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Posted

Consensus top-100 prospect Luke Keaschall has impressed early in spring training. Where could the 22-year-old make the most significant impact this season?

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Drafted with the 49th pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, Luke Keaschall has flourished in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Progressing from the Florida Complex League (FCL) to High-A during his first partial season in the Twins farm system, Keaschall hit .288/.414/.477, proving himself a legitimate pro. The Arizona State product also demonstrated a knack for wreaking havoc on the basepaths, netting 11 stolen bases over that stretch. The then-21-year-old improved further in his second season in Minnesota’s system, slashing .303/.420/.483 for a 158 wRC+ over 464 plate appearances between High A and Double A in 2024. His speed and aggression on the bases continued to impress, as he racked up 23 stolen bases last season.

As he begins play in the Grapefruit League this spring, Keaschall ranks third (behind outfield prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins) on pretty much everyone's Twins prospect lists, and he's solidly within the top 100 on all of the major global lists. He's managed this ascent even while managing a major elbow injury, which truncated his first full pro season when he underwent Tommy John surgery last August.

Minnesota possesses a formidable core of position-player prospects. Yet, with Jenkins needing to undergo prolonged development in the minors and Rodriguez currently stuck behind Byron Buxton, Harrison Bader, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and (for now) DaShawn Keirsey Jr. on the organization's outfield depth chart, Keaschall could make the most significant contribution to the 2025 club.

Last season, Keaschall made starts at the following positions:

  • Second base - 20 starts
  • Center field - 16 starts
  • First base - 13 starts
  • Designated hitter - 53 starts

Though tough adjustments to big-league pitching are unavoidable, Keaschall has already proved himself adept at that process of learning and holding his own. He posted a stellar 19.1% strikeout rate at Double A last year, and he's flashed good pop to go with that great feel for contact. Given the high-variance, predominately left-handed-hitting nature of their lineup last season, Minnesota would benefit from inserting a player with Keaschall's profile into the fold in 2025.

There just might be an early opening for him, too. Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Willi Castro are receiving the bulk of opportunities at second base to begin spring training. However, if Julien and Lee struggle to perform or sustain a significant injury, team decision-makers could be forced to provide Keaschall an opportunity at the position, considering that installing Castro as the primary starter at one position is an undesirable option.

Despite signing veteran Ty France to a one-year, $1-million non-guaranteed contract earlier this month to compete with José Miranda for playing time at first base, the club hasn't exactly found a surefire solution there, either. If Miranda performs well at the plate but France struggles, the front office would be greatly incentivized to roster a player who could play significant innings at the position (but also find time elsewhere).

If Miranda sustains an injury that forces him to miss extended time, Keaschall could also take his spot on the roster. He could split time with France at first base, while netting starts at second base and designated hitter. If Lee inhabits a 26-man roster spot, he could absorb more playing time at third base as Royce Lewis's primary backup.

To justify calling upon Keaschall so soon, though, the Twins would surely want to have some room for him (and trust in him) at designated hitter, too. They already have several good hitters who figure to rotate through that position. Keaschall could still fit into the mix, particularly against right-handed starting pitchers. Like Miranda, Keaschall generated reverse splits in the minors last season:

  • v. LHP: .281/.416/.404, 113 PA, 2 HR, 20 BB, 20 SO
  • v. RHP: .310/.422/.507, 351 PA, 13 HR, 42 BB, 60 SO

Manager Rocco Baldelli won't be able to platoon to the degree he did in 2024. That said, the club can still deploy predominately left-handed hitting lineups against right-handed starting pitching. Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Julien, and the switch-hitting Castro and Lee will receive significant opportunities against righties, alongside lineup mainstays Buxton, Lewis, and Carlos Correa. The club might benefit from inserting another player who hits right-handed at an above-average rate into the mix, to thwart mid-game pitching substitutions by the opposing skipper.

If he can perform at a similar rate next season, Keaschall (and his ability to hit for power against righties) could be the component that makes the team's lineup against right-handed starting pitching unparalleled. His path to an early debut is full of obstacles, but if he stays healthy, Keaschall should play in the majors this season. If and when he does, he could help the Twins in a number of ways.


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Posted

If he can hit they will find a spot for him.  2nd and 1st are clearly the areas that he could get his best shot, but his bat will be what gets him to majors and stays there.  I have a feeling both Julien and Miranda will have shorter leashes.  Julien head got in his way last year, and that is harder to fix.  Miranda injuries have got in his way last couple of years.  When fully healthy he has shown he can carry a team for stretches, but he has not been able to stay fully healthy. 

Ty France unless he has a hell of a bounce back will be an easy cut for his price tag. I just hope he does not get the Margot treatment and sticks around all year despite being a huge negative on the team. 

Posted

I am really interested to find out what kind of defensive player he is.  Ive not seen any kind of a deep dive on that other than he has defensive versatility which usually is code language for the guy isn’t a good fielder.  The bat and speed on the bases would fit nicely into our lineup.

Posted

I imagine he will start in AAA just to get some consistent AB's. Coming off surgery he will need some time to get the feeling for throwing back. In St. Paul he can also get time at DH w/o blocking the spot on the Twins. I fully expect him to get called up a little later in the season.

Posted

The list of Twins core players stops after Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. The catching tandem is fine and it is hopeful those two can fill the position one more time in 2025. After that it is a fair amount of hope based on promise, expectations, and health.

Keaschall has a good shot at being a really good MLB player. The Twins need to find him a position at some point although he could easily just slide along as a DH, 1B, 2B, OF option until his arm and potential fielding skills allow him to settle at one position.

One question remains - Can anyone identify the last Twins rookie to be inserted into an Opening Day lineup and given the time and at bats to prove themselves versus patiently waiting for an injury to open a spot?

Posted
4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I imagine he will start in AAA just to get some consistent AB's. Coming off surgery he will need some time to get the feeling for throwing back. In St. Paul he can also get time at DH w/o blocking the spot on the Twins. I fully expect him to get called up a little later in the season.

This is my thought as well.  Assuming he hits and nobody on the big club grabs 2B, Keaschall could make an impact on the club later this year.

A big issue holding him back IMO is the Twins propensity for slow-rolling their position player prospects.  As close as I think he could be this season, it would also not surprise me in the slightest if he did not get called up at all, regardless of how he plays in MiLB.

Posted
8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The list of Twins core players stops after Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. The catching tandem is fine and it is hopeful those two can fill the position one more time in 2025. After that it is a fair amount of hope based on promise, expectations, and health.

Keaschall has a good shot at being a really good MLB player. The Twins need to find him a position at some point although he could easily just slide along as a DH, 1B, 2B, OF option until his arm and potential fielding skills allow him to settle at one position.

One question remains - Can anyone identify the last Twins rookie to be inserted into an Opening Day lineup and given the time and at bats to prove themselves versus patiently waiting for an injury to open a spot?

My guess would be Mauer.  Nishioka might count here too, but I am sure I am missing someone.

Posted
8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The list of Twins core players stops after Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. The catching tandem is fine and it is hopeful those two can fill the position one more time in 2025. After that it is a fair amount of hope based on promise, expectations, and health.

Keaschall has a good shot at being a really good MLB player. The Twins need to find him a position at some point although he could easily just slide along as a DH, 1B, 2B, OF option until his arm and potential fielding skills allow him to settle at one position.

One question remains - Can anyone identify the last Twins rookie to be inserted into an Opening Day lineup and given the time and at bats to prove themselves versus patiently waiting for an injury to open a spot?

Joe Mauer  , I'm only guessing because it's early and I haven't had my morning coffee  ...

Keaschall is showing a good bat and reports are he is average with defense , IMO he won't make opening day roster with no AAA experience and also mending from an injury ...

I could be wrong , we never know what our brain trust is thinking  , I just hope they don't wreck him cause we could certainly use a good bat in the order  ....

Posted
46 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I imagine he will start in AAA just to get some consistent AB's. Coming off surgery he will need some time to get the feeling for throwing back. In St. Paul he can also get time at DH w/o blocking the spot on the Twins. I fully expect him to get called up a little later in the season.

He might start back in AA. Coming back off an injury, with less than half a season worth of ABs in AA, it would hard be a knock if they started him off in Wichita. (plus, it should be at least a little warmer which might be better coming off the injury) I expect to see him in AAA, but while hitters tend to come back faster and easier from TJ, this was still a major surgery. So I'm pumping the brakes a little on him. Not because I don't respect the talent, but injury rehab isn't always linear.

Posted
20 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He might start back in AA. Coming back off an injury, with less than half a season worth of ABs in AA, it would hard be a knock if they started him off in Wichita. (plus, it should be at least a little warmer which might be better coming off the injury) I expect to see him in AAA, but while hitters tend to come back faster and easier from TJ, this was still a major surgery. So I'm pumping the brakes a little on him. Not because I don't respect the talent, but injury rehab isn't always linear.

I'm pumping the brakes too. IMO he should start at AA, although that might not be for long. He should start off at 1B/ DH & see when he can go to 2B. IMO OF should be out of the question. IMO there's no doubt about his hitting. 

Posted

Mauer didn't really get his chance until AFTER the Twins traded AJ to the Giants (a great trade by the way).  But Mauer probably still qualifies. 

I don't think Keaschall needs to start in AA.  I think he will certainly begin the season at St. Paul.  The Twins will be interested in seeing how Brooks Lee and Julien play in spring training and then to begin the season.  Unless he has a huge spring training, I can't see Julien breaking camp with the Twins.  He's got too much to prove.  And Julien will have stiff competition for innings at 2B in St. Paul with Keaschall and Peyton Eeles.  Julien has his work cut out for him.  A slow start for Julien and good starts for Eeles and Keaschall may lead to an early season trade.

But Keaschall sure is intriguing.  Linus made a great point about Keaschall's defense.  We've heard and read that he at least appears to be be competent at 2B, 1B and LF.  He's got to build up arm strength as well.  But is there a position he shows above average to pretty good defensive ability?  It seems the tendency of the Twins is to keep playing players at multiple positions.  But could he become a Brian Dozier type 2B?  Could he be a little bit better?  A little worse?

I just don't know and I don't think many of us here on TD know either.  It's an important question to be asked.  With the addition of Bader (like it or not) our OF is pretty full (especially if you add Keirsey to the mix).  This just might put E-Rod BEHIND Keaschall in who might get a call up first.  Our OF looks much more certain than 2B and 1B do.

Rocco has said Ty France is going to get a lot of AB's.  I'm assuming that means in spring training.  Rocco is going to give France a chance to make the team.  But if France doesn't impress and Miranda looks pretty good, I think France gets cut.  

Posted

First he needs a 40 man spot. He doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until December 26. 

If he doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until that time. Getting placed on the 40 man will require a combination of events. Injuries or unexpected poor play from others combined with good play from Luke playing for the Saints. 

If those things happen... we could see him this year and I'll cheer my head off for him. 

Injuries and poor play happen all the time so it isn't impossible for these things to happen. It's up to him to hit that baseball in AAA so he's the obvious call to make. 

One thing that works in his favor is his multi-position work. This opens the door for him for injuries and poor play at multiple spots.

The thing that doesn't work in his favor is that 40 man roster. He has to out perform those in AAA that are on the 40 man.   

 

Posted

Another young guy being asked to play about 17 different positions and not getting enough reps to be good at any of them.  I get the man-crush is for "flexibility".  But for defensive purposes, I wish the organization would allow these kids to actually work at a position or two.  The Twins were a poor defensive team last year.....it may not be the only reason, but I can't help but wonder if this "master of none" approach to establishing positions for players is at least part of the reason.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

First he needs a 40 man spot. He doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until December 26. 

If he doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until that time. Getting placed on the 40 man will require a combination of events. Injuries or unexpected poor play from others combined with good play from Luke playing for the Saints. 

If those things happen... we could see him this year and I'll cheer my head off for him. 

Injuries and poor play happen all the time so it isn't impossible for these things to happen. It's up to him to hit that baseball in AAA so he's the obvious call to make. 

One thing that works in his favor is his multi-position work. This opens the door for him for injuries and poor play at multiple spots.

The thing that doesn't work in his favor is that 40 man roster. He has to out perform those in AAA that are on the 40 man.   

 

I'm not in a position to judge who is talented enough or deserves a roster position for an MLB roster, a factual "no duh" comment. Numerous young players, who would qualify as rookies and a few with minimal experience, have quite a bit of skill yet to learn at the minor league levels. Repetitions and regular game action are, IMO, important to the development of any player. 

Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Payton Eeles, and others may need further skill development and consistent every day plate appearances to prepare them for the rigors of MLB competition. As a fan I cannot argue that point. However, are they already superior in talent to those holding a position above them and more likely to make a significant impact at the MLB level?

When I look over the past 20 years of Twins baseball  I couldn't find a single position player who was elevated to the lineup and given a shot to play at the MLB level. Did I miss someone? (Nishioka came over from Japan and had won a batting championship there. I don't  consider Japanese baseball as a minor league experience.) That may be true of other teams as well, I simply don't know. The Twins have to go back to Joe Mauer. What does this say about the talent, development, or decision-making of the Twins? Anything? Maybe not. 

How many plate appearances will Walker Jenkins need? Emmanuel Rodriguez? If Julien needs time at 1B and Brooks Lee needs reps at 2B in St. Paul, how does that impact either Keaschall or Eeles? Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio were hyped prospects who received a long run before one succeeded and the other was sent back to AAA. Jackson Merrill had 300 PA at A+, 211 PA at AA, and zero at AAA  before he was plopped into CF, a position he had never played, by the San Diego Padres. Merrill was not viewed in the same tier as either Holliday or Chourio (a tier where Jenkins currently resides) but was essentially in the same tier of prospect as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. Apparently the Padres saw something in their prospect that the Twins don't ever seem to see in their prospects.

While I don't necessarily question any of the specific current decisions related to any specific rookies, I do question why it takes a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Fame player before the Twins take a chance on playing a prospect. I also wonder what some of the coaches believe, but from prior experience know this will never be known.

Posted
3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not in a position to judge who is talented enough or deserves a roster position for an MLB roster, a factual "no duh" comment. Numerous young players, who would qualify as rookies and a few with minimal experience, have quite a bit of skill yet to learn at the minor league levels. Repetitions and regular game action are, IMO, important to the development of any player. 

Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Payton Eeles, and others may need further skill development and consistent every day plate appearances to prepare them for the rigors of MLB competition. As a fan I cannot argue that point. However, are they already superior in talent to those holding a position above them and more likely to make a significant impact at the MLB level?

When I look over the past 20 years of Twins baseball  I couldn't find a single position player who was elevated to the lineup and given a shot to play at the MLB level. Did I miss someone? (Nishioka came over from Japan and had won a batting championship there. I don't  consider Japanese baseball as a minor league experience.) That may be true of other teams as well, I simply don't know. The Twins have to go back to Joe Mauer. What does this say about the talent, development, or decision-making of the Twins? Anything? Maybe not. 

How many plate appearances will Walker Jenkins need? Emmanuel Rodriguez? If Julien needs time at 1B and Brooks Lee needs reps at 2B in St. Paul, how does that impact either Keaschall or Eeles? Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio were hyped prospects who received a long run before one succeeded and the other was sent back to AAA. Jackson Merrill had 300 PA at A+, 211 PA at AA, and zero at AAA  before he was plopped into CF, a position he had never played, by the San Diego Padres. Merrill was not viewed in the same tier as either Holliday or Chourio (a tier where Jenkins currently resides) but was essentially in the same tier of prospect as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. Apparently the Padres saw something in their prospect that the Twins don't ever seem to see in their prospects.

While I don't necessarily question any of the specific current decisions related to any specific rookies, I do question why it takes a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Fame player before the Twins take a chance on playing a prospect. I also wonder what some of the coaches believe, but from prior experience know this will never be known.

Great Post

I agree with you. 

It's complicated... it has to be complicated because of roster limitations. But... everything you are saying... I agree with because I've seen it with my own eyes. 

I've come to the conclusion that it's possible that our expectations for young players exceed our expectations for veteran players and I think the Twins have a little of that cooking in their kitchen. 

There are a couple of arguments in support of the Twins. 

1. You need players that you can stash in the minors for call up when needed. That stash isn't endless so it's risk to drain it during the off-season.   

2. You don't want to start the clock to early on players with the potential of a long career. A talented player reaching free agency at age 30 as opposed to 28 will be a fairly large issue in the final year of club control. 

But... there are a couple of arguments that do not support the Twins and how they SEEM to operate in regards to young talent. 

1. I see no evidence of lower tier vets out performing Pre-arb players. None. Yes... you can sign a lower tier vet who produces league average or even slightly above but you can trip over the same production from a pre-arb player and in the case of lower tier vets who perform below league average... I see yearly evidence of pre-arb players who match or exceed.  

2. I see yearly evidence of smaller market teams thriving with over half of their 26 man roster comprised of pre-arb talent. With the Twins certain rookies will get chance after chance while others are given one shot. The Twins rode Buxton until Buxton become Buxton. They rode Sano until Sano became Sano. The rest of the young players coming up through the farm spill over the side into the baseball wind. How can the Twins miss on Rooker, How can the Padres? How can the Royals. This is how.  

3. Pre-Arb Talent that struggle... will be back next year to try again with some experience behind them. Lower tier vet talent that struggle or even those who perform average or slightly above on one year contracts will not be back next year. 

In the end... I'm not a fan of pre-determination... even when that pre-determination is done by front offices whose job it is to make these hard decisions.

Personally, I'd rather Keaschall be given a legit shot to win a job if he is indeed the best player. I'd rather Emma be given a legit shot to win a job. I'd rather anybody on the farm be given a legit shot over some 1 year lower tier guy who will not be back next year. 

With that said... I expect Keaschall to get a roster spot when a specific sequence events occur in 2025 to require his early addition to the 40 man and 26 man roster. When that happens... I hope he is given the opportunity to win a job and not sit on the bench like Camargo did watching Vazquez OPS .575.    

Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

First he needs a 40 man spot. He doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until December 26. 

If he doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man until that time. Getting placed on the 40 man will require a combination of events. Injuries or unexpected poor play from others combined with good play from Luke playing for the Saints. 

If those things happen... we could see him this year and I'll cheer my head off for him. 

Injuries and poor play happen all the time so it isn't impossible for these things to happen. It's up to him to hit that baseball in AAA so he's the obvious call to make. 

One thing that works in his favor is his multi-position work. This opens the door for him for injuries and poor play at multiple spots.

The thing that doesn't work in his favor is that 40 man roster. He has to out perform those in AAA that are on the 40 man.   

 

To add on to this if you bring him up before he is ready you start the service time clock ticking.  So between that and the 40 man factor I don’t see him up with the Twins this year barring crazy injuries.

Posted
3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

My guess would be Mauer.  Nishioka might count here too, but I am sure I am missing someone.

Byung-Ho Park is more recent.

Buxton was handed the job when Aaron Hicks flopped after they traded away Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Royce Lewis got a job in May of 2022 and they were prepared to let him keep it but he injured himself.

Posted
3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

One question remains - Can anyone identify the last Twins rookie to be inserted into an Opening Day lineup and given the time and at bats to prove themselves versus patiently waiting for an injury to open a spot?

I think Aaron Hicks might be the most recent to debut on Opening Day (2013)?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I think Aaron Hicks might be the most recent to debut on Opening Day (2013)?

I think you nailed it.

Posted

Aaron Hicks. Yes. Thank you, I missed him. Felt I was missing a player too. I didn't consider players who had played substantially in another country's MLB.

Does Aaron Hicks and his failure to star make him responsible for no more chances for rookies? JK. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does Aaron Hicks and his failure to star make him responsible for no more chances for rookies? JK. 

The last 3 were Hicks, Byung-Ho Park and Nishioka. Not a stellar track record.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Linus said:

To add on to this if you bring him up before he is ready you start the service time clock ticking.  So between that and the 40 man factor I don’t see him up with the Twins this year barring crazy injuries.

When is a player ready? Some teams have no problem bringing a player directly from A+ or AA. Even the mighty NYY put Anthony Volpe at shortstop after 22 games at AAA. Volpe is a good player but hardly an All Star. The service clock is never a reason to lose games playing inferior talent. I'm not expecting anything but it seems radical to never play a rookie until nobody is left as an option.

Posted

For various reasons I think the most likely answer is Keaschall doesn't really have a role with the 2025 Twins. He hasn't earned a promotion from Double-A yet (830 OPS and he hasn't really played his best defensive positions due to arm issues). I would give him at least 2 months in Wichita while playing at most two positions. If his bat gets him to St. Paul they will need to focus more on a single position to prepare him for an everyday spot in MLB. That will take another few months.

It will probably be in September when we see Keaschall debut.

Posted
13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

When is a player ready? Some teams have no problem bringing a player directly from A+ or AA. Even the mighty NYY put Anthony Volpe at shortstop after 22 games at AAA. Volpe is a good player but hardly an All Star. The service clock is never a reason to lose games playing inferior talent. I'm not expecting anything but it seems radical to never play a rookie until nobody is left as an option.

Yea well that is not what I said.  Go ahead and re-read what I wrote to answer your question.

Posted
36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

For various reasons I think the most likely answer is Keaschall doesn't really have a role with the 2025 Twins. He hasn't earned a promotion from Double-A yet (830 OPS and he hasn't really played his best defensive positions due to arm issues). I would give him at least 2 months in Wichita while playing at most two positions. If his bat gets him to St. Paul they will need to focus more on a single position to prepare him for an everyday spot in MLB. That will take another few months.

It will probably be in September when we see Keaschall debut.

I tend to agree with you on this, because of the roster construction the Twins have. If I was running the Twins I would start EROD in left or right, whatever position he would be best at. I wouldn't bring up Keaschall until I had to, injuries, terrible play by others. IMO the biggest issue the Twins have is they really don't know what they have with WAY too many players, Will Wallner be adequate against LH? same with Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Lee and Lewis going to get better or not, that means it is hard to give another position to a rookie and let him learn the job on the fly and struggle. (Landford, Merrill, Chuorio, Volpe style) so they bring in mediocre vets and retard the younger guys. Very similar to what they have done with the rotation is SWR a legit rotation guy (don't care what number) if they believe he is, you can just put Festa in there and see how it goes, but since that really isn't an answered question you get Paddack and Festa most likely ends up in AAA and when he gets called up if he struggles he will probably go down and Matthews comes up, and if one of them doesn't secure the job, rinse and repeat in 2026.

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