Matt Wallner Leading Off in Spring Training Probably isn’t a Coincidence

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He's not good there,hy would the Twins want a "traditional" leadoff hitter? This "crazy ideology" isn't the Twins', it's baseball's. The 10 players with the most PAs as leadoff hitters last year had an average wRC+ of 130 while hitting leadoff. Marcus Semien was the worst at 100, followed by Arraez at 108. That's a severe down year for both of them. The other 8 go 116, 123, 128, 129, 131, 136, 159, 167. Add in the Dodgers splitting their leadoff spot between Betts (153 wRC+) and Ohtani (188 OPS+) and there is plenty of data to show your desire for Martin or Keirsey to leadoff is the "crazy ideology." 

By OPS, leadoff hitters were the 3rd best hitters on teams last year. 3 hole hitters had an OPS of .777, 2 hole .755, leadoff .739, 4 hole .737, 5 hole .715 and everyone else below .700. Leadoff hitters had the 4th highest slug of any lineup spot. Behind 3 hole, 2 hole, 4 hole. HRs by lineup spot go in the same order. 3rd best wRC+ by lineup spot. OBP goes 3 hole .335, leadoff .327, 2 hole .326. 

If Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey are one of the Twins 4 best hitters this, or any, year either they have blown expectations out of the water to historic levels or the Twins offense is in real trouble. 

Only the weird analytical teams have adapted this ideology, that have hurt them, but some are waking up. Betts & Ohtani are traditional lead-off hitters, they are fast & get on base. If they can slug that's fine, but that can't be the criterion. Wallner isn't a threat on the bases & he strikes out too much. 

Wallner has been groomed & settled to play OF all his professional career right? Why didn't they put Wallner in CF? Playing CF can't be that hard, right? because you expect Martin, who has been moved all around, never been groomed to play the OF, as a rookie to step in on the MLB level, to be better than many veteran CFers? The fact is, it's very difficult to play CF, especially under the circumstances that Martin had to deal with. To focus on all the adjustments he had to do, had to take away his focus on hitting. If Martin was allowed to play 2B all his pro career, where he could settle there. He'd be our best 2Bman, one of our best hitters & a great lead-off hitter. On the other hand, if Wallner, who was better groomed to play the OF, was moved to CF on the fly, I'd guarantee he'd be a much worse CFer than Martin & his hitting would take a huge plunge. The very few chances that Keirsey has been given, he is just starting to show what he can do, but they'll never allow him to excel. I never said that they are our best hitters, the way things stand now. I said they are good candidates to be our best lead-off hitters if the Twins would put them in a position to be so. Quit taking what I say out of context.

A lead-off hitter needs to be a table setter, someone who gets on base, can steal a base, shake up pitchers so they can make mistakes for the following hitters. Wallner can occasionally hit a HR. that's only 1 run leading off, if he does walk he plugs the basepaths & he strikes out too often. Last season Wallner never got on base hitting lead-off & SO 3X. I like Wallner but he's no lead-off hitter. If we want to compete we need to find one.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Only the weird analytical teams have adapted this ideology, that have hurt them, but some are waking up. Betts & Ohtani are traditional lead-off hitters, they are fast & get on base. If they can slug that's fine, but that can't be the criterion. Wallner isn't a threat on the bases & he strikes out too much. 

Wallner has been groomed & settled to play OF all his professional career right? Why didn't they put Wallner in CF? Playing CF can't be that hard, right? because you expect Martin, who has been moved all around, never been groomed to play the OF, as a rookie to step in on the MLB level, to be better than many veteran CFers? The fact is, it's very difficult to play CF, especially under the circumstances that Martin had to deal with. To focus on all the adjustments he had to do, had to take away his focus on hitting. If Martin was allowed to play 2B all his pro career, where he could settle there. He'd be our best 2Bman, one of our best hitters & a great lead-off hitter. On the other hand, if Wallner, who was better groomed to play the OF, was moved to CF on the fly, I'd guarantee he'd be a much worse CFer than Martin & his hitting would take a huge plunge. The very few chances that Keirsey has been given, he is just starting to show what he can do, but they'll never allow him to excel. I never said that they are our best hitters, the way things stand now. I said they are good candidates to be our best lead-off hitters if the Twins would put them in a position to be so. Quit taking what I say out of context.

A lead-off hitter needs to be a table setter, someone who gets on base, can steal a base, shake up pitchers so they can make mistakes for the following hitters. Wallner can occasionally hit a HR. that's only 1 run leading off, if he does walk he plugs the basepaths & he strikes out too often. Last season Wallner never got on base hitting lead-off & SO 3X. I like Wallner but he's no lead-off hitter. If we want to compete we need to find one.

You're not paying attention to the league if you're continuing to push this Martin or Keirsey narrative. I gave you the numbers. Put your best 4 hitters at the top of the order. Everybody does it. How you line them up can be according to who runs if you want.

Martin and Keirsey are never going to be better hitters than Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Larnach, Wallner, or Miranda. That doesn't even include Rodriguez, Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee or a possible Julien bounce back. They're never going to be one of the team's top 4 hitters. Never. So giving them the most PAs on the team is simply a bad idea. 

Leadoff guys used to need to be table setters who ran. And 2 hole hitters used to be Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla slap hitters who moved runners. Then the league realized they were giving their best hitters far fewer opportunities to impact the game and they changed.

You're behind the times and advocating for the Twins to actively hurt their offense. Martin and Keirsey are 9 hole type hitters setting the table for the lineup to roll over and get back to their best hitters. Weighing the first inning so aggressively to put your table setter in the 1 hole is bad strategy. And the entire league agrees. Give your best hitters the most chances. Line them up however you want in the top 4 or 5 spots, but give them as many PAs as possible. Martin and Keirsey haven't been held back from being top 4 hitters, they just aren't as good as the other players. And I like them. Want them on the team over the $4 to $11 million vets they bring in. But they aren't top 4 hitters. No matter what position they play. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Only the weird analytical teams have adapted this ideology, that have hurt them, but some are waking up. Betts & Ohtani are traditional lead-off hitters, they are fast & get on base. If they can slug that's fine, but that can't be the criterion. Wallner isn't a threat on the bases & he strikes out too much. 

Wallner has been groomed & settled to play OF all his professional career right? Why didn't they put Wallner in CF? Playing CF can't be that hard, right? because you expect Martin, who has been moved all around, never been groomed to play the OF, as a rookie to step in on the MLB level, to be better than many veteran CFers? The fact is, it's very difficult to play CF, especially under the circumstances that Martin had to deal with. To focus on all the adjustments he had to do, had to take away his focus on hitting. If Martin was allowed to play 2B all his pro career, where he could settle there. He'd be our best 2Bman, one of our best hitters & a great lead-off hitter. On the other hand, if Wallner, who was better groomed to play the OF, was moved to CF on the fly, I'd guarantee he'd be a much worse CFer than Martin & his hitting would take a huge plunge. The very few chances that Keirsey has been given, he is just starting to show what he can do, but they'll never allow him to excel. I never said that they are our best hitters, the way things stand now. I said they are good candidates to be our best lead-off hitters if the Twins would put them in a position to be so. Quit taking what I say out of context.

A lead-off hitter needs to be a table setter, someone who gets on base, can steal a base, shake up pitchers so they can make mistakes for the following hitters. Wallner can occasionally hit a HR. that's only 1 run leading off, if he does walk he plugs the basepaths & he strikes out too often. Last season Wallner never got on base hitting lead-off & SO 3X. I like Wallner but he's no lead-off hitter. If we want to compete we need to find one.

Of Twins hitters with at least 200 PAs last year Martin was 9th out of 15 in BB%. That isn't because he was forced to play a position he's played since college. It's because he isn't a threat with the bat so no major league pitcher fears him. You're looking at the wrong underlying condition. Because you don't want slug to matter. Well, it does. A lot. If a pitcher's biggest fear about throwing you a strike is that you may hit a single he's going to throw you a lot of strikes. 

Martin's walk rate was 7.8%. Steven Kwan's (the guy you should hope Martin can become) was 9.8%. Arraez was 3.1%. Steven Kwan was 10th in all of baseball in chase rate. Meaning only 9 hitters in the entire league chased pitches less than him. He was 73rd in BB%. Simply not chasing pitches in the bigs doesn't earn you crazy amounts of walks if you're not a power threat with the bat. And Kwan actually did what the Twins tried to teach Martin and hit for pull power early in counts last year. Pitchers are smarter. The league is smarter. They will come right after you in the zone if you can't make them pay for it. Your dream of Austin Martin being a .400 OBP guy is simply not realistic. And it's not because he played CF. It's because he can't slug. As much as you hate to hear it.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

If he is, the Twins are in big trouble

Wallner was 11th in MLB for OBP against RHP last year.  One percentage point behind Correa.  He was 7th in the league in terms of wRC+.  How would it be big trouble for the Twins if he hit lead-off against RHP?

            Fangraphs Leaders against RHP

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Only the weird analytical teams have adapted this ideology, that have hurt them, but some are waking up. Betts & Ohtani are traditional lead-off hitters, they are fast & get on base. If they can slug that's fine, but that can't be the criterion. Wallner isn't a threat on the bases & he strikes out too much. 

Wallner has been groomed & settled to play OF all his professional career right? Why didn't they put Wallner in CF? Playing CF can't be that hard, right? because you expect Martin, who has been moved all around, never been groomed to play the OF, as a rookie to step in on the MLB level, to be better than many veteran CFers? The fact is, it's very difficult to play CF, especially under the circumstances that Martin had to deal with. To focus on all the adjustments he had to do, had to take away his focus on hitting. If Martin was allowed to play 2B all his pro career, where he could settle there. He'd be our best 2Bman, one of our best hitters & a great lead-off hitter. On the other hand, if Wallner, who was better groomed to play the OF, was moved to CF on the fly, I'd guarantee he'd be a much worse CFer than Martin & his hitting would take a huge plunge. The very few chances that Keirsey has been given, he is just starting to show what he can do, but they'll never allow him to excel. I never said that they are our best hitters, the way things stand now. I said they are good candidates to be our best lead-off hitters if the Twins would put them in a position to be so. Quit taking what I say out of context.

A lead-off hitter needs to be a table setter, someone who gets on base, can steal a base, shake up pitchers so they can make mistakes for the following hitters. Wallner can occasionally hit a HR. that's only 1 run leading off, if he does walk he plugs the basepaths & he strikes out too often. Last season Wallner never got on base hitting lead-off & SO 3X. I like Wallner but he's no lead-off hitter. If we want to compete we need to find one.

Wallner's OBP is 80 pts higher than Martin against RHP.  Martin's baserunning would not nearly make up for that difference even if they both slugged the same.  Of course, Wallner is massively more productive.  Wallner's wRC+ against RHP is 70% higher than Martin.  I can't imagine there is a MLB team that leads off Martin over Wallner or that would consider him a lead-off hitter at all.  He is below average.  It just makes absolutely no sense.  

[Doctor Gast]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're not paying attention to the league if you're continuing to push this Martin or Keirsey narrative. I gave you the numbers. Put your best 4 hitters at the top of the order. Everybody does it. How you line them up can be according to who runs if you want.

Martin and Keirsey are never going to be better hitters than Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Larnach, Wallner, or Miranda. That doesn't even include Rodriguez, Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee or a possible Julien bounce back. They're never going to be one of the team's top 4 hitters. Never. So giving them the most PAs on the team is simply a bad idea. 

Leadoff guys used to need to be table setters who ran. And 2 hole hitters used to be Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla slap hitters who moved runners. Then the league realized they were giving their best hitters for fewer opportunities to impact the game and they changed.

You're behind the times and advocating for the Twins to actively hurt their offense. Martin and Keirsey are 9 hole type hitters setting the table for the lineup to roll over and get back to their best hitters. Weighing the first inning so aggressively to put your table setter in the 1 hole is bad strategy. And the entire league agrees. Give your best hitters the most chances. Line them up however you want in the top 4 or 5 spots, but give them as many PAs as possible. Martin and Keirsey haven't been held back from being top 4 hitters, they just aren't as good as the other players. And I like them. Want them on the team over the $4 to $11 million vets they bring in. But they aren't top 4 hitters. No matter what position they play. 

This type of thinking started with NYY, the "all or nothing" hitting approach. Tweak the heck out of every hitter, draft slow sluggers, to heck with defense, SOs, fundamentals & every sound baseball principle. Baseball is discovering that this philosophy doesn't work. Twins have woken up to transition away from this "all or nothing" approach. It has taken a long time, maybe another poor season they'll wake up & see that it's all a bunch of bunk. It's easy to brand someone as a bad hitter just because they aren't the type of sluggers that you like & totally ignore logical reasoning that you can't refute by continuing to repeat the same philosophy. & again I repeat I never said that Martin & Keirsey are the top hitters on the MLB club the way things sit right now, they aren't given the chance. You can deny it but it's the truth.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

This type of thinking started with NYY, the "all or nothing" hitting approach. Tweak the heck out of every hitter, draft slow sluggers, to heck with defense, SOs, fundamentals & every sound baseball principle. Baseball is discovering that this philosophy doesn't work. Twins have woken up to transition away from this "all or nothing" approach. It has taken a long time, maybe another poor season they'll wake up & see that it's all a bunch of bunk. It's easy to brand someone as a bad hitter just because they aren't the type of sluggers that you like & totally ignore logical reasoning that you can't refute by continuing to repeat the same philosophy. & again I repeat I never said that Martin & Keirsey are the top hitters on the MLB club the way things sit right now, they aren't given the chance. You can deny it but it's the truth.

No, it didn't. It started in Tampa. And no team has ever said "to heck with defense." And "slow sluggers" have been drafted for the entire history of baseball. Some guy called Babe Ruth was pretty highly thought of back in the day and wasn't exactly setting the world on fire with his speed. Ted Williams stole 24 bases in his career, not exactly speed racer over there. David Ortiz. Kent Hrbek. Harmon Killebrew. And every hitter has always been tweaked. What do you think they do in the minors? That's literally what development is all about. It's the entire point of the minor leagues. 

Baseball isn't discovering that at all. Slugging is still king. Speed and defense have always been part of the equation, but slugging is still king. It's still what teams pay for. Yes, bunting and hit and runs have gone way down, but that's because the league realized they were bad strategies. 

I never said they were bad hitters, they just aren't as good as you're suggesting they are and they aren't good enough to hit at the top of a lineup for a team hoping to contend. The league hasn't "adjusted to the all or nothing approach." Your constant claims that the league can now get every "all or nothing" hitter out because they solved that mystery is so far off base. Each hitter has to be attacked in their own unique way. Each of their swings are different. Each of their ability to cover certain parts of the plate are different. You blindly assumed Julien was a dead pull hitter because he has an "all or nothing approach" and you are completely and utterly wrong. As I proved to you by showing you actual spray charts and proof.

I can refute your "logical reasoning." I just did. Austin Martin has been playing CF for way longer than just last year. You don't like hearing that, but that's the truth. He's been a utility player since he was starring in college. Your "logical reasoning" is ignoring the actual realities of Austin Martin's career. I like Steven Kwan. I like Arraez. I like Yandy Diaz who isn't fast and doesn't slug a crazy high number. They're great hitters. You just want to put anyone who points out slugging into a bucket of "all you care about is slugging" and act like we don't look at anything else. It's nonsense. You're not the only one who "looks at underlying conditions" like that's some sort of crazy idea. Most of us do. We just don't agree with your assessments.

I never said you said they were the top hitters on the club, I said that's what MLB teams use at the top of their order now and that's why Martin and Keirsey don't belong there. You never use stats or proof of anything because it rarely ever backs up your statements. I've given you the stats for hitters at the top of the lineup for the league. You're ignoring that and telling me "only the crazy analytical teams" follow that plan. Well, first off, EVERY team is a "crazy analytical team." They all follow this stuff. Every. Single. One. And, second, I showed you the data that proves you're wrong. Teams take their best hitters and put them at the top of the order. All of them. It's why the top 5 spots in the order for MLB have OPS's over .700 while the rest don't. It's why the most used leadoff hitters in baseball have wRC+ that average 130. It's why leadoff hitters are the 4th highest slugging lineup spot in baseball. This is how the league does it. Not just the Twins. You are wrong about it just being certain teams following the Yankees (especially because the Yankees didn't start it!). Suggesting the Twins put somebody who isn't one of the top hitters in the leadoff spot is going against baseball as a whole, not just the Twins. Provide actual stats and proof to disprove my actual stats and proof or just admit you're asking the Twins to do something nobody else in the league is doing. I'll save you the work on Kwan, he was the 2nd best hitter on the Guardians last year. Even those scrappy little guys put their best hitters at the top of their lineup. Luis Arraez is probably your best argument as he had a down year so he was the 5th best hitter amongst the Padres regulars. But he's typically a 130 wRC+ hitter. Dang, exactly the same as the best leadoff hitters in baseball.

I'm not denying Keirsey hasn't been given a chance, but Martin got 93 games with the Twins last year. You also act like these 2 have torn the minors apart. They haven't. They've been above average, but neither of them were putting up Wallner, Emma, Jenkins, Eeles, Keaschall type performances. That's the truth.

[DJL44]

I like having Correa bat behind Wallner. Go ahead and put in your crappy lefthanded reliever to face Wallner. The rules say he also has to face Correa and that will not end well for the opponent. If he gets past Correa, he'll get to face Buxton. I like Lewis batting behind Larnach for the same reason.

Top 5 should be: Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, Lewis

[Doctor Gast]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Wallner's OBP is 80 pts higher than Martin against RHP.  Martin's baserunning would not nearly make up for that difference even if they both slugged the same.  Of course, Wallner is massively more productive.  Wallner's wRC+ against RHP is 70% higher than Martin.  I can't imagine there is a MLB team that leads off Martin over Wallner or that would consider him a lead-off hitter at all.  He is below average.  It just makes absolutely no sense.  

You are comparing apples to oranges, I compared apples to apples. Putting them on the same playing field. If you actually read my quote carefully, you could see that. As I've been saying, I'm not looking at the situation that both are in right now, but their potential. Because of their small sample size (hitting lead-off- Wallner (8 PAs) .00 OBP & SO 3Xs, Martin (0 PAs)) & opportunity, we need to look at their MiLB records. To reiterate, a lead-off hitter has to get on base,  Wallner (OBP .379 with no interference), Martin (OBP .397 tried to manipulate his swing) & wreak havoc on the bases, Wallner with 15 SBs in 5 seasons & Martin with 76 in 4 seasons, Comparing apples to apples Martin is a much better lead-off hitter. Plus Martin's splits aren't bad.

They is no doubt that (LH) Wallner has more power than (RH) Martin especially against LHP, I'm not advocating Martin over Wallner to hit clean up. To reiterate, Wallner has been groomed to be a cOFer & his style of hitting for his entire pro career, so all he needs to concentrate on is his hitting. On the other hand, Martin has been moved all around, having his swing manipulated & his rookie season he needed to learn a very difficult CF which he hasn't been groomed for on the fly. There is no comparison the conditions that both of these guys went through. IF Wallner had gone through the same things that Martin had, I guarantee that his production would be much lower. But Baldelli has no desire for a traditional lead-off hitter that's why we don't have one. If he did, Martin would have been treated differently & would be a good candidate to be groomed as one.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No, it didn't. It started in Tampa. And no team has ever said "to heck with defense." And "slow sluggers" have been drafted for the entire history of baseball. Some guy called Babe Ruth was pretty highly thought of back in the day and wasn't exactly setting the world on fire with his speed. Ted Williams stole 24 bases in his career, not exactly speed racer over there. David Ortiz. Kent Hrbek. Harmon Killebrew. And every hitter has always been tweaked. What do you think they do in the minors? That's literally what development is all about. It's the entire point of the minor leagues. 

Baseball isn't discovering that at all. Slugging is still king. Speed and defense have always been part of the equation, but slugging is still king. It's still what teams pay for. Yes, bunting and hit and runs have gone way down, but that's because the league realized they were bad strategies. 

I never said they were bad hitters, they just aren't as good as you're suggesting they are and they aren't good enough to hit at the top of a lineup for a team hoping to contend. The league hasn't "adjusted to the all or nothing approach." Your constant claims that the league can now get every "all or nothing" hitter out because they solved that mystery is so far off base. Each hitter has to be attacked in their own unique way. Each of their swings are different. Each of their ability to cover certain parts of the plate are different. You blindly assumed Julien was a dead pull hitter because he has an "all or nothing approach" and you are completely and utterly wrong. As I proved to you by showing you actual spray charts and proof.

I can refute your "logical reasoning." I just did. Austin Martin has been playing CF for way longer than just last year. You don't like hearing that, but that's the truth. He's been a utility player since he was starring in college. Your "logical reasoning" is ignoring the actual realities of Austin Martin's career. I like Steven Kwan. I like Arraez. I like Yandy Diaz who isn't fast and doesn't slug a crazy high number. They're great hitters. You just want to put anyone who points out slugging into a bucket of "all you care about is slugging" and act like we don't look at anything else. It's nonsense. You're not the only one who "looks at underlying conditions" like that's some sort of crazy idea. Most of us do. We just don't agree with your assessments.

I never said you said they were the top hitters on the club, I said that's what MLB teams use at the top of their order now and that's why Martin and Keirsey don't belong there. You never use stats or proof of anything because it rarely ever backs up your statements. I've given you the stats for hitters at the top of the lineup for the league. You're ignoring that and telling me "only the crazy analytical teams" follow that plan. Well, first off, EVERY team is a "crazy analytical team." They all follow this stuff. Every. Single. One. And, second, I showed you the data that proves you're wrong. Teams take their best hitters and put them at the top of the order. All of them. It's why the top 5 spots in the order for MLB have OPS's over .700 while the rest don't. It's why the most used leadoff hitters in baseball have wRC+ that average 130. It's why leadoff hitters are the 4th highest slugging lineup spot in baseball. This is how the league does it. Not just the Twins. You are wrong about it just being certain teams following the Yankees (especially because the Yankees didn't start it!). Suggesting the Twins put somebody who isn't one of the top hitters in the leadoff spot is going against baseball as a whole, not just the Twins. Provide actual stats and proof to disprove my actual stats and proof or just admit you're asking the Twins to do something nobody else in the league is doing. I'll save you the work on Kwan, he was the 2nd best hitter on the Guardians last year. Even those scrappy little guys put their best hitters at the top of their lineup. Luis Arraez is probably your best argument as he had a down year so he was the 5th best hitter amongst the Padres regulars. But he's typically a 130 wRC+ hitter. Dang, exactly the same as the best leadoff hitters in baseball.

I'm not denying Keirsey hasn't been given a chance, but Martin got 93 games with the Twins last year. You also act like these 2 have torn the minors apart. They haven't. They've been above average, but neither of them were putting up Wallner, Emma, Jenkins, Eeles, Keaschall type performances. That's the truth.

Your goperty goop does explain anything. There are analytical teams that I'm all in favor of & there are others that go way overboard with weird analytics that have no sense, that's what I'm against. If you actually read my post you'd remember that I said that Arraez wasn't an ideal lead-off hitter because he's not fast. It doesn't pay to argue with you about Martin because you refuse to understand & I get tired of keeping explaining to you. 

You can keep believing that slow sluggers are better lead-off hitters & I'll keep believing that those who get on base at high clip, raise havoc on the bases & don't clog the bases are better lead-off hitters (that's what I have debated on) & leave it at that.

P.S. there's a big difference between tweaking (which I'm not talking about) & tweaking the heck out of a swing like the Yanks did.

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You can keep believing that slow sluggers are better lead-off hitters & I'll keep believing that those who get on base at high clip, raise havoc on the bases & don't clog the bases are better lead-off hitters (that's what I have debated on) & leave it at that.

Player 2024 OBP Sprint Speed

Wallner .372 27.5 ft/s (55th percentile)

Martin .318 28.3 ft/s (75th %)

Wallner gets on base at a much higher clip and he doesn't clog the bases. Martin can bat 9th when he plays. You don't give up 50 points of OBP for the ability to get to the next base 0.1 seconds faster.

[NYCTK]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

If Martin was allowed to play 2B all his pro career, where he could settle there. He'd be our best 2Bman, one of our best hitters & a great lead-off hitter.

LOL. Just fully baseless conjecture. And you constantly ignore the fact that Martin as played many, many innings in the OF. He wasn't just thrown into the OF despite how many times you suggest this is the case. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Your goperty goop does explain anything. There are analytical teams that I'm all in favor of & there are others that go way overboard with weird analytics that have no sense, that's what I'm against. If you actually read my post you'd remember that I said that Arraez wasn't an ideal lead-off hitter because he's not fast. It doesn't pay to argue with you about Martin because you refuse to understand & I get tired of keeping explaining to you. 

You can keep believing that slow sluggers are better lead-off hitters & I'll keep believing that those who get on base at high clip, raise havoc on the bases & don't clog the bases are better lead-off hitters (that's what I have debated on) & leave it at that.

P.S. there's a big difference between tweaking (which I'm not talking about) & tweaking the heck out of a swing like the Yanks did.

I understand your argument. I understand what we're debating about. I understand that we have difference of opinion on what makes a good leadoff hitter. What you're failing to understand is that all of baseball is telling you you're wrong. Unless you're arguing that Martin or Keirsey will be a top 4 or 5 hitter on the Twins team, you are going against all 30 MLB teams. Not just the Twins or teams that "go way overboard with weird analytics." All 30. 100% of major league baseball teams disagree with you.

As for you explaining to me that Martin has great potential if the Twins just didn't manage him like every team has managed him since he was 19 years old, I understand that, too. I disagree. He's been a utility player since he was 19. He's going to turn 26 before this season starts. That's 7 years of utility work. Your "underlying condition" talk isn't based on reality. It's creating an excuse because you expected him to be better. I expected him to be better coming out of college, too. Just didn't happen. I provided you actual data and proof about why he isn't the hitter you want him to be. And it's because he can't hit the ball hard enough to scare pitchers. Major league pitchers don't walk hitters who's biggest threat is hitting a single. His struggles weren't because he played a position he's been playing for 7 years, it's because he can't impact the ball well enough to worry an MLB pitcher. I understand what you're trying to explain to me. I'm telling you you're wrong. And I'm bringing more than "I look at underlying conditions" as an explanation. I provided real world numbers and comparisons. Nick Madrigal is another one. But I was trying to be nice and use borderline or actual MLB stars to prove to you that even they don't walk at the rates you're claiming Martin could if he just played 2B because pitchers don't fear them.

P.S. explain what the Yanks (or the Twins with Martin or any other team) did/does to "tweak the heck out of a swing." Explain the mechanics they're changing. Explain the actual coaching teams give. What adjustments did the Twins make to Martin's swing that you claim ruined him? Elbow placement? Stride? Hand placement? Swing path? What? Explain it. Don't just make broad brush stroke claims about "all or nothing approaches" or teams "tweaking the heck out of a swing." Explain it. Prove your point with actual baseball information. How do the Yanks "tweak the heck out of a swing?"

[Doctor Gast]

34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

P.S. explain what the Yanks (or the Twins with Martin or any other team) did/does to "tweak the heck out of a swing." Explain the mechanics they're changing. Explain the actual coaching teams give. What adjustments did the Twins make to Martin's swing that you claim ruined him? Elbow placement? Stride? Hand placement? Swing path? What? Explain it. Don't just make broad brush stroke claims about "all or nothing approaches" or teams "tweaking the heck out of a swing." Explain it. Prove your point with actual baseball information. How do the Yanks "tweak the heck out of a swing?"

I get my info from NYY podcasters, explaining why all those promising bats that went sour.

I never said the Twins ruined Martin's swing. Maybe set him back but not ruined.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I get my info from NYY podcasters, explaining why all those promising bats that went sour.

I never said the Twins ruined Martin's swing. Maybe set him back but not ruined.

Which promising bats? What mechanical changes do those podcasters claim they made?

Yankees don't seem to have ruined that Judge fella. Gleyber Torres has a career OPS+ of 112 with only 1 season below 100. Volpe has been a little disappointing, I'll give you/them him. Austin Wells hasn't gone sour as he's one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. Jasson Dominguez still has plenty of hype around him as he gets a fulltime MLB gig this year. Trey Sweeney is set to be a key part of the Tigers lineup now. Spencer Jones is expected to debut this year. Who are "all those promising bats that went sour" for the Yankees? The glove first SS Peraza? Have they given up on Volpe already at the age of 23? The Yankees haven't hit on 100% of their prospects so they're "tweaking the heck out of" swings and "souring" hitters despite turning out numerous everyday MLB position players over the last handful of years? Or are we going all the way back to 2018 and bringing Gary Sanchez into this?

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You're not paying attention to the league if you're continuing to push this Martin or Keirsey narrative. I gave you the numbers. Put your best 4 hitters at the top of the order. Everybody does it. How you line them up can be according to who runs if you want.

Martin and Keirsey are never going to be better hitters than Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Larnach, Wallner, or Miranda. That doesn't even include Rodriguez, Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee or a possible Julien bounce back. They're never going to be one of the team's top 4 hitters. Never. So giving them the most PAs on the team is simply a bad idea. 

Leadoff guys used to need to be table setters who ran. And 2 hole hitters used to be Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla slap hitters who moved runners. Then the league realized they were giving their best hitters far fewer opportunities to impact the game and they changed.

You're behind the times and advocating for the Twins to actively hurt their offense. Martin and Keirsey are 9 hole type hitters setting the table for the lineup to roll over and get back to their best hitters. Weighing the first inning so aggressively to put your table setter in the 1 hole is bad strategy. And the entire league agrees. Give your best hitters the most chances. Line them up however you want in the top 4 or 5 spots, but give them as many PAs as possible. Martin and Keirsey haven't been held back from being top 4 hitters, they just aren't as good as the other players. And I like them. Want them on the team over the $4 to $11 million vets they bring in. But they aren't top 4 hitters. No matter what position they play. 

Remembering back to little league and all the way thru college ball, we had lineups with the weakest hitters in the 8/9 spots.  I personally was in those spots and preferred the 9 hole. I frequently lead the team in obp by working walks and hbp. I also scored a lot of runs. Martin/Lee/Kiersey could make a career out of the 9 hole if they clearly understood how important that role is. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Remembering back to little league and all the way thru college ball, we had lineups with the weakest hitters in the 8/9 spots.  I personally was in those spots and preferred the 9 hole. I frequently lead the team in obp by working walks and hbp. I also scored a lot of runs. Martin/Lee/Kiersey could make a career out of the 9 hole if they clearly understood how important that role is. 

If you're not one of the stars, it's a great place to be because whenever you're on you get the big boys coming up for the fireworks.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I understand your argument. I understand what we're debating about. I understand that we have difference of opinion on what makes a good leadoff hitter. What you're failing to understand is that all of baseball is telling you you're wrong. Unless you're arguing that Martin or Keirsey will be a top 4 or 5 hitter on the Twins team, you are going against all 30 MLB teams. Not just the Twins or teams that "go way overboard with weird analytics." All 30. 100% of major league baseball teams disagree with you.

As for you explaining to me that Martin has great potential if the Twins just didn't manage him like every team has managed him since he was 19 years old, I understand that, too. I disagree. He's been a utility player since he was 19. He's going to turn 26 before this season starts. That's 7 years of utility work. Your "underlying condition" talk isn't based on reality. It's creating an excuse because you expected him to be better. I expected him to be better coming out of college, too. Just didn't happen. I provided you actual data and proof about why he isn't the hitter you want him to be. And it's because he can't hit the ball hard enough to scare pitchers. Major league pitchers don't walk hitters who's biggest threat is hitting a single. His struggles weren't because he played a position he's been playing for 7 years, it's because he can't impact the ball well enough to worry an MLB pitcher. I understand what you're trying to explain to me. I'm telling you you're wrong. And I'm bringing more than "I look at underlying conditions" as an explanation. I provided real world numbers and comparisons. Nick Madrigal is another one. But I was trying to be nice and use borderline or actual MLB stars to prove to you that even they don't walk at the rates you're claiming Martin could if he just played 2B because pitchers don't fear them.

P.S. explain what the Yanks (or the Twins with Martin or any other team) did/does to "tweak the heck out of a swing." Explain the mechanics they're changing. Explain the actual coaching teams give. What adjustments did the Twins make to Martin's swing that you claim ruined him? Elbow placement? Stride? Hand placement? Swing path? What? Explain it. Don't just make broad brush stroke claims about "all or nothing approaches" or teams "tweaking the heck out of a swing." Explain it. Prove your point with actual baseball information. How do the Yanks "tweak the heck out of a swing?"

Good luck with that. Those NYY Podcasters are more knowledgeable than Cashman or Boone so they're observations are gold. 

[D.C Twins]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Wallner was 11th in MLB for OBP against RHP last year.  One percentage point behind Correa.  He was 7th in the league in terms of wRC+.  How would it be big trouble for the Twins if he hit lead-off against RHP?

            Fangraphs Leaders against RHP

If the plan is to platoon him then sure if his is clearly matching 2024 production.... but I would prefer your best hitter agnostic of pitching side as lead off.  

That may change throughout the season. 

Again...get your stars the most ABs possible

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

If the plan is to platoon him then sure if his is clearly matching 2024 production.... but I would prefer your best hitter agnostic of pitching side as lead off.  

That may change throughout the season. 

Again...get your stars the most ABs possible

Who knows.  Wallner has less than 600 career PAs.  Maybe the league adjusts.  Maybe he gets even better.  It certainly would not be unusual for a hitter to improve as they surpass 1,000 or 1,500 ABs.   

Yes, it would be great to have a superstar that is the best hitter against LHP and RHP but that's pretty rare.  I guess Correa has the potential to be that guy but the question posed in this thread is basically if Wallner is a suitable lead-off hitter and his performance to date suggest he could be good in that role.   Rodriguez was an OB machine last year and hits both handed pitching.  Maybe he could factor in fairly soon.

[Doc Lenz]

On 2/28/2025 at 5:24 PM, chpettit19 said:

What defines a "legitimate lead off hitter?" That's kind of the point of this article. Do you mean "classic leadoff hitter?" Because that the Twins lack, but they don't lack for "legitimate lead off hitters." The game has changed. Kyle Schwarber, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Gunnar Henderson, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Francisco Lindor. These are the leadoff hitters of today. Just flat out good hitters. The Twins have some flat out good hitters. Like Matt Wallner.

One that gets on base, causes havoc on the paths, with new rules can steal a base, go from first to third on a single. Mookie certainly does those things.

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

One that gets on base, causes havoc on the paths, with new rules can steal a base, go from first to third on a single. Mookie certainly does those things.

Mookie steals 10-15 bags a year. His speed and base running are secondary to his hitting. Same with everyone else I listed. Some steal a bunch of bags, some steal none. Teams find their best hitters (above average to great hitters preferably) and plant them in the top 4 or 5 lineup spots (or 6 if you're the Dodgers). From there they shuffle them around based on other things like speed, handedness, etc. But the priority is absolutely no longer what it used to be. Lineup construction is about getting your best hitters the most opportunities. 

You're guaranteed to leadoff 1 inning by batting in the 1 spot in the lineup. Teams figured out that weighing that 1 PA over the next 3 or 4 that will come that game was a bad strategy. After the 1st inning, every lineup spot has nearly the exact same percentage of PAs with runners in scoring position (roughly 25%) including the leadoff spot. 4 hole hitters get about 28% of their PAs with RISP, but every other lineup spot is between 24 and 26% (outside of the first inning). Leadoff hitters having to be table setters for the other guys is a myth. Needing speed at the top is a myth. The only difference between lineup spots is the number of opportunities you get in total. So put your best hitters at the top to give them the most chances to be great.

[chpettit19]

Aaron Gleeman has an article on The Athletic today about Wallner leading off. Interesting quote from Rocco in it:

"Breaking up the lefties, maybe it asks the opposing team to answer a question in a different way than the way we posed it before.”

The question Rocco used to pose was "what inning do you want me to take all my lefties out of the lineup for you." He stacked lefties. Are we about to see Rocco split his lefties like he has in spring so opposing managers not only have to pick what inning they want Rocco to take lefties out in but also which lefty and which righties their lefties will have to face to do it?! What a crazy idea!

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Aaron Gleeman has an article on The Athletic today about Wallner leading off. Interesting quote from Rocco in it:

"Breaking up the lefties, maybe it asks the opposing team to answer a question in a different way than the way we posed it before.”

The question Rocco used to pose was "what inning do you want me to take all my lefties out of the lineup for you." He stacked lefties. Are we about to see Rocco split his lefties like he has in spring so opposing managers not only have to pick what inning they want Rocco to take lefties out in but also which lefty and which righties their lefties will have to face to do it?! What a crazy idea!

I like that he is learning and adjusting. I don't like that it takes him an offseason to learn and adjust.

[USAFChief]

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I like that he is learning and adjusting. I don't like that it takes him an offseason to learn and adjust.

Learning and adjusting? I guess, but this simple concept isn't something a MLB manager should have to learn.  This is simple stuff. Been a simple, easily understood lineup concept since maybe 3 days after Abner invented baseball.

 

Our manager just noticed??

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I like that he is learning and adjusting. I don't like that it takes him an offseason to learn and adjust.

I’m not sure that’s wholly charitable. The past few years, there have been 3 or 4 lefties in the lineup each game. Like last year, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler, and Julien could all be in the batting order at the beginning of the season. With that alignment, they’d go more every-other. Then the bench would often have 3 lefties.

Now, they only have 3 true lefties, and that’s if Julien makes the team. It’s easier to spread them out so there are no spots where the other manager can put in a lefty reliever against a LRL sequence. I’m not sure that’s by design, but it changes the calculus nonetheless.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 3/1/2025 at 7:12 AM, DJL44 said:

I like having Correa bat behind Wallner. Go ahead and put in your crappy lefthanded reliever to face Wallner. The rules say he also has to face Correa and that will not end well for the opponent. If he gets past Correa, he'll get to face Buxton. I like Lewis batting behind Larnach for the same reason.

Top 5 should be: Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, Lewis

While it seems weird to lead off Wallner to us guys who have been watching baseball since the 60s, it actually does make a lot of sense to have the top5 spots be occupied by your top 5 hitters. Identifying the top 5 hitters on this year's Twins team is pretty easy - Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Larnach. Miranda and Jeffers are 6 and 7.  I would go Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers myself, but I could see going Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, and Lewis for the reasons you mentioned. Will be weird to see but probably the best approach.  

The differences in plate appearance by batting order number is pretty interesting. Hitting first gives you 13 more PAs per year than 2nd on average, 28 more than third, etc., about 13-15 PAs per spot in the lineup. Each spot in the lineup is worth 13-15 PAs per season than the one directly behind and those amounts accumulate. Better to give those PAs to our better hitters, 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I’m not sure that’s wholly charitable. The past few years, there have been 3 or 4 lefties in the lineup each game. Like last year, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler, and Julien could all be in the batting order at the beginning of the season. With that alignment, they’d go more every-other. Then the bench would often have 3 lefties.

Now, they only have 3 true lefties, and that’s if Julien makes the team. It’s easier to spread them out so there are no spots where the other manager can put in a lefty reliever against a LRL sequence. I’m not sure that’s by design, but it changes the calculus nonetheless.

How often were all 5 of those lefties on the roster at the same time? Wallner wasn't on the roster from 4/15 to 7/7. AK's career came to a horribly sad end on 6/11. Julien was gone from 6/3 through 7/20 then again from 7/24 to 8/16. Max missed essentially all of September. Larnach wasn't on the team until 4/16.

So, from 6/11 until 7/7 3 of them were on the IL or in St Paul leaving just 2 on the roster. Then while Julien remained in AAA there were only 3 on the roster until 8/16. Then again during September when Kepler's Twins career came to an unceremonious end they were back to just 3. That's a pretty significant amount of time throughout the year when there were only 2 or 3 lefties on the roster last year. 

To start the year Rocco was going Eddie- AK at the top of the order followed by Buxton and then Kepler. 3 of the 4 lefties in the top 4 in the order with only Wallner separated. 

[Greggory Masterson]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How often were all 5 of those lefties on the roster at the same time? Wallner wasn't on the roster from 4/15 to 7/7. AK's career came to a horribly sad end on 6/11. Julien was gone from 6/3 through 7/20 then again from 7/24 to 8/16. Max missed essentially all of September. Larnach wasn't on the team until 4/16.

So, from 6/11 until 7/7 3 of them were on the IL or in St Paul leaving just 2 on the roster. Then while Julien remained in AAA there were only 3 on the roster until 8/16. Then again during September when Kepler's Twins career came to an unceremonious end they were back to just 3. That's a pretty significant amount of time throughout the year when there were only 2 or 3 lefties on the roster last year. 

To start the year Rocco was going Eddie- AK at the top of the order followed by Buxton and then Kepler. 3 of the 4 lefties in the top 4 in the order with only Wallner separated. 

I didn't intend for this to come across saying his lineups were predominantly 4-5 lefties at a time; I think I said that a bit too strongly. I also misspoke and meant there would be 3 righties on the bench. What I meant was that he generally had 3 or so, and so you either have to have them 1-4-7, 2-5-8, or 3-6-9 to have them spaced out. And if he had any more than that (I suppose we could throw Castro in there, too), those compromised spots would come up in the lineup, but we're unlikely to see that happen nearly as often this season.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I didn't intend for this to come across saying his lineups were predominantly 4-5 lefties at a time; I think I said that a bit too strongly. I also misspoke and meant there would be 3 righties on the bench. What I meant was that he generally had 3 or so, and so you either have to have them 1-4-7, 2-5-8, or 3-6-9 to have them spaced out. And if he had any more than that (I suppose we could throw Castro in there, too), those compromised spots would come up in the lineup, but we're unlikely to see that happen nearly as often this season.

But that doesn't explain putting 3 lefties in the top 4 spots. Especially when it pushed Correa to 5. That's making the other manager's job real easy. Just switching Kepler and Correa at least makes the other manager decide which 2 lefties they want to go after. 

Having fewer lefties will certainly make spreading them out easier, but he wasn't exactly trying hard to separate them last year.