Matt Wallner Leading Off in Spring Training Probably isn’t a Coincidence

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins don’t have a prototypical leadoff man in their lineup right now. But is their massive slugging right fielder actually the answer?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Leadoff hitters: They just don’t make ‘em like they used to. Every team can’t have their own Luis Arraez (though that’s not for lack of trying, given how many teams he’s played for in the last three years). The Twins don’t really have one, either.

Edouard Julien, Arraez’s heir apparent, did a good job in the role in 2023, utilizing a patient approach that produced a .381 on-base percentage and 16 homers in 408 plate appearances, 241 of which came in the leadoff spot (and another 98 as the No. 2 hitter). Unfortunately, that performance didn’t carry over to 2024, and he’s now fighting for a roster spot, let alone the leadoff spot in the order.

Beyond Julien, though, the Twins lack a true leadoff type. These are guys who classically get on base, run well, and see a lot of pitches, working a count to let their teammates get a good look at the pitcher.

Last season, the Twins had four players who got at least 50 plate appearances in the leadoff spot—Julien (148), Willi Castro (227), Manuel Margot (149), and Trevor Larnach. I’m gonna need you to sit down for this next bit. Margot was the most successful player in that spot, primarily against lefties, batting .316.

Castro is probably a more typical leadoff hitter than Larnach, given his speed, but neither has posted great on-base numbers—each were around .330. That’s good, but not great, compared to the league average over the last two years of .316, and it's certainly not where you set the target for the top spot in the order.

I did a little bit of data analysis. It’s not some fancy formula, but I used it a couple of years ago to ask this same question ahead of a 2023 season in which the Twins didn’t have a clear leadoff hitter. Basically, I just ranked Twins projected to make the Opening Day roster (per FanGraphs's Roster Resource) on their ability to get on base, run the bases, and see pitches. At the time, this methodology told me Joey Gallo was the best option, followed by Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton.

So here’s what I did again. I looked at every hitter projected to make the team out of spring training based on Roster Resource (plus Austin Martin, to be safe). I then compiled select stats from A) 2023-2024 and B) Steamer projections for each player. The players were ranked 1-14, based on their OBP; Fangraphs baserunning runs per 550 plate appearances; and average pitches per plate appearance (there aren’t projections for P/PA, so I used career averages for the projections).

It won’t come as a surprise that Christian Vázquez was the worst candidate for leading off, which lends a smidgen of credibility to this exercise. So who did the numbers suggest should lead off?

#4 Willi Castro (3rd Past, t-5th Projection)
Past Rankings: 4th OBP (.334), 2nd BsR (1.6), 5th P/PA (3.92)
2025 Projections: 7th OBP (.317), 4th BsR (-0.3), 8th P/PA (3.80)
Castro spent much of last season as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, and this exercise agrees that he’s not a bad choice. His on-base percentage is buoyed by a significant hit-by-pitch rate, which is sticky year-to-year, but not ideal for his health, especially as a player who relies on his speed. Of note, he’s projected to be the fourth-best player on the bases, but his projection is below-average, which speaks to how slow this team is. Buxton, Martin and Harrison Bader are the only three who project to be above-average.

#3 Trevor Larnach (5th Past, 2nd Projection)
Past Rankings: 6th OBP (.329), 5th BsR (0.1), 2nd P/PA (4.07)
2025 Projections: 6th OBP (.325), 9th BsR (-0.8), 2nd P/PA (4.05)
Larnach saw some time as a leadoff hitter, and he ranked high in this exercise, if for no other reason than he wasn’t bad at any of the three traits. He gets on base fairly well, isn’t a disaster on the bases, and he sees a lot of pitches. He’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, but it could be worse.

#2 Edouard Julien (1st Past, 3rd Projection)
Past Rankings: 2nd OBP (.343), t-5th BsR (0.1), 1st P/PA (4.16)
2025 Projections: 2nd OBP (.347), 14th BsR (-1.2), 1st P/PA (4.17)
I mean, obviously, if Julien can return to what he was doing in 2023, there’s no reason to do this exercise. He’s a decent runner who sees a lot of pitches and gets on base at a high clip. But he was not that guy last season, and it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll be on the Opening Day roster in 2025, which brings us to

#1 Matt Wallner (2nd Past, 1st Projection)
Past Rankings: 1st OBP (.371), t-5th BsR (0.1), 3rd P/PA (4.03)
2025 Projections: 4th OBP (.339), 7th BsR (-0.5), 3rd P/PA (4.02)
So under this exercise, Wallner just barely edges out Julien. He’s got a great on-base percentage to this point in his career, and he’s the proverbial sneaky-fast, though his sprint speed has fallen pretty substantially each year of his career. He also sees a lot of pitches.

Of course, it’s probably valid to ask whether OBP should be weighted equally to the other two, so if we count getting on base double, we have a tie between Julien and Wallner. Honestly, Julien and Wallner stand out so far in this exercise that it’s hard to ignore. They’re the only two Twins, under these parameters, that even slightly resemble a leadoff hitter.

It's also valid to question whether there’s a need for a true leadoff hitter in modern baseball. Like, why do we need to wring our hands over this? Why not just stack the lineup with the best hitters at the top, giving them the most plate appearances over the course of the year.

But Wallner is certainly one of the better hitters on this team. He’s got a three-true-outcomes approach, with 50% of his plate appearances resulting in a walk, strikeout, or home run. He’s a Temu Joey Gallo. But it’s worked for him, as he’s 40% better than average thus far in his career. Alongside Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis, he’s one of the best four hitters on the team, so putting him (and the three of them) at the top of the order is sensible.

Leading Wallner off could result in some leadoff moonshots, which are great for setting the tone of a game, but it could also result in fewer guys being on base for those moonshots. There’s also another question at play: Rocco Baldelli.

Baldelli has become notorious, infamous, whatever adjective you prefer, for his mid-game line switches, removing his lefties for right-handed pinch-hitters, even in the middle innings, to face lefty relievers. Julien, Larnach, and Wallner alike have been victims of that pattern. And if Wallner is indeed one of the Twins' best hitters, batting him leadoff sets him up for losing plate appearances, paradoxically.

Think about it like this: when the Twins face lefty starters, Baldelli stacks the lineups with righties, often batting subpar bats like Kyle Farmer and Jordan Luplow high. Because they’re higher in the lineup, it’s easier to swap them out early, when the opposing lefty exits. Although that practice gets bats like Wallner’s into the game as soon as possible, batting Wallner himself at the top spot can do the opposite against righty starters, if a team goes to a lefty reliever in the fifth or sixth—especially now, as the Twins will have limited options for bench righties, it may be the case that they only have one pinch-hitting option per game, and if Wallner is the first to come up, that might mean losing him.

That may be digging a bit too far into the weeds, but it could be a consideration. All in all, though, there are definitely worse options for leading off than Wallner, and it would get the Twins more plate appearances for one of their top bats. Sure, he may strike out more than you’d prefer, but I don’t think the Twins are unfounded in giving him an opportunity. They’ve clearly been trying it out, with Wallner leading off four of their first six games (all four that he’s started).

View full article

[big dog]

To quote Christopher Walken on SNL:

I Need. More. Wallner.

Enough with the pinch-hitting for him.

[Karbo]

I wouldn't read to much into Wallner leading off in ST. I believe he's batting leadoff now just to make sure he gets his AB's in. While the stats may say he should leadoff, I would rather keep him in the 3-5 slots to have a chance to drive in a few runs.

[Mark G]

If you are convinced that Wallner is one of the best bats the team has, why not slot him into the #3 spot and give your truly best hitter, CC, in the leadoff and give him as many at bats as possible (you are not going to switch him out as opponents change pitchers)?  I know, it goes against the cardinal rule of your best hitter batting 3rd, but Rocko only has two cardinal rules anyway:  rule #1 is, the computer is always right.  Rule #2 is, when the computer is wrong, see rule #1.

I know I am going to hear from smarter folks than me, but I wouldn't rule out CC batting leadoff.  

[Old Crow]

Maybe it comes down to whats more valuable long term a one pitch lead off out to the warning track or a 10 pitch ground ball out to short.

[Fatbat]

Maybe this will slow down the rate at which Baldelli sends in the pinch hitters. Get Wallner at bats against a lefty in the 6th so he can  battle against a righty closer in the 9th. Same can be said for Laurnach. 
I don’t see a way that Julien is on the opening day roster. 
Castro would be a decent choice as any switch hitter would be because it limits the opposing mgr when trying to use his pen.

This will likely all become moot as soon as LK is an everyday MLB’r and holds down the leadoff spot for years to come. 

[peterb18]

The article for was too much statistics. That is one of the reasons baseball is no longer the National Pastime.

[IndianaTwin]

Is Matt Wallner actually leading off this spring? The headline doesn't fit the article. 

[Greggory Masterson]

18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Is Matt Wallner actually leading off this spring? The headline doesn't fit the article. 

Yes, Wallner has led off every game he has played in

[Greggory Masterson]

45 minutes ago, peterb18 said:

The article for was too much statistics. That is one of the reasons baseball is no longer the National Pastime.

Well I appreciate you reading it anyway. How would you approach the question of who the Twins leadoff guy should be?

[CRF]

I hope this isn't what Rocco is thinking of doing with Wallner. We may not have a true prototype leadoff hitter, but having Wallner there is not a good idea. 

[Jeff K]

More Wallner; cowbell...cracks me up.  Seriously,  interesting stats.  I do agree that Wallner is one of the teams best hitters and i have high hopes for him this season.  That said, if he is one of our best hitters (and for power), I wonder if there is a way to figure out the lost opportunity of having him hit more frequently with runners on base which the 3/4 slot would likely accomplish.  Does the lost opportunity outweigh the benefits of leading off?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Is Matt Wallner actually leading off this spring? The headline doesn't fit the article. 

I believe Julien lead off in two games. Wallner the rest.

[NYCTK]

Wallner batting leadoff would be a disservice to him, and get him undue heat from fans. Fans don't want to see a .235 batting average to lead off the game, even if that same average did have a .350 OBP paired with it. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Wait until the season starts.  He will lead off a few games, then show up at the park to find out he’s hitting seventh.  Then he will jump around the order a lot never knowing when he’s going to hit and never finding a groove.  Though it may not  matter as much when the opposing manager sends him to bench in the fifth or six inning by bringing in a lefty.   
 

The purpose of this article may in fact be to demonstrate how poorly the Twins position player roster is constructed.  Wallner is your best lead-off candidate?  Followed by a guy who most TDers don’t even think should be on the team.  Then the next guy up Falvey and Rocco brought in a struggling vet to take his innings.  Fourth is the quintessential utility man.  It’s pitching or bust this year.

[Mark G]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Wallner batting leadoff would be a disservice to him, and get him undue heat from fans. Fans don't want to see a .235 batting average to lead off the game, even if that same average did have a .350 OBP paired with it. 

Agreed.  Even with the OBP we have to remember that, depending on how many of the games Vasquez catches, Wallner would be hitting behind Vasquez (assuming he hits 9th) 40+ percent of the time.  The first at bat of the game would not be the only one where his power would be wasted if he was hitting behind the 8th and 9th guys in the order.  

Then again, Rocco never writes the same line up twice in a row, so are we just spitting into the wind on this subject?  🤭

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Then he will jump around the order a lot never knowing when he’s going to hit and never finding a groove.

If a batter can't find a groove because they're moved around in the order, that player is a head case and that's not on the manager. If a player is so fragile they must be coddled, that player sucks. I've heard this complaint so much, as well as Rocco moving players around the field, and they're just the worst complaints. 

As if Matt Wallner can't hit because he showed up to work and he was placed in the 8th spot in the batting order versus the 6th spot? Likewise with someone like Miranda, who played some games at 1B, as if THAT'S the reason he couldn't hit in the last two months of the season? Give me a break. 

[Fatbat]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Wallner batting leadoff would be a disservice to him, and get him undue heat from fans. Fans don't want to see a .235 batting average to lead off the game, even if that same average did have a .350 OBP paired with it. 

On the flip side, what if putting him in the leadoff role, changes his focus a little bit, raises his BA and his OBP gets closer to .400? 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

On the flip side, what if putting him in the leadoff role, changes his focus a little bit, raises his BA and his OBP gets closer to .400? 

That'd be further disservice to Wallner. I'm not his biggest supporter, but he has a very clear skillset and he does excel at it. Hitting for average should not try to be coached to him. That type of foolishness is why David Ortiz does not look fondly back at his time with the Minnesota Twins. 

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That'd be further disservice to Wallner. I'm not his biggest supporter, but he has a very clear skillset and he does excel at it. Hitting for average should not try to be coached to him. That type of foolishness is why David Ortiz does not look fondly back at his time with the Minnesota Twins. 

I understand that. Lewis didn’t look at moving to 2B in a positive light either.  Kepler refused to play CF also. Do you know if Wallner likes/dislikes the leadoff role? Not every change is bad…. 

[Greggory Masterson]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Wallner batting leadoff would be a disservice to him, and get him undue heat from fans. Fans don't want to see a .235 batting average to lead off the game, even if that same average did have a .350 OBP paired with it. 

For what it's worth, Wallner hit .250 in 2023 and .260 in 2024. Sure, that's not what some fans will demand if their idealized leadoff hitter bats .280+, but there aren't many Twins who will do that. In Max Kepler's 2019 season, he hit leadoff with a .250 average and was largely successful, though there were the same grumbles about hit average. 

[NYCTK]

Just now, Greggory Masterson said:

For what it's worth, Wallner hit .250 in 2023 and .260 in 2024. Sure, that's not what some fans will demand if their idealized leadoff hitter bats .280+, but there aren't many Twins who will do that. In Max Kepler's 2019 season, he hit leadoff with a .250 average and was largely successful, though there were the same grumbles about hit average. 

I don't believe that's where his line will be with a more complete season under the belt. Nothing wrong with a 235/350/480 line, though his bad defense will limit his value. 

ZIPS similarly has him at 241/339/455, so I'm more optimistic on him than the premier projection model. 

[nicksaviking]

I'd like the idea of Wallner leading of if the bottom of the Twins lineup didn't project to be so terrible. Vazquez and Bader are awful at getting on base and France's OBP fell off a cliff last year.

Though they are veterans. I suppose it's possible Baldelli bats them in the top half of the lineup and pushes Lewis, Larnach and Miranda down.

[IndianaTwin]

 

2024 stats and career stats for Kyle Schwarber and Matt Wallner. Guess which is which. (Hint: One has played many more games than the other.)

Schwarber batted leadoff in each of his starts last year. In over half of the Philly games, a guy with a 69 OPS+ batted ninth. Their next most common No. 9 hitter had a 59 OPS+. That didn't seem to stop Schwarber from putting up good RBI numbers.*

In the context of a game/team that doesn't prioritize steals, having Wallner at the top isn't a bad choice at all in my opinion. Said another way, if the most common top third of the order is Wallner-Correa-Buxton, that's a pretty potent start. 

*And as an aside, this also shows that having a crappy guy in your lineup most days (i.e., Vazquez-ish) doesn't preclude a team from winning 95 games.

[PatPfund]

Ideally, Julien figures it out, but otherwise there are worse solutions. I'm definitely someone who rolls their eyes up into their head when Rocco gets played by other managers into taking out his better players with a mid-game pitching change, but...

...I get a sense Baldelli is finally feeling like his job is on the line (and it is even if ownership doesn't change). The radical (only for him) idea of having the team do defensive drills as a team. And talking about concentrating Martin on a position instead of moving him around (ensuring he plays none of them well). He may be slower to remove Wallner on a one-off pitching change as that bat really too good to lose.

[USAFChief]

50 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That'd be further disservice to Wallner. I'm not his biggest supporter, but he has a very clear skillset and he does excel at it. Hitting for average should not try to be coached to him. That type of foolishness is why David Ortiz does not look fondly back at his time with the Minnesota Twins. 

LOL 

Ortiz hit .266 for the Twins.

.290 for the Red Sox.

Looks like they coached him to hit for average. 

 

[USAFChief]

As to the OP. Wallner leading off would be fine by me. As Indiana Twin notes, Schwarber works out just fine. 

 

I also note Schwarber isn't getting PH for in the 5th.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

LOL 

Ortiz hit .266 for the Twins.

.290 for the Red Sox.

Looks like they coached him to hit for average. 

 

Trying to turn a big lefty masher into a slappy all-fields hitter isn't exactly doing anyone any favors. Twins screwed the pooch with David Ortiz. Tom Kelly screwed the pooch with David Ortiz. 

[chpettit19]

For everyone's reference, here's the number of PAs each spot in the order got in MLB as a whole in different situations last year (according to Fangraphs splits leaderboards):

Total PAs-PAs with runners on-PAs with runners in scoring position
1- 22350 -7495- 4493
2- 21833 -9129- 4944
3- 21356 -9638- 5431
4- 20838 -10032- 5842
5- 20303 -8820- 5365
6- 19793 -8648- 4848
7- 19254 -8620- 4898
8- 18660 -8391- 4925
9- 18062 -7870- 4755

Everything divided by 30 to get it in more meaningful per team numbers:
1- 745- 250- 150
2- 728- 304- 165
3- 712- 321- 181
4- 695- 334- 195
5- 677- 294- 179
6- 660- 288- 162
7- 642- 287- 163
8- 622- 280- 164
9- 602- 262- 159

Percentage of PAs with runners on-with runners in scoring position:
1- 34%- 20%
2- 42%- 23%
3- 45%- 25%
4- 48%- 28%
5- 43%- 26%
6- 44%- 24%
7- 45%- 25%
8- 45%- 26%
9- 44%- 26%

Make what you will of these numbers. Just wanted to give some info.

[Riverbrian]

Batting Order? 

Put your hottest hitters at the top or best matchups at the top because they will get more AB's. Put your coldest hitters at the bottom or worse matchups at the bottom of the order because they will get less AB's? 

Space out your left handed hitters and right handers the best you can so the opposing manager doesn't have a clear path to deploy the lefty or righty out of the pen.  

Static lineup orders serve no purpose whatsoever.

If you bat in the 1 spot on Monday and the 7th spot on Tuesday and the 3rd spot on Wednesday. The mental state of the batter will eventually recover from the shock once they start to understand that they have to check the lineup card daily and that they don't get a GUARENTEED batting order position and it is pointless to take anything personally.

If a player can't deal with being moved around in the lineup on a day to day basis. Look for a trade opportunity so he can be replaced by someone less fragile. 

You are only guaranteed to bat lead off once a game. 7 8 and 9 hitters get on base... if they can't they shouldn't be on the team. Correa led the team in OBP last year reaching base 3.9 times out of 10. Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler got on base 3 times out of 10. It's a dial... not a switch. 

Wallner was one of our top On base guys last year. He's a great candidate for lead off.