Harrison Bader is the Right-Handed Version of Max Kepler—And That's Ok

[Cody Christie]

On the surface, the Twins' newest outfielder and the man he's replacing might not have much in common. However, digging deeper, it’s easy to see similarities between them.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins clearly needed a right-handed outfield bat this winter, and Harrison Bader filled that hole. He was added to the roster to fill the vacancy left by Max Kepler, who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the offseason. In an organization that has long valued strong defensive outfield play, acquiring Bader adds depth to the bench and signals a strategic shift to bolster the team’s defensive framework.

Minnesota entered the offseason with left-handed hitters Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach already in the mix as regular starters, so it made sense to let Kepler walk in free agency. The absence of a dependable right-handed option had become more pronounced. By bringing in Bader, the Twins not only gained a player who can contribute in a similar mold to Kepler, but also secured someone who can offer a different dynamic in the outfield.

Defensive Prowess
Defensively, both Bader and Kepler have earned reputations as standout players in the outfield, albeit at different positions. Kepler was known for his work in right field, where he consistently demonstrated above-average defensive skills, including being a Gold Glove finalist. Even while playing through injuries last season, Kepler posted an Outs Above Average total that ranked in the 85th percentile. Bader, on the other hand, has been a force in center field. In the 2024 season, Bader’s defensive metrics highlighted his ability to cover ground effectively, including a 95th percentile OAA. 

While Bader’s defensive play has been widely praised, his role extends beyond mere fielding. He continues to be an elite center-field defender, with Statcast ranking his arm value in the 70th percentile and his arm strength in the 86th percentile. In many ways, his presence mirrors that of Kepler, whose reliability in right field provided defensive stability. The Twins hope Byron Buxton is healthy enough to play 100 games or more in 2025, which could mean that Bader will play in a corner spot more regularly. 

Shared Offensive Challenges
Their defensive strengths have assured them of ample playing time, but neither Bader nor Kepler have been prolific at the plate. During the 2024 season, both players faced challenges on offense that reinforced a preexisting narrative—one maintaining that their value is primarily derived from their glove work, rather than their bats. Kepler finished the season with a .682 OPS, while Bader put up an even uglier .657 mark. They also tallied similar strikeout rates, exit velocities and extra-base totals. Both hitters belong near the bottom of the lineup, unless they are riding an offensive hot streak. 

The Twins, in particular, are betting on the possibility that Bader’s offensive struggles might be addressed with additional adjustments and coaching. His Baseball Savant page has more blue than a Smurf family reunion. For now, his defensive impact remains the calling card. The organization seems comfortable with this tradeoff, especially given the increasing emphasis on analytics that favors defensive metrics and versatility.

Navigating Injury Concerns
Injuries have been a recurring theme in the careers of both outfielders. Kepler has struggled with consistent availability, having not played more than 130 games since 2019 and appearing in only 105 games in 2024. Bader, too, has faced his share of health issues, including groin, hamstring, and oblique strains, as well as plantar fasciitis. However, it’s worth noting that Bader managed to play an entire season in 2024, suggesting that he might be on a more stable footing in the future. (Yes, that's a plantar fasciitis joke.) 

The decision to sign Bader is a calculated move that fits neatly into the Twins’ broader strategy. Buxton’s injury history is a persistent concern, so having a dependable defensive replacement is essential. Bader's role isn’t merely as a stopgap, because his presence allows the team to experiment with platoon combinations and optimize the lineup based on matchups. Combined with the speed he brings to the bases, his right-handed bat offers a blend of attributes that complement the existing roster.

Bader and Kepler have strong threads of baseball DNA connecting them. However, Bader was a better fit for the Twins roster because of his right-handed bat and ability to play in center. As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on Bader, to see if he can fulfill the high expectations set by his predecessor and help the Twins improve both on the field and in their overall strategic execution.

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Can Bader outperform his projections? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[stringer bell]

I have no illusions about Bader. He won't hit a lot, but he'll be good in the field and run the bases well. That's more than Manuel Margot, but less than Max Kepler. The concern I have is that Baldelli will be starting him often against right handed pitching when he has better offensive options.

[dxpavelka]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I have no illusions about Bader. He won't hit a lot, but he'll be good in the field and run the bases well. That's more than Manuel Margot, but less than Max Kepler. The concern I have is that Baldelli will be starting him often against right handed pitching when he has better offensive options.

Wouldn't "he'll be good in the field and run the bases well" be the same thing that was said about Margot a year ago?

 

[miracleb]

I thought this headline was a RandBalls joke at first.  Bader can't hit.  He is 30 years old......the Twins are not going to 'fix him."  He will not be replacing Kepler's bat....which was average at best.  He seems like a nice guy and his defense should be solid......but I don't see this as a move to improve the team.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't "he'll be good in the field and run the bases well" be the same thing that was said about Margot a year ago?

 

Yep and everybody who said that was wrong. IMHO Margot got old at age 29 and wasn't a major league caliber outfielder, hitting, running or fielding. 

[mikelink45]

When did the Twins value Defense in the OF?  They had Keirsey and used Martin and Margot in the OF.  Even when Margot could not field they only kept him because he was such a great pinch hitter.

I am not sure how we ranked over the years, but I do not think we were the standard for OF defense even when Buxton was healthy and covered all three positions.

[Aerodeliria]

Darth Bader! It could scare some opposing teams with that nickname...

[rv78]

The Twins, in particular, are betting on the possibility that Bader’s offensive struggles might be addressed with additional adjustments and coaching. His Baseball Savant page has more blue than a Smurf family reunion. For now, his defensive impact remains the calling card. The organization seems comfortable with this tradeoff, especially given the increasing emphasis on analytics that favors defensive metrics and versatility.

 

And we all know how many Championships the emphasis on analytics have brought us. LOL!

If Bader is used as a defensive replacement and ONLY as a defensive replacement then he is worth having on the team. If he is used as a platoon bat against left-handed pitchers on a regular basis over Larnach or Wallner then nothing is gained. And we all know how Rocco manages. I sense a Margot 2.0.

[Fatbat]

We pretty much don’t do well getting productive 4th OF’s that can play CF. Bader might be solidly average but we got better options going forward. It’s cool to have him as a bridge to erod/jenkins but he probs won’t have a large role after this season. 
Hopefully his defensive chops last into his mid 30’s. Doubtful his bat can be counted on.  
On the bright side, we have in house replacements that are developing that have a higher ceiling. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't "he'll be good in the field and run the bases well" be the same thing that was said about Margot a year ago?

That was actually true about Margot before he lost a step due to injury. 25-27 year old Manny Margot was a very similar player to Kepler.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Yep and everybody who said that was wrong. IMHO Margot got old at age 29 and wasn't a major league caliber outfielder, hitting, running or fielding. 

The Tigers just picked up Margot.  Seemingly Detroit has a depth problem if Margot is on the team.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I have no illusions about Bader. He won't hit a lot, but he'll be good in the field and run the bases well. That's more than Manuel Margot, but less than Max Kepler. The concern I have is that Baldelli will be starting him often against right handed pitching when he has better offensive options.

Why would Baldelli play him v. RH pitching more than he needs to - do not understand what, in his history, leans that way?

Larnach & Wallner will both start 110 games in OF without injury. Wallner may start 125 games. Larnach will DH some for semi-rest days.

To me, Bader & Castro play corner spots v. LH pitching with Buxton in CF …….Bader starts 15-20 games in LF v. RH pitching & 50 starts in CF v. RH pitching.

Maybe Kiersey gets in the mix in CF & LF?

13 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

The Tigers just picked up Margot.  Seemingly Detroit has a depth problem if Margot is on the team.

 

[chpettit19]

Like @stringer bell, my concern has always been that Bader is more than just a platoon bat, defensive replacement. I think today's lineup is likely the opening day lineup (but Bader will be in an outfield corner and Wallner or Larnach will be at DH). I think Bader was always seen as an everyday guy. That interview on Hot Stove doesn't sound like a guy who thought he was coming in to play 25% of the time. He's here to play every day. I don't think he has the bat for that. Especially in a corner. The Mets didn't think he had the bat to backup CF on their team trying to win the World Series.

Bader is going to bring a great glove. He'll bring speed. He'll run the bases well. Seems like a hard worker and good dude. I don't like him as an everyday guy. If Emma starts lighting St Paul on fire and Bader is struggling and they don't push him aside it's going to be pretty frustrating, but not surprising. We'll see how it plays out. He's another 1 year guy so he'll be out of the way next year and we'll see which 1 year guy they bring in then.

[tony&rodney]

MAT, Margot, Bader, ?

[sweetmusicviola16]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Like @stringer bell, my concern has always been that Bader is more than just a platoon bat, defensive replacement. I think today's lineup is likely the opening day lineup (but Bader will be in an outfield corner and Wallner or Larnach will be at DH). I think Bader was always seen as an everyday guy. That interview on Hot Stove doesn't sound like a guy who thought he was coming in to play 25% of the time. He's here to play every day. I don't think he has the bat for that. Especially in a corner. The Mets didn't think he had the bat to backup CF on their team trying to win the World Series.

Bader is going to bring a great glove. He'll bring speed. He'll run the bases well. Seems like a hard worker and good dude. I don't like him as an everyday guy. If Emma starts lighting St Paul on fire and Bader is struggling and they don't push him aside it's going to be pretty frustrating, but not surprising. We'll see how it plays out. He's another 1 year guy so he'll be out of the way next year and we'll see which 1 year guy they bring in then.

I agree, I'll add this, you haven't signed a guy to be your 5th highest paid player not to play a lot. He'll play a lot. 

[CRF]

Bader is a defensive replacement/backup guy. That's all. If he's playing just about every day in one of the OF spots, or at DH, then there's something wrong with this picture. When Buxton goes IL...and he will at some point...then Bader is the CF for a while. Would I rather have Bader than Margot...absolutely. Bader has also been hurt quite a bit in his career. 

[IndianaTwin]

24 minutes ago, CRF said:

Bader is a defensive replacement/backup guy. That's all. If he's playing just about every day in one of the OF spots, or at DH, then there's something wrong with this picture. When Buxton goes IL...and he will at some point...then Bader is the CF for a while. Would I rather have Bader than Margot...absolutely. Bader has also been hurt quite a bit in his career. 

I don’t think he’ll DH much, if at all. The configuration will never be Larnach, Buxton and Wallner in the OF with Bader at DH. If they wanted to play those four, one of Larnach or Wallner would DH and Bader would take his spot. 

Basically, if Bader starts, he’s either in CF for Buxton or starting in one of the corners. 

[bean5302]

First major season onwards in fWAR:
Bader vs. Margot vs Kepler
3.7 vs 2.4 vs 2.0
1.6 vs 1.0 vs 1.8
3.0* vs 1.6 vs 2.4
3.0 vs 1.5* vs 3.9
1.5 vs 2.1 vs 3.3*
0.9 vs 1.3 vs 2.2
1.3 vs  0.5 vs 1.5
N/A vs -0.2 vs 2.8
N/A vs N/A vs 1.0
*2020 season, each player played 47-50 games, multiplied WAR by 3x

Bader is a significant step up from Margot, historically, and Margot was in obvious major decline defensively while Bader hasn't shown that. Ultimately, Bader is a much better option than Margot in terms of a backup for Byron Buxton. Bader is "fine" as insurance. I don't expect great things from him, but I also don't expect a sub 1.0 WAR season from him, let alone a negative WAR season like Margot had.

In regard to comparing Bader to Kepler (who is annihilating pitchers in Spring Training), Kepler is the significantly better player. Kepler is a league average bat with some significant upside, and Max has pretty much always justified his role as an every day starter while Bader has been a backup quality player a couple times. Bader is a well below average bat without Kepler's ceiling, but Bader is the better of two defensively, by a healthy margin for the last couple years.

Bader is going to play pretty much every day. He's probably on a 1 year $9.5MM contract ($6.25 base + $1.5MM for 500 PA + $1.5MM buyout).

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't "he'll be good in the field and run the bases well" be the same thing that was said about Margot a year ago?

 

That's mean.  True.  Still mean.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

The Twins, in particular, are betting on the possibility that Bader’s offensive struggles might be addressed with additional adjustments and coaching. His Baseball Savant page has more blue than a Smurf family reunion. For now, his defensive impact remains the calling card. The organization seems comfortable with this tradeoff, especially given the increasing emphasis on analytics that favors defensive metrics and versatility.

 

And we all know how many Championships the emphasis on analytics have brought us. LOL!

If Bader is used as a defensive replacement and ONLY as a defensive replacement then he is worth having on the team. If he is used as a platoon bat against left-handed pitchers on a regular basis over Larnach or Wallner then nothing is gained. And we all know how Rocco manages. I sense a Margot 2.0.

I sense you're right.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why would Baldelli play him v. RH pitching more than he needs to - do not understand what, in his history, leans that way?

Because this FO values "depth," and "flexibility," to an extreme degree. Nothing about Bader's numbers vs. RHP suggest he should be getting much run against them but he will. Margot was allowed to set a record for all time futility as a PH last season, he came close to touching 400 PAs, and half of those PAs came against RHP against whom he posted a mighty .540 OPS. 

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if Bader ever imagined that he could be compared to Max Kepler? I'm quite sure Max Kepler never imagined himself as a LH Harrison Bader. It is an odd comparison, but serves to keep Kepler alive in our minds and hope for the best.

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Yep and everybody who said that was wrong. IMHO Margot got old at age 29 and wasn't a major league caliber outfielder, hitting, running or fielding. 

That's my point.  We're saying the same thing about Bader as we said about Margot last year.  Are you REALLY confident that we got it right this time?

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That was actually true about Margot before he lost a step due to injury. 25-27 year old Manny Margot was a very similar player to Kepler.

But a 30 year old Bader is the answer?

 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

When did the Twins value Defense in the OF?  They had Keirsey and used Martin and Margot in the OF.  Even when Margot could not field they only kept him because he was such a great pinch hitter.

I am not sure how we ranked over the years, but I do not think we were the standard for OF defense even when Buxton was healthy and covered all three positions.

Buxton & Kepler were exceptional when healthy ………. most of a decade.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Because this FO values "depth," and "flexibility," to an extreme degree. Nothing about Bader's numbers vs. RHP suggest he should be getting much run against them but he will. Margot was allowed to set a record for all time futility as a PH last season, he came close to touching 400 PAs, and half of those PAs came against RHP against whom he posted a mighty .540 OPS. 

Bader will sit behind a healthy Larnach - Buxton - Wallner……….if people get hurt the depth guys have to play more and behave like depth guys.

Margot played a bunch because Larnach had a foot problem off & on ………..Julien couldn’t hit so Castro played 2B, removing him from OF consideration………Lewis was hurt for long stretches also taking Castro out of OF consideration……….Lee couldn’t play with back injury to start the season taking Castro out of OF consideration………Wallner went down for nearly 3 months because he couldn’t hit thus pushing playing time on to Margot’s plate………Kepler & Buxton were both nicked a couple times.

Margot played a bunch due to availability - he, just like Santana, played way more often than was the intent when they were signed.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

The Twins, in particular, are betting on the possibility that Bader’s offensive struggles might be addressed with additional adjustments and coaching. His Baseball Savant page has more blue than a Smurf family reunion. For now, his defensive impact remains the calling card. The organization seems comfortable with this tradeoff, especially given the increasing emphasis on analytics that favors defensive metrics and versatility.

 

And we all know how many Championships the emphasis on analytics have brought us. LOL!

If Bader is used as a defensive replacement and ONLY as a defensive replacement then he is worth having on the team. If he is used as a platoon bat against left-handed pitchers on a regular basis over Larnach or Wallner then nothing is gained. And we all know how Rocco manages. I sense a Margot 2.0.

My impression is that he hits LH pitching much better than Larnach or Wallner - right?

He’ll start 30-60 games in CF depending upon how healthy Buxton stays and how well Kiersey hits. 40 starts v. LH pitching in corner OF ………….as infielders get healthy Castro will start in the other corner OF spot v. LH pitching. Bader also late inning defense replacement in LF, routinely with a lead.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

First major season onwards in fWAR:
Bader vs. Margot vs Kepler
3.7 vs 2.4 vs 2.0
1.6 vs 1.0 vs 1.8
3.0* vs 1.6 vs 2.4
3.0 vs 1.5* vs 3.9
1.5 vs 2.1 vs 3.3*
0.9 vs 1.3 vs 2.2
1.3 vs  0.5 vs 1.5
N/A vs -0.2 vs 2.8
N/A vs N/A vs 1.0
*2020 season, each player played 47-50 games, multiplied WAR by 3x

Bader is a significant step up from Margot, historically, and Margot was in obvious major decline defensively while Bader hasn't shown that. Ultimately, Bader is a much better option than Margot in terms of a backup for Byron Buxton. Bader is "fine" as insurance. I don't expect great things from him, but I also don't expect a sub 1.0 WAR season from him, let alone a negative WAR season like Margot had.

In regard to comparing Bader to Kepler (who is annihilating pitchers in Spring Training), Kepler is the significantly better player. Kepler is a league average bat with some significant upside, and Max has pretty much always justified his role as an every day starter while Bader has been a backup quality player a couple times. Bader is a well below average bat without Kepler's ceiling, but Bader is the better of two defensively, by a healthy margin for the last couple years.

Bader is going to play pretty much every day. He's probably on a 1 year $9.5MM contract ($6.25 base + $1.5MM for 500 PA + $1.5MM buyout).

Bad things need to happen to other’s health for Bader to get to 500 AB’s. If he works out there is no buyout and he’s back for a 2nd year.

[HerbieFan]

A right-handed version of Kepler as your 4th OF?  I think I would actually take that. :)

[DocBauer]

While i understand the intent of the OP, I can't really embrace the overall concept. A full time, day 1 Wallner is the replacement as the every day RF. Finally.

Bader is the replacement for Margot, who was the replacement for Taylor.

The Twins brought in Taylor to provide an actual, bon-a-fide CF option for Buxton who could also play some corner OF. His AVG, OB%, and K rate was bad. But he played phenomenal defense and provided some timely power. It was the first time they had a real CF to fill in for Buck.

ON PAPER, a healthy Margot, coming off a bad ankle I believe it was, was a solid idea to replace Taylor. Again, ON PAPER. But he got OLD virtually overnight. It was a bad fit and a bad add. Bader is a solid option for 2025, even though I'm not a tremendous fan. He's still an elite defender at CF who can cover the corners as well. He's got some speed and some pop/power as well. POTENTIALLY he's a solid bat against RHP, but he's been inconsistent in that regard year to year. 

I'd much rather have Rodriguez storm out of the gates and be brought up to "crowd" the lineup with "too many good LH hitters". But even then, Bader is probably on the roster due to his RH bat...if he hits at all.

But for now, he's actually the replacement for Margot, who was the replacement for Taylor.