Matt Wallner Leading Off in Spring Training Probably isn’t a Coincidence

[Greggory Masterson]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But that doesn't explain putting 4 lefties in the top 4 spots. Especially when it pushed Correa to 5. That's making the other manager's job real easy. Just switching Kepler and Correa at least makes the other manager decide which 2 lefties they want to go after. 

Having fewer lefties will certainly make spreading them out easier, but he wasn't exactly trying hard to separate them last year.

Okay, I misunderstood what you were saying--carry on.

[Doc Lenz]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Mookie steals 10-15 bags a year. His speed and base running are secondary to his hitting. Same with everyone else I listed. Some steal a bunch of bags, some steal none. Teams find their best hitters (above average to great hitters preferably) and plant them in the top 4 or 5 lineup spots (or 6 if you're the Dodgers). From there they shuffle them around based on other things like speed, handedness, etc. But the priority is absolutely no longer what it used to be. Lineup construction is about getting your best hitters the most opportunities. 

You're guaranteed to leadoff 1 inning by batting in the 1 spot in the lineup. Teams figured out that weighing that 1 PA over the next 3 or 4 that will come that game was a bad strategy. After the 1st inning, every lineup spot has nearly the exact same percentage of PAs with runners in scoring position (roughly 25%) including the leadoff spot. 4 hole hitters get about 28% of their PAs with RISP, but every other lineup spot is between 24 and 26% (outside of the first inning). Leadoff hitters having to be table setters for the other guys is a myth. Needing speed at the top is a myth. The only difference between lineup spots is the number of opportunities you get in total. So put your best hitters at the top to give them the most chances to be great.

We can agree to disagree diplomatically. I love old time baseball. Hate analytics.