Why This Trade Deadline May Be Another Disappointment for Minnesota Twins Fans

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

After losing Pablo López, the Twins' starting rotation is far from full strength. There was plenty of hope for Zebby Matthews, until he went down himself. Meanwhile, the lineup remains mired in mediocrity, with several positions that could stand an upgrade. Despite these needs and the Twins remaining in the middle of the playoff hunt, however, it may not be worth it for fans to get their hopes up at the trade deadline.

The last time the Twins operated like a team that wanted to compete for a championship at the trade deadline was 2022. Unfortunately, their attempts are not fondly remembered. The Twins acquired Tyler Mahle, Jorge López, and Michael Fulmer. Fulmer was a valuable setup man, but the other two acquisitions turned out to be painful reminders of how going “all-in” can backfire.

Even if the prospects the Twins gave up in 2022 haven’t developed into superstars, the Twins' gamble at that deadline turned out to be a painful one. The team fell out of contention, and the team control of the Mahle and López turned out to be worth very little. It’s fair to wonder whether the brutal return on the 2022 trade deadline continues to influence their decision-making to this day.

In 2023, the team found itself in need of a right-handed hitter, as usual. They could also have used relief help, after the previously acquired Jorge López imploded and Brock Stewart suffered a setback on his IL stint, making the future of his season murky. Instead, they made one sole move, flipping López for Dylan Floro, who was a non-factor down the stretch. The team was proven correct in their assessment of the roster, as they went on to make the playoffs and break their postseason win drought.

In 2024, the story was much of the same. The roster had sustained several injuries, including Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa. Still, the team remained afloat and in contention into mid-August, when it all finally fell apart. Despite their needs, the Twins acquired Trevor Richards as their lone addition, then designated him for assignment before the end of the season. This time, their faith in the roster didn’t pay off.

The 2025 trade deadline will be a completely different animal for the Twins. Their roster has some very real needs, but the organizational context will play a huge part. Like last season, the payroll will be a limiting factor in whom they can even consider acquiring. The Pohlads’ days are (hopefully) numbered in the ownership role, and they likely don’t see much personal benefit in taking on money for the stretch run. It could be argued that winning would raise the asking price of the team, but unless they think they’re winning the World Series, their finish to the 2025 season will likely carry very little weight in a $1.5 billion sale. 

The orders may be more along the lines of “don’t shake things up too much.” Depleting the farm system in pursuit of impact big-league players could carry too much risk, depending on the stage of the sale process. If the front office misses on big swings involving top-end prospects while negotiations are ongoing, the perception of the team’s future success could become a negotiating chip. The Pohlads may simply inform the front office that impact additions are not an option this year.

Given this front office’s risk-averse nature at the last two deadlines and the state of the payroll and ownership, it’s hard to imagine the team acquiring impact players at the 2025 trade deadline. Doing so would require either taking on salary or overpaying in prospect capital to avoid adding millions to the ever-growing debt the Pohlads have found themselves in.

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Perhaps the team will surprise us and see an opportunity to add to a roster that is already very capable of competing. However, there is no shortage of reasons to be skeptical. Do you think the Twins will make meaningful additions to the roster at the deadline for the first time in three years? Let us know below!

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[Dman]

I agree with the article.  If things stay the same through the deadline the Twins don't have much ability to take on more payroll and I don't think they have many assets worth trading that would solve the hitting issues they have.  I think this is a guys in the room need to step up kind of thing.  The brotherhood needs to produce or it will fall apart like last year.

If they were to fall back it could be sellers deadline for the Twins as they have some interesting guys with just this year left.  Have to wait and see, but most likely scenario is a quiet deadline.

[twinfan]

"Very real needs"? Where? I can see replacing those who are injured but I don't see this smaller market team doing much in terms of high upgrades at the deadline. I'd rather make a bigger splash in the off season where we might get a big star free agent for more than a stretch run. Bring up the best prospects now and let's see what they can do rather than trading them away for a rental. The only person I can see the Twins dealing right now is Vasquez who might bring back someone of good quality. Good defensive catchers are hard to find. Otherwise we will try to fill a hole here and there. What we have is decent though not of the highest quality but can win if properly managed and doesn't get continually hurt.

[tony&rodney]

The fail has been not gambling big in the past 2 offseasons.

[DJL44]

The best value acquisitions at the deadline are veteran role players and bullpen arms. There are players who could help, but there are also no glaring needs. There's always room for another reliever.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Twins are in a bit of a catch 22 situation.  On one hand, they have some specific needs and have some prospect capital they could spend.  On the other hand, they probably aren’t good enough that filling a need or two will make a substantial difference.  Add in the fact that they also probably aren’t bad enough that a fire sale is in order and you are left with a status quo type of deadline, with perhaps something small and marginal around the edges.  Not exciting, but likely the best use of resources (unless you have lots of $$$ to spend).  

[chpettit19]

At this point if they're making big time trades at the deadline I'd be hoping it's as a seller. I'm not saying they should be a seller, but this team isn't worth sacrificing the future for. They aren't close enough to being a true contender to be trading off the prospects needed to bring back needle moving players. And they need needle movers to become real contenders. Not more "floor setters." 

Unless something drastically changes in the next month and a half, it's likely the best course of action is to let this season play out with the pieces they have and make some drastic changes in the offseason. 

[Rufus]

The winners in most deadline deals are the sellers.  I cringe every year at all the calls for the Twins to make some lopsided trade for some so called help.  If a team is truly in the race for a deep play off run and has a glaring need, a deadline deal may be worth it.  But just trading away prime prospects to appease the fans and media isn't.

[mikelink45]

The movement of Alcala was needed and what we got for him was nothing of value, but then he had little value.  Our prospects do not have the cannot miss potential that we might wish.  Right now getting Keaschall back is the big thing for the lineup.  Unless Bride is going to continue in relief his position should be easily replaceable.  Clemens is coming down, but he is a bench player so what are we expecting.  

Some questions remain - do we extend or lose Paddock, do we keep the carousel turning at 1B, can we replace the $10 million man at backup C, will Lewis produce what we need, is Correa turning a bad corner? Do we have enough pitchers to complete and compete this season?  Is Tonkin really an upgrade in the pen?  Is Topa reliable?

And what would we need, or want in a trade?

[Patzky]

55 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The Twins are in a bit of a catch 22 situation.  On one hand, they have some specific needs and have some prospect capital they could spend.  On the other hand, they probably aren’t good enough that filling a need or two will make a substantial difference.  Add in the fact that they also probably aren’t bad enough that a fire sale is in order and you are left with a status quo type of deadline, with perhaps something small and marginal around the edges.  Not exciting, but likely the best use of resources (unless you have lots of $$$ to spend).  

Trevor Richards was just released. Again.

[Patzky]

32 minutes ago, Rufus said:

The winners in most deadline deals are the sellers.  I cringe every year at all the calls for the Twins to make some lopsided trade for some so called help.  If a team is truly in the race for a deep play off run and has a glaring need, a deadline deal may be worth it.  But just trading away prime prospects to appease the fans and media isn't.

The unpopular truth. 👆

[LambchoP]

Twins have a few guys on expiring contracts that we could probably get some value for. Vasquez, Castro, Bader, France. I highly doubt any of these guys will resign with us next year, maybe we can do a little buying AND selling this deadline?

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

At this point if they're making big time trades at the deadline I'd be hoping it's as a seller. I'm not saying they should be a seller, but this team isn't worth sacrificing the future for. They aren't close enough to being a true contender to be trading off the prospects needed to bring back needle moving players. And they need needle movers to become real contenders. Not more "floor setters." 

Unless something drastically changes in the next month and a half, it's likely the best course of action is to let this season play out with the pieces they have and make some drastic changes in the offseason. 

Totally agree.

Honestly, though unpopular, the smartest move would be to sell high on Paddack if he can bring back any impact prospects. 

[Blyleven2011]

In 2022 the front office made their biggest mistake in evaluating the team as contenders , they made trades that didn't work out much ...

Now in 2023 at the deadline the team was on the contending side but the front office made the mistake in evaluating the team and stood pat with the players they had ( best window of opportunity to win it all ), they were confident in their players they had ,  but we had holes to fill to put us in the opportunity to win it all , yes we won the division and some wins in the playoffs  , it was a good season but could have been  better ...

Then came the off season 2023 - 24 and the payroll reduced , and no action at the deadline to keep us competitive believing that the 2023 players would take it all again in 2024 , crash and burn ( a pink slip offense crash and burn ) ...

2024-25 off-season was insignificant , some additions , France,  Bader and coloumbe have turn out well so far ...

I see the 2025 team as competitive after the winning streak but not contenders just yet ( we were once 7 ganes above 500 ) , maybe we will know more at end of June  , most definitely by deadline what this team could be capable of doing ...

I don't see the front office or pohlads doing any additions , subtraction is most likely if it was today ...

The twins played a really good game last night , everything clicked pitching , defense and offense came through  , can't have lousy games like the night before getting blown out of the saddle where there should of been a 10 run rule , just plain ugly defense , offense and pitching ...

Right now I see the twins as a 500 club and that's better then I mentioned at the start of the season ... 

[Mike Sixel]

Not adding players at the deadline doesn't usually work either.....

That said, no way this team should deal any young player they believe in. It's a fine team, that could get lucky in the playoffs, but it's not a great team. 

Add in the budget constraints, and I see nothing happening unless they fall off a cliff and sell. 

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not adding players at the deadline doesn't usually work either.....

That said, no way this team should deal any young player they believe in. It's a fine team, that could get lucky in the playoffs, but it's not a great team. 

Add in the budget constraints, and I see nothing happening unless they fall off a cliff and sell. 

The data overwhelming suggests that trading for prospects and the deadline is far more impactful to winning than trading prospects for rentals.  The impact of trading for prospects is not immediate but it is far more effective.   That's not to say there are not times when it makes sense to add but trading when the team is not a true contender is a suckers bet.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The data overwhelming suggests that trading for prospects and the deadline is far more impactful to winning than trading prospects for rentals.  The impact of trading for prospects is not immediate but it is far more effective.   That's not to say there are not times when it makes sense to add but trading when the team is not a true contender is a suckers bet.

How has not trading worked for teams that stood pat? They didn't win either. I didn't only anything about future years at all. 

I made that last point in my post?

[LewFordLives]

If the Twins can make the playoffs, good pitching can take them far. That said, I don't see how they get there without Pablo, and replacing him would cost a king's ransom. If there's a rental starter that can be had for cheap, then the Twins should bite, but even rentals aren't cheap these days.  

[OvertheHill]

Agree with much of what’s been stated. Everything about this team and its ownership situation this year looks/feels like an 80-85 win, treading water type of season. We should be in the veteran-selling, acquiring prospects mode at the deadline. 

[Major League Ready]

On 6/12/2025 at 12:29 PM, Mike Sixel said:

How has not trading worked for teams that stood pat? They didn't win either. I didn't only anything about future years at all. 

I made that last point in my post?

You're surprised that mediocre teams that did not invest at the deadline did not win the WS?  You're surprised that teams that the organization did not think were worthy of investment did not win the WS?  When was the last time a team in the bottom half of revenue invest heavily at the deadline and those acquisitions were impactful.   There has only been one such team in the past couple of decades (2015 Royals) and Ben Zobrist sure as hell was not the difference in the Royals winning the WS.  There are literally zero examples in the past 20+ years so your logic is exceptionally flawed.  

It takes an accumulation of talent to get to the WS.  Trading long-term assets for short-term assets is very rarely the way to get that done.  If you bother to look at the winning teams in the bottom half of revenue and how their rosters were built this point in quite obvious.  

[High heat]

I wouldn’t count out being big sellers at the deadline.  

[DocBauer]

More teams in contention at the deadline means fewer teams in sell mode. More than ever, the time to build your team is in the offseason, as well as continued development within your system.

I don't see the Twins moving prospects for a power hitting 1B or quality pen arm rental. If prospects are moved, I'd rather it be after the season for someone who's god, and will be with us for more than a couple of months. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

After seeing Ober today I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the IL next. Our pitching depth is seriously being tested and I can’t see adding a starter unless it’s someone with multiple years of control. Depending on how the market looks I would expect the Twins to consider selling instead or certainly standing pat. I just don’t see them as buyers in any scenario.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Who was the last deadline move to make a difference Shannon Stewart in 03?

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The data overwhelming suggests that trading for prospects and the deadline is far more impactful to winning than trading prospects for rentals.  The impact of trading for prospects is not immediate but it is far more effective.   That's not to say there are not times when it makes sense to add but trading when the team is not a true contender is a suckers bet.

Cool, you can maybe squeeze more WAR out of some unnamed prospect over X number of seasons. That lacks an incredible amount of context if you're actually trying to measure "impact on winning."

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You're surprised that mediocre teams that did not invest at the deadline did not the WS?  You're surprised that teams that the organization did not think were worthy of investment did not win the WS?  When was the last time a team in the bottom half of revenue invest heavily at the deadline and those acquisitions were impactful.   There has only been one such team in the past couple of decades (2015 Royals) and Ben Zobrist sure as hell was not the difference in the Royals winning the WS.  There are literally zero examples in the past 20+ years so your logic is exceptionally flawed.  

It takes an accumulation of talent to get to the WS.  Trading long-term assets for short-term assets is very rarely the way to get that done.  If you bother to look at the winning teams in the bottom half of revenue and how their rosters were built this point in quite obvious.  

That accumulation of talent has to coalesce in a short window of time. Waiting for the stars to align (which is essentially what you're arguing for) is a great way to ensure mediocrity. Most prospects aren't long term assets. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

More teams in contention at the deadline means fewer teams in sell mode. More than ever, the time to build your team is in the offseason, as well as continued development within your system.

I don't see the Twins moving prospects for a power hitting 1B or quality pen arm rental. If prospects are moved, I'd rather it be after the season for someone who's god, and will be with us for more than a couple of months. 

You're paying a premium either way if that type of player is the target. At that point you might as well pull the trigger at the deadline if you're remotely serious about winning postseason games. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You're surprised that mediocre teams that did not invest at the deadline did not the WS?  You're surprised that teams that the organization did not think were worthy of investment did not win the WS?  When was the last time a team in the bottom half of revenue invest heavily at the deadline and those acquisitions were impactful.   There has only been one such team in the past couple of decades (2015 Royals) and Ben Zobrist sure as hell was not the difference in the Royals winning the WS.  There are literally zero examples in the past 20+ years so your logic is exceptionally flawed.  

It takes an accumulation of talent to get to the WS.  Trading long-term assets for short-term assets is very rarely the way to get that done.  If you bother to look at the winning teams in the bottom half of revenue and how their rosters were built this point in quite obvious.  

I'm not surprised. Where did I even hint at that? I'm saying mediocre teams don't win by trading for players, or standing pat. I literally said nothing else. Read what you want, but I never said any of what you are implying. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not surprised. Where did I even hint at that? I'm saying mediocre teams don't win by trading for players, or standing pat. I literally said nothing else. Read what you want, but I never said any of what you are implying. 

Here is exactly what you said.  "How has not trading worked for teams that stood pat? They didn't win either. "  You have made this point several times in the past few years and sure is hell is not to point out that mediocre teams are not going to win either way.  That's not at all what you were representing.   

[gman]

Sell or trade expiring contracts otherwise stand pat.

[RpR]

Right now the two players who are in a nose dive are Larnach and Wallner, yet so many say dump France and Bader.  

To want to dump the players that are performing above the Mendoza line with a bat, and are not an embarrassment with their gloves, means some here want a poorly performing team to fight to be the worst team in the league.

Lewis is gone, thank god for now, so all the , Lewis is the key bs is done probably for this year, maybe they should bring up Miranda and Julien