5 Early-Season Twins Numbers That Could Be Cause for Alarm

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have had a tumultuous start to the 2025 campaign, with an up-and-down performance that has made it difficult to gauge whether this team is a contender or a pretender. There have been positives, with the team’s starting pitching, Byron Buxton’s health, and various other parts of the roster. Yet, every team has some warning signs that will start to show. Five red flags are hiding in the team’s peripheral stats—figures that, if left unaddressed, could turn a competitive window into a rough slog.

1. Harrison Bader’s worrisome xBA
Bader’s impact in left field has been twofold: dazzling defense and timely hits, especially in the season's early games. At first glance, his .280 batting average over the first few weeks suggests a renaissance. However, the underlying data raises a caution flag: Bader’s expected batting average (xBA) is in the bottom 9% of qualified hitters.

In other words, based on exit velocity and launch angle, pitchers have been getting more favorable contact than his raw average would imply. His .210 expected batting average (xBA) quantifies that regression risk. Bader’s defensive skillset will keep him in the lineup, but if those barrels dry up, the Twins will need to plug the offensive hole or risk watching their left fielder’s batting average drift back toward reality.

2. Willi Castro’s paltry exit velocity
Castro recently returned from a strained right oblique that may impact his overall numbers. More telling than his .232/.303/.362 slash line is an average exit velocity of just 84.9 mph, ranking dead last on the Twins and in the bottom 3% of hitters.

Castro’s career average is 86.0 mph, itself below MLB’s 88.5-mph benchmark, but this season’s dip compounds worries about lingering discomfort or a mechanical hitch. While Castro’s profile has never hinged on pure power, dropping further behind the league average in exit velocity shrinks his margin for error. If that velo doesn’t tick back up, Minnesota will have to weigh patience against performance, especially from a pending free agent.

3. Twins pitchers’ alarming Hard Hit % Allowed
Pitching was supposed to be Minnesota’s bedrock in 2025, but the staff’s Hard Hit % allowed ranks dead last in baseball. Many of the team’s starters struggled their first time through the order, but that has turned into improved performance since that point.

Overall, many of the troubling totals are from some of the essential bullpen pieces: Griffin Jax (62.3% Hard Hit %), Louie Varland (60.9% Hard Hit %), and Brock Stewart (59.7% Hard Hit %). Such a high frequency of well-hit balls makes success unsustainable for relievers, who work in small samples with no safety nets. Minnesota’s rotation and bullpen depth will keep games competitive, but allowing that kind of premium contact makes for a razor-thin margin. Unless the Twins can refine pitch shapes or usage patterns, especially in high-leverage relief situations, that bottom-of-the-league slugging profile will impact the team’s ability to get back into the playoff race. 

4. Louis Varland’s exit velocity conundrum
Many in and around the Twins organization were excited about Varland’s transition to a full-time reliever this season. However, the early returns have been mixed. His 93.3 mph average exit velocity against ranks as the highest among Twins pitchers, placing him in the worst 2% of MLB.

Varland has always been guilty of “meatballs,” or pitches hung over the plate that hitters feast upon. His poor exit velocity numbers are similar to his time as a starter, signaling it’s a mechanical or execution issue, not just a bout of bad luck. Manager Rocco Baldelli’s decision to deploy him heavily from the bullpen underscores how badly the Twins need his strikeout prowess. Yet, Varland must expand his arsenal around the zone to avoid turning his high-leverage offerings into easy run production for opponents.

5. Simeon Woods Richardson’s inflated xSLG
Woods Richardson was the story of 2024’s first half, as he was the team’s best rookie (and arguably a rotation savior). But he has shown some cracks in his armor as big-league teams get an extended look at him.

Through early May 2025, SWR’s expected slugging percentage (xSLG) clocks in at .533, nearly 90 points above his actual .445 mark. That gap suggests that when hitters do square him up, they’re hitting the ball with authority—and often in the air. This season's elevated projection is startling, compared to his 2024 xSLG of .373. The Twins have rewarded his 2024 performance by keeping him in the rotation, but other prospects are closing in on the big leagues. His spot isn’t in danger yet, but he’ll need to continue to refine his approach. 

Early-season anomalies rarely play out to their fullest possible extent, because luck and quick adjustments can blunt the greatest effects. However, Minnesota’s front office and coaching staff must acknowledge these hidden warning lights. This could include adjustments for Bader’s approach, re-evaluating Castro’s role, bullpen retooling for those being hit hardest, or pitch changes for Woods Richardson. And right now, some of Minnesota’s most critical contributors are posting underlying numbers that could point toward regression.

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Which statistic is most alarming? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

Not big on those types of stats but this is a good group to speculate on.  Willi Castro is the one I worry about least.  He is utility and is just back from an injury.  I think he will be fine.

Varland's going to figure out how to stop the meatball express - we have enough pitching coaches that someone should help him because his overall performance is quite good and will get better if not overused.

I am more concerned about Jax and Stewart than Varland.  These two vets have been a long way from what we saw in the past and we need them for this BP.  

Move SWR to the BP and make him the long man that they need.  5 RP per game is not sustainable and he has consistently been pulled before he completes 5.  Festa or Matthews with SWR ready to come in on short starts to fill multiple innings.

Bader has looked great AB and fielding and running.  I am really pleased.  One thing not measured in stats is attitude and he looks like he is having fun.  I think he will have a terrific year (but then predictions are not my forte).

[mnfireman]

An 80 mph exit velocity base hit looks like a 105 mph exit velocity base hit in the box score (to paraphrase an old quote).....

[Sjoski]

Bader’s xBA screams “mirage.” You can’t live off flares and bloops forever. If he stops getting lucky, that .280 turns into .210 fast.

Hard Hit % for pitchers is the most alarming stat here. Bullpen arms like Jax and Varland getting tattooed that often? That’s unsustainable, especially in tight, late-game spots.

[Whitey333]

Another article of analytics gone wild.  Nonsense.

[Old Twins Cap]

Much more concerned that Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Wallner have good years.

Twins' starters are fine, to excellent.   Not sure why Jax is getting tatooed this year, but small pieces can get fixed or changed out. 

They really should be a .500 team

Quote

 

 

[Blyleven2011]

21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Another article of analytics gone wild.  Nonsense.

Which statistics are  most alarming ...

Sorry I can't resist  ...

Owners, front office and Rocco and his coaching staff , they are not CONTENDERS , they are PRETENDERS ...

[laloesch]

57 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not big on those types of stats but this is a good group to speculate on.  Willi Castro is the one I worry about least.  He is utility and is just back from an injury.  I think he will be fine.

Varland's going to figure out how to stop the meatball express - we have enough pitching coaches that someone should help him because his overall performance is quite good and will get better if not overused.

I am more concerned about Jax and Stewart than Varland.  These two vets have been a long way from what we saw in the past and we need them for this BP.  

Move SWR to the BP and make him the long man that they need.  5 RP per game is not sustainable and he has consistently been pulled before he completes 5.  Festa or Matthews with SWR ready to come in on short starts to fill multiple innings.

Bader has looked great AB and fielding and running.  I am really pleased.  One thing not measured in stats is attitude and he looks like he is having fun.  I think he will have a terrific year (but then predictions are not my forte).

while I'm not inclined to give up yet on SWR I'm beginning to think he needs to move to the BP and assume the long man role.  So far this season he doesn't seem to be able to go deep into games, but how much of that is Rocco just pulling guys early because he fancy's it, I don't know.    

[Bodie]

49 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Bader’s xBA screams “mirage.” You can’t live off flares and bloops forever. If he stops getting lucky, that .280 turns into .210 fast.

Hard Hit % for pitchers is the most alarming stat here. Bullpen arms like Jax and Varland getting tattooed that often? That’s unsustainable, especially in tight, late-game spots.

Luis Arraez. 

[Diane]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Not big on those types of stats but this is a good group to speculate on.  Willi Castro is the one I worry about least.  He is utility and is just back from an injury.  I think he will be fine.

Varland's going to figure out how to stop the meatball express - we have enough pitching coaches that someone should help him because his overall performance is quite good and will get better if not overused.

I am more concerned about Jax and Stewart than Varland.  These two vets have been a long way from what we saw in the past and we need them for this BP.  

Move SWR to the BP and make him the long man that they need.  5 RP per game is not sustainable and he has consistently been pulled before he completes 5.  Festa or Matthews with SWR ready to come in on short starts to fill multiple innings.

Bader has looked great AB and fielding and running.  I am really pleased.  One thing not measured in stats is attitude and he looks like he is having fun.  I think he will have a terrific year (but then predictions are not my forte).

This was a great common sense answer!  I watch and go to baseball games for entertainment.  I love the game and love getting to know the players by their 'game', but I think sometimes the articles are written with far too much angst.  It's a long season, and players will have ups and downs.  I partly blame the negative reporting for dragging some players down.  Imagine if YOU were the one who always had to face scrutinizing absolutely EVERY task you did in your job.  Thanks mikelink45!

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Luis Arraez. 

There are 100 slap hitting players who flamed out offensively because they can't barrel up the ball for every one Luis Arraez.

 

[bean5302]

23 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Luis Arraez. 

Arraez's career xBA is .302. He knows exactly how to make the most of his swing. 

[bean5302]

I'm not concerned about anything in here. Varland is a middle reliever, Stewart's sample size is impossibly small and Jax has proven he's got the stuff. Bader is a defensive specialist with a questionable bat, and that's why he took a $6MM deal. I'm not counting on his bat carrying the team. 

[jdr]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Not big on those types of stats but this is a good group to speculate on.  Willi Castro is the one I worry about least.  He is utility and is just back from an injury.  I think he will be fine.

Varland's going to figure out how to stop the meatball express - we have enough pitching coaches that someone should help him because his overall performance is quite good and will get better if not overused.

I am more concerned about Jax and Stewart than Varland.  These two vets have been a long way from what we saw in the past and we need them for this BP.  

Move SWR to the BP and make him the long man that they need.  5 RP per game is not sustainable and he has consistently been pulled before he completes 5.  Festa or Matthews with SWR ready to come in on short starts to fill multiple innings.

Bader has looked great AB and fielding and running.  I am really pleased.  One thing not measured in stats is attitude and he looks like he is having fun.  I think he will have a terrific year (but then predictions are not my forte).

It`s amazing to see the comments on this pulled after 60 pitches what coach does that? or consistently does that ? With a pitcher that still has the lead and has two  outs? Yes, he did miss spots, not get first pitch strikes, and claw his way back. But he was on pace to average 12 pitches an inning with finishing 5.  His lone mistake was a hanging curve.  So, a BP arm not at all. If you want someone up there they have to beat him and they have not. So, was is it that must all those other pitchers can get their asses handed to them and stay on the bump. Compare the numbers 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

58 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Which statistics are  most alarming ...

Sorry I can't resist  ...

Owners, front office and Rocco and his coaching staff , they are not CONTENDERS , they are PRETENDERS ...

Six comments this time to blast Rocco in a non-Rocco article. Woo hoo!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I don't mind the cherry-picking of certain numbers, but sometimes they need to be taken with a grain of salt.

IMO opinion, these numbers need to be taken in context with other numbers and information to get a more accurate picture of what is going on, Injuries (Castro) and sample size (all pitchers) can play a role here. Has Bader made adjustments to his swing or approach that allow him to be more successful with less power? Was Castro playing hurt before his IL stretch? What adjustments is SWR trying to make now that everyone has seen him?

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

Luis Arraez. 

Comparing Luis Arraez to Harrison Bader at the plate is like comparing a scalpel to a whiffle bat — one carves up pitchers with precision; the other just kind of flails around and hopes for the best.

 

Arraez is a superior hitter in every meaningful way: elite bat control, minimal strikeouts, and a batting average backed up by his expected metrics. He doesn’t need luck — he simply hits. Bader, on the other hand, is riding a streak of fortunate contact. His xBA tells the real story: once the flares stop falling, that .280 batting average could nosedive to .210 in a hurry.

[Reptevia]

No “expected” metrics are concerning. They are inaccurate and fluctuate wildly. A complete waste of time. 

[LambchoP]

If SWR is never going to pitch more than 4-5 innings then I think Festa or Mathews might be the better option in the rotation with Sim often coming out of the pen first as the long man who can pitch 2-3 innings when our starters pitch a short game. Which seems to be happening a lot. I suppose the same could be said with Paddack too. Either way, using 6 pitchers per day is not going to be sustainable throughout the season.

[nicksaviking]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't mind the cherry-picking of certain numbers, but sometimes they need to be taken with a grain of salt.

IMO opinion, these numbers need to be taken in context with other numbers and information to get a more accurate picture of what is going on, Injuries (Castro) and sample size (all pitchers) can play a role here. Has Bader made adjustments to his swing or approach that allow him to be more successful with less power? Was Castro playing hurt before his IL stretch? What adjustments is SWR trying to make now that everyone has seen him?

Yeah, the bullpen should be the only long term concern, but that's a really small sample size. And as a team they strike out 25% of the batters they face, so we're not talking about that many hard hit balls overall. Those percentages can wildly swing after only a couple of outings.

As for Castro, he's the super utility player. I hope he hits, if he doesn't, well that kind of comes with the territory; this is his last year here anyway.

And Bader? We're concerned that this new Bader isn't real and that he's going to regress to being exactly the kind of hitter we thought we were getting all along? How dare he!

[amjgt]

If I was to rank those from most concerned to least concerned....

Castro - Ignoring what the numbers are telling me, he just hasn't looked very good. The fact that the numbers back that up only adds to the concern. Concern meter at 7/10

SWR - I think most can agree that he punched a little above his weight last year. So, coming into 2025, I was completely on board with giving him a starting job, but also a bit skeptical of him being as effective as 2024. The skepticism seems to have been relatively warranted based on his first 1/4 of the season. His results have been slightly better (slightly lower ERA, slightly higher K rate), but the eye test and advanced numbers tell a different story. My concern is that he'll continue to give us average to below average results (5 IP. 2-3 runs allowed) and it'll block a higher upside option at AAA. Concern meter at 6/10

Hard Hit % - Not sure that an elevated HH% has translated to an elevated HR rate, but as the weather warms that might change a little. I think that's just kind of the type of pitching staff we have. Going to give up some hard hit balls, but if you limit the walks (Lowest in Baseball) and have a high strikeout rate (7th in baseball), then you'll mostly limit big damage. Add in the fact that the bullpen has a lot of depth and we have Festa and Matthews sitting in AAA if one of the pitchers really starts to give up big damage, I'm left largely unconcerned. Concern meter at 3/10

Varland - You're sort of double dipping here with the overall hard hit %. Varland specifically feels small sample-ey to me. Concern meter at 2/10

Bader - Love his defense. Love his attitude. His offense is a bonus. He can still be a valuable member of a playoff team batting 225. Concern meter at 1/10

[Melissa]

Stewart and Jax have been a bit scary to watch, but let's hope they work out the kinks, if any.

Bader and Arráez are two totally different players. Luis has negative defensive value, and not much power. But he is a master at slapping out line-drive singles. Great set-up man.

Harrison has saved a few games already, using my eye test anyway, with his instincts and quickness reaching any ball hit his way. He's elite in center field, always a plus for the Twins even when Buxton is playing at this amazing level. And Bader seems to have that undefinable knack of occasionally hitting the big HR at a key time. And - not unimportant - he is so fun to watch! Not just for us gals, either, with his swagger.

Willi earns his spot by his ability to move around the ball field as needed (infield and corner outfield) and is an asset on the bases, too.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not concerned about anything in here. Varland is a middle reliever, Stewart's sample size is impossibly small and Jax has proven he's got the stuff. Bader is a defensive specialist with a questionable bat, and that's why he took a $6MM deal. I'm not counting on his bat carrying the team. 

Bader can hit 230/280/370 the rest of the season and his signing is still a massive success. 

[Mrs. Baseball]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Another article of analytics gone wild.  Nonsense.

Three thumbs up if allowed. Jax was "rocked" last night. Infield hit and duck toot.

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not big on those types of stats but this is a good group to speculate on.

Bader has looked great AB and fielding and running.  I am really pleased.  One thing not measured in stats is attitude and he looks like he is having fun.  I think he will have a terrific year (but then predictions are not my forte).

100% agreement on these two comments.

[JADBP]

It’s all Rocco’s fault.  There! Seven!

[Bad News TC Bears]

I think analytics are part of the whole picture but not something you should rely on entirely. Players returning from injury take time to readjust. We don't don't break the bank on high salary players... I think we do well for a small or mid market team. Wish the finances were better... What concerns me sometimes is the lack of small ball choices... Not bunting with one or two on and no outs? Am I crazy?

[Rosterman]

Worst bench ever!

[Cris E]

Bader just has to hang on until Walner comes back and then he can go sit down and wait for defensive spots and the odd tough leftie. He got off to a really good start (for him) and is now regressing to his old self. Not a concern (unless Falvey really thought April Bader was what he was going to get all year.)

Castro was hurt and then didn't even get a rehab game. Settle down.

Jax and Stewart concern me. A lot more depends on them than middle relief guy Varland.

 

 

[Doctor Wu]

23 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Another article of analytics gone wild.  Nonsense.

I'm an old school fan who is still a bit skeptical about some of the new analytics, but I'm also open to learning more about this stuff. That said, I'm still trying to understand the importance of things like exit velocity and launch angle. How much does that really matter?