BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[KirbyDome89]

5 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Because we will not be good for two years, so he provides no value, and Duran will get expensive.  Have you ever negotiated anything?  Demanding a ridiculous return isn't how it goes. 

What do you think he's actually going to make next season? Honestly....

[RaoulDuke]

I don't hate it but I am underwhelmed.  

I wanted an arm to be the main piece coming back, chasing young catching prospects seems like the about the riskiest return you can go for.

If the were really pushing for Painter I am shocked that this got done so early, why not let the teams continue to bid against each other.  They must have really wanted to get this one done so they can focus on a bunch of other trades in the remaining hours?

With an incredibly quick look Abel seems like he compares to Festa, mlb stuff that they can't really command well.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, cjm0926 said:

Not sure how to feel about the trade right now. It sucks to lose a guy like Duran, but it will be years down the road until we can really evaluate the trade. Trade aside, the Twins have a lot of pitching in the upper minors to test out in the coming years, or trade from depending on the scenario.

MLB - Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR, Festa/Matthews

Minors - Abel, Morris, Adams, Ohl, Lewis, Raya, MacLeod, Non-Roster veterans, Prielipp, Culpepper, Klein, Hidalgo, Bowen

Pretty fair assumption most of those guys won't pan out and stick around, but should be interesting to see. Tait isn't a bad get at all, just risky considering he is multiple years away from the big leagues if everything goes right. The Twins don't really have a sure-thing future catcher in their system right now, but Olivar, Diaw and now Tait are the closest thing they may have. They've also got a few guys who could MAYBE turn out to be decent backup catchers such as Cardenas, Winkel, Baez or Cossetti.

Should be interesting to follow because who knows what the big league team will look like after tomorrow and the '26 offseason.

None of those guys will be legit starters in Minnesota for at least three years ... So they still don't have any catchers, three years after overpaying for Vazquez, and won't for at least two or three more ...

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What do you think he's actually going to make next season? Honestly....

Around 8 million a year. 

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Btw, someone said the Mets paid more in their deal? Strong disagree. 

The trade calculator actually is higher, but they are only giving Abel a value around 5-6.  Abel has the stuff to be a #1 or #2. His raw stuff is much better than Ryan. I can only imagine what the trade calculator valued that deal at. Ultimately the value comes down to the players, and we got 2 good prospects in this deal.

i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

Of course he does. The only sports fans in America that are more delusional than the fans in Philadelphia are the fans in Chicago. The Philly fans still think that "the process" for the 76ers is going to lead to a championship. I got to admit though, the Eagles are damn good and it looks like they're going to be damn good again this year.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, bunsen82 said:

The trade calculator actually is higher, but they are only giving Abel a value around 5-6.  Abel has the stuff to be a #1 or #2. His raw stuff is much better than Ryan. I can only imagine what the trade calculator valued that deal at. Ultimately the value comes down to the players, and we got 2 good prospects in this deal.

i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive. 

He's 19. 

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

I have a friend from Philly and he is concerned about Durans 3mph velocity loss

103 MPH down to 100 MPH. Devastating. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

 

i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive. 

It'd be even more impressive if he actually was 17.

[NotAboutWinning]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What do you think he's actually going to make next season? Honestly....

4 million this year. 8-10 million is projected. 

[Nshore]

Next up - Correa to Houston for a flying squirrel and some baseline chalk.

[PseudoSABR]

[KirbyDome89]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Around 8 million a year. 

Bingo, I would've guessed 9ish off the top of my head. 

This team is paying Vazquez $10M to be one of the worst players in baseball but suddenly an elite arm for $8-9M is "too expensive." Hilarious. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, NotAboutWinning said:

4 million this year. 8-10 million is projected. 

How does that make him a rental, or too expensive? 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You're right about that. The Twins got much more for Duran than the Giants did for Tyler Rogers.  

I'd take the AAA CF with the .350 OBP the Giants got over the lotto ticket A ball catcher the Twins got. Sure, looking them over I'd take Abel over Tidwell, but that's much closer to a wash than the offensive end of the deal. Both pitchers have a history of command that looks like they're ending up in the bullpen.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, PseudoSABR said:

Tait is the risk here. 

[glunn]

CBS is giving the Phillies an "A" and the Twins a "B".  https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/jhoan-duran-trade-grades-phillies-get-a-in-deal-for-flame-throwing-closer-twins-betting-on-young-catcher/

[NotAboutWinning]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

How does that make him a rental, or too expensive? 

Have the Twins ever paid that for a reliever? Even a closer?

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It'd be even more impressive if he actually was 17.

Yes a mistype on an iPad. 19 is still impressive. 

[DarkoMills4]

Remember why Joe Mauer got Target Field made? Gosh those days were great.

[LA Vikes Fan]

FWIW, the writers at the Athletic give both the Twins and the Phillies a B+ to an A depending on which of the three you like. The consensus is that it's a good deal for both sides and that the Phillies basically paid sticker price for Duran.  

The depressing part of this is not the trade or the return, it's how far this team has fallen from possible contender basically engaging in a rebuild. This trade makes a lot of sense if you don't have the horses to contend for a year or two. I was kind of hoping that we did

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

This tool is bad for many reasons. Would you trade Duran for 30 guys with a value of one? You also have to assume the tool is right about value. Also, Tait has zero value for three years, unless traded. Does it take into account present value? 

Value, as we see from contracts, is not linear. 

[Danchat]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The trade calculator actually is higher, but they are only giving Abel a value around 5-6.  Abel has the stuff to be a #1 or #2. His raw stuff is much better than Ryan. I can only imagine what the trade calculator valued that deal at. Ultimately the value comes down to the players, and we got 2 good prospects in this deal.

i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive. 

If Abel had the stuff to be a #1/#2 the Phillies would be holding onto him and he'd be a top 20 prospect in the league. Given the reports stating his stuff has a hard time hitting the upper 90s I don't buy it.

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Have the Twins ever paid that for a reliever? Even a closer?

Why would that matter? 

[chpettit19]

Surprised this deal got done. This is what relievers go for so, in that sense, it's a fair deal. But I thought the Twins would actually stick to the "2 top 100 prospects" thing as they've actually been quite good at that. They set a price and don't really move off it. It's why Kepler was never traded. But these aren't 2 top 100 prospects anymore. I think Fangraphs took them both off. Assuming MLB adds at least 8 draft picks to their list, Abel is coming off theirs. 

As others have pointed out, Duran didn't need to be traded. I was all for trading him if they could actually get what would have been an overpay in getting 2 clear top 100 prospects and hopefully more. I do think the deadline is actually the better time to trade relievers, but this is a disappointing return. Abel is going the wrong direction in rankings and even if Tait is still in a bunch, he's (nearly) 19 and a billion miles from the bigs. Some fella named Diego Cartaya was crushing homers in the low minors as a teenager with a rocket arm a few years back, too. 

While I think it's fair value, and thus we'll see a bunch of B or B+ type grades on it from the different sites that grade such things, I'm not a huge fan. Part of it also has to do with holding out hope that there's new blood from the owner's suite on down by the time this trade had to be made and thinking Duran has essentially the same value a year from now. And I don't think this signals any massive fire sale (doesn't mean there won't be one, but 1 non-expiring trade isn't a fire sale). If you can't replace 1 reliever, even one as good as Duran, and still compete you probably should have a fire sale, though.

[bunsen82]

Just now, Danchat said:

If Abel had the stuff to be a #1/#2 the Phillies would be holding onto him and he'd be a top 20 prospect in the league. Given the reports stating his stuff has a hard time hitting the upper 90s I don't buy it.

We turned Ryan into #1 pitcher.

[Wedman13]

14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If the roles were reversed, we would be jumping for joy acquiring one of the best RP in baseball for 2.5 years for our org’s 4th and 6th ranked prospects. Especially when one of them is light years away from making MLB 

Much like Jorge Lopez and Matt Capps?  (Ramos was a Stud)  

Relievers can be tricky.  On the flip side, Ryan Pressley trade didn't work out well.

[NYCTK]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Btw, someone said the Mets paid more in their deal? Strong disagree. 

It is arguable. Comparing their Fangraphs prospect reports. And then a really solid middle reliever under control that can pitch a lot of innings (but sadly out of options). 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Surprised this deal got done. This is what relievers go for so, in that sense, it's a fair deal. But I thought the Twins would actually stick to the "2 top 100 prospects" thing as they've actually been quite good at that. They set a price and don't really move off it. It's why Kepler was never traded. But these aren't 2 top 100 prospects anymore. I think Fangraphs took them both off. Assuming MLB adds at least 8 draft picks to their list, Abel is coming off theirs. 

As others have pointed out, Duran didn't need to be traded. I was all for trading him if they could actually get what would have been an overpay in getting 2 clear top 100 prospects and hopefully more. I do think the deadline is actually the better time to trade relievers, but this is a disappointing return. Abel is going the wrong direction in rankings and even if Tait is still in a bunch, he's (nearly) 19 and a billion miles from the bigs. Some fella named Diego Cartaya was crushing homers in the low minors as a teenager with a rocket arm a few years back, too. 

While I think it's fair value, and thus we'll see a bunch of B or B+ type grades on it from the different sites that grade such things, I'm not a huge fan. Part of it also has to do with holding out hope that there's new blood from the owner's suite on down by the time this trade had to be made and thinking Duran has essentially the same value a year from now. And I don't think this signals any massive fire sale (doesn't mean there won't be one, but 1 non-expiring trade isn't a fire sale). If you can't replace 1 reliever, even one as good as Duran, and still compete you probably should have a fire sale, though.

It may or may not be fair .... But it bodes very poorly for the Ryan and Lopez window unless they fix Abel. And even then, they didn't fix the actual problem of zero offense. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This tool is bad for many reasons. Would you trade Duran for 30 guys with a value of one? You also have to assume the tool is right about value. Also, Tait has zero value for three years, unless traded. Does it take into account present value? 

Value, as we see from contracts, is not linear. 

OMG thank you. 

Throwing together parts ≠ an impact arm. It's akin to blindly using total WAR to justify swaps. 

Tait's assigned value, even if we assume it's correct, is still incredibly volatile.