.

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Keaschall at 3-5 WAR Buxton at 3 WAR and Lee at 2 WAR you can build an offense around.  You have solid starters in Ryan, Lopez and Ober plus 5 other starters to fill the last 2 spots.  This isn't a 90 or 100 loss team.  You can't be running Martin, Julien and Gasper out there regularly (even with Gaspers 3 hit night).  

Keaschall is going to be a borderline top 10 position player in all of baseball next year? Jfc.....

Brooks Lee hasn't even pushed into positive WAR territory, but yeah, "build an offense around," that. You're definitely not begging for 90 losses...

Toxic positivity exists. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Nick for covering the Twins all these years, giving us thought-provoking articles & founding TD. 

I was a big Flavine fan. I loved '19 but I criticized them that Cave was no CFer & we needed one with Buxton on the IL frequently. Arraez wasn't a 2Bman & Polanco didn't have the ankles to play SS. I was greatly criticized for my criticism. Until now, I still believe mispositioning players is one of Falvey's biggest faults. IMO, '19 went to Falvey's head, instead of promoting the great coaches we had, he let them walk & hired poor coaches that adhered more to his weird analytical philosophies, often extending & promoting them. Popkins was a good coach he'd blame & let go. Players' evaluation & development have been bad. He can't see the team's needs, initiate & close on critical trades,  

It's never been about the players, as some try to advocate. So there are no players that I see that can step up & overcome the deficit in management. We could fire Baldelli, but Falvey would hire someone worse, probably Tingler. I'd be open to keep Falvey only on the business & pitching side & even Baldelli as bench-coach but IMO, It's too late for that right now, it's too toxic right now & would be better to clean house from Falvey down. 

To answer your question, who could bring hope back, where I start watching games again? We can get rid of Falvey & Co but what hope do we have that'll find a good FO? My answer would be Drew MacPhail. Have Andy MacPhail as at least as interim & if he's open put him in at president of baseball operations, to mentor Drew. I have advocated this for years. Don't wait until the end of the season. I didn't trust Falvey to be in charge of the deadline sell-off, how would I continue to trust him to continue the sell-off & the rebuild? I expect a turn around in the atmoshere, once this is done. I trust them to get the right people in the right places. Once the foundation is strong, then I'll start hoping & watchin the Twins again not before.

[Squirrel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

Could be. And that would be a start. But Falvey is still calling the shots. We’ve had this disagreement before, but changing managers is kind of a scapegoat move when I think there are bigger fish to fry. But, it’s a start. The only one I’d keep is Maki, for the on-field crew. Time will tell. In the meantime, I have my mantra … it’s only a game. I’ve spent more time and energy elsewhere this summer, and that is always helpful. I still follow and keep a peripheral eye on the Twins, but am just way, way less invested. 

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

We’ll see if there are any more comments made by players like Royce has been. Even then though, you still have a flawed philosophy that does not seem to emphasize the basics of proper game play.

[The Great Hambino]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

I want to believe you're right, but I'm afraid I don't share your optimism.

They have someone in-house in Tingler that a) has managerial experience and b) buys into Falvey's overall philosophy.  The trade deadline would've been a perfect time to dump Baldelli and take Tingler for a test drive for the rest of the year if they had plans to move on from him.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic.  I don't think the fact they picked up his option is the impediment to change that others do, but I just don't think that Falvey thinks the manager is the problem.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Good lord, are we really panicking about the upcoming youth based off of an extremely small sample size?

I am as ticked off about the current situation with the Twins as anyone, I do not need to retread the last 18 months here, especially how the trade deadline was handled. But this is not the mid-90's. The cupboard is not bare.

You can sit here on the comment board and continue to wail and moan about the current status of the Twins. You can complain about Falvey, Rocco, anyone else you want to blame for the current situation. Feel free to live in a world of negativity (beware that studies show that negative people have shorter life spans). I have barely touched the articles and comments over the last three weeks here because it is a broken record. The same stories spouting the same tone. The same people post the same old comments regardless of whatever the story content is.

The Pohlads do not care about the fans. They do not care about the product. They treat the team as a business, not a social responsibility. You need to accept this and move on. You need to accept the fact that winning is nowhere near the top priority for the organization right now. Winning will not even be on the radar until after the new CBA. All of the b**ching and complaining will not change that.

The past is the past. I advise you to enjoy the game for what it is right now. Be excited for Keaschall and Lee showing some life. Be excited to see Buxton be healthy and finally play like everyone expects him to. Be excited to know that there is a young crop of potential SP that could lead this team back to contention fairly quickly. Be excited to know there are still 3-4 players coming up in the next 12 months that could re-vitalize this team.

(The sad part is that the same people will read this comment, thumbs-down it, and say the Twins have need to fire Rocco and Falvey before anything good can happen with the younger players and the team, entirely missing the point of this comment.)

The tallest soapbox on TD....

[Brett]

Speaking of rotten ownership, I remember when Carl Pohlad saved us from Calvin Griffith in 1984. After 2 World Series titles, I hoped that feeling would last forever. 
 

Well, it hasn’t. But don’t tell me about having no hope for the future if you don’t remember the 70s and early 80s Twins.
 

People are saying they don’t care about this team, and yet dozens of comments appear after stories like this. Would you rather truly have no hope, or would you prefer a team that has obvious talent but can’t seem to get their poop in a group? Frustrated? Sure. Absolutely hopeless? Not me.

[bunsen82]

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Keaschall is going to be a borderline top 10 position player in all of baseball next year? Jfc.....

Brooks Lee hasn't even pushed into positive WAR territory, but yeah, "build an offense around," that. You're definitely not begging for 90 losses...

Toxic positivity exists. 

To be fair Keaschall has a 1.4 WAR so far.  (I am even accounting for some regression LOL).  As to Lee - yes I am much more positive than most and I have been watching him closely every game since the deadline.  Don't ask me why but he seems to play better when he is at 3rd or SS (thats where he played most of his minor league games).  He also has a much better approach at the plate than he did in July and the first week of August.  Notable improvement and the numbers show it.  He was -.7 WAR prior to the trade.  This is massive positive improvement.  But go ahead and say its small sample size and I am being overly optimistic.  Maybe I am.   I would much rather be positive than negative.   

[USAFChief]

31 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Could be. And that would be a start. But Falvey is still calling the shots. We’ve had this disagreement before, but changing managers is kind of a scapegoat move when I think there are bigger fish to fry. But, it’s a start. The only one I’d keep is Maki, for the on-field crew. Time will tell. In the meantime, I have my mantra … it’s only a game. I’ve spent more time and energy elsewhere this summer, and that is always helpful. I still follow and keep a peripheral eye on the Twins, but am just way, way less invested. 

We will see. 

As for less invested...I don't want to be less invested. I love baseball. The Twins are my team. I want to sweat out every game for 6 months because the results matter. I want the dejection of another post season collapse. I want to experience another 87 or 91.

I dont want to sit through seasons of "rebuild" where wins and losses are secondary to some far off imaginary future. 

And I sure dont want to sit through this.

 

 

[1985Fan]

My complaint with the Twins isn’t the sell off at the deadline. The 2024-2025 team was not good and a tear-down and rebuild was justified. You can argue about the execution of the tear-down; i.e. which players were traded and the return from each trade, but there isn’t much evidence that the team was going in the right direction or playing good baseball prior to the deadline. 
The rebuild is where I have complaints. Nick is exactly right; why should we trust Falvey to usher the organization through the rebuild phase?! He’s failed in his time as the head of baseball operations. The team plays a style of baseball that hasn’t been good enough and they basically continue to play the same way.
The key to a rebuild is the player development system. That has been a failure under Falvey Look at his first round draft picks that have not played well to this point; Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Lee, Sabato, etc. For a low payroll team, player development is the key to the future, especially first round picks.
Once the young guys get to the big leagues, they need a manager and coaching staff that will continue their development into quality ball players. Baldelli is not that kind of manager. 
When Falvey and Baldelli are gone, I’ll have optimism for the future. For the young fans here, this is the situation the Twins were in the early eighties. They brought in a new manager and coaching staff that emphasized fundamentals and playing the right way. That changed the culture and the team eventually became competitive, which led to championships. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

And this includes minor league player development. Maybe we can finally master the intricacies of BASE RUNNING

Little Leaguers do it.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins and maybe K Culpepper as the new, young core. 

If that is the core, we are talking about 27 or later? Basically 3 rookies as the core in 26 isn't really a core.

[Parfigliano]

46 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

I hope so.

[Danchat]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

Methinks the reason why the majority of people here think Rocco isn't going is because of the team being unwilling to pay two coaches at once... but you might be onto something with the undeniable issues in the clubhouse. That could force Falvey's hand. Philosophy, though? Rocco would have been gone by now if anyone in the organization thought that was a problem. 

[LastOnePicked]

59 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

I like the optimism, but if that were the case, I can't figure out why they would have kept him for the remainder of this season. Better to make the change after the fire sale and see what you've got internally for a few months.

I'm betting Rocco stays. It's sad, but I don't think Falvey would fire him, and I don't think Joe Pohlad knows enough about the team to pressure Falvey into making the change. Plus, cost savings probably matter most to this ownership group at this point.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

Last year they fired two coaches who didn't deserve it to attempt to quell the riots. That didn't work and the rioters are even louder this year. Agree, Baldelli might get fired just to draw some attention away from the ownership disaster.

So they won't be doing it for the right reasons, but they still might do it.

[Eris]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Starting with the "right-sizing" of payroll

This is not the real issue. The real issue is the inability to draft and develop talent. Since 2012 when Buxton and Berrios were drafted, what has been the impact of the Twins first round picks for anyone not named Buxton or Berrios. Cumulatively, it is about 20 fWAR (includes hitters and pitching). The pick who contributed the most was Chase Petty who trade for Sonny Gray netted 7.8 fWAR, followed by Lewis at 4.5 fWAR. Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato, Brett Rooker, Keoni Cavaco, Noah Miller,  and Trevor Larnach have failed to contribute either because of injuries, poor coaching  or lack of talent. The list of failures is really long and the list of successes are few. This is the main  reason the Twins have a poor team. 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Eris said:

This is not the real issue. The real issue is the inability to draft and develop talent. Since 2012 when Buxton and Berrios were drafted, what has been the impact of the Twins first round picks for anyone not named Buxton or Berrios. Cumulatively, it is about 20 fWAR (includes hitters and pitching). The pick who contributed the most was Chase Petty who trade for Sonny Gray netted 7.8 fWAR, followed by Lewis at 4.5 fWAR. Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato, Brett Rooker, Keoni Cavaco, Noah Miller,  and Trevor Larnach have failed to contribute either because of injuries, poor coaching  or lack of talent. The list of failures is really long and the list of successes are few. This is the main  reason the Twins have a poor team. 

Those last three picks by Ryan and company? Ugh....top 10 picks, and nothing to show for it. Not even one of three....just brutal. 

[nicksaviking]

53 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Methinks the reason why the majority of people here think Rocco isn't going is because of the team being unwilling to pay two coaches at once... but you might be onto something with the undeniable issues in the clubhouse. That could force Falvey's hand. Philosophy, though? Rocco would have been gone by now if anyone in the organization thought that was a problem. 

Yeah, that's the only reason. And obviously a big one, but here are the top 16 paid managers in the league (cropped because I'm sure nobody thinks the twins are paying a manager top 6 money)

So despite his tenure, he can't even crack the top 16. Even the Twins will pay some nobody free agent reliever 1M this off season, eating Baldelli's pay would be a very cheap PR stunt.

And bonus to the Pohlads, they can probably lock in some unqualified NEW manager for 750K to 800K per year to run a dysfunctional team nobody else will want to run. 

[twinstalker]

It's really hard:

1.  Twins develop their pitchers.  They seem to do this well.

2.  Twins overhaul from ground zero their hitting development and find someone qualified to oversee this.  Haven't addressed.

3.  Twins overhaul their drafting, specifically wrt hitting.  Haven't addressed.

4.  Twins overhaul their Latin scouting.  I believe this has been done, to what success I don't know.

5.  I am not a fan of Royce Lewis, but I think the managerial things that make a difference are not being addressed.  Namely fielding and the attitude toward its importance.  Address them.  

6.  They need help with the analytics.  As a statistician/data scientist, I see when they so obviously implement strategies based on "analytics."  I also see the fallacies they've fallen prey to.  They need someone who understands the theory of probability and statistics to oversee data decisions.  Address it.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

 Be excited to know that there is a young crop of potential SP that could lead this team back to contention fairly quickly. Be excited to know there are still 3-4 players coming up in the next 12 months that could re-vitalize this team.

Wasn't that the same story told in 18,19,20,21,22,23,24,and 25 under this front office? I mean there is always 3-4 coming up in the next 12 months. (I have posted the position list multiple times) and there has been a crop SP prospects that could lead the team back. (Balazovic, Duran, Alcala, Enlow, Thorpe, Canterino, Sands, Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Petty, Hajjar, Raya, Varland, Jax, Graterol, Gonxalves, Romero, Littell) 

I am ready to move them this group running the team, would the next group be better or worse? I have no idea but that would change my feeling of being disgusted to hope again. 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

It's really hard:

1.  Twins develop their pitchers.  They seem to do this well.

2.  Twins overhaul from ground zero their hitting development and find someone qualified to oversee this.  Haven't addressed.

3.  Twins overhaul their drafting, specifically wrt hitting.  Haven't addressed.

4.  Twins overhaul their Latin scouting.  I believe this has been done, to what success I don't know.

5.  I am not a fan of Royce Lewis, but I think the managerial things that make a difference are not being addressed.  Namely fielding and the attitude toward its importance.  Address them.  

6.  They need help with the analytics.  As a statistician/data scientist, I see when they so obviously implement strategies based on "analytics."  I also see the fallacies they've fallen prey to.  They need someone who understands the theory of probability and statistics to oversee data decisions.  Address it.

The drafts are totally different recently..I mean, athletes over slugger types (or a fast riser that can't hit at all). So that has changed, IMO.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I think you are asking is what are the examples that the Twins have that they have improved a player past their 1st few Games.  Ryan is a perfect example.  He has continued to get better each year.  Ryan Jeffers improved after a couple years of seasoning.  Buxton hit .225 in 2016.  Bailey Ober was ok in 21 and 22 before a very good 23 and 24.  Prior to this year I like Ober better than Ryan before the injuries and I think most here would have agreed with me.  Louis Varland,  struggled for multiple years before settling into the bullpen.  Griffin Jax was rough in 2021. -1.1 WAR.  Jorge Polanco was meh in 2016. 

Name one pitching prospect that has been anywhere near as good as Ober and Ryan were when called up, maybe SWR? 

Ober 21 starts 4.19 ERA

Ryan 5 starts 4.04, then 27 starts for 3.55 ERA

Festa 25 games - 5.12 ERA

Zebby - 20 games 5.88

Abel - 7 starts 6.43 ERA

Bradley - first 32 games 5.59, 70 games 4.81

SWR has been better than Festa, Zebby, Abel and Bradley

Varland better than the guys after Ryan and he ended up in the pen

Winder 15 games 4.70 ERA ended up in the pen

Jax 18 games - 6.37 ERA - Ended up in the pen

Sands 11 games - 5.87 ERA - ended up in the pen

But you and others want us  ignore what we have seen with our own eyes for the last X amount of years, and believe in a low probability reality? 

I hope all of those guys ended up being all stars, but I also live in the real world that says that is very unlikely to happen.

 

 

 

 

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Those last three picks by Ryan and company? Ugh....top 10 picks, and nothing to show for it. Not even one of three....just brutal. 

I took a look at the Twins hit rate on first round picks (including compensatory picks) going back through MacPhail. There's some grim pickings.

Andy MacPhail had 16 picks. 12 of them at least made it to MLB, and you had 2 legit star players in Torii Hunter and Chuck Knoblauch. After that? I wouldn't call any of them even a decent starter (Todd Walker is the closest: career bWAR of 10.5, only 1 season where he posted a bWAR over 2). He did draft Varitek, but since he couldn't get him to sign, I ruled him out. 3 top 10 picks, none were quality starters

Terry Ryan (I) had 20 picks and 15 of them made it to MLB. 1 star (Mauer), though I was on the fence about Span. 6 more guys who were at least solid starters (this is where I put Span, who never made an all-star team, etc) 6 top 10 picks, only 2 hits in Mauer and Cuddyer.

Smith had 9 picks, and only 3 made it to MLB. No stars here, only two solid players (Gibson and Hicks). Not great. Xero top 10 picks, though.

Ryan (II) had 7 picks and all 7 made it to MLB. But outside of Buxton (a star, even with his injuries) and Berrios (a solid pitcher for sure) none of the other firsts did anything. 4 top 10 picks; only hit was Buxton.

Falvey has made 15 picks and 6 have made MLB so far. (I'd argue you can't exactly count picks from 2023 onwards against him for not already being in MLB?) No stars yet. 2 solid players...but Rooker really "made it" in Oakland. But he was drafted here. I know some people hate Wallner, but in this context he has to be treated as a solid player. 3 top 10 picks to date: Lewis has been injured and lately ineffective, jury still out on Lee, and Jenkins hasn't made the majors yet.

Where does that leave us? Several things come to mind:

1. Just looking at first round picks doesn't tell us enough
2. It's pretty common for Twins first round picks to make it to MLB, but that doesn't mean a lot
3. The Bill Smith era was pretty bad, but no high draft picks
4. Ryan II started good and fell off fast, with 4 top 10 picks and only Buxton yielding anything
5. Falvey needs Jenkins to hit or his record on firsts gets very thin
6. Those supplemental picks have missed a lot in the last 40 years.

 

[Turtle Lake]

I'd guess that the clubhouse mood is a downer with bad mojo infecting the bats, brains and arms of players.  No surpirse there, after Falvey tore up the team and Uncle Scrooge declined to sell the team. There's a lot of grieving going on. The only thing, IMHO, that will turn Twins fans into interested fans is an announcement that the Twin Cities investors in the team are, rumors-come-true, a Maurer/Morneau baseball savvy group, and a like-minded East Coast investor.  I like Baldelli, but not sure if he's the guy.   

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Last year they fired two coaches who didn't deserve it to attempt to quell the riots. That didn't work and the rioters are even louder this year. Agree, Baldelli might get fired just to draw some attention away from the ownership disaster.

So they won't be doing it for the right reasons, but they still might do it.

I don't care if they fire Rocco just because it's a Wednesday just make him be gone.

[T.O.]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I actually am pretty optimistic there will be a new manager in 2026.

There are undeniable issues in the clubhouse, undeniably poor fundamentals, running hard out of the box is somehow "radically new strategy," and the team is way below .500 for the past year. 

I might be in the minority,  but I think he's a dead man walking.

I have had no hope but I will cling to the hope you are right. 

[old nurse]

First thing people have to realize is that Jim Pohlad still runs the team. He is still controlling the money. Second thing is, Falvey is his guy. How the trade deadline played out should make that clear. Joe Pohlad is just the press secretary and the face for the franchise so Jim doesn’t have to hear the things people say. 

What is next year’s payroll? Revenue-expenses+ maybe whatever tax money they get back from what they can deduct- benefits and payroll taxes= the player payroll. What are expenses? Atlanta had expenses on their financial statement of 505 million with a 235 million payroll There is the high end. Those numbers were cited by Baseball America. Dejan Kovacevic’s numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates Pirates, a team he has covered for 21 years, were 171.7  million. https://dkpittsburghsports.com/team/site-stuff/feed?page=0&content=pirates-losing-money-bob-nutting-investigation-mlb-dk

The Twins’ number is likely somewhere in between. Likely closer to the 171.7 than 270.  The MLB.com site list a lot more front office people for the Twins than the Pirates. The benefit costs last year according to Cots was 30 million.  Revenue in 2024 for the Twins was 324 million. A couple hundred thousand less fans and very little local TV revenue will decrease the revenue for 2025.  

Best case scenarios No drop in other revenue, FO is as cheap as Pittsburg’s would leave about 120 million for payroll.  More likely, the bloat in the FO is 10-20% higher and payroll will be about 100 million.