Harrison Bader is the Right-Handed Version of Max Kepler—And That's Ok

[David HK]

Oh, gee, it looks like the Tigers have been hit with a CF injury bug-  and look what happened.... 🤭

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2025/3/23/24392300/detroit-tigers-news-manuel-margot-mlb-free-agents-milwaukee-brewers-parker-meadows-wenceel-perez

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Buxton & Kepler were exceptional when healthy ………. most of a decade.

And, of course, you create the real problem - when healthy since Buxton had averaged 77 games per year over his career.  And who were the other OFs?  2017 Grossman and Rosario and Granite.  2018 Rosario, Grossman and Cave and Johnny Field (who?) for 21 games.  2019 Cave, Ian Miller, LaMarre, and Rosario.  2020 Cave, Rosario, Rooker and Whitehead. 2021 Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder.  Taylor was the best Buxton replacement, Celestino was not ready and I think we ruined him.  Then comes Margot. 

 

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bad things need to happen to other’s health for Bader to get to 500 AB’s. If he works out there is no buyout and he’s back for a 2nd year.

Bader is going to play every day. The Twins are banking on paying him at least $8MM, and if anything has been consistent with the Twins, it's playing veterans they paid money. Manny Margot got 343 PA last year despite being terrible all year, but there is a fair degree of likelihood Bader spends a lot of time on the IL which might hold him back.
$6.25MM + $1.5M buyout + $200k for 400 PA. $8MM.

Btw, 2026 is a mutual option, and if it doesn't work out. Mutual options virtually never get picked up by both parties. If Bader "works out" as you suggest, he's going to decline the option, collect the $1.5MM from the Twins and sign a new, probably multi-year, contract elsewhere.

[KirbyDome89]

On 3/24/2025 at 9:28 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Bader will sit behind a healthy Larnach - Buxton - Wallner……….if people get hurt the depth guys have to play more and behave like depth guys.

Margot played a bunch because Larnach had a foot problem off & on ………..Julien couldn’t hit so Castro played 2B, removing him from OF consideration………Lewis was hurt for long stretches also taking Castro out of OF consideration……….Lee couldn’t play with back injury to start the season taking Castro out of OF consideration………Wallner went down for nearly 3 months because he couldn’t hit thus pushing playing time on to Margot’s plate………Kepler & Buxton were both nicked a couple times.

Margot played a bunch due to availability - he, just like Santana, played way more often than was the intent when they were signed.

This is fiction. His leash was long because they paid him. Period. He was literally worse than replacement level last year. It's not like this team didn't have options to match, or best, that type of performance. 

The Twins haven't talked about Bader in any way to suggest he's some defensive replacement/short side platoon guy. They sign these guys to play. 

[JD-TWINS]

55 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This is fiction. His leash was long because they paid him. Period. He was literally worse than replacement level last year. It's not like this team didn't have options to match, or best, that type of performance. 

The Twins haven't talked about Bader in any way to suggest he's some defensive replacement/short side platoon guy. They sign these guys to play. 

Were the guys not hurt? None of the games missed by this half dozen guys is fiction. Wallner & Julien failed the team for quite a big chunk of the season. They didn’t intend on Wallner not being able to hit - Julien being able to hit for only a month - etc. - Correa being out for couple months. Lee - Correa - Lewis were all out months not days. Castro was the leading OF candidate to fill in with Larnach hurt & Wallner being in St. Paul for extended periods……..he was on the dirt by necessity.

Who are these other effective options that were healthy & available last year?

They certainly believed in his right handed bat as they relentlessly sent him to the plate in more than 30 games to Pinch Hit, (which sucked) even though they most often just got trumped by a RH reliever & Margot went 0 - all at bats.

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Were the guys not hurt? None of the games missed by this half dozen guys is fiction. Wallner & Julien failed the team for quite a big chunk of the season. They didn’t intend on Wallner not being able to hit - Julien being able to hit for only a month - etc. - Correa being out for couple months. Lee - Correa - Lewis were all out months not days. Castro was the leading OF candidate to fill in with Larnach hurt & Wallner being in St. Paul for extended periods……..he was on the dirt by necessity.

Who are these other effective options that were healthy & available last year?

They certainly believed in his right handed bat as they relentlessly sent him to the plate in more than 30 games to Pinch Hit, (which sucked) even though they most often just got trumped by a RH reliever & Margot went 0 - all at bats.

Again, he was sub replacement level. I don't give a s*** about the injury carousel. This team was not forced, in any way, to continue feeding Margot playing time, yet he accrued 350 PAs. 

Anybody with an OF glove or an ok bat? That's the point right? Margot performed worse than a theoretical AAA/AA call up or waiver wire/minor league signing. There was ample time and opportunity to move on from a guy who couldn't defend or hit, yet they kept trotting him out there. There's zero chance that happens if he isn't a veteran player to whom they've made a financial commitment. I mean ffs Joey Gallo stayed on the roster for the entirety of the 2023 season. The leash is long. 

Of course, and I don't believe for one second that somebody making the league minimum, or with options, would've been allowed to struggle so badly for so long. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/27/2025 at 3:15 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

Again, he was sub replacement level. I don't give a s*** about the injury carousel. This team was not forced, in any way, to continue feeding Margot playing time, yet he accrued 350 PAs. 

Anybody with an OF glove or an ok bat? That's the point right? Margot performed worse than a theoretical AAA/AA call up or waiver wire/minor league signing. There was ample time and opportunity to move on from a guy who couldn't defend or hit, yet they kept trotting him out there. There's zero chance that happens if he isn't a veteran player to whom they've made a financial commitment. I mean ffs Joey Gallo stayed on the roster for the entirety of the 2023 season. The leash is long. 

Of course, and I don't believe for one second that somebody making the league minimum, or with options, would've been allowed to struggle so badly for so long. 

That’s obvious…….they get way more leash if being paid. Capabilities and track record have to come into play though. A guy that hit .280 in AA shouldn’t displace a veteran that may come around ….. i.e. Carlos Santana last year - horrible start - pretty decent season. The lynch mob was calling for his head along with Vazquez & Margot, early in the season & sometimes well into the season.

Gallo, as bad as he was at the plate gave them a guy that could play 1B & OF “well” and nobody else was a lock health wise through the second half of season. Buxton - Correa - Lewis all hurt & out big chunks in ‘23. Not liking a guy or ignoring things he does that help doesn’t rationalize bring guys up “to see what they can do”.

What were Margot’s splits? What did he hit against LH pitching (the role he was supposed to have)…………take away the 0-35 or whatever he was as a PH and he’s not terrible. Hung on to the fantasy that he was going to “break through” as a PH waay too long - agreed!

4th or 5th outfielders going into a season aren’t ever great or seldom average players or they would be starting as a top 3 guy. IMO, Margot rose to the level of everyday due to injuries and serious lack of performance from others - guys sent down that were ahead of him on depth chart April 1.

[KirbyDome89]

On 3/29/2025 at 8:34 AM, JD-TWINS said:

That’s obvious…….they get way more leash if being paid. Capabilities and track record have to come into play though. A guy that hit .280 in AA shouldn’t displace a veteran that may come around ….. i.e. Carlos Santana last year - horrible start - pretty decent season. The lynch mob was calling for his head along with Vazquez & Margot, early in the season & sometimes well into the season.

Gallo, as bad as he was at the plate gave them a guy that could play 1B & OF “well” and nobody else was a lock health wise through the second half of season. Buxton - Correa - Lewis all hurt & out big chunks in ‘23. Not liking a guy or ignoring things he does that help doesn’t rationalize bring guys up “to see what they can do”.

What were Margot’s splits? What did he hit against LH pitching (the role he was supposed to have)…………take away the 0-35 or whatever he was as a PH and he’s not terrible. Hung on to the fantasy that he was going to “break through” as a PH waay too long - agreed!

4th or 5th outfielders going into a season aren’t ever great or seldom average players or they would be starting as a top 3 guy. IMO, Margot rose to the level of everyday due to injuries and serious lack of performance from others - guys sent down that were ahead of him on depth chart April 1.

I don't understand the pushback. You asked why Bader would get more run than he should. We both agree that his contract dictates that he will be used, and given a long leash. He isn't a 4th OF, and Margot wasn't acquired to be one either based on how this team continued to force him into the lineup despite putrid results.