Could Minnesota Twins Jump Trade Market By Selling High on Chris Paddack?

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It really depends on what we would get back.  The early we traded the higher the value, but are we sure we can afford to take him out of the rotation?  Are Festa and SWR as good as he is?

If we trade the Yankees are in desperate need and desperation raises the value of the return.  Arizona needs someone now that Burnes is down.  If we trade - maximize the opportunity.

I was eyeing AZ also. If AZ were open for a Del Castillo trade. We desperately need a promising young MLB-ready 3rd catcher to help relieve Jeffers when he falters in the 2nd half & replace Vazquez next year. Of course, we'll have to throw in much more into that trade.

Paddack can't keep up the pace that he is doing w/o his arm falling off. In his last year, if AZ is motivated, yeah, trade him. Our young SPs can step up to the occasion, including long relief.

[amjgt]

He's pitching great and as many people have said, you want to ride that as long as it lasts. For me, the depth and IP he provides (even if the quality dips a little) is just as valuable.

Last year was a prime example of what can happen to an entire pitching staff when the injury bug hits, even just a little.

We lost Disclifani before the season started which dinged our depth, then we lost Joe Ryan in August and then we were counting on guys in a pennant race that probably weren't ready. Not only did this mean the starting rotation was in rough shape but it quickly destroyed the bullpen due to overuse. At that point the entire pitching staff was compromised and when the offense also went in the tank, well, that's how you go 12-28 the last 40 (or whatever it was).

Keep the depth and the hot hand. And don't worry about chasing "peak value"

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

If we trade him you don't want to see him again in October. Sheriffs hold grudges. 

My post was not a call to trade, but to be strategic if they decide to.

[madtowntwin]

Turnabout IS fair play!! It seems the Twins usual position in terms of this article is the team NEEDING a pitcher and how many treasured prospects it will cost to attain that arm. Personally, I think the sheriff needs to stick around town. The reaction in the dugout a few nights ago while he was walking off the mound following his dominant eight inning one run performance spoke volumes. A good amount of time and energy has been spent on his injury rehabilitation  and both team and player are now seeing full potential realized. Gone is the discussion of limiting Chris to bullpen. I think his moniker should be "Padlock" as he's been locking it down on the mound of late.!! Ride it out with the Sheriff and take the draft pick if you can't resign him...

And a proactive word toward any article exploring a SWR Trade - Too early!! Still think he'll be rejoining the roster sooner than later. Win Twins!!

[amjgt]

Either way, before he's gone, we need him to deputize another member of the pitching staff. 

Top 5 Candidates:

Varland

Pablo

Zebby

Duran

SWR

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My post was not a call to trade, but to be strategic if they decide to.

This front office has been fairly strategic except when forced to do something.  I feel like they forced the trades in 2022 trade deadline, although in hindsight although we didn't get a lot out of it,  it doesn't appear we gave up a major player either.  

If someone wants to overpay, I am sure they will listen.  If they think there is an option at a qualifying offer and potential draft compensation I am sure they will take that into consideration as well.   Paddack seems to have found trying to get more soft contact and not going for the strikeout as much.  He does not have the multiple years of success like other pitchers that got 60 million year contracts, and there is likely more concern with Paddacks elbow so he might actually be discounted a bit.   He might actually be one the Twins would be comfortable if he accepted a QO.  Like I said you would need a lot of things to go right.  

[Danchat]

As one who wanted to trade Paddack at the start of the season... I say keep him and ride it out. Trading players at peak value is more of an offseason thing in my opinion, unless the season is going off the rails. Keep him in the rotation so we only have to see one of Matthews/Festa/SWR starting and not two of them. At the end of the day he'd be a rental, so the price of trade wouldn't be as high as you'd like.

[LA Vikes Fan]

26 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I'd much rather keep him and wish on a 2025 performance strong enough to warrant a Qualifying Offer. I can't imagine anything we would get back would be comparable in value to a comp pick and then we don't shatter team chemistry by coldly trading away a key member of the pitching staff because he's "at peak value"

Bader is probably at peak value too. Should we trade him?

I agree with this and would add one other possibility - We might want to see if this is real and if it is, try to sign Paddack for another 2-3 years. One of the underlying premises of the article is that when his contract runs out, he will be too expensive and will simply go to another team or, at best, we will give him a QO so we get a draft pick. That is probably a safe assumption with the current ownership. However, the team is for sale. It's a least possible that a new owner would spend more on payroll to try to keep the team together, particularly if we make the postseason and go on a good run. The team is also more valuable to a potential new owner if it's winning, drawing fans (the two go hand in hand), and actually has a chance in the postseason. Paddack could be an important part of that formula.

Bottom line, I would not trade him unless the return was an established quality major league bat that could play 1B next year and had at least one or two more controllable years. Paddack alone won't generate that kind of return, so would have to be Paddack and a minor-league player outside of the top 10. Unless that return is available, and I seriously doubt that it is, I would hold onto him for this year and seriously consider trying to re-sign him for two or three more years. Maybe a three year, 45 – $50 million deal would be enough? I think that's the smarter play.

[Doctor Gast]

18 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My post was not a call to trade, but to be strategic if they decide to.

Even if it's a good idea, most likely it won't happen.

[jorgenswest]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was eyeing AZ also. If AZ were open for a Del Castillo trade. We desperately need a promising young MLB-ready 3rd catcher to help relieve Jeffers when he falters in the 2nd half & replace Vazquez next year. Of course, we'll have to throw in much more into that trade.

Paddack can't keep up the pace that he is doing w/o his arm falling off. In his last year, if AZ is motivated, yeah, trade him. Our young SPs can step up to the occasion, including long relief.

I wondered about adding Del Castillo in my reply but worried about his shoulder injury. Last year runners were already successful on 27 of 29 stolen base attempts before the injury. Do you think he will stick at catcher?

I know you really pay attention to catchers . What do you think of Miguel Amaya from the Cubs? Unfortunately he is out with an oblique injury right now.

[Patzky]

29 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with this and would add one other possibility - We might want to see if this is real and if it is, try to sign Paddack for another 2-3 years. One of the underlying premises of the article is that when his contract runs out, he will be too expensive and will simply go to another team or, at best, we will give him a QO so we get a draft pick. That is probably a safe assumption with the current ownership. However, the team is for sale. It's a least possible that a new owner would spend more on payroll to try to keep the team together, particularly if we make the postseason and go on a good run. The team is also more valuable to a potential new owner if it's winning, drawing fans (the two go hand in hand), and actually has a chance in the postseason. Paddack could be an important part of that formula.

Bottom line, I would not trade him unless the return was an established quality major league bat that could play 1B next year and had at least one or two more controllable years. Paddack alone won't generate that kind of return, so would have to be Paddack and a minor-league player outside of the top 10. Unless that return is available, and I seriously doubt that it is, I would hold onto him for this year and seriously consider trying to re-sign him for two or three more years. Maybe a three year, 45 – $50 million deal would be enough? I think that's the smarter play.

Also we have got that potential lockout looming. He may not be the 7 million man in 2026 but with that upcoming he could be a nine million dollar guy for one year

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

We had an article that the clubhouse is really down because the Twins send guys to the minors one day early (I don't believe it's affecting the clubhouse). I think trading Paddack would actually affect the clubhouse as they see him as one of the keys to our season. 

The article you are referring to was a work of fiction. Authors musings on how they would be so offended by a standard procedure that did not site a single bit of evidence for any actual player discontent. 

This is why editorial standards matter.  

[amjgt]

2 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Also we have got that potential lockout looming. He may not be the 7 million man in 2026 but with that upcoming he could be a nine million dollar guy for one year

If he pitches, largely every 5th day, and has an ERA in the 4.00 range, he's going to get at least 3/50M from someone.

If he pitches poor enough to only warrant 1/9M, then I'm not sure anyone on this website will be clamoring to have him back.

If the FO office made him an offer today of, say.... 2/35 would he bite at that? Yeah, I bet he would. I also don't see that happening and given the likelihood of a realistic mid-market payroll going forward beyond 2025, I'm not sure that makes good financial sense, with the much less expensive options waiting in the wings.

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, amjgt said:

If he pitches, largely every 5th day, and has an ERA in the 4.00 range, he's going to get at least 3/50M from someone.

If he pitches poor enough to only warrant 1/9M, then I'm not sure anyone on this website will be clamoring to have him back.

If the FO office made him an offer today of, say.... 2/35 would he bite at that? Yeah, I bet he would. I also don't see that happening and given the likelihood of a realistic mid-market payroll going forward beyond 2025, I'm not sure that makes good financial sense, with the much less expensive options waiting in the wings.

I hope those options pan out like we think they will. Really it only takes one of them to shine

 

[amjgt]

43 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with this and would add one other possibility - We might want to see if this is real and if it is, try to sign Paddack for another 2-3 years. One of the underlying premises of the article is that when his contract runs out, he will be too expensive and will simply go to another team or, at best, we will give him a QO so we get a draft pick. That is probably a safe assumption with the current ownership.

The article never actually mentions the idea of a QO, which I think was a miss by the author

[Vanimal46]

A mid market team like the Twins should always be looking to trade players on expiring contracts. Especially when there are guys in St Paul who can fill the void. 

This is a similar debate about Kepler last year. I wanted to trade him since Wallner was ready to take over his role full time. Instead we let him walk for nothing in return. We can’t keep missing these opportunities when money continues to be tight. 

[chpettit19]

This may be his peak value, but I don't think it's the best time to make a decision on being a buyer or seller. I don't like (that's the very mild way of putting it) doing nothing at the deadline. Make moves. Buy or sell, don't sit by and watch. And definitely don't fake buy by getting Trevor Richards types to pretend you did something.

I'm always open to trading anyone and everyone if the deal is right. If the Twins are blown away by an offer they should take it. But this team is too unpredictable right now to know what they should be doing in terms of trades (assuming they aren't getting some Chris Archer deal). Need to get to the end of June at least to have a better feel for what this team should be doing in terms of being a buyer or a seller.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Last year Detroit did that with Jack Flaherty. They also made the postseason. 

Thanks. That's helpful. 

I do see some significant differences from the Twins current situation. That trade happened in late July as opposed to early June. At the time of the trade, the Tigers were four games under .500 after losing six of their last nine. They were five games out of the last wild card and had to pass five teams to get to the playoffs. I don't know how much stock to put in the "playoff expectancy" calculations, but I'd have to assume theirs was pretty low at the time. I was going to say that at best, the Tigers probably saw themselves as marginal contenders, but given that they traded Andrew Chafin and Mark Canha that day as well, it seems they were pretty clearly in seller mode. 

However, one of the one of the teams ahead of them, ahem, collapsed, so they ended up sneaking in to the playoffs with the last spot. Hindsight's 20/20, but I have to wonder if come October, they were kicking themselves for having made the trade. 

If the Twins reach the point the Tigers were at when they traded Flaherty, I'm fine with trading Paddack then. But they aren't there yet.

 

Separately, that trade may also be an example of what the Twins could expect to get for Paddack. Flaherty had more track record and was having a better season than Paddack and all the Tigers got were the Dodgers No. 8 and 22 prospects at the time. The former was in High A at the time and the latter was a No. 1 pick, but currently has a 77 career OPS+ in the majors. They certainly weren't needle-movers as it related to 2024. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. That's helpful. 

I do see some significant differences from the Twins current situation. That trade happened in late July as opposed to early June. At the time of the trade, the Tigers were four games under .500 after losing six of their last nine. They were five games out of the last wild card and had to pass five teams to get to the playoffs. I don't know how much stock to put in the "playoff expectancy" calculations, but I'd have to assume theirs was pretty low at the time. I was going to say that at best, the Tigers probably saw themselves as marginal contenders, but given that they traded Andrew Chafin and Mark Canha that day as well, it seems they were pretty clearly in seller mode. 

However, one of the one of the teams ahead of them, ahem, collapsed, so they ended up sneaking in to the playoffs with the last spot. Hindsight's 20/20, but I have to wonder if come October, they were kicking themselves for having made the trade. 

If the Twins reach the point the Tigers were at when they traded Flaherty, I'm fine with trading Paddack then. But they aren't there yet.

 

Separately, that trade may also be an example of what the Twins could expect to get for Paddack. Flaherty had more track record and was having a better season than Paddack and all the Tigers got were the Dodgers No. 8 and 22 prospects at the time. The former was in High A at the time and the latter was a No. 1 pick, but currently has a 77 career OPS+ in the majors. They certainly weren't needle-movers as it related to 2024. 

Flaherty was more dominant in 2024 than Paddack has been in 2025 so far, but if he continues I do think it's reasonable to compare the deals. I guess we'll see. Lots of factors at play, and I'm definitely not of the mind that they trade Paddack now. I just meant I can see a scenario where the Twins do sell some of their free agents to be (Castro, Paddack) but ALSO be open to buy.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, T.O. said:

What position player would they replace? Unless they can find a 2nd catcher that can hit I don't see a position they would give up on. They won't do that because they would still have to pay Vasquez salary. The big non producing position is 3rd base and they're not going to give up on the experiment that is Lewis any time soon. They've been lucky this year with players other teams didn't want but that luck can't go on forever.

The team that got us here has talent. They just need to be consistent. Not sure a new hitter will bring that kind of magic.

Jonah Bride is on the roster doing mostly nothing. There's room for another bat.

[David Maro]

At this point they are in the running for a wild card spot. If you trade him and Ryan who has shown he can't pitch a whole season goes down you are back to last season. Now your finishing the season with 3 young arms again. Yes you can't think that way but pitchers are going down weekly. It may be time to ride the horses and hope they get to the playoffs.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

As one who wanted to trade Paddack at the start of the season... I say keep him and ride it out. Trading players at peak value is more of an offseason thing in my opinion, unless the season is going off the rails. Keep him in the rotation so we only have to see one of Matthews/Festa/SWR starting and not two of them. At the end of the day he'd be a rental, so the price of trade wouldn't be as high as you'd like.

Cleveland traded out of their rotation two years in a row when they were fighting for playoffs.  Detroit did it last year too. You can certainly trade guess if you feel what you have to replace will be close to equal value, but can fill a different need.  No Paddack will not fetch a ton, but too many people on here are thinking too short term about stuff.  Too many want to ride Paddack out until he regresses back to the mean, or end of the season and throw QO on him, hoping he turns it down so he when he signs elsewhere you get something in return.  

The flip side is how much worse will Festa or SWR be over him at this point, even he has no regression back to his mean or injury, I doubt it is that much regression, he still falls into 4th on our staff. If that can net you a decent prospect even, we do not need to just fill in this year.  Some would look at it as "selling" but it really is not, because you are saying we can get a good deal now, not give up much this year most likely, and restock for down the road.  If there is someone for this year you think can help, most likely just another bench bat, then okay do that. 

Of course you do not just put Paddock on the trade block and take best deal, if other teams are not sold on him you then ride him out, but it is fully worth asking teams in great need of SP.  I would much rather trade Paddock this year, then one of our guys with long control if you can get similar returns. 

[LambchoP]

I don't think our SP depth is good enough to cover for Paddack, who has been our best starter lately. Festa doesn't usually go deep into games, like Zebby, SWR could be good but ran out of gas last year. Raya, Morris and C Lewis all are clearly not ready for the bigs yet. I agree we could really use a big bat, but not if it means hurting our pitching, which is our biggest strength. Maybe with a minor league reset, Royce Lewis and eventually Keaschal can be the big bat upgrade we need.

[Jocko87]

Is it to early for a getting Royce Lewis fixed is just like making a trade article?

This was the Paddack I was hoping for when I was pushing for not trading him in the offseason when his value was lowest.  The deadline will be the correct time but it requires the trio of SWR/Festa/Matthews to be performing well.  

It's a good option to have but its hard to see an angle that improves the team more than the value he's currently providing.  If he keeps this up, Matthews or Festa to the pen and go for the qualifying offer.  

The middle of the order thumpers many want are already on the roster. 

[Vanimal46]

15 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I don't think our SP depth is good enough to cover for Paddack, who has been our best starter lately. Festa doesn't usually go deep into games, like Zebby, SWR could be good but ran out of gas last year. Raya, Morris and C Lewis all are clearly not ready for the bigs yet. I agree we could really use a big bat, but not if it means hurting our pitching, which is our biggest strength. Maybe with a minor league reset, Royce Lewis and eventually Keaschal can be the big bat upgrade we need.

Either we have a pitching pipeline or we don’t… After 9 years I’d like to figure out if the pitching pipeline ™️ is real… Adams and Festa are 25, Cory Lewis turns 25 later this year, and Morris turns 24 later this year. These prospects aren’t spring chickens anymore. Let’s see what they can do. 

[Vanimal46]

Also, for the folks saying offer the QO and hope he turns it down… Paddack was an 8th round pick who has made $16 million in career earnings. The QO is going to be, what, $25 million next year? He would accept that in a heart beat. 

[DJL44]

Rumors are starting about the Red Sox selling Alex Bregman. That's exactly what the Twins need.

[Danchat]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Either we have a pitching pipeline or we don’t… After 9 years I’d like to figure out if the pitching pipeline ™️ is real… Adams and Festa are 25, Cory Lewis turns 25 later this year, and Morris turns 24 later this year. These prospects aren’t spring chickens anymore. Let’s see what they can do. 

They may have a bullpen pipeline, given how Jax and Sands went from middle of the road starter prospects to capable relievers, several of these arms will probably have similar trajectories. But a pipeline of starting pitchers... I'll believe it when I see it.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins would likely have better luck trading one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober for something significant and I'm not too sure how people feel about that idea.

Perhaps Jarren Duran (LF) or Tyler Soderstrom (1B) can be pried away from their teams for one of the "core" pitchers. I'm not sure what value Paddack has to other teams. Would Arizona panic enough to give up Jordan Lawler (SS, 3B, 2B), who has not done well in brief MLB trials, or Adrian Del Castillo (C) for Paddack and and Alcala or a minor league pitcher? 

The Twins could use a bat but the odds of acquiring one are really slim. Perhaps the Twins current wood collection begins to perform in a steady fashion.

[Beast]

With his track record, they wouldn’t get that much in return.

They couldn’t even come close to replacing his recent production internally or externally.

There is no reason to trade Paddack.  Especially now that they’re back in the playoff discussion.  Zero chance of that happening.