The Twins May Need to Give Up Pitching for Offense

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Despite a 31-27 record, the Twins are 24th in runs scored per game, 24th in OPS+, 25th in total bases, and 21st in offensive fWAR. They're in the thick of the race, but offensively, it has not been pretty. The thing keeping the Twins' season alive has been their pitching. They have the third-best ERA+, WHIP, FIP, and opponent’s wOBA. They boast both high-end talent like Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, a serviceable veteran in Chris Paddack, and young depth in Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Andrew Morris—any of whom would be full-season members of the rotation in Twins’ seasons past.

Some may call it an embarrassment of riches. Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and C.J. Culpepper all sit in the high minors. Although they are not as MLB-ready as the aforementioned names, there are reasons to be excited about each of them, as well.

Before you go and get all excited, I have to say (by law) that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP). They get hurt; their stuff doesn’t play in the big leagues; their lack of control gets exploited; they don’t have enough quality pitches. However it happens, you don’t actually have a pitcher until he sees success in the majors. Also, if I didn’t say it before, they get hurt. I mean they get hurt a lot.

I’ve been wrestling with this piece for weeks (yes, I do try to put thought into my writing, even if it might read otherwise) for that very reason. The Twins have an embarrassment of riches in their pitching depth, but that depth may be needed for injury reasons (or ineffectiveness reasons, as was seen with Woods Richardson last month). But also, that depth might not materialize as big-league talent this year, especially if a piece or two are removed via trade.

But, still, the Twins need hitting, and some of this pitching depth may be at the highest value they’ll ever have. Let’s break down the case for and against trading pitching prospects to bolster the fledgling lineup.

Let’s Get Shopping
The Twins currently have seven different starters who have seen some level of success—or have reason to believe in them—and have started at least 10 games in the big leagues. Their top three—López, Ryan, and Ober—are locked in and pitching very well. Paddack has been good for a back-end starter, and is in no danger of losing his spot in the near future. So they have three (four, if you include Morris) guys for one spot, assuming there’s no injury.

Come next season, Paddack will be gone, but the other seven will still be around, and it’s almost inevitable that one or two pieces will be sent off somewhere. Granted, that might be cashing in on one of the more expensive veterans, but it’s not as if the room is slated to become any less crowded.

The Twins simply need hitting. They have a rotation that can make them a competitive playoff team, but they need to be able to score runs. The team is 27-4 when scoring at least four runs. They need to be able to score those four runs. But they’re in the bottom half of the league offensively at almost any position, and an upgrade at DH is very manageable. Any notable name would make a huge difference for them, but that takes prospect capital at midseason.

That prospect capital is also in a perfect spot to be spent. No one name is currently being relied on. His spot can be backfilled. Many of the potential names are unproven, which makes it easier for other teams to dream on them as future building blocks of a rotation. The most responsible thing to do may be to flip them before they prove ineffective or get injured. Shoot, Randy Dobnak and Darren McCaughan can eat some innings, if that’s what the team needs after a trade, if the depth is depleted.

Again, this team has a lot of pitching and desperately needs some thump. It’s easy to look at a team like the Orioles (who have exciting hitters, no pitching, and are likely done competing already for the season) and put the pieces together.

Hold Your Horses, Partner
I mean, this part could just be me repeating “there’s no such thing as too much pitching” over and over again.

But it’s something that we’re watching play out right now. Woods Richardson was recently demoted for performance issues, and Matthews has been shaky thus far in his abbreviated stint—though he hasn't been a disaster. Festa had three good starts early in the year filling in for López, but he was recently shut down with arm fatigue, though he's back now. And although Paddack has been thriving since his April blowup against the White Sox, there’s reason to be suspicious of him having continued success or health, which may necessitate even more starts for the less experienced players.

Beyond that ever-looming threat, there’s also a philosophical issue. The Twins have only traded for one hitter mid-season during the Derek Falvey regime, and that “hitter” was third catcher Sandy León. The Twins have not valued bats at the trade deadline, potentially because a single hitter’s effect on winning and losing is a bit less defined. Pitching additions replace the weakest starter or reliever. The drop-off may not be as stark when adding a first baseman, DH, or outfielder, specifically; it's rare that a high-end player is available (let alone at a palatable price) at the same place where you have a profound need.

Furthermore, the Twins have (justifiably) shied away from short-term players. A name like Ryan O'Hearn of the Orioles would certainly improve the lineup, but at the end of the year, he would be a free agent. Flipping a pitching prospect for an expiring contract echoes the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa for Ryan. It would be painful to watch that play out against the Twins this time. 

There’s no guarantee that the Twins will continue to produce pitching prospects like they have over the past couple of seasons, either. We shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security in that regard. The bevy of notable top-20, high-minors pitchers the Twins have right now might not be the new rule.

Oh, also there might not be any payroll flexibility, given the ownership situation. Maybe all that money went to purchasing Kody Clemens’s contract.

So where do you sit on this one? Are you in favor of dealing from a position of strength to dig the offense out of the cellar, or would you prefer to keep those valuable pitching assets and hope internal reinforcement and regression solve the issue? Me, personally, I really don’t know.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good defense helps make good pitching. I don't want any more "thumpers" who either "thump" or strike out. The Twins batting averages have been steadily improving as the weather has warmed up. Most starting position players are hitting around .250, except for Lewis. Lewis is a mystery to me. I suggest a sports psychologist and Lewis have some long discussions to see what is going on. Or Lewis could just spend some quality time with C-4, who may be one of the smartest baseball players playing today. I would not trade any pitching right now. Even if the  trading of Paddock,  makes sense "for economic reasons", since he will be a free agent at the end of the year, great teams win now and don't always  "wait til next year". Especially during a pennant race, which would send a negative message to the rest of the team. This team has great chemistry. Don't change the formular.  The bullpen has been very good. When will Danny C. return? He is an important missing piece of this puzzle. 

[TheLeviathan]

One of the key values in building a pitching pipeline is using it to fill gaps in the lineup.  This team should absolutely be in the market for a Colby Mayo or someone else they can add from their depth.

[Major League Ready]

Nobody is trading an impact bat right now unless they get waaaay overpaid.  That's never smart.  We just got Wallner and Buxton back and Keaschall will be back too.  Let's see what they look like before we panic. 

Do we really have an excess?  What about next year when Paddack is gone and what if SWR continues to be questionable as a starter?  Matthews and either Festa or SWR fill out the rotation.  That's not much depth.

[mluebker]

With the miracle of both Buxton and Correa out there again, Wallner back, and guys like Castro and France stepping up, I’m good with hanging onto the pitching and waiting to see what happens, offense-wise. Maybe someone could wake up Lewis, though. The sleepwalking isn’t working.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think they will add a bat before the deadline. I don't think it HAS to be someone who has a ton of team control or would cost a LOT in terms of prospect capital. That's partly due to not needing to trade those guys, but also I'm just assuming there will be a stoppage after the 2026 season. So if they can trade for someone who is team controlled for the rest of this year and/or for 2026, that'd certainly help for now without having to trade a ton away.

Someone like Yandy Diaz would be great in the middle of the lineup. His actual numbers are all down, but his expected numbers are all outstanding, his baseball savant page is all red, and the Twins have made multiple trades with the Rays over the past few years. He is team controlled through 2026, and the Rays have a number of 1B prospect types who are close to the majors or already up like Jonathan Aranda. 

I do agree with the premise of the article though. And because the Twins are playing well, I want them to make an attempt to go for it this year.

[Trov]

I would look to move Paddock if you want offense.  I agree, there is no such thing as a true pitching prospect, and as you pointed out they get hurt a lot.  Which is exactly why you need as many arms as you can get.  Paddock is gone after this year, so trade him for offense this year, and maybe too some minor league depth too. 

That is what Cleveland does.  On back to back years they traded away one of their best pitchers in their rotation for depth and offense.  They had the arms ready to come up from minors to not fully replace abut to fill in well enough.  Then the guys that got traded away gave little value the next season to the teams that traded for them, and a couple of times their careers were basically over. 

I have said for years, unless you are a future HOF pitcher most top pitchers fall off a cliff around age 30.  Some bounce back after injuries and learn how to pitch differently, but many just keep getting chances with teams hoping they can be something again. 

[amjgt]

Ryan O'Hearn feels like the right level of:

1. Playing well this year (176 OPS+)

2. Decent track record (125-ish OPS+ the last three years)

3. Doesn't cost too much money ($8M in 2025)

4. No long-term commitment (free agent after this season)

5. Probably wouldn't cost too much to acquire (pitching prospect in our 10-15 range?)

[Jeff K]

Lewis and Keaschel are seemingly the keys to improved hitting for the Twins.  I love what Cody Clemens has done for the Twins, but I don't trust that he can keep it up.  I hope that mistrust is misguided!  That said, I think I'd wait a bit to see how they play when Keaschel is back.  Paddack will never be worth more than he is today, but hopefully he can get through June pitching well which buys the Twins time to see if hitting remains a problem.  The Twins don't have good depth at 1st base.  I think they should start working McCusker at that position with St. Paul.  Might not help this year, but it could pay dividends next year.  

Edited June 2, 2025 by Jeff K
spelling

[Road trip]

Paddack is at absolute peak value right now.  Nothing in his track record suggests his frankly amazing 5 game streak is sustainable.  If something like Paddack plus a prospect such as Raya can bring an impact bat that is controllable beyond this year.... well, go for it.

[amjgt]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would look to move Paddock if you want offense.  I agree, there is no such thing as a true pitching prospect, and as you pointed out they get hurt a lot.  Which is exactly why you need as many arms as you can get.  Paddock is gone after this year, so trade him for offense this year, and maybe too some minor league depth too. 

That is what Cleveland does.  On back to back years they traded away one of their best pitchers in their rotation for depth and offense.  They had the arms ready to come up from minors to not fully replace abut to fill in well enough.  Then the guys that got traded away gave little value the next season to the teams that traded for them, and a couple of times their careers were basically over. 

I have said for years, unless you are a future HOF pitcher most top pitchers fall off a cliff around age 30.  Some bounce back after injuries and learn how to pitch differently, but many just keep getting chances with teams hoping they can be something again. 

I'm not sure what trading Paddack really accomplishes, unless maybe it's a three team trade.

If Paddack continues to pitch really well, then he definitely has value, but a team that's going to want a pitching rental isn't going to want to give up any of their remotely decent MLB hitters and Paddack isn't good enough to pry a really good hitting prospect away from a team.

[ryan189]

I'm sure someone would want cj cullpepper he has been hurt all year to get a bat these articles are funny

[amjgt]

15 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Paddack is at absolute peak value right now.  Nothing in his track record suggests his frankly amazing 5 game streak is sustainable.  If something like Paddack plus a prospect such as Raya can bring an impact bat that is controllable beyond this year.... well, go for it.

10 games.

2.17 ERA since April 10th

Obviously unsustainable, but that's basically a third of a season, so SOMETHING must have clicked (or he's just actually healthy).

[DJL44]

Mountcastle is having a down season, is currently injured and looks like a non-tender candidate this offseason. He could be bought low. Ryan O'Hearn is a pending free agent and is playing well right now, I'd rather have O'Hearn at the moment. I'd also love to swipe Hunter Goodman off the Rockies roster.

The team could clearly use another bat. They're getting very little offense out of 1B and 3B. Kody Clemens is not going to hit like Shohei Ohtani for the whole season. It would be ideal to find a team interested in giving Miranda or Julien another chance.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry no. I like many of the pitching prospects, but they aren't brining back a middle of the order bat. And this team doesn't need to add more 'eh' hitters.

I also still don't want lame duck ownership and front office members making big long term decisions so a big prospect package for a better player?  Nope, these guys can't be allowed to make that call.

[Fatbat]

Depth is always an illusion. We don’t have enough pitching. We have great hitters that have been injured and Lewis is currently lost but I would expect that he will find his swing soon. 
by the trade deadline, we may need to trade for pitching so I would not be out looking for a big bat on the trade market. 
LK will be back in 5 weeks and will spark the offense by getting on base 5 times in 3 AB’s😂

Seriously tho. We need another RP to step up and we need all the young guys that swing a bat to step it up. See ball, hit ball. 

[Dennesey55347]

This post could apply to any year of the Buxton era. Cruz has been the only consistent RBI producer during that time. He's also the last guy pitchers respected. Hitters time and time again getting the minimum numbers of expected runs per scenario (they might have the record for most 3-hit innings without a run scored). If you tilted the stadium so that gravity would force everything to fall towards home plate, they would still find a way to not score. Also, who is the last rookie (sensation) that's been called up that exceeded expectations? How many first round picks became LEGITIMATE Twins mainstays? I'm not seeing any consistently good hitter hitting the market anytime soon....that would want to join this lineup of under-performers. FYI: This squad has a lower batting average and OBP right now than the 2011 and 2016 teams- arguably the worst 2 squads over the last 70 years. The offensive futility seems to be chronic.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It's always about the price and return.  Absolutely, I'm a fan of trading any one of our pitchers, for the right return.  Unfortunately, the Twins' idea of the right return and the other teams (or mine) are likely going to be different.  What I'm not a fan of is trading for the sake of trading -- creating churn just to make it look like something happened. 

Until we know the target and the proposed package from the team that is willing to actually trade said package, this is just us saying "Looky here! We've got a bunch of pitchers!" Right now, nothing is likely to happen until for at least 5 or 6 weeks.  Let's wait a little longer before the speculation gets out of control. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Lewis and Keaschel are seemingly the keys to improved hitting for the Twins.  I love what Cody Clemens has done for the Twins, but I don't trust that he can keep it up.  I hope that mistrust is misguided!  That said, I think I'd wait a bit to see how they play when Keaschel is back.  Paddack will never be worth more than he is today, but hopefully he can get through June pitching well which buys the Twins time to see if hitting remains a problem.  The Twins don't have good depth at 1st base.  I think they should start working McCusker at that position with St. Paul.  Might not help this year, but it could pay dividends next year.  

I think we need to pump the breaks on Keaschel.  As good as he was when he was here, it was a very SSS and thinking he will save the offense is a stretch.  I would be happy to be wrong.   Paddack has been solid and selling him gets us not much in return right now.   The trio of Zebby/Festa/SWR is insurance - but I want a trade of one of them to happen for a bat if that is what the deadline brings

 

[mickster]

2 minutes ago, mickster said:

I think we need to pump the breaks on Keaschel.  As good as he was when he was here, it was a very SSS and thinking he will save the offense is a stretch.  I would be happy to be wrong.   Paddack has been solid and selling him gets us not much in return right now.   The trio of Zebby/Festa/SWR is insurance - but I want a trade of one of them to happen for a bat if that is what the deadline brings

 

that is brakes, not breaks :)

[tony&rodney]

The window for gamble trades was last November/December. There may not be any players available who carry healthy wood, Would the Twins play a prospect like Colby Mayo or be more likely to use him to pinch hit 3 times a week? Unless Boston or Arizona have some ideas that are mutually beneficial, I'm thinking the Twins are rolling with what they have. Falvey made more than a few statements that this team was what he envisioned and I don't see him making a change.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do think they will add a bat before the deadline. I don't think it HAS to be someone who has a ton of team control or would cost a LOT in terms of prospect capital. That's partly due to not needing to trade those guys, but also I'm just assuming there will be a stoppage after the 2026 season. So if they can trade for someone who is team controlled for the rest of this year and/or for 2026, that'd certainly help for now without having to trade a ton away.

Someone like Yandy Diaz would be great in the middle of the lineup. His actual numbers are all down, but his expected numbers are all outstanding, his baseball savant page is all red, and the Twins have made multiple trades with the Rays over the past few years. He is team controlled through 2026, and the Rays have a number of 1B prospect types who are close to the majors or already up like Jonathan Aranda. 

I do agree with the premise of the article though. And because the Twins are playing well, I want them to make an attempt to go for it this year.

Diaz remains a viable offensive player and available so this suggestion is worth a look. What would TB want in return? Once again the Rays look like a formidable team with a pile of options in most positions along with good pitching. When Tampa Bay talks trade in their current situation they will look to hook a really strong prospect for their guy. I could see TB asking for K. Culpepper and Raya for Diaz. Falvey should shake his head side to side in that case.

[Linus]

I believe the trade deadline is a bad time to make trades now. With expanded playoffs there are more buyers than sellers which means higher prices. I wanted to trade for an outfield bat last off season - the FO stuck with their group of emerging players which was a defensible strategy. Unfortunately most of those players have tanked. I think we need to stand Pat and hope some guys start hitting and then address this more long term in the off season. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Diaz remains a viable offensive player and available so this suggestion is worth a look. What would TB want in return? Once again the Rays look like a formidable team with a pile of options in most positions along with good pitching. When Tampa Bay talks trade in their current situation they will look to hook a really strong prospect for their guy. I could see TB asking for K. Culpepper and Raya for Diaz. Falvey should shake his head side to side in that case.

Yeah, that'd be too much in my opinion. But Raya as a starting point could work. I don't think Culpepper would go for someone like Diaz who is only team controlled for one more year.

IF the Rays were open to trading him, I'd imagine Raya and a low level arm could interest them for sure.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

I believe the trade deadline is a bad time to make trades now. With expanded playoffs there are more buyers than sellers which means higher prices. I wanted to trade for an outfield bat last off season - the FO stuck with their group of emerging players which was a defensible strategy. Unfortunately most of those players have tanked. I think we need to stand Pat and hope some guys start hitting and then address this more long term in the off season. 

I totally agree the Twins missed out last offseason but should hold for now. I have wondered if Boston would swap Duran for Ober. Duran is down a bit this season and has suffered with his mental health in the past do this is unlikely.

[LambchoP]

I'm not convinced we have as much quality depth as people think. Raya, Morris and C Lewis have all been hit hard at AAA this year. Paddack's value is probably highest now with some regression probable. If we were to trade for a bat it should be a third baseman with some pop. Not sure who would be available and what else we'd have to give up. Let's wait and see how the team shapes up once Keaschal is back. If he picks up where he left off he can be a real productive 2 baseman. They could send Lewis down to St Paul to find his swing with Castro and Lee covering 3rd in the meantime.

[Twodogs]

Understand that when you trade from a position of strength.  That strength becomes less strong.  The Twins success can probably be mostly attributed to this position of strength.  So if the Twins make their strong points weaker so now they are not strong but average.  If they somehow pry away some decent bat from some other team.  Which would make their weak point also average.  Now you would have all facets of your game as average.  Probably not a playoff team?  JMO.  But if they ride their strength?  They might be able to get this squad into the playoffs.  

 

Let's be realistic, most of the problems with the Twins were created with no movement during the off season.  So they have some strength, I say ride that until the trade deadline and see where they are at then?

[AKTwinsFan]

We got thumpers waiting in the wings. Can we focus on our coaching staff? Let's replace the 1st and 3rd base coaches with someone who can help us steal more, and someone who doesn't send any and all players home on hits directly to outfielders. We've lost how many games since last year by Watkins sending runners home on plays that should have been held up at 3rd. 

[Western SD Fan]

Right now, it seems the Twins do not know what they really have.  This has been another reason for advocating for Lewis to be sent down ASAP, so they know what they are going to have in him going forward, or at least by the deadline.  I don't see them trading for a 1B unless France completely tanks and starts making Lewis' at bats look competent as we know this FO loves them some low-paid veterans with something to prove.  

 

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan O'Hearn is a pending free agent and is playing well right now, I'd rather have O'Hearn at the moment. I'd also love to swipe Hunter Goodman off the Rockies roster.

Hand up, I meant to say O'Hearn but my fingers said Mountcastle. There are too many Ryans in the world.