How the Twins and the Orioles Can Match Up On a Joe Ryan Trade

[LambchoP]

I think Ryan is possibly our best starter, why would we trade him. More realistic would be trading Paddack or SWR along with some other pieces in order to get something decent back. If the Twins plan to compete, which they at least say they do, you don't trade a cheap, all star caliber pitcher that has multiple years of control. That said, we do need a catcher badly, but not at the expense of our number 1 or 2 SP...

[Craig Arko]

Hahahahaha!

No.

[miller761]

Why not trade Ober if you are going to trade? 2 plus years of all star caliber pitching in Ryan is a lot to give up for prospects. That is what they are they have not proven anything at MLB level. If they fizzle out we have nothing. Besides Ryan will be need if we make the playoffs and you can't give up on that yet. Looks to be just like last year, 2 wild card teams from the Central Division.

[Riverbrian]

Buyers buy and Sellers Sell. 

The Orioles have to reach buyers status before this discussion is even worthy of discussion.  

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Not only is trading Ryan very stupid, I think you guys have the trade reversed. It would be the Twins trading prospects to the Orioles for a Frontline player, not the other way around. The Orioles season is close to over. They are already far behind in a very tough division and nine games below .500. They need to think about getting them next year so it makes no sense for them to trade prospects that are close to major league ready to get a pitcher. And if those prospects are not close to major league ready, the Twins would not want them. The more realistic trade would be the Twins trading for someone like Mountcastle by giving up someone like Paddack plus a prospect outside the top 10.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it's more likely SWR is dealt for a top prospect. He struggles the third time thru, but plenty of teams have a huge need for pitching and would like him. 

I'm hoping for a catcher or first baseman.

[dogsday]

39 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Why not trade Ober if you are going to trade? 2 plus years of all star caliber pitching in Ryan is a lot to give up for prospects. That is what they are they have not proven anything at MLB level. If they fizzle out we have nothing. Besides Ryan will be need if we make the playoffs and you can't give up on that yet. Looks to be just like last year, 2 wild card teams from the Central Division.

Agree. Unless Ober can reduce the traffic on the bases, his results seem precarious and not sustainable and he would be the one to trade (if you're going to trade any of your starters.,)

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack is the pitcher to trade this season. If the Orioles are the trade partner, I'd be okay with Paddack for Mountcastle. Mountcastle has had a bad season so far, but I don't think there is any reason to doubt his career numbers. He has an extra year of team control and Paddack is a free agent.

People freak out about a national writer writing think pieces about trade proposals because they deem them unfair, and then will propose really bad trades like this. Why in the hell would Baltimore make this trade? 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Top 30?? ROFL, this site...

Name 30 MLB starters that are better than Joe Ryan. I'll wait.

It's not a crazy idea at all, especially when you factor in his age and contract status.

[Mrs. Baseball]

Finally the pitching staff is a team strength so let's deal perhaps the #1 starter. That type of thinking eventually has them trading a batting champ for an arm. No, thank you.

[AKTwinsFan]

I thought this was a joke. If anything we should try and extend Ryan and Ober. Not trade them away. Maybe entertain a trade of one of our other up and coming pitchers like Festa or Matthews. 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

People freak out about a national writer writing think pieces about trade proposals because they deem them unfair, and then will propose really bad trades like this. Why in the hell would Baltimore make this trade? 

In about a month, they wouldn't. They'll be considering only vets for prospects trades if they're still 10 games back at the deadline. Right now, they're desperate for starting pitchers and might still think they have a chance.

Regardless, the Twins should sell Paddack to somebody. Joe Ryan shouldn't go anywhere.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, AKTwinsFan said:

I thought this was a joke. If anything we should try and extend Ryan and Ober. Not trade them away. Maybe entertain a trade of one of our other up and coming pitchers like Festa or Matthews. 

I wouldn't trade or extend Ober. Keep him until he's a free agent and give him the QO.

[NYCTK]

50 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not only is trading Ryan very stupid, I think you guys have the trade reversed. It would be the Twins trading prospects to the Orioles for a Frontline player, not the other way around. The Orioles season is close to over. They are already far behind in a very tough division and nine games below .500. They need to think about getting them next year so it makes no sense for them to trade prospects that are close to major league ready to get a pitcher. And if those prospects are not close to major league ready, the Twins would not want them. The more realistic trade would be the Twins trading for someone like Mountcastle by giving up someone like Paddack plus a prospect outside the top 10.

So you think the Orioles should be sellers, and the trade you propose they take is to take on salary, trade away a hitter under control next season, and settle for a mediocre prospect. 

 

[jjswol]

The Twins trading pitching for hitting is always a dumb idea. You can never have too much pitching. Hitting is always easier to find than pitching. Keep in mind that both pitching and hitting take time to develop.

[big dog]

3 hours ago, SarasotaBill said:

Never trade an elite young starting pitcher with multiple years left before free agency. Remember trading Garza to the Rays and feeling sick to your stomach for the next four years.

And especially don't trade one for Delmon Young.

[chpettit19]

I think the Twins should look at trading one of Pablo, Ryan, or Ober, but not until after the season. I don't like the idea of bringing back Povich, but Mayo is a top-100 prospect. Top-50 prospect on most lists, and Top-20 on quite a few. Not the type of prospect I really like (power over hit and bad defense), and I'd far prefer Basallo if they're dealing with Baltimore, but Mayo would be incredibly hard to get in a deal. He's a big time prospect and if you're expecting more than that as the main piece in a Ryan deal you're expecting too much. Baltimore fans were all over that Bowden piece ripping him apart for it being an overpay for Ryan. Generally a sign of a good trade when fans on both sides are upset.

As for trading one of their top 3 arms in general, if they fall apart again before the deadline, do it then. But if they stay in the race, do it after the season. They can't/won't pay all 3 of them and their maximum value will be with 2 years left. You won't get a Crochet package for them, but you should get 1 near MLB ready top-100 prospect for them. And if it's a catcher that'd be huge. If you don't trust Festa, Matthews, or any of the other AAA guys to step into the rotation next year by the end of this year you should be out of a job anyways.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack is the pitcher to trade this season. If the Orioles are the trade partner, I'd be okay with Paddack for Mountcastle. Mountcastle has had a bad season so far, but I don't think there is any reason to doubt his career numbers. He has an extra year of team control and Paddack is a free agent.

Paddack has negative value. Trading him sounds fine, but the Twins could only expect to get a little salary relief back or maybe a 40 man roster burden guy.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack is the pitcher to trade this season. If the Orioles are the trade partner, I'd be okay with Paddack for Mountcastle. Mountcastle has had a bad season so far, but I don't think there is any reason to doubt his career numbers. He has an extra year of team control and Paddack is a free agent.

Realistically, the Orioles wouldn't be interested in Paddack. They are likely out of it, so why would they want only a partial year of a back-of-the-rotation pitcher?

Paddack is only of interest to a team that says, "We're a smidge short on the pitching side and could use one more arm to nudge us over the top."

Injuries happen. I think there's too great of a likelihood that if the Twins trade Paddack now, come July they'll be saying, "We're a smidge short on the pitching side and could use one more arm to nudge us over the top." 

[bean5302]

 

39 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

I thought this was a joke. If anything we should try and extend Ryan and Ober. Not trade them away. Maybe entertain a trade of one of our other up and coming pitchers like Festa or Matthews. 

That's the worst idea possible IMHO. Ober's at the edge of sustainability right now with his 90mph fastball, and Ryan's value is the highest it's ever been. Both of those pitchers will be 30 next year and the Twins still have 2.5 years of team control.

Trading 6 years of Festa or Matthews to keep 2.5 years of increasingly pricy Ober or Ryan who bring double the return at the moment? Either Falvey's development pipeline exists or it doesn't.

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, jjswol said:

The Twins trading pitching for hitting is always a dumb idea. You can never have too much pitching. Hitting is always easier to find than pitching. Keep in mind that both pitching and hitting take time to develop.

That explains why the Twins have so much hitting. Also explains why league OPS is 700.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Top 30?? ROFL, this site...

He is a top 30 WAR pitcher this year.  He has been a top 30 pitcher through July of the last 2-3 years then has struggled due to injury or wearing out to ending the last couple season.  Effectively stating he is a top 30 pitcher is stating he is a low end #1 pitcher.  He looks like a low end #1 pitcher.  He has effectively been a solid #2 to high end #2 pitcher for the large portions of the last 2 1/2 years.  I am not sure where you are going with this.   

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Paddack has negative value. Trading him sounds fine, but the Twins could only expect to get a little salary relief back or maybe a 40 man roster burden guy.

The fun part of players with negative trade value on one year contract is they gain in trade value as the season progresses. Once there is only $4M left on that contract he'll look pretty good to any team with a hole in their rotation.

Trading Paddack opens up a spot for Festa and I think he's a better pitcher. 

26 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Paddack is only of interest to a team that says, "We're a smidge short on the pitching side and could use one more arm to nudge us over the top."

An article that examines which teams meet that criteria would be far more interesting than this article.

[Vanimal46]

5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Why on earth would the Twins want to trade Joe Ryan?

Just to play devils advocate, they trade him because they have had extension discussions with him and they know he’s not going to re-sign. 

To me, the better question is do we want the current FO making trades like this? If the Pohlads eventually complete a sale, then it’s likely that the new ownership will bring in their own FO/coaching staff to make decisions like this. I don’t know if I want a potential lame duck FO making moves like this. 

[Vanimal46]

I’m sure we can go back in the TD archives and see the same “hahahahahha no!” replies about trading #1 pitcher Jose Berrios too. Life moves fast in sports. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m sure we can go back in the TD archives and see the same “hahahahahha no!” replies about trading #1 pitcher Jose Berrios too. Life moves fast in sports. 

They didn't trade Berrios with this much control remaining.

[jkcarew]

Just click-bate from Bowden. And lazy click-bate at that.

Ryan won't be traded until the off-season prior to the 2027 season...or the '27 trade-deadline. For the most obvious reason. I could see him being traded earlier in a full-rebuild scenario with a new FO. But, no way this desperate administration with their 'compete in AL central' mentality is trading away Ryan this season.

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They didn't trade Berrios with this much control remaining.

Then we should get a better haul 

[Danchat]

I'm not opposed to listening to offers on Ryan, but I'd have to be blown out of the water with the offer given his team control and current performance.

Ober makes more sense to move and should still command a fairly high price. If you can get a "top prospect" for SWR, I probably make that move.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Trading 6 years of Festa or Matthews to keep 2.5 years of increasingly pricy Ober or Ryan who bring double the return at the moment? Either Falvey's development pipeline exists or it doesn't.

Given the past 8 years of pitcher development in this organization, the 6 years control of a pitching prospect isn't worth as much as it sounds like it is. They're unknowns who may or may not develop, and Falvey has been keen to keep the rotation stacked with veteran arms over playing prospects (see Ober getting buried in the 2023 rotation at the start of the year, didn't move Paddack this year). IMO you have to assume the pipeline doesn't exist.

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Why on earth would the Twins want to trade Joe Ryan? A trade proposal like this one doesn't make much sense to me. 

I'm with you, Doc. Twins have a core that can really compete if we had the right organization. I don't take Bowman seriously, his trade offer really sucks. IMO, Os don't have anyone we should be interested in. But what if the Pohlads don't sell & we're stuck with Falvey & Co.?

Twins do need a promising young catcher but IMO Bassalo is an overrated big bat that won't stick at catcher. The top of my wish list are Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero & Dalton Rushing. So my preference is a 3-way trade with CWS or LAD together with BAL. Teel & Quero are more reasonable but CWS are not, so this might not happen. LAD could be our best bet. Below is my offer.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/188041

Bradfield's speed intrigues me and IMO, speed is the future. Knack is a MLB ready LHSP.