Make or Break Players on the 2025 Twins: Edouard Julien

[Eric Blonigen]

Edouard Julien, every Twins fan’s favorite current French-Canadian player, is an enigma wrapped in a mystery wrapped in a bunch of confusion. What does 2025 have in store for him?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

2025 will be a pivotal year for Twins infielder Edouard Julien. Nine months from now, he will either have cemented himself as a key part of the Twins’ plans, or he will likely be out of the organization as he will be out of options and behind a number of other players on the depth chart. Coming from an impressive rookie season in 2023 to an eminently-forgettable sophomore slump in 2024. Let’s dig into what went wrong last year, and how he can get back on track.

What Went Wrong In 2024?
Unfortunately, this can be summed up by a single word: everything. Let’s start with the elephant in the room — Eddie Julien’s extreme patience at the plate transcended fully into passivity, and opposing pitchers learned they could get an easy called third strike by throwing the ball almost anywhere over the plate except middle-up. That’s…a problem. In fact, Julien led the majors in backwards Ks, despite taking fewer plate appearances than the next-worst player. Have I mentioned... that’s bad?

Unpacking the rest of the mess, Julien swung at more non-competitive pitches outside the zone, laid off pitches on the edge but in zone, and as a result, his otherworldly 15.7% walk rate in 2023 dropped to a still-very-good 11%. Similarly, his brutal 31.4% strikeout rate in 2023 rose to a Miguel Sano-esque 33.9% in 2024. That’s just not tenable unless you have 35 homer power, and Julien does not have that.

As if that’s not enough, the quality of Julien’s contact, when he made it, also decreased. In fact, he was roughly 20% worse than an average hitter, which isn’t great for a 25 year old with limited defensive chops. His hard hit percentage dropped by seven points. He lost 1.7 MPH of average swing speed. His barrel rate dropped by 3.3%. Data has shown that pulling the ball while hitting an optimal launch angle range leads to the best outcomes for doubles and home runs, and Julien stopped pulling the ball as much, while also getting well under the ball more frequently. In short, based on his swing data, Julien just wasn’t setting himself up for good at bats.

What Can Go Right In 2025?
Well, this can also be answered in a pithy way, because it would be hard to not improve across the board. Yes, Julien was that lost last season. You want a more nuanced take? Let’s get specific. First, Julien will need to get more aggressive at the plate, while also improving his pitch selection. He needs to fix his timing to cut down on the pop outs and fly ball outs. He will probably need to work with the training and coaching staffs to work on his biomechanics in order to improve his bat speed back to 2023 levels.

Now for the good news. After being sent down to Triple-A three different times, Julien worked on his approach at the plate. He was recalled on August 15th due to necessity, and looked much better for at least a few weeks. He was striking out less, hit significantly more line drives, and looked closer to the 2023 version of himself. That’s a small sample size, to be sure. With any luck, his month-long stretch in August and September was a harbinger of a rediscovered approach, because if so, that will mean some things for the Twins.

When he’s right at the plate, he’s capable of putting up an .800 OPS, and should make opposing pitchers work to get him out. When he’s right, he’s an on-base machine with moderate power. When he’s right, he’s capable of being one of the Twins’ best hitters, and a lineup building block. He just needs to prove it again. With a full offseason to work on his approach, hopefully his 2025 will look closer to his 2023 than his 2024.

And, this is certainly possible. According to Julien himself, he is currently focusing on squaring up, using the whole field, and working on his approach to pitches down in the zone.

How Will This Impact The Twins?
Rocco Baldelli gave a quote to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, specifically relating to Jose Miranda, but it likely also applies to Julien: “It’s a healthy thing for an organization have motivated guys that are going out there and want to earn their spot and their opportunities and their at-bats. The hungrier players are, a lot of times the better version of them you get.”

Based on that quote, It’s only fair to assume that the Twins are not counting on Julien as a lock to improve, or they likely wouldn’t have added Ty France at first base, which might be Julien’s best defensive position (even though he has little time there). They likely wouldn’t have brought options like Mickey Gasper and Mike Ford, both of whom also play first base. At second, there is similar logjam, with Brooks Lee, Willi Castro, and eventually Luke Keaschall all slotting in well there.

That said, if Julien can find his 2023 form, and even take a small step forward, he will have forced the Twins hand from a playing time standpoint, and the Twins will probably be running away with the division. It will also probably mean that there’s a bit of a roster crunch that could make some things interesting at the trade deadline.

Longer-term, that will also mean that the Twins can pencil Julien in as an everyday player at an affordable, pre-arbitration rate for a couple of years. That will create some additional flexibility down the road, and make it easier to trade a young infielder, if necessary, to fill another need.

If, however, Julien can’t adjust, then it will be a case of an unheralded, late-round draft pick catching lightning in a bottle for two minor league seasons and his debut MLB season and briefly becoming a fan favorite, only for the bottom to drop out. It happens all the time, and would almost certainly lead to him being non-tendered after using his final option year in 2025.

It’ll be up to Julien to show he can make adjustments, get more aggressive at the plate, and show he’s a Major League player. Do you think he can do it? Comment below!

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[Patzky]

Whatever Edouard does it should start with switching to jersey #51. 

[Dman]

I was a pretty big believer in his approach and when he caught fire his first time up thought he was going to make it for sure.  Pitchers have caught onto his approach though and are putting the ball in areas where he has trouble getting good contact with the ball.  Way too many K's looking has been a killer as well.  Sometimes it's best to foul close ones off rather than let the ump decide your fate.  There is a lot to fix hopefully this is the year it all comes together.

I think a lot of time make or break isn't really the correct term as young players still have time to turn things around, but in Jullien's case it really is make or break.  As noted in the article with no options left after this year if he doesn't vastly improve there will be no room for him on the 40 man.

He does have a good eye at the plate which had been his calling card all the way up to MLB, but there were always some holes in his swing all the way up too.  If he can't fix that this year it seems unlikely he ever will.

Also as noted he isn't the greatest 2nd baseman, but he is serviceable there and unless he taps into his power he isn't that great a choice for first base and again as noted there are younger players with as much or more potential that could squeeze him out. He needs to put things together this year and I think he will.  We'll all know soon enough.

 

 

[chinmusic]

15 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Whatever Edouard does it should start with switching to jersey #51. 

After last night, I'd suggest number one!

[NYCTK]

17 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Whatever Edouard does it should start with switching to jersey #51. 

Or maybe #34. 

[DJL44]

I have more confidence that he can provide value as a hitter than I do that he can provide value on defense at 2B. I don't think he has the athletic ability to play 2B in the major leagues except as a fill-in.

If he hits like he has shown in the past, he has enough bat for 1B/DH. If he doesn't, then he doesn't have enough bat to overcome his defensive deficiencies at 2B.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Julien is the Twins poster child for make-or-break this year.  I imagine the leash for him will be relatively short this year.  If he gets off to a slow start, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see him moved.

I also think he his one of those guys that may need a change of scenery to see success.

[LambchoP]

Julien is young enough and talented enough that I'm not ready to give up on him yet after only one bad year. However, unless he totally years it up in spring training, I'm starting him at St. Paul and making him earn his way back. His defense anywhere will never be great, and with plenty of other options at first and second base, Julien's bat is going to need to be his calling card. This is likely his last chance to earn a spot on the big league club as he's out of options after this year. I wish him the best. If he hits like he did in 23, the roster crunch gets interesting with Castro, Lee, Keaschal and Eeles all vying for at bats in the infield.

[Road trip]

Julien had the sophomore slump, extreme edition.  Some guys bounce back from that, some never do.  I'm rooting for him, but... well I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It does seem like this is probably the year for Julien to either do it or not.  My money is on him to put it back together and play well.  I don’t think he’s going to be a big slugger or defensive wizard, but in his best form he has enough power to be very valuable and enough glove to hold his own at second base.  Because of the number of players available at second and first, I’m not excessively concerned about him putting it together (or not).  I think the position will get covered, even if it gets a little messy in the short term.

 I’m actually at least as concerned about Royce Lewis at third base.  Between injuries and fatigue, he was a pretty big mess last year and we are not expecting him to be merely the good version of Eddie Julien, we’re expecting him to be a star and a vital cog in the offense and defense.  The let down for the team is much more serious if Lewis crashes and burns than if Eddie Julien does.  Both of them on the upswing will really help this team offensively.  

[jmlease1]

Julien is in an interesting position. He's definitely at a bit of a crossroads, because a repeat of last season would be a huge negative and a sign that he's not able to adjust/improve. That said, he doesn't have to flip completely back to 2023 (nice as that would be) to still have potential and value. but he's got to show that he's turning the ship.

I agree that he needs to be more aggressive in attacking ball that he can drive earlier in counts. I think the biggest question is where his pitch recognition is. You could tell that when he was really struggling and taking that called 3rd strike that often he was really fooled on the pitch. Can he improve that?

He was good enough for long enough in 2023 that giving up on him/deciding that he's never going to hit in MLB because of 2024 is pretty foolish and short-sighted. But while he's not a disaster in the field, he's not an impressive defender and unlikely to ever be a plus guy on that side, so he has to hit. he was really good in 2023, showing good patience, solid power, and good baserunning. If he can get back to anywhere close that he's a real asset.

(and if he's getting on base, I hope the Twins unleash him a little more in the running game. He's been a quality baserunner even if he's not the fastest dude in the world and could add a little more to the twins if they open it up a little more for him)

[PatPfund]

In '23 Julien came up scratching and clawing for an MLB job. His hitting forced the issue; he was simply to send down after a 'temporary' call-up. And he worked very hard to improve his defense, which did in fact improve from dicey to solid.

In '24 Julien looked like a player who had an MLB job, and was letting momentum and time carry him forward. Passivity at the plate. An end to hard work on defense (and a regression there toward butchery).

Hopefully the offseason lit some sort of lamp, because '23 Julien was a guy you couldn't keep off the roster, while the '24 version is the type that finds themselves out of baseball quickly. (I'm betting on '23 Edouard.)

[chpettit19]

Julien's problem has always been his inability to hit non-fastballs at anywhere close to an acceptable level because his swing was way too steep. His approach got a little off last year, but it wasn't much different than the year before. The difference was that the league figured out that he couldn't hit anything that moved so they stopped throwing him fastballs and started throwing him breaking stuff that he doesn't swing at much because he knows he can't hit them. In the couple clips I've seen of him this spring his swing does look flatter. That's going to be the key to him bouncing back. I'd expect him to get under 50% fastballs to start while he's in the bigs. They're going to make him prove he can hit the breaking stuff.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Julien is young enough and talented enough that I'm not ready to give up on him yet after only one bad year. However, unless he totally years it up in spring training, I'm starting him at St. Paul and making him earn his way back. His defense anywhere will never be great, and with plenty of other options at first and second base, Julien's bat is going to need to be his calling card. This is likely his last chance to earn a spot on the big league club as he's out of options after this year. I wish him the best. If he hits like he did in 23, the roster crunch gets interesting with Castro, Lee, Keaschal and Eeles all vying for at bats in the infield.

He clearly beats out Keaschal and Eeles for a spot.   Castro is a lock.    Battle is with Lee.

[Linus]

People’s impression of Julien is of the 2-3 months at the end of the 23 season.  It was a fluke: the league had never seen his unusual hitting profile and he had a babip of 373.  The league adjusted and we saw what that looked like in 24.

Now he is going to have to adjust.  Due to his swing style I am skeptical he can do it.  Since is not a good fielder he isn’t going to get playing for any reason other than mashing the ball.  I don’t believe Julien will contribute anything significant going forward.  I hope I am wrong.

[Parfigliano]

13 minutes ago, Linus said:

People’s impression of Julien is of the 2-3 months at the end of the 23 season.  It was a fluke: the league had never seen his unusual hitting profile and he had a babip of 373.  The league adjusted and we saw what that looked like in 24.

Now he is going to have to adjust.  Due to his swing style I am skeptical he can do it.  Since is not a good fielder he isn’t going to get playing for any reason other than mashing the ball.  I don’t believe Julien will contribute anything significant going forward.  I hope I am wrong.

I hope you're wrong too.

[Doctor Gast]

I've been a Julien fan but I never agreed with the Twins' determination of trying to hide Julien at 2B. He was best suited for 1B but they have kept him away from 1B. Last offseason I said if they aren't playing him at 1B they should trade him while his value was high. They should have but they were bound & determined to swap out Polanco.

The league has the book out on him & took away his HR advantage. He tried to be more aggressive only to strike out more. He doesn't have to adapt, he has to reinvent himself much like what Larnach did with less power. I doubt that Julien can do that but if he can he'll never profile at 1B which he's best suited for. Julien is way down on the 2B pecking order. Ranking Lewis if they gave him a chance there, Lee, Martin & Castro ahead of him, not including Keaschal. They should have traded him this offseason while he still has some hype. But like any player they hand-picked, they'll give Julien every opportunity to show how bad he is. He won't have GG Santana to cover him which makes it that much easier. But to the detriment of the Twins.

[ashbury]

Comparing his 2023 to 2024, one thing that jumps out at me is his success when putting the ball in play on the first pitch.  In 2023 that OPS was 1.452, and in 2023 it was .709.  Across the league it's typical to elevate your OPS on those first-pitch swings (.905 vs an overall .711 in 2024), but for Julien it was extreme on the plus side in his first year and then it was more than gone the second year.  Now, this is statistically lacking in significance for an individual player, with 43 and 33 PA to work with respectively in the case of Julien.  And another poster noted his elevated BABIP in 2023.  Still, small-sample data can be in support of the eye-test, which in the case of Julien is an almost pathological lack of aggressiveness at the plate.

There's a similar eye-test regarding his defense at 2B, which by my recollection is he did okay when the play was within his range and needed to be quick, but if he "had time to think about it" the throw could go astray.

I'm not fond of applying the term head-case very frequently, especially because only an insider can make that judgment, but for Julien I think there's a chance that a specialist in sports psychology could do as much good as any of the coaches in their specific skill domains.

[Riverbrian]

Jekyll and Hyde thus far. It's important to point out that his future years... do not... absolutely do not... have to be either extreme. His future production could land somewhere in the middle. And that middle is still valuable for someone making the minimum.

For example... If you add his Jekyll and Hyde together. His Jekyllhyde is still above average as a hitter. 

HIs 2024 .616 OPS over 301 Plate Appearances was not good. However... no matter how bad his 2024 was. His career OPS is still above average because his 2023 was that good.  

Career OPS over 709 PA's is .742.

Santana had a .749 OPS last year and we were singing songs about him and suddenly he costs 12 million. 

Castro had an OPS of .716 last year. 

Julien is that pre-arb player making the minimum that we need so we don't have to pay extra for it. 

The willingness to write him off and toss aside is somewhat astounding. 

Give him a job... He will tell us through performance.

Check his teeth and hair... if his hair is messed up and his teeth widen to the point where they don't fit his mouth. We will know he drank the potion again.  

  

 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

People’s impression of Julien is of the 2-3 months at the end of the 23 season.  It was a fluke: the league had never seen his unusual hitting profile and he had a babip of 373.  The league adjusted and we saw what that looked like in 24.

Now he is going to have to adjust.  Due to his swing style I am skeptical he can do it.  Since is not a good fielder he isn’t going to get playing for any reason other than mashing the ball.  I don’t believe Julien will contribute anything significant going forward.  I hope I am wrong.

but that's not really accurate: Julien was good over the whole 2023 season. his worst month was August (.653 OPS) and he was very good in May & June. It wasn't just 2-3 good months.

I think the best reason to skeptical of Julien is how much he's struggled with breaking balls overall. He's got to learn how to handle the breaking stuff better, because he's going to see a lot of it. Last season he saw a real increase in breaking pitches and he handled them worse than ever. He wasn't even punishing the hangers. So I agree the league did adjust to him and had a book on how to attack him.

But Larnach went from not being able to handle anything off-speed to surviving against it (while punishing the fastballs he did get in the zone), so it's not like it's impossible for a player to improve when they start seeing a heavy diet of what they're worst at.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

People’s impression of Julien is of the 2-3 months at the end of the 23 season.  It was a fluke: the league had never seen his unusual hitting profile and he had a babip of 373.  The league adjusted and we saw what that looked like in 24.

Now he is going to have to adjust.  Due to his swing style I am skeptical he can do it.  Since is not a good fielder he isn’t going to get playing for any reason other than mashing the ball.  I don’t believe Julien will contribute anything significant going forward.  I hope I am wrong.

While I don't disagree with you about Julien's 2023 and 2024 and also hope that Edouard can return to relevance, I can't help but compare Julien and Lewis despite their obvious physical differences. Didn't the league catch up to Royce? Was he tired? Out of shape? The lack of analysis of Royce Lewis who I hope has a monster season in 2025 is absent while the critical looks at every weakness of Julien are continual, to include thoughts of needing more AAA or just trade or release the guy. 

BTW, I picked Payton Eeles for 2B. We know that won't happen.

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

but that's not really accurate: Julien was good over the whole 2023 season. his worst month was August (.653 OPS) and he was very good in May & June. It wasn't just 2-3 good months.

I think the best reason to skeptical of Julien is how much he's struggled with breaking balls overall. He's got to learn how to handle the breaking stuff better, because he's going to see a lot of it. Last season he saw a real increase in breaking pitches and he handled them worse than ever. He wasn't even punishing the hangers. So I agree the league did adjust to him and had a book on how to attack him.

But Larnach went from not being able to handle anything off-speed to surviving against it (while punishing the fastballs he did get in the zone), so it's not like it's impossible for a player to improve when they start seeing a heavy diet of what they're worst at.

Hmmm….i am doing this from memory and I recalled that he didn’t really play until the second half of 2023.  Regardless the babip was a huge harbinger of things to come.  My skeptical outlook should be in no way taken as I want to cut him.  I want him to get a fresh start in St Paul and see where it goes.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just do the guy a solid and trade him. 

[bean5302]

Julien is going to have to prove he will swing at pitches and make contact to extend plate appearances, even when the pitches he's seeing aren't his favorites. I think Julien's performance last year was actually a good part mental. Like Wallner's struggles early after getting some real bad strike calls to open the season. It's not like the Twins gave him much time to work through his struggles, either. Julien continued to hold his own through mid-May, and the Twins pulled the plug on him after literally 2 weeks of struggles. What a mind trip it must have been. One week "he's our guy!" 2 weeks later, "f that guy. loser. let's get Golden Child guaranteed RoY Brooks Lee up here!"

A lot of people forget Julien started the season very well last year. Through April, 109 PA:
.223/.330/.500 wRC+ 136 despite a lowly .269 BABIP.
 
Oswing was 17% Zswing was 58%, 37% overall, and contact was 73%.
Julien was only seeing 31% four seamers at that point, and he saw 29% for the rest of the year so it's not like pitchers changed their approach in terms of the type of pitches they were throwing him.

Even May 1 through May 15
.243/.364/.270 wRC+94

after April, overall, the wheels really fell off. Julien opened up his swing zone a fair bit
Oswing was 21% Zswing was 62%, 43% overall, contact was 71%.

Julien's problems after April were not really related to offspeed and breaking pitches. He wasn't hitting fastballs anymore. From +8.5 to -2.1 in pitch type value for 4 seamers. Barrel rate and hard hit rates tanked along with exit velocity and balls were flat coming off his bat.

Writing Julien entirely off at this point is a little crazy.

[Guest]

Finally, a "make-or-break" story that's relevant....

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, chinmusic said:

After last night, I'd suggest number one!

Like it.. except he ain't!

[tony&rodney]

39 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Finally, a "make-or-break" story that's relevant....

Ok, fair enough. Do you also expect a similar article that dissects Royce Lewis?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok, fair enough. Do you also expect a similar article that dissects Royce Lewis?

I think it is in order, because what we are expecting of him is so much greater than Julien.  For the most part people have Lewis’ name written in the lineup in pen and are expecting him to be one of the top offensive forces on the team.  That means his success or failure have much larger consequences for the team’s outlook overall.  So, while we may think his floor is higher than Julien’s at this point (maybe), but if he is sitting on his floor the Twins are in trouble.  

[DocBauer]

I have a basic principle that says when a guy rakes in college, and then rakes in MILB, and rakes at the ML level...even in a SSS and at least shows SOMETHING...I don't write him off when he struggles. It's just a general philosophy that doesn't ALWAYS hold true...some guys are just a flash in the pan and that's it...but I stand by what I've seen over the years.

The problem with Julien is that he was just SO LOST after the first few weeks of 2024 that I don't know what to expect.

I pretend to be pretty smart, LOL, but I don't have the expert eye on something that @chpettit19 put out there regarding Julien's swing path. Others are way smarter than me on such things. Some are even paid to figure that out! 

What i saw was a kid who was lost and then lost confidence. While some refuse to accept it, or didn't see enough to really know, he worked damn hard on his defense in 2023, and improved to the point where he was at least ML average at the position. And that's fine as long as the bat plays. But the defense went downhill when his bat went downhill last year.

I was actually shocked how many times his "great eye" betrayed him and he was sent down with another K from a pitch right in his previous zone. Again, for whatever reason(s), the kid looked lost to me. And it looked like his confidence was gone. I HATE to bring up previous nightmares, but he reminded me of watching Gallo just HOPING he could earn a BB at times while at the plate.

But Julien DOES have a good eye for the zone. He DOES have the ability to spray the field for hits, doubles, and some legitimate HR power. He DOES have a good work ethic. So he DOES have the ability to adjust...if his head is now clear...and adjust his swing, foul of some pitches like Larnach learned to do better, and maybe STRIKE more often.

I sure hope that happens, as there's a really good offensive ballplayer in there, even though he's restricted to 2B/1B/DH. Unfortunately for him, if things go well in the INF going forward with talent on hand, and Keaschall not too far away, he might not have a FIXED position. But that's OK if his bat comes around. There's absolutely room for him.

SIDE NOTE: A comment from Larnach last year...since he's been brought up...was something along the lines of...and I'm paraphrasing here... "I've hardly ever seen a FB since I turned pro! It's always been about fouling off the other stuff to finding something I could hit". Sounds a bit like Julien at this point.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think it is in order, because what we are expecting of him is so much greater than Julien.  For the most part people have Lewis’ name written in the lineup in pen and are expecting him to be one of the top offensive forces on the team.  That means his success or failure have much larger consequences for the team’s outlook overall.  So, while we may think his floor is higher than Julien’s at this point (maybe), but if he is sitting on his floor the Twins are in trouble.  

Thank you. My sense is the same as yours concerning Lewis and hope he does well this season.

Since last October, I have asked numerous times why the singular focus on Julien, who seemingly has a greater degree of difficulty to return to favor, as opposed to the repeated reference to and expectation of core production from Lewis. This is the first response and I too believe an analysis is due on a player who has put up the same general worth as Julien. Lewis did not fall as far as Julien last season but ended the year poorly. Julien and Lewis were roughly even in 2023 with various numbers favoring one or the other; pretty similar.