What Differentiated Harrison Bader from the Field of RH Outfield Bats?

[Nick Nelson]

Four different players fitting this same mold all signed within the past few days. Harrison Bader was the Twins' choice, and he got the largest deal of the group.

What made Bader stand out from the other available options as a fit and a worthy investment?

Image courtesy of Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

It's been a busy week for a very specific free-agent market: right-handed swinging outfielders who are fringe starters and more likely destined for backup/platoon roles. Ramón Laureano opened the floodgates by agreeing with the Orioles on a deal Tuesday afternoon. A couple hours later, we learned Randal Grichuk will be returning to the Diamondbacks. On Wednesday the Twins came to terms with Harrison Bader and on Thursday morning Tommy Pham's contract with the Pirates was reported.

What's interesting is not only how close these signings were in proximity but also how similar the terms were on all the them:

• Tommy Pham, PIT: 1 year, $4 million
• Ramon Laureano, BAL: 1 year, $4 million
• Randal Grichuk, ARI: 1 year, $5 million (mutual option)
• Harrison Bader, MIN: 1 year, $6.25 million (mutual option, $2M incentives)

Yes, you read that right: in this niche pocket of free agency, the Twins were the big spenders. While all four players project to provide similar value — albeit in different ways — Minnesota had a preference and spent what it took to get their guy. Based on their surprising willingness to commit up to $8 million in addressing this need, the Twins seemingly could had their pick of the bunch. What led them to choose Bader?

Let's first quickly explore the strengths and weaknesses of all four players to establish what they stand to offer to the Twins.

Harrison Bader

Pros:

• Elite Defense: Bader is renowned for his exceptional defensive abilities in center field, having won a Gold Glove in 2021 and ranking in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average each of the past two seasons. He's also got a fantastic arm.
• Speed: He has consistently demonstrated above-average speed, contributing both in the outfield and on the base paths. Bader's sprint speed last year, at 28.2 ft/sec, would've ranked fourth among all Twins behind Byron Buxton, Michael Helman and Austin Martin.

Cons:

• Subpar Bat: He has a 91 career OPS+ and finished last year with an 86 mark. Although he's better against lefties than righties, he's hardly been dominant against them.
• Injury Concerns: Bader has had multiple stints on the injured list, and last year dealt with midseason neck and ankle injuries that might've contributed to his performance tanking in the second half.

Randal Grichuk

Pros:

• Power Hitting Prowess: Grichuk has a history of providing solid power numbers, especially against left-handed pitching. In 2024, he posted a .914 OPS against lefties with an .875 OPS overall.
• Offensive Floor: The 33-year-old has consistently been at least a pretty good hitter. Grichuk has only once posted an OPS+ below Bader's career mark (91) since his rookie season in 2014.

Cons:

• Plate Discipline: He has a career .300 on-base percentage thanks to his lack of patience at the plate. Poor discipline can lead to rapid deterioration in one's mid-30s.
• Limited Fielding Ability: He's more serviceable than good in the outfield corners and has pretty much ceased to be an option in center, making zero appearances there in 2024.

Ramón Laureano

Pros:

• Strong Arm: Laureano has one of the best outfield cannons in the game, with his arm strength ranking in the 89th percentile per Statcast and his "arm value" ranking in the 100th percentile. Imagine him and Matt Wallner in the same outfield.
• Hits Lefties: Batted .305 against southpaws last year and has an .802 career OPS against them.

(via Fangraphs)

Cons:

• Health Track Record: He has an injury-prone reputation and was handed a PED suspension in 2021, since which he's never been able to recapture the promise he displayed early in his career.
• Lack of Range: His good arm isn't accompanied by particularly good reactions or closing speed in the outfield, which is why he's primarily been limited to RF in recent years.

Tommy Pham

Pros:

• Quality Career Hitting Record: He has a 111 career OPS+ and in his prime was an All-Star caliber regular. He's easily the most disciplined hitter on this list.
• Veteran Experience: His extensive MLB experience provides leadership and a seasoned presence in the clubhouse, though his personality is considered an ... acquired taste.

Cons:

• Lacking Platoon Appeal: Despite being a righty swinger, Pham's L/R splits are pretty neutral, reducing his value as a matchup-based player in the corners.
• Defensive Decline: He was a borderline center field option at best, but at age 37 using Pham anywhere other than the corners or DH is malpractice. (The White Sox gave him 30 starts in CF last year, which, yeah.)

Why Did the Twins Go with Harrison Bader?
There's a case to be made that Bader is the worst hitter of these four. ZiPS from FanGraphs forecasts him to slash .237/.287/.369 in 2025 — that ranks as the lowest AVG, OBP and SLG of the bunch. It's basically Manuel Margot from 2024 (.238/.289/.337) with a bit more power. 

But Bader is also pretty clearly the best defender and best overall athlete in the group. Given the needs of this specific role, backing up Buxton in center and likely appearing frequently as a late-game sub, it's understandable that these traits would take priority. Minnesota's defense was an absolute mess last year when guys like Buxton and Carlos Correa weren't on the field, which certainly played a role in the team's second-half collapse.

Not as big of a role as their offense, though. Between Bader and reliever Danny Coulombe, the Twins have now spent almost $10 million in money they seemingly didn't have without doing a thing to address their offense that tanked their 2024 season. 

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[LambchoP]

My guess is a trade of Paddack is coming. If the Twins really are looking at backup infielders, maybe that means Castro is on the block too. I hope we keep him, he's too valuable to such an injury prone team like the Twins. I am hoping for a trade to acquire an offensive first baseman or Dylan Cease. As long as the trade doesn't hurt our lineup too much. 

[DJL44]

A flyball pitching staff needs a good CF behind it. Between Buxton and Bader they should be happy.

[NYCTK]

The Twins FIP was 7th in the league last year. Their ERA was 21st. Impossible to assign blame for the reasons, but defense is a contributor. Not only that, but their defense had gotten much, much worse this offseason, particularly in the OF.

I was extremely worried about an OF defense of Larnach-Buxton-Wallner, with a 4th OF of Austin Martin? Considering Buxton is missing half the season, that had the potential for the worst OF defense in the league. Pair that with one of the highest FB pitching staffs in the league and bad things were apparent. 

Harrison Bader was THE smartest use of resources possible on February 5th. Squabble about the decisions that have led to this point all you want, but that's all history and sunk cost. 

[Blyleven2011]

Comparing Bader to the others is fine , I wish a more indepth comparison of free agent players signed early for same amount of money Bader may get with incentives could have been done  ...

How many in the same price range that could hit better and field just as well as bader signed in free agency earlier  , guess I'm off to FA tracker ...

Edited less than 10 minutes after posted ...

Wasn't much to compare in the price range of Bader  , the good ones got mega money and years , in other words ( out of price range ) ...

[Parfigliano]

By the timeline set up in this article Laureano, Grichuk, and Pham had already signed with other teams. 

The young TC players weren't going to block themselves so if you thought you needed a  RH outfielder Bader was what was left.  

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Comparing Bader to the others is fine , I wish a more indepth comparison of free agent players signed early for same amount of money Bader may get with incentives could have been done  ...

How many in the same price range that could hit better and field just as well as bader signed in free agency earlier  , guess I'm off to FA tracker ...

As far as I know we don't know what the incentives even are. So that would be foolish to try. If he gets a million dollars for MVP votes or a gold glove would you, or the Twins, really be all that disappointed if he got the extra cash? 

Harrison Bader was the only premium OF defender on the Free Agency market. So the answer to your question is no one. 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

My guess is a trade of Paddack is coming. If the Twins really are looking at backup infielders, maybe that means Castro is on the block too. I hope we keep him, he's too valuable to such an injury prone team like the Twins. I am hoping for a trade to acquire an offensive first baseman or Dylan Cease. As long as the trade doesn't hurt our lineup too much. 

Agree, except I would be more willing to include Castro in trade for upgrade at 1B.  He is one year from free agency, and you got to give something to get something.

[High heat]

I actually like the Bader signing and thought he was the Twins #1 choice last offseason but took a big deal with the Mets.  
 

I am worried $ wise that they are going to dump both Paddack and Castro.  
 

I was hoping they were going to keep Helman for the super utility role. But maybe new ownership has said to spend a little to push this team and Castro doesn’t get moved !!!  Here is to hoping.

[Doctor Gast]

I thought I'd look up Bader's highlights on YouTube for '24. Mainly what I saw was bloop hits, some HRs mainly solos & no defense. I looked up the defense, there were for past years but not last year. The main problem last season was the expensive outhouse Margot who was supposed to back up Buck. He was terrible to where we had to over-depend on Martin & Castro & blocked the access to Keirsey who could actually do a good job of subbing Buck.

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Bader. Is he going to turn into another Margot? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Keirsey blocks nobody, Bader blocks & limits our players playing time, especially Emma.

I don't care if he might be better than the other FAs. IMO Bader wasn't needed & he was overpaid (sounds familiar). Acquiring him most likely will force the Twins to trade someone they actually need. Don't the Twins think these things out?

[thelanges5]

Coulombe and Bader make us better. Still need to upgrade 1B, is there a trade forthcoming? Diaz, Mountcastle - they’d look great in a Twins City Connect uniform⚾️

[PatPfund]

Slower than Martin, and a worse hitter as a veteran than Martin was as a rookie (while being sporadically mis-used). This was a waste of money, and by mid-season I can already hear the crowd here clamoring to send off prospects for a healthy veteran pitcher like Pivetta or Quintana (who probably could have been signed with this coin).

This is THE worst tendency of this front office; frittering away resources on supposed values that just flush money and block the roster. Does Bader have a higher floor than Martin or Keirsey? Maybe, but then again the others have a much higher upside while Bader is past his.

If you keep signing players for their floor rather than use those with upside already in your system, you constantly operate with higher costs than you need to, restrict your ability to actually pursue a major acquisition (both by being tapped out and failing to develop your prospects to have real trade value), and you doom your team to mediocrity. 

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought I'd look up Bader's highlights on YouTube for '24. Mainly what I saw was bloop hits, some HRs mainly solos & no defense. I looked up the defense, there were for past years but not last year. The main problem last season was the expensive outhouse Margot who was supposed to back up Buck. He was terrible to where we had to over-depend on Martin & Castro & blocked the access to Keirsey who could actually do a good job of subbing Buck.

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Bader. Is he going to turn into another Margot? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Keirsey blocks nobody, Bader blocks & limits our players playing time, especially Emma.

I don't care if he might be better than the other FAs. IMO Bader wasn't needed & he was overpaid (sounds familiar). Acquiring him most likely will force the Twins to trade someone they actually need. Don't the Twins think these things out?

Only Twins Daily Fans would worry about blocking a 28 year old non prospect. People were saying this about Michael Helman too and now that he was just traded we know that his value was...a little bit of cash. And the same can be said for Keirsey.

 

[Road trip]

If the Twins felt signing a veteran Buxton backup was imperative, yes, Bader was preferable to the other options presented in the article.

But sometimes the wisest purchase is no purchase at all.  That's a good hunk of cash to spend on a player who will be (mostly) a corner outfielder who likely will be an offensive liability.  I think we all know Rocco is gonna find a way to play him 5 times a week, regardless of his offensive output, long past the time when this board will be calling for Bader's release.

If, in fact, Buxton is hurt for a substantial portion of the season, well, yes, the Twins will have a very capable defensive back up.  But due to Buxton's injury, it will probably be a lost year anyway. 

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Bader. Is he going to turn into another Margot? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Keirsey blocks nobody, Bader blocks & limits our players playing time, especially Emma.

I'll phrase that the opposite. We know exactly what we have in Bader, very dependable defense with limited potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Keirsey. Is he going to turn into another Celestino? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Bader blocks nobody except Keirsey, Keirsey has no safety net behind him if he fails.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought I'd look up Bader's highlights on YouTube for '24. Mainly what I saw was bloop hits, some HRs mainly solos & no defense. I looked up the defense, there were for past years but not last year. The main problem last season was the expensive outhouse Margot who was supposed to back up Buck. He was terrible to where we had to over-depend on Martin & Castro & blocked the access to Keirsey who could actually do a good job of subbing Buck.

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Bader. Is he going to turn into another Margot? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Keirsey blocks nobody, Bader blocks & limits our players playing time, especially Emma.

I don't care if he might be better than the other FAs. IMO Bader wasn't needed & he was overpaid (sounds familiar). Acquiring him most likely will force the Twins to trade someone they actually need. Don't the Twins think these things out?

Sorry Doc, gotta disagree with you here...

Bader blocks nobody.  He was signed strictly as Buxton defensive insurance.  The Twins view on Keirsey is pretty obvious as they kept running Margot out there last year with Keirsey on the wings.

Bader may or may not have been the Twins first choice, but IMO he was the best option of the four.  I am happy they avoided Tommy "Josh Donaldson V2.0 Clubhouse Cancer" Pham

[Heiny]

So let's figure Buxton gets 100 games, that leaves 62 games for Bader if he's healthy.  He probably gets another 30 games in a corner.  That's 92 games of plus defense.  I think that makes for a good signing.  If somehow we could get Mountcastle now I think it would look like a very exciting season coming up.  I may be a dreamer but hey I never even dreamed that we would sign Correa so there is that.

[rdehring]

Clear from the data that you presented, Nick, that Bader was the only choice.  The Twins need a reliable defensive center fielder to back up Buxton.  Of the four presented, Bader is the only one that can be that.

I like Keirsey and hope he gets a chance to prove he is what we hope/think he is, ie, a very good defensive center fielder who can steal some bases and be a solid hitter.  But we don't know if that is who he is.  So I understand the signing.  What I don't understand is allocating $6.25M for him.

As the Twins opened their checkbook this week I kept wondering.  Is it possible that they are very close to finalizing a deal to sell the team?  And if so, have they had conversations with the Buyer about adding a bit to payroll to improve the team in 2025?  If so, it appears the Buyer said go for it. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Only Twins Daily Fans would worry about blocking a 28 year old non prospect. People were saying this about Michael Helman too and now that he was just traded we know that his value was...a little bit of cash. And the same can be said for Keirsey.

 

The only thing that blocks any player, is the player himself, through not being good enough to make the  Bigs.

 

Maybe  Bader will have a Taylor year and set a career home run record for him.

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, rdehring said:

So I understand the signing.  What I don't understand is allocating $6.25M for him.

I think you guys just need to come to understand that is an entirely fair market value and not at all an overpay for a player like Bader. For the same reason Correa's $37 million is not actually an overpay and Pete Alonso struggled to get $30M. 

Bader received 4 million less than last season and the other OF free agents were paid less because they don't play a premium position and certainly don't play it well. 

[bean5302]

These two images above are why Bader was signed.

If Austin Martin made use of his tools, he'd be a 2 WAR full season center fielder, but Martin's reaction time is poor and his acceleration is below average. Martins instincts and situational awareness when fielding the ball are also poor. Bader uses his tools to their fullest, and historically (this is a bit concerning) he was quite a bit faster than Martin. Martin is not new to CF or outfield in general. 

DaShawn Keirsey's (.991/2.53) career fielding numbers in MiLB are arguably worse than Martin's (.995 FP, 2.62 RF/9), though it's very hard to compare the two fairly. What I can say with confidence is Keirsey's numbers in center field do not project him as a plus center fielder, IMHO. He doesn't grade out impressively vs. other center fielders in the same league with the metrics I have available.

The fact the Twins have cast off Michael Helman and signed Harrison Bader make it clear how they feel about Keirsey and Martin based on the scouting and coaching teams. The front office has determined neither is a viable starting CF option and the Twins absolutely need that because they know Buxton is very likely to be able to play only 60-80 games in CF.

[High heat]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

These two images above are why Bader was signed.

If Austin Martin made use of his tools, he'd be a 2 WAR full season center fielder, but Martin's reaction time is poor and his acceleration is below average. Martins instincts and situational awareness when fielding the ball are also poor. Bader uses his tools to their fullest, and historically (this is a bit concerning) he was quite a bit faster than Martin. Martin is not new to CF or outfield in general. 

DaShawn Keirsey's (.991/2.53) career fielding numbers in MiLB are arguably worse than Martin's (.995 FP, 2.62 RF/9), though it's very hard to compare the two fairly. What I can say with confidence is Keirsey's numbers in center field do not project him as a plus center fielder, IMHO. He doesn't grade out impressively vs. other center fielders in the same league with the metrics I have available.

The fact the Twins have cast off Michael Helman and signed Harrison Bader make it clear how they feel about Keirsey and Martin based on the scouting and coaching teams. The front office has determined neither is a viable starting CF option and the Twins absolutely need that because they know Buxton is very likely to be able to play only 60-80 games in CF.

Excellent  analysis!!! 

Im not a big Keirsey fan for this team because he hits left handed and doesn’t offer a replacement in game in the corner OF.  
 

I was not impressed by Martin with the bat and with the glove.  Him getting sent down late in the yr was a reflection of that. 

I was a big Michael Helman fan because he can play adequate defense everywhere both infield and OF.  (Similar to Castro defensively) I hope that means they are keeping Castro.  
 

Bader offers CF insurance along with a RH platoon and an in game pinch hitter/runner and defensive replacement for Wallner and or Larnach.  The versatility over the other 3 and coverage for multiple positions and scenarios was why he made the most sense and the most $.
 

Team has to get better defensively and stealing and taking the extra base in critical situations.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Only Twins Daily Fans would worry about blocking a 28 year old non prospect. People were saying this about Michael Helman too and now that he was just traded we know that his value was...a little bit of cash. And the same can be said for Keirsey.

 

The main player I'm concerned about is Emma, I don't look at age especially those who suffered from the covid canceled MiLB. I'm looking at the ability of the player, there's a lot of late bloomers for one reason or another have a late start but rake,  Keirsey should have his shot. I'm not talking about a long-term starting CF position, I'm talking about a short-term bench position that Keirsey can very well cover & we don't have to pay someone well over $7M, to block anyone or force us to trade someone that we need more than this position.

It's easy to overlook the small & insignificant. The Twins tend to this (or make something out of nothing). Castro wasn't supposed to be on the '23 team even though he had a good spring training, he was too small & insignificant. But he got his chance as a bench player & he was one of the reasons we did well in '23 & won the MVP in '24. That's all I'm asking for Keirsey. I saw something in Castro & I see something Keirsey. Sometimes the small & insignificant can make the difference. I'm not ashamed of my position of not going goo goo over big names or falling for their hype.

[Blyleven2011]

45 minutes ago, RpR said:

The only thing that blocks any player, is the player himself, through not being good enough to make the  Bigs.

 

Maybe  Bader will have a Taylor year and set a career home run record for him.

One can dream a dream or two  ...

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

So let's figure Buxton gets 100 games, that leaves 62 games for Bader if he's healthy.  He probably gets another 30 games in a corner.  That's 92 games of plus defense.  I think that makes for a good signing.  If somehow we could get Mountcastle now I think it would look like a very exciting season coming up.  I may be a dreamer but hey I never even dreamed that we would sign Correa so there is that.

I fear that 30 games in a corner is far too low a projection.  After all, Margot racked up over 100 in the corners and his fielding was very suspect.

I'll certainly not complain about the good defense, and defense has value.  However our lineup looks rather weak even without Bader in it, especially on the days that Vazquez catches.  I'll gladly trade offense for defense at catcher.  I'm pretty reluctant to do it for LF.  I think you can pretty much pencil Bader in for 400+ plate appearances.  That should be fun to watch...

[DocBauer]

If the objective for the FO was to have the best defensive CF option available to back up Buxton...while also providing help as a late inning defensive replacement in the corners...then they picked the right guy. 

The fact that he has some power and good speed and can help on the basepaths is a quality bonus. 

However, if they signed him to ALSO be a primary platoon partner or quasi starter for the OF corners, then they erred. He's just not a good hitter or OB% guy. 

I'm a supporter of Keirsey in the fact that he's athletic and offes a nice set of tools and only costs the minimum. I understand defensive metrics, and they are a valuable tool. But there's so many of them you can pick and choose at will. By all reports, Keirsey is a good to very good CF. He also has some power and speed and SB ability, and only costs the league minimum. What we don't know yet is how good or how bad he might hit ML pitching. And we don't know that because instead of cutting Margot in 2024 and letting Keirsey get a chance, the FO stuck with the poorly performing vet instead of giving the younger player a chance.

And as I've stated previously, I'm NOT hating Bader or his signing. I can see the value if he's used properly and his defense was the chief asset the FO wanted. There's some good things here.

But I can't help wonder if going with Keirsey...knowing Castro will play a little CF as well...and having a top prospect like Rodriguez close and already on the 40 man, and spending $5-6M on Grichuk wasn't the smarter move. 500 PA...not saying that's exactly what he'd get...Grichuk could rake against LHP and still be his career solid against RHP and provide 20 HR and 30 DBLs as a DH and part time corner OF. 

Is a drop on defense...arguably how much of a drop...without Bader as the backup CF but the better more powerful bat in Grichuk more of what the team/lineup really needed?

Edited February 7, 2025 by DocBauer
Typo

[bean5302]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The main player I'm concerned about is Emma...

Nobody is blocking Emmanuel Rodriguez. If Rodriguez continues to rake at AAA, the Twins will put him into the lineup. Larnach or Wallner can easily be moved to DH, which is a position the Twins don't honestly have anybody to play right now. Martin can easily be optioned.

That all assumes Larnach or Castro is even on the roster to open the season.

[NYCTK]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm talking about a short-term bench position that Keirsey can very well cover & we don't have to pay someone well over $7M

Great. What you're talking about is a cup of coffee when someone above him on the depth chart gets injured. He can still do that. 

He should not be depended on to be a 4th OF that is expected to play 100 games with 350-400 PAs. Not unless you're punting on the season. 

[Muppet]

Since the Twins won't be scoring more than 2 runs in most games, they are doing everything they can to keep the other team from scoring as well. Interesting strategy. 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively. We don't know what we'll get in Bader. Is he going to turn into another Margot? Keirsey will cost us nothing, Bader will cost us $6.25- 8.25M plus '26 buyout. Keirsey blocks nobody, Bader blocks & limits our players playing time, especially Emma.

I don't care if he might be better than the other FAs. IMO Bader wasn't needed & he was overpaid (sounds familiar). Acquiring him most likely will force the Twins to trade someone they actually need. Don't the Twins think these things out?

Keirsey will be 28 in May, and it wasn't until he was older than average at AA and AAA that he really started to hit - that's not super encouraging. He was 2 for 13 with the Twins last year, so his 'cup of coffee' was lukewarm at best. I suspect the Twins talent evaluators have had plenty of time to figure out what they have, given that he's been in the system since he was 21.