Crystal Curveball: What Will Minnesota Twins' 2026 Starting Rotation Look Like?

[Chris Hove]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have some decisions to make for next year. One big question mark is who will make up the five-man starting rotation. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober should be locks for three of these spots.

On the other hand, López will be coming off a shoulder injury that has cost him almost three months. He has made two rehab starts so far and will eventually be back with the Twins, barring any setbacks. It's not a calamity, but nor is it encouraging, either now or looking into next season.

Ober's situation is interesting; a hip injury took away his whole month of July, with a decrease in velocity, and his ineffectiveness might lead to a minor adjustment in the offseason. Ober has battled back with a decent August. Through four starts, his ERA is 4.09, with a very respectable 19:3 K/BB ratio. Regardless of what happens, his elite chase rate and his ability to throw strikes should earn him a spot in the rotation.

Of course, the biggest question looming over these three is whether any of them will be traded this winter, but for now, let's assume that each will be around and ready to take the ball next March. That leaves two spots to distribute, among a whole lot more than two interesting arms.

Rotation Rumble: Who Will Win the Final Two Spots?
At a glance, there will be five pitchers who should be considered for the last two spots. Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Mick Abel, and Taj Bradley should all be in the running for the final two spots. Let's take a look at each pitcher's case.

You would think Woods Richardson would be a favorite for one of these spots, but he battled ineffectiveness, which landed him in Triple A at one point in the first half of this campaign. An illness has cost him most of August. He has made two rehab starts and could be called back up to the Twins soon, though, so he has a chance to reestablish himself as a candidate in good standing before the end of the season. He's still only 24 years old, and even in this tough year, he sports a respectable ERA of 4.24. If he can prove he can throw more strikes and work deeper into games, he should lock down one of those spots.

Matthews has seen a nice uptick in velocity, which has earned him more strikeouts up in the zone. His slider has been his main out pitch, and a very reliable pitch for him this year. Opponents' .165 batting average and .278 expected slugging average are very encouraging numbers, but his location needs some improvement. Hitters have a .391 average and a .463 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against Mathews's fastball. You can see in the chart below where he pitches the best, and where he runs into trouble. There's a needle-threading problem here: he thrives when he can locate to the arm side of the plate, especially up in the zone, but there have been too many misses out of the zone in that direction—and too many just in the other direction, right down the middle. He might be a candidate for a realignment, sliding him over on the pitching rubber to create new angles of attack.

Festa is a lot like Wood Richardson. If he can locate his pitches better earlier in the counts and get a few more whiffs, he will see his splits drop significantly. He has good velocity with his fastball, but numbers say hitters are seeing it and hitting it hard. I don't know if the change in arm angle has anything to do with it, but it could be something for him to look at in the offseason. His plus changeup has developed into an excellent third pitch, with a 44% Whiff rate. It's good to have a put-away pitch like Festa has, and it should help him get noticed even more for a starting spot.

Abel and Bradley didn't turn heads in their Twins debuts, but both are still only 24 years old and will get an opportunity to improve. They might be dark horses to get the last two spots, but they both have major-league experience, and both have the stuff to develop into mid-rotation guys if just one or two adjustments come together the right way. They have good velocity on their fastballs, and each commands a really good curveball, both generating over 30% whiff rates. The need for them to throw more strikes and keep developing other secondary pitches might be the reason they start in Triple-A next year.

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It's good for the Twins to have options, considering the injuries they have endured this season. With that being said, who would you like to see get the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation next year? Send in your comments or suggestions below.

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[thelanges5]

Seems like every year we are reminded that there is no such thing as too much starting pitching. I would love it if they plan to keep Pablo and Joe around. With Matthews, Abel, Bradley in the majors and SWR potentially back this week, Festa may be on the outside looking in for 2026. 

[Major League Ready]

I am going to take a run at this assuming the sell-off at the deadline was a clear sign.  My guess is Ober or Lopez plus Matthews / Festa / SWR and Abel.  Bradley is the wildcard.  He could turn it around and be in the rotation or end up in the BP.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think we keep Lopez and Ryan unless Ryan can force his way out of town. Ober gets shopped, but not sure there's a big market or at least not enough to get us a bat unless we add a decent prospect. Assuming all 3 stay, I think next year's rotation is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, and Bradley. I see Festa and SWR moving to the bullpen - SWR as a swing starter/long man with Hatch, Festa in a high leverage innings role, possibly as the closer. The AAA rotation in order of callup to the MLB to replace inured or ineffective starter (after moving SWR or Hatch to the rotation first) is Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Andrew Morris, CJ Culpepper (up from AA). 

By the way, I think Hatch is forcing his way into the conversation. His 4 Twins appearances - (1) 4.IP, 0 ER, (2) 4.1 IP, 4 ER, (3) 5 IP, 1 ER, (4) 5 IP, 1 ER. Since joining the Twins he's had 1 start and 3 piggyback roles for a record of 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP - 18.2 innings, 6 earned runs. Three strong appearances, one bad one. Let's not sleep on him. He's in the BP next year for sure already (unless he implodes), and he might get a look as a starter.  

[Dawgzilla]

No one cares really, that is how bad team is, their projections and affection for ownership!  Twins can't even run bases right...Martin and Wallner both thrown out, Martin in a stupid non tag...or make sure ball hits ground first, not his only recent base running adventure.  Is this Knothole...and do they actually need to learn to bunt, steal, tag, throw to the cut off man, etc ., lat alone not grove pitches to hitters.

 

Good Lord!  No one will get the ESPN+ streaming option next year to watch this dog and pony show!  

Lastly, Mickey Mouse, aka, Mickey Gasper should even warm the bench; he can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

Edited August 27, 2025 by Dawgzilla

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I would be pleasantly surprised if Pablo and Ryan were on the team in 2026.

[DocBauer]

The biggest question is do the POWERS THAT BE want to tear the whole damn thing down? (Which also doesn't always work). Or do they want to field a solid, possibly competitive team in 2026?

While the pitching hasn't wholly stepped up the this season, or late in 2024, it's been the offense that has been the biggest issue. But Wallner and Lewis aren't throw away players. Buxton is great. Jeffers is on of the best offensive backstops in the game. Keaschall has arrived. Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper are so very close. And there are a handful of other position players that are really close to providing help as well. 

IF the Twins want to field a competent team for 2026, they will STOP the teardown and keep Lopez and Ryan. And I'll repeat yet again, if Larnach is moved, the payroll sits around $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan and arbitration numbers accounted for.

I just don't buy in to moving Lopez and Ryan because it's silly to have front line, playoff caliber starters for a team not expected to compete for anything. We'll, yeah, if you trade away your best 2 SP, OF COURSE you won't compete for anything. Both are still controlled through 2027. And YES, the pen needs to be re-built. But you've accumulated so many good young arms, you don't think you can use them? With a payroll of $90M you couldn't add even a couple relievers to help with that re-build? And are you telling me that you DON'T believe in Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper???

IMO, Ryan should be an extension candidate rather than a trade option. Or, again, do you not believe in all of your pitching depth and the position players you have on hand, and prospects you have developed that are appearing or about to do so???

Sorry, but that was a reality check to the FO and ownership who are a complete mixed up mystery at this point. Might have just as well spit in the wind, but needed to state what I think is obvious. 

Ober is susceptible to injuries here and there because of being 6' 9". It's what slowed him somewhat in his early days, but the Twins corrected his mechanics and he became the very good SP that we know. He's looked better after his rest. And he stated all along his mechanics got messed up at some point. Might have lead to his hip issue. Could just be wear and tear that happens once in a while. But Lopez, Ryan, and Ober is a hell of a good 1-3 for 2026.

After them, IMO comes Mathews as a virtual lock. The pure stuff and control is just too good to ignore. Other than game experience, what he needs is better "command" of his pitches. That means sneaking out of the zone more for whiffs, and to set up batters. The 5th spot is up for grabs between SWR, Abel, and Bradley. That's 7 deep. But let's not forget about Morris as the probable 8th arm. I think Rojas is only ready mid 2026. The recently promoted to AAA Klein shouldn't be ignored even though he's been largely left out of conversation. But he's also probably a mid season option. And what is the future of Raya? The kid gloves have come off the past couple of months and he's been throwing more pitches/innings and while as consistent as we'd like to see, he's thrown some of the best games of his career the past month or so. And what about Prielipp? Is he the biggest dark horse for the Twins rotation in 2026? Honestly, he's still "learning how to pitch" considering his lack of experience. I'd bet the Twins are going to tweak his repertoire with a 4th pitch soon, though I'm not sure what. Ready July 1st as a SP option next season? I believe ALL of these guys are 25yo or younger at this point. 

Notice I haven't included Festa, or Lewis, or CJ Culpepper? Nor have I mentioned LH Christian MacLeod.

I WANT Festa to be a ML SP because it's a great story and I just love seeing "Thin Reaper" put away guys! But there's always been concerns about durability. He's been REALLY GOOD though an order the 1st time. Not uncommon for a young pitcher. The 2 seamer he's been working on is for RH batters as that's maybe been his biggest issue so far. MAYBE he continues to work on that, or maybe the Twins help him with a sweeper, cutter, splitter instead and convert him to the pen for 2026. The shoulder issues he's dealt with tells me he should pitch 1 inning 3 times a week instead of being a starter. His max velocity should jump to 98-99 ish with a good slider and change. 

Lewis was the Twins MILB pitcher of the year in 2023, IIRC. In 2024 he had an injury setback and it took some time to get his velocity back. He's had a tough 1st full year at AAA as they've also adjusted his mix, and tried to put his crazy good knuckleball more to the forefront. But maybe they need to put him in the pen for max velocity...probably mid 90's...maybe add a pitch...I'm spitballing a bit here as I can't recall his current repertoire...and use that crazy mid 80's knuckleball on 0-2, 1-2, even 2-2 counts and suddenly be an effective weapon out of the pen in the middle innings.

Like Lewis, CJ Culpepper has shown great potential that has been interrupted by mild injury. He has a funky, short arm delivery. He has, I believe, 6 pitches he throws. Control isn't much of an issue. But from what I understand, all of his pitches are solid, but none or great. And his velocity tends to dip after a few innings. Again, what I've heard and read. None of that doesn't preclude him from being a potential ML SP at some point. But maybe he's Jax-like that he can crank up his velocity and throw a grouping of solid secondary offerings to befuddle hitters. 

MacLeod has slowly moved up the system as a LHSP who needed surgery after the Twins selected him #5 in the 2021 draft. Other than 1.2 IP in 2021, he didnt throw again until 2023. His MILB K numbers sit around 10 per. His WHIP is around 1.4, not bad. I've heard reports his FB sits around 94mph. He's just recently been promoted to AAA after an OK season at AA. But he's got to be about 12th-14th on the pecking order currently for ML help in 2026. So maybe an immediate conversion to the pen makes him a possible pen piece in 2026 at some point rather than falling behind other SP options ahead of him?

The 2026 rotation and depth is just fine if ownership doesn't just blow the whole thing up.

IF there is ANY faith on the players on hand...Lewis, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers, Wallner...and the prospects ready or nearly ready in regard to Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins, K Culpepper, GG, and maybe even Fedko and Olivar and Rosario not far behind, then the GOAL should be to adapt and use all of the talented arms you have, plus maybe a couple decent FA options to build a decent bullpen and look to the future while still having a potentially solid, competitive 2026 team that will still be building up for better things going forward. 

Remember "consistently competitive"? They CAN do that in 2026? There is a path to do so that doesn't require a HUGE increase in payroll. DOES the FO actually trust in the talent on hand, and most of their TOP PROSPECTS ready or nearly ready to create an exciting future? Or do they want to tear it all down and be the Dirty Sox, A's, and the Royals for YEARS and just try to sell hope for the future?

Personally, I can see a hopeful path that starts by keeping the rotation in tact, with just a couple adds, moving arms around, and STILL keeping the payroll low.

That's my opinion and rant.

[RaoulDuke]

If a lot breaks the right way they could field a competitive offense next year, but that is going to take a lot of luck and development from an organization that hasn't been good at that.  With a lockout presumably coming in 2027 I just don't think they are going to do much to add anything to the team.

So they can retain Ryan and Pablo and hope the young vets can finally find consistency and the prospects can come up and thrive or they can trade the vets for more prospects.  I think they will trade them but its not like anyone in the central really pushes chips in so its always possible to compete if things go right.

If they trade them then it is a free for all and they have to build a rotation and pen out of a ton of young unproven arms.  

Ober/ Matthews are locks.

Bradley gets a shot but his future may be in the pen.

SWR is there for the back end or a pen role.

Festa/ Abel are MLB ready to get extended run to cut their teeth.

Prielipp is tantalizing as a starting prospect but like Duran might just need to be put in the pen to get him up and contributing.

Raya/ Morris/ Lewis/ Culpepper/ Rojas/ ect are all varying degrees of close to ready to get a shot.

The return of trading Ryan or Pablo probably factors in heavily as well as they will target some close to/ already debuted pitching prospects.

 

 

 

[mark sills]

third will be Mathews forth will be Morris and  the fifth  will be Abel. bull pen SWR AND Festa.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

…

That's my opinion and rant.

Long opinion and rant, but I take a similar view.

I’ll even go a step further. You said they can be competitive without a huge increase, but the $90M you came up with is a pretty significant decrease from this year. Try this on for size: 

• They’ve shown a penchant for $10M free agents in Castro and then Vazquez. They seem to like having two veterans. This year’s free agent class of catchers is pretty weak, but I could see them quickly grabbing a $5M guy. 
• Similarly, they’ve signed guys like Santana, Solano and this year France to play 1B (Solano wasn’t signed primarily as a 1B, but fits the profile.). So sign a $5M guy known for his defense. 
• And then sign about four relievers totaling $10M as you work to build the rest of the bullpen from within. Guys like Coulombe..

People talk about them not having or communicating a plan, but I think it’s pretty unusual they would do that at this point. Additionally, I think the word is that the names of the additional investors will be made public after they are approved by the other owners. When that happens, I think we’ll start to hear some indicators as to whether there will be further cuts vs. some level of investment.  

[Glorybound]

The ownership mess will dictate more than the on field performance going forward. I think Lopez gets dealt fairly early in the off season. Likely the offers for Ryan will be large enough he gets moved also. For anyone who thinks Ryan will want an extension I ask if you are Joe Ryan why would you sign an extension with the Twins? He likely wants an extension just not with this team and I wouldn’t blame him a bit if he asks to be traded. The mess the Twins are in currently with ownership is worse than the contraction threat years and players like Joe Ryan want no part of it.

 

[JBK]

10 hours ago, Dawgzilla said:

No one cares really, that is how bad team is, their projections and affection for ownership!  Twins can't even run bases right...Martin and Wallner both thrown out, Martin in a stupid non tag...or make sure ball hits ground first, not his only recent base running adventure.  Is this Knothole...and do they actually need to learn to bunt, steal, tag, throw to the cut off man, etc ., lat alone not grove pitches to hitters.

 

Good Lord!  No one will get the ESPN+ streaming option next year to watch this dog and pony show!  

Lastly, Mickey Mouse, aka, Mickey Gasper should even warm the bench; he can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

Is this Knothole...and do they actually need to learn to bunt, steal, tag, throw to the cut off man, etc ., lat alone not grove pitches to hitters.

This is Rocco's fault.  All of a sudden they are trying to bunt and steal bases?  Never did it in six years.  Rocco has to go

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

The return of trading Ryan or Pablo probably factors in heavily as well as they will target some close to/ already debuted pitching prospects.

If they trade either one of those pitchers, so you really think they will want more pitchers or some MLB-ready batters? Seems like we need better fielders AND better hitters more than pitchers at this point. 

[Doctor Wu]

2 hours ago, Glorybound said:

The ownership mess will dictate more than the on field performance going forward.

Sadly, I think that may be the bottom line. Profit over performance. 

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

That's my opinion and rant.

I agree with a lot of what you said and disagree with a lot (like extending Ryan)

You could all most cut and paste this and replace certain player and prospect names and have wrote this the last  how many years. 

The Twins have always some studs and prospects ready to save the day. I kind of feel like the Twins are in the same position as when this FO arrived. The Twins had Santana (Lopez), Gibson (Ober), Berrios (Ryan), Hughes (SWR) with guys like May, Meyer, Gonzo, Romero, Jay, Mejia, Stewart,Jorge, THorpe Gordon, AK, Javier, Wade, Baddo, Arraez, Garver and Blankenhorn's coming up. Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, Escobar already mostly established. (Now I will say I believe the current minor league players likely have a better future but as of now the core is worse)

I will add if this FO thinks there is a legit shutdown coming in 27, they should absoletly be looking to trade Lopez and Ryan unless of course they think that somehow they won't become free agents when/if they come back in 28. (Imagine losing both those pitchers for nothing but picks, that would be unacceptable.)

 

 

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

Is this Knothole...and do they actually need to learn to bunt, steal, tag, throw to the cut off man, etc ., lat alone not grove pitches to hitters.

This is Rocco's fault.  All of a sudden they are trying to bunt and steal bases?  Never did it in six years.  Rocco has to go

I think this response should be in the article about Baldelli opening up the baserunning.  This article is about pitching.

[Otaknam]

The team really needs Abel or Bradley to establish themselves as solid starters  to salvage something from the carpet bombing of the roster. Abel especially because of what they gave up to get him. Tait is too far from the ML to factor into a discussion of next year, though he could be an excellent player if he sustains his success. 

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Long opinion and rant, but I take a similar view.

I’ll even go a step further. You said they can be competitive without a huge increase, but the $90M you came up with is a pretty significant decrease from this year. Try this on for size: 

• They’ve shown a penchant for $10M free agents in Castro and then Vazquez. They seem to like having two veterans. This year’s free agent class of catchers is pretty weak, but I could see them quickly grabbing a $5M guy. 
• Similarly, they’ve signed guys like Santana, Solano and this year France to play 1B (Solano wasn’t signed primarily as a 1B, but fits the profile.). So sign a $5M guy known for his defense. 
• And then sign about four relievers totaling $10M as you work to build the rest of the bullpen from within. Guys like Coulombe..

People talk about them not having or communicating a plan, but I think it’s pretty unusual they would do that at this point. Additionally, I think the word is that the names of the additional investors will be made public after they are approved by the other owners. When that happens, I think we’ll start to hear some indicators as to whether there will be further cuts vs. some level of investment.  

Just to be clear, the $90M is a starting point before adding anyone via FA.

[IndianaTwin]

39 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Just to be clear, the $90M is a starting point before adding anyone via FA.

After I typed my (shorter 😀) rant, I realized that may have been using the $90M figure that way. In which case, we're likely even closer in agreement.  

[Jeff K]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The biggest question is do the POWERS THAT BE want to tear the whole damn thing down? (Which also doesn't always work). Or do they want to field a solid, possibly competitive team in 2026?

While the pitching hasn't wholly stepped up the this season, or late in 2024, it's been the offense that has been the biggest issue. But Wallner and Lewis aren't throw away players. Buxton is great. Jeffers is on of the best offensive backstops in the game. Keaschall has arrived. Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper are so very close. And there are a handful of other position players that are really close to providing help as well. 

IF the Twins want to field a competent team for 2026, they will STOP the teardown and keep Lopez and Ryan. And I'll repeat yet again, if Larnach is moved, the payroll sits around $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan and arbitration numbers accounted for.

I just don't buy in to moving Lopez and Ryan because it's silly to have front line, playoff caliber starters for a team not expected to compete for anything. We'll, yeah, if you trade away your best 2 SP, OF COURSE you won't compete for anything. Both are still controlled through 2027. And YES, the pen needs to be re-built. But you've accumulated so many good young arms, you don't think you can use them? With a payroll of $90M you couldn't add even a couple relievers to help with that re-build? And are you telling me that you DON'T believe in Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper???

IMO, Ryan should be an extension candidate rather than a trade option. Or, again, do you not believe in all of your pitching depth and the position players you have on hand, and prospects you have developed that are appearing or about to do so???

Sorry, but that was a reality check to the FO and ownership who are a complete mixed up mystery at this point. Might have just as well spit in the wind, but needed to state what I think is obvious. 

Ober is susceptible to injuries here and there because of being 6' 9". It's what slowed him somewhat in his early days, but the Twins corrected his mechanics and he became the very good SP that we know. He's looked better after his rest. And he stated all along his mechanics got messed up at some point. Might have lead to his hip issue. Could just be wear and tear that happens once in a while. But Lopez, Ryan, and Ober is a hell of a good 1-3 for 2026.

After them, IMO comes Mathews as a virtual lock. The pure stuff and control is just too good to ignore. Other than game experience, what he needs is better "command" of his pitches. That means sneaking out of the zone more for whiffs, and to set up batters. The 5th spot is up for grabs between SWR, Abel, and Bradley. That's 7 deep. But let's not forget about Morris as the probable 8th arm. I think Rojas is only ready mid 2026. The recently promoted to AAA Klein shouldn't be ignored even though he's been largely left out of conversation. But he's also probably a mid season option. And what is the future of Raya? The kid gloves have come off the past couple of months and he's been throwing more pitches/innings and while as consistent as we'd like to see, he's thrown some of the best games of his career the past month or so. And what about Prielipp? Is he the biggest dark horse for the Twins rotation in 2026? Honestly, he's still "learning how to pitch" considering his lack of experience. I'd bet the Twins are going to tweak his repertoire with a 4th pitch soon, though I'm not sure what. Ready July 1st as a SP option next season? I believe ALL of these guys are 25yo or younger at this point. 

Notice I haven't included Festa, or Lewis, or CJ Culpepper? Nor have I mentioned LH Christian MacLeod.

I WANT Festa to be a ML SP because it's a great story and I just love seeing "Thin Reaper" put away guys! But there's always been concerns about durability. He's been REALLY GOOD though an order the 1st time. Not uncommon for a young pitcher. The 2 seamer he's been working on is for RH batters as that's maybe been his biggest issue so far. MAYBE he continues to work on that, or maybe the Twins help him with a sweeper, cutter, splitter instead and convert him to the pen for 2026. The shoulder issues he's dealt with tells me he should pitch 1 inning 3 times a week instead of being a starter. His max velocity should jump to 98-99 ish with a good slider and change. 

Lewis was the Twins MILB pitcher of the year in 2023, IIRC. In 2024 he had an injury setback and it took some time to get his velocity back. He's had a tough 1st full year at AAA as they've also adjusted his mix, and tried to put his crazy good knuckleball more to the forefront. But maybe they need to put him in the pen for max velocity...probably mid 90's...maybe add a pitch...I'm spitballing a bit here as I can't recall his current repertoire...and use that crazy mid 80's knuckleball on 0-2, 1-2, even 2-2 counts and suddenly be an effective weapon out of the pen in the middle innings.

Like Lewis, CJ Culpepper has shown great potential that has been interrupted by mild injury. He has a funky, short arm delivery. He has, I believe, 6 pitches he throws. Control isn't much of an issue. But from what I understand, all of his pitches are solid, but none or great. And his velocity tends to dip after a few innings. Again, what I've heard and read. None of that doesn't preclude him from being a potential ML SP at some point. But maybe he's Jax-like that he can crank up his velocity and throw a grouping of solid secondary offerings to befuddle hitters. 

MacLeod has slowly moved up the system as a LHSP who needed surgery after the Twins selected him #5 in the 2021 draft. Other than 1.2 IP in 2021, he didnt throw again until 2023. His MILB K numbers sit around 10 per. His WHIP is around 1.4, not bad. I've heard reports his FB sits around 94mph. He's just recently been promoted to AAA after an OK season at AA. But he's got to be about 12th-14th on the pecking order currently for ML help in 2026. So maybe an immediate conversion to the pen makes him a possible pen piece in 2026 at some point rather than falling behind other SP options ahead of him?

The 2026 rotation and depth is just fine if ownership doesn't just blow the whole thing up.

IF there is ANY faith on the players on hand...Lewis, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers, Wallner...and the prospects ready or nearly ready in regard to Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins, K Culpepper, GG, and maybe even Fedko and Olivar and Rosario not far behind, then the GOAL should be to adapt and use all of the talented arms you have, plus maybe a couple decent FA options to build a decent bullpen and look to the future while still having a potentially solid, competitive 2026 team that will still be building up for better things going forward. 

Remember "consistently competitive"? They CAN do that in 2026? There is a path to do so that doesn't require a HUGE increase in payroll. DOES the FO actually trust in the talent on hand, and most of their TOP PROSPECTS ready or nearly ready to create an exciting future? Or do they want to tear it all down and be the Dirty Sox, A's, and the Royals for YEARS and just try to sell hope for the future?

Personally, I can see a hopeful path that starts by keeping the rotation in tact, with just a couple adds, moving arms around, and STILL keeping the payroll low.

That's my opinion and rant.

I agree with just about everything you stated.  This is, of course, the optimistic perspective.  It's easy to not be hopeful at all given the poor leadership from Pohlad to Falvey and Rocco.  I certainly don't care for the ownership or Rocco.  If I'm honest, Falvey has some excuses, namely the Pohlads.  That said, his corporate speak and BS comments continue to be enfuriating.  If the Twins keep the rotation intact for next season, then your optimistic comments could come to fruition.  Here's hoping!

[DJL44]

I am assuming one of Ryan, Lopez and Ober gets traded. I am guessing it will be Ryan because he will return the most in trade. They probably want to keep Ober and see if he has more value at the 2026 trade deadline. Lopez will stay because they don't need to dump any more salary and they do need a veteran in the rotation.

As usual, when figuring out the rotation, start with options. Simeon Woods Richardson is out of options next season, so he is a lock for the rotation. Festa, Abel and Matthews will each have 2 options and Bradley will have one. That gives Bradley the next spot. They need 8 starters, so I don't see Festa, Abel or Matthews moved to the bullpen. I think they will fill the bullpen with minor league free agents like Blewett.

Morris, Raya, Rojas, Prielipp and CJ Culpepper will all start the season optioned to the minors.

[hitterscount]

The offense and defense is such a mess,  that area really needs to be the focus this off-season. Unfortunately Falvey, who hasn't  shown he has the ability to field a MLB lineup, will be responsible for a major retooling.  Ideally they keep Lopez and Ryan and if the team perforns at 2025 levels; , poor plate approaches, below average defense and zero clue on the base paths, they could be moved at the 2026 trading deadline. If Falvey goes this route you have Lopez, Ryan, Matthews, Abel and either Bradley or Ober. Ober currently isn't giving the team a chance to win. If he cannot get his velocity up to where it was when he was effective he could be dealt this winter.

 

Knowing how the owners and FO operates I am guessing we will see a rotation of: Ober, Matthews, Abel, Festa and either a type of signing in the Rich Hill, Shoemaker category or Bradley getting the 5th spot. Looking at a 65 win season if this turns out to be the case.

[old nurse]

Able, Festa, and Mathews really have nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. As starting pitchers in the majors they have proved nothing.   Festa’s numbers on first time through the order are buoyed by his ability to get the bottom of the order out. 

SWR after 47 games is what he is. 4-5 innings, generally keeps you in the game 

Bradley is an expensive lottery ticket. 5 pitchers, 2 spots. 4 or 6 more starts to prove themselves  Spring training has arrived early. No matter the outcome, they will get their 80-90 pitches  in. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

The offense and defense is such a mess,  that area really needs to be the focus this off-season. Unfortunately Falvey, who hasn't  shown he has the ability to field a MLB lineup, will be responsible for a major retooling.  Ideally they keep Lopez and Ryan and if the team perforns at 2025 levels; , poor plate approaches, below average defense and zero clue on the base paths, they could be moved at the 2026 trading deadline. If Falvey goes this route you have Lopez, Ryan, Matthews, Abel and either Bradley or Ober. Ober currently isn't giving the team a chance to win. If he cannot get his velocity up to where it was when he was effective he could be dealt this winter.

 

Knowing how the owners and FO operates I am guessing we will see a rotation of: Ober, Matthews, Abel, Festa and either a type of signing in the Rich Hill, Shoemaker category or Bradley getting the 5th spot. Looking at a 65 win season if this turns out to be the case.

I'm sorry, this is the story, sad but true. With the lockout coming in '27, they'll trade Ryan (who'd probably want to be traded) & hold onto Lopez as a veteran presence & trade at the deadline. So all the presumed SPs hopefully stick in MLB. Those who don't start should be long relief/ spot start. I see Preilipp as the closer & Raya maybe set up. As always will be busy on the waiver wire.

[gman]

I think they float Ryan, Lopez, and Ober. They may not get offered enough to make it worthwhile to trade Ober, but I can see them checking his value. Ryan is probably pushing for a trade and maybe the most valuable. I expect they may want to keep Lopez but will get an outstanding offer for him and trade him also. Doesn't leave much in the way of experienced starters for them.

Starting Corp

Ober(?), SWR, Bradley, Abel, Mathews, Festa, Morris

[Doctor Wu]

On 8/27/2025 at 9:07 PM, Otaknam said:

Tait is too far from the ML to factor into a discussion of next year, though he could be an excellent player if he sustains his success. 

The consensus seems to be that because Tait is only in single A that he is still several years away from being on the team. But just from reading about him and seeing recent clips, he seems like he could be a fast riser and end up at Target Field sooner than some might think. I don't see that happening next season, but I think he could be end by 2027.  At least I HOPE that's the case. He seems like the real deal. 

[bunsen82]

Ryan will be traded if they get a significant offer.  

SP - next year will be Lopez, Ober, Matthews, Bradley and Abel

SWR and Festa are your AAA depth pieces.  You keep Lopez as the experienced starter to help show Matthews, Bradley and Abel what it takes to succeed at the MLB level.  This gives you youth and experience.   

Ryan is tricky - my opinion is he will not do as well in a transition year,  is worth more on the trade market.  

Ryan now has a trade surplus value 52.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think Ryan is a near lock to be traded....because he's worth a lot, and he likely wants out. Hope to be wrong.

I am unsure on Lopez. I think they deal him, but I think they might keep him. 

I keep SWR in the rotation, and let him go 5. League average starts are just barely higher than that anyway. 

Abel and Bradley are wild cards to me. If they deal both Pedro and Joe, they are locks. Neither has anything to learn or show in AAA......but they also have Zebby and Ober......

I really don't KNOW what this ownership group wants at this point, but if you made me guess, it would be a LOW payroll for a year.....