Brewers 9, Twins 8: Rally Falls Short, Brewers Sweep Series

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel- Imagn Images

Box Score:
Bulk Pitcher: David Festa: 4 2/3, 12 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (96 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 67.7%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (17), Ryan Jeffers (6), Ty France (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Festa (-.498), Matt Wallner (-.204), Trevor Larnach (-.180)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Another day, a new rock bottom for the Minnesota Twins. With their pitching in a slump, and their lineup cooling off after a decent start to June, it was the defense's turn to revert to early-April levels of performance ,as the Twins lost the first two games of the series against Milwaukee 26-6. It marks the longest stretch of losing baseball with Byron Buxton available and hitting well that I can remember.

The day began with Danny Coulombe acting as an opener for David Festa. After two quick outs to begin the day, the red-hot Christian Yelich got on top of a hanging cutter from the lefty and laced it into the right field corner. He would score on a bloop single from William Contreras.

The Twins would answer this time! First, Buxton rammed a sinker 411 feet into the bleachers in left-center to get the offense going. And it did, with four consecutive singles off of fungible Milwaukee starter Quinn Priester. That left the bases loaded with one out and two runs in, but Kody Clemens lined out hard to second baseman Brice Turang, and Ryan Jeffers tapped out, limiting the damage.

With Festa starting his day, he was greeted by a home run from Rhys Hoskins, tying the game and flipping the momentum of the ballgame. Festa would stop the bleeding there, but would not be so fortunate in the third inning.

Sal Frelick began the inning with a dribbler that Brooks Lee bobbled, and was scored an error (but later reconsidered and called a dubious infield single). Jackson Chourio, fully capable of crushing 450-foot home runs, bunted right to Lee, who missed the barehand play, putting a second runner on base. Yelich then hit a chopper that bounced over Lee's outstretched glove to score Frelick and regain the lead. Chourio also took the extra base on said single, which would prove crucial as he scored on Hoskins' sacrifice fly. So two ground balls, a bunt and a fly ball led to two runs for the Brewers.

Were it the Twins, that sequence would lead to zero runs and a 6-8 week injury.

The Brewers weren't done with Festa. Caleb Durbin legged out an infield single, and Joey Ortiz poked a single through the right side, with Durbin taking third on the play. Once again, Festa made his pitches, but the Brewers had a game plan and they executed it. Festa even managed to strike out both Chourio (great slider) and Yelich (excellent changeup) to end the inning, but a wild pitch during the Yelich at-bat scored Durbin, and the Brewers were suddenly up three.

Jeffers did manage a long home run off a fat cutter from Priester, who was not impressive and ended up going 3 1/3 innings with three runs allowed, two home runs and four strikeouts.

Festa finally caved in the fifth. He walked Contreras on four pitches, but then induced a ground ball from Isaac Collins to Carlos Correa, who nimbly tagged second for a forceout. Festa got another grounder, although a hard-hit one-hopped, from Hoskins, right to Lee. However Lee, perhaps ruminating over the numerous close calls and misplays he had already made, didn't get his glove down and the ball deflected off his body and under the tarp, allowing Hoskins what was technically a double. Festa then grooved a changeup to the nitro zone (down and in) of Turang, who smacked it 412 feet for a three-run home run that effectively ended the series. Three more singles would follow, and before you could blink the score was 9-3 and Jonah Bride was probably starting to get his arm loose again.

Buxton would deliver another home run as part of a 3-5 day with a steal that raised his OPS above .900 (.928 to be exact).

That made the score 9-4, and the Twins would threaten again in the seventh.

Facing lefty D.L. Hall, Ty France drew a walk in front of Lee's third single of the game. Correa singled, and Bride came in to draw a gutty walk. All of a sudden, the tying run was at the plate in Jeffers. Nick Mears was brought in to face the Twins' catcher, and fell behind 3-1. He did induce a run scoring dribbler that made the score 9-6. Harrison Bader was then brought in to pinch hit for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and flied out to right field.

The Twins would add in the eighth, facing lefty Jared Koenig. After Buxton struck out, Wallner beat out an infield hit. Larnach popped out, and Ty France fell behind in the count before leaning out and flicking a curveball inside the left field foul pole for a home run to make the score 9-8. Lee and Correa each delivered their fourth singles of the game, bringing up Bride with the tying run 90 feet away.

That prompted the Brewers to insert their closer, our old dopey friend Trevor Megill, who has flourished in Milwaukee. He made mincemeat out of Bride, dotting a 98 MPH fastball on the outside corner for a called strikeout to end the frame. 

Megill was brought out for the ninth, an unfamiliar position for him, and gave up a screaming double to Bader with one out. Buxton was intentionally walked, and Wallner came to the plate with the winning run on first base. He would pop out, leaving the game for Larnach, who was caught looking after grimacing on some swings early in the at-bat, his hand appearing to still affect him after sitting the past few games.

Stray Observations:

-Maybe the Brewers, Rays and Guardians are onto something with the way they approach hitting. The way I view it is that those teams will do anything possible to score one run, even if that means sacrificing individual at-bats. Once they have put pressure on the pitcher, that is when they start waiting for mistakes. Those teams are the most analytically-driven in the game, and maybe its time to throw away the dinosaur stats of mid-2010's sabermetrics and approach the game more in the moment, rather than big-picture. At least some of the time.

It's similar to how the most efficient way to score in basketball is to shoot three pointers. But if the other team completely sells out to stop you from taking them, you have to make an adjustment. I just don't understand why that is so easy to understand in the NBA while being mocked mercilessly in MLB as backward and anti-intellectual. I would say the strict adherence to stuff we figured out in 2005 is far more anti-intellectual.

-Buxton is about to have the most trade value he has had since he was the number one prospect in baseball. Despite certain fan ignorance surrounding his contract, he is on an extremely (and I can't stress this enough) cheap deal while performing as the best center fielder in baseball. Seriously he makes the 106th most money per year, right in front of Alex Cobb. Buxton wants to be here, and surely the front office wants him here, but if they are approached with a trade proposal of multiple top-50 prospects and some major league ready talent, they would have to at least entertain it.

-Lee had four or five plays that he didn't make. Most were difficult, but with each successive play not made, it looked like Lee was affected mentally. He did have four hits, though.

What’s Next: Bailey Ober (4-4, 4.54 ERA) faces Brian Woo (6-4, 3.12 ERA) as the Twins continue their homestand against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have been struggling, though not to the level of the Twins, with their offense crashing back to Earth after a strong start. Ober has been piecing it together, but is clearly not 100% physically and will need to out-smart the Mariners (not that difficult) if he wants to pitch deep into the game.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Sands	0	13	0	31	0	44
Topa	0	17	22	0	5	44
Wentz	0	0	43	0	0	43
Coulombe	0	15	3	0	21	39
Stewart	0	0	0	11	18	29
Durán	0	0	3	0	18	21
Varland	0	13	0	4	0	17
Jax	0	15	0	0	1	16

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[jkcarew]

Aside from the home runs, the Twins scored 3 runs on 13 hits and 3 walks. Yep. 3 runs from 16 base runners…and even including a Buxton stolen base. So even in a game where the bats completely break out, you still see how awful this team is at moving runners and baserunning. And then, there’s the pitching.

[D.C Twins]

We sure tricked them with that opener strategy!

[Bracky]

Your first stray thought in the article is spot on. Definitely feel watching some other teams they do just this, all the focus to move runners and get that run in. For whatever reason it just never feels like the Twins share that goal and are sticking to some outside “strategy” for hitting.

[D.C Twins]

I'm a huge Buck fan.

But honestly, if the Twins receive a good deal, they should trade high.

Age-wise he will not be part of the next core that will hopefully deliver.

I would be open to trading for anyone over 26 except Ober, Ryan, and Wallner 

[Markdumont25]

It's simultaneously heartwarming and very sad to see Buxton finally healthy and thriving after all these years but having it squandered on what is increasingly looking like another disappointment of a season

[Aggies7]

When is this organization going to develop actual starting pitching? Two guys were developed in the last 15 years that ended up being competent starters. Berrios and Ober. Ryan pitched two games in the twins system before being called up. Why are other teams seemingly able to develop starters and the twins aren’t? Today, we chose to use an opener because we don’t trust one of the “pipeline” guys we’ve allegedly developed to see the top of the order more than twice. Scouting and development seems to leave a lot to be desired.

[jkcarew]

I agree with the contemplation of a Buxton deadline trade THEORETICALLY.

But do you trust a lame-duck admin to make the right deal for the franchise’s future? Or are they not really lame-duck?

What a mess.

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I'm a huge Buck fan.

But honestly, if the Twins receive a good deal, they should trade high.

Age-wise he will not be part of the next core that will hopefully deliver.

I would be open to trading for anyone over 26 except Ober, Ryan, and Wallner 

Need clarification here. You are ok with trading Buxton but not open to trading Ober, Ryan, or Wallner? If this is your take .... why? I might understand the reticence to trade any pitching, especially good ones like Ober or Ryan. But Wallner?

[D.C Twins]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Need clarification here. You are ok with trading Buxton but not open to trading Ober, Ryan, or Wallner? If this is your take .... why? I might understand the reticence to trade any pitching, especially good ones like Ober or Ryan. But Wallner?

I think Wallner still has room to further improve and potentially be a star. I like that he is hometown and we need a few 'veterans' to guide the next core.  I guess you would count Correa in the potential small 'veterans' group because nobody is going to touch that contract with a 10 foot pole unless the Dodgers or Yankees have some injuries that make them desperate. 

I like to keep good controllable pitching... even in a rebuild

[DocBauer]

(Sigh)

Glad I didn't watch this one, or any of this series. (Working, still a fan)! Do we give any credit to the team fighting until the end and not giving up? Or do we lament missed opportunities?

Lee is WAY better than that! Festa is WAY better than that! Sim actually tosses a solid game but is let down by both his defense and his offense. 

I think the hope is get to the break at .500. We get some guys back in July, SOMEONE or multiple SOMEONES wake up and we have a solid 2nd half. We still have an entire half season to play, so I'm not giving up at this point, despite mounting frustration. 

Absolutely NO to any thought of trading Buxton!

[thelanges5]

6-14 in June - 78 win pace 

85 games to go but it feels too much like the end of 2024

Hard to watch this club and see a way out of this. 

I guess the only positive today is that they showed some fight at the end. 

[LastOnePicked]

Trade who you can. Fire Rocco. Send the signal that a full cleaning of the slate is underway. This isn't major league quality baseball at this point.

[mikelink45]

I am beginning to think that TD writers have be challenged to report on this club, speculate about All Star votes, write up injured players returning, posting Baldelli's what am I going to say now interviews, listing prospects that we hope replace the prospects we have already put in the lineup and roster.  

In this month we have failed at starting pitching, opening, relief pitching, closing, pinch hitting, lineup construction, scoring runs, not scoring runs, hitting home runs, standing still on the bases, defensive rankings and defensive short comes.  What is left?  We might not believe in prospects anymore, but at least there are interesting games for the minor league reports. 

[Linus]

Hans - Are you aware that Buck has a full no trade clause?  He’s not going anywhere. 

[RpR]

[Vanimal46]

53 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

6-14 in June - 78 win pace 

85 games to go but it feels too much like the end of 2024

Hard to watch this club and see a way out of this. 

I guess the only positive today is that they showed some fight at the end. 

11-22 since the 13 win steak concluded. 7-15 before the win streak. 100+ loss pace for most of the season 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

I'm a huge Buck fan.

But honestly, if the Twins receive a good deal, they should trade high.

Age-wise he will not be part of the next core that will hopefully deliver.

I would be open to trading for anyone over 26 except Ober, Ryan, and Wallner 

Which would mean the Twin might become a post season team regularly how?

Is there some magic crystal ball that the Twin would magically become better and not another team with mediocre to just plain not good rookies.

Trading for the sake of trading is a fools folly.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Hans - Are you aware that Buck has a full no trade clause?  He’s not going anywhere. 

Guys get traded with no trade clauses all the time. 

I'm getting repetitive here, but this team is toast and should be turned over to the youth to learn, or learn they can't be counted on. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins did a great job trying to climb out a very deep hole. Our pitching is going down the crapper since Lopez got hurt almost 3 weeks ago & the Twins haven't done anything to get us out of it. I don't like the talk of trading the core, of blaming them for management mistakes.

Management likes to blame, the health trainers, hitting coaches & now the core. Yeah, it's not management's fault so get rid of all the core, trade them away for nothing & start all over again & make all the same mistakes all over again & sign management to extensions again.  & lose a lot of fans while you're at it.

IMO, for Twins to win, they need a new identity. That means that we need to ditch the old big bat, poor defense, poor fundamentals, poor baserunning, poor clutch hitting, Ks, ignoring intangibles, etc., philosophy. "You can't put new wine into old wine skins". If you want better defense, fundamentals, baserunning, clutch-hitting, etc., we may need different personnel.

[Old Crow]

On the plus side It was interesting to watch a team play the game the way it was intended.  Sadly I'm afraid the lesson went over management's head.

[thelanges5]

4-13 since Pablo went down, allowing 128 runs in those 17 games

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

I think Wallner still has room to further improve and potentially be a star. I like that he is hometown and we need a few 'veterans' to guide the next core.  I guess you would count Correa in the potential small 'veterans' group because nobody is going to touch that contract with a 10 foot pole unless the Dodgers or Yankees have some injuries that make them desperate. 

I like to keep good controllable pitching... even in a rebuild

Thank you for the answer. I guess a number of people see Wallner as a viable position player.

I'm not convinced right now. My view of him is a little bit dispassionate and cold. He is totally different but shares fan appreciation love similar to Royce Lewis; guys who have produced very sporadically but have done nothing in the sum of their careers. Wallner currently has 10 RBIs (Yelich  had 8 RBIs in one game), which I use specifically because most people today disparage that statistic. Runs scored are important and someone needs to push them towards nome plate. Wallner is 27 and has 4 years of partial play. Two years ago a friend of mine (coach of a national league team) asked me about Wallner in the outfield. I told him that his transfer and release negated his arm. That team ran on him all weekend. Wallner improved in that area last season but fell back into his old ways again. His routes are quite good and he has some fair speed but his reads put him below McCusker as an outfielder, which is still well above Larnach. Wallner ILarnach, McCusker too) needs to hit a ton to make up for the balls that fall in the outfield. Honestly these guys are all DH only types like Nelson Cruz minus the consistent production with a bat. 

Falvey crapped the bed and missed a few golden opportunities to sell high on a number of Twins players. Without an infusion via some path (trades, FA), the Twins are going to tumble. 

This is only view, of course, and others will have totally different thoughts on guys like Jeffers, Miranda, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't like the talk of trading the core

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are the beginning and the end of the core of position players on the Minnesota Twins team and both are reduced defensively since their prime, especially in range. Correa is also fighting his swing and finding difficulty to hit consistently, particularly when it matters. Byron is really hitting wonderfully right now and looking good on the bases as well. Sometime fans need to be objective even while still loyal followers and supporters of their teams.

[BrokenCompass]

Title should have been "Rock Bottom". 

This is a 90-loss 4th place team as it stands. Get rid of everything you can, keep Lewis and Ryan and blow the rest of it up. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I think the hope is get to the break at .500.

This is exactly what I wrote in May and it is still true today. Twins fans should consider it a success if the team arrives to the All Star Game with an even record.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

When is this organization going to develop actual starting pitching? Two guys were developed in the last 15 years that ended up being competent starters. Berrios and Ober. Ryan pitched two games in the twins system before being called up. Why are other teams seemingly able to develop starters and the twins aren’t? Today, we chose to use an opener because we don’t trust one of the “pipeline” guys we’ve allegedly developed to see the top of the order more than twice. Scouting and development seems to leave a lot to be desired.

It’s not going to get much better when Falvey’s revolutionary pitching program caps nearly all SP prospects at 4 innings per outing. 

On the broadcast today, Cory and Trevor shared their conversation with Duran asking if he misses starting. Which he said yes. I bet if you ask most pitchers individually, they take pride in starting and pitching as many innings as possible. Yet Falvey is creating an entire organization of pitchers who aren’t prepared to be an MLB starter. 

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s not going to get much better when Falvey’s revolutionary pitching program caps nearly all SP prospects at 4 innings per outing. 

On the broadcast today, Cory and Trevor shared their conversation with Duran asking if he misses starting. Which he said yes. I bet if you ask most pitchers individually, they take pride in starting and pitching as many innings as possible. Yet Falvey is creating an entire organization of pitchers who aren’t prepared to be an MLB starter. 

Even the starters aren't prepared to be starters. 

Festa topped out at 102 IP in any minor league season. 92 IP in 24 games in 2023. 92, ferpetesakes. 

Starters go 4 or 5 innings once a week. Pretty much never throw even 100 pitches.

How the heck do they imagine that prepares anyone for any kind of MLB career?

 

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Guess get traded with no trade clauses all the time. 

I'm getting repetitive here, but this team is toast and should be turned over to the youth to learn, or learn they can't be counted on. 

😡 They´re coming to take the fans away,

Haha, they´re coming to take the fans👽 away,
Ho ho, hee hee, ha ha,
To the funny farm
Where life is beautiful all the time
And I´ll be happy to see
Those nice young men
In their clean white coats
And they´re coming to take me AWAY,
HA HAAAA☠️

[NYCTK]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

lose a lot of fans while you're at it.

There is near zero risk of losing fan interest. They drew 21K on a Sunday against a team that typically has a large visiting crowd. For comparison they drew 36K last year against the Brewers Sunday game.