What Differentiated Harrison Bader from the Field of RH Outfield Bats?

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

But I can't help wonder if going with Keirsey...knowing Castro will play a little CF as well...and having a top prospect like Rodriguez close and already on the 40 man, and spending $5-6M on Grichuk wasn't the smarter move. 500 PA...not saying that's exactly what he'd get...Grichuk could rake against LHP and still be his career solid against RHP and provide 29 HR and 30 DBLs as a DH and part time corner OF. 

The man hit 12 HRs last year (same as Bader) and you think he could have hit 29 this year? He's 33 years old and has averaged a 101 OPS+  the last 4 seasons and his zips woba projection is 308, and you want to hire him, essentially, as a bat only player? 

I understand he's an archetype and you want a more reliable bat instead of a defense first player, and even if I disagree with that sentiment I feel the need to point out that none of these players got paid big money because none of them ARE reliable bats. Jesse Winker is perhaps the only bat first OF that is somewhat reliable and he got paid more than Bader for that reason. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Keirsey will be 28 in May, and it wasn't until he was older than average at AA and AAA that he really started to hit - that's not super encouraging. He was 2 for 13 with the Twins last year, so his 'cup of coffee' was lukewarm at best. I suspect the Twins talent evaluators have had plenty of time to figure out what they have, given that he's been in the system since he was 21.

Yep, and I think if he actually did have a great glove he would have a chance at playing time. But no one seems to believe he has anything but an adequate glove in CF. 

[thelanges5]

Someone get Larnach a first baseman’s mitt. Give him some time there in ST, he can rotate between LF, DH, and 1B until Emma comes up midsummer. After that he’s primarily 1B/DH. 

[DocBauer]

18 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The man hit 12 HRs last year (same as Bader) and you think he could have hit 29 this year? He's 33 years old and has averaged a 101 OPS+  the last 4 seasons and his zips woba projection is 308, and you want to hire him, essentially, as a bat only player? 

I understand he's an archetype and you want a more reliable bat instead of a defense first player, and even if I disagree with that sentiment I feel the need to point out that none of these players got paid big money because none of them ARE reliable bats. Jesse Winker is perhaps the only bat first OF that is somewhat reliable and he got paid more than Bader for that reason. 

Sorry, typo I just corrected. I meant to say 20 HR and absolutely NOT 29 HR. And he might not reach that, simply depending on playing time. But there's certainly room for a productive bat in the DH/OF area of the team. And I'll give you Grichuk is no guaranteed offering as a potential contributor in 2025, but he's still been over 100 OPS plus the past 2 years. And I'd wager his offensive production surpasses Bader at the end of the season. I'm simply wondering if he wouldn't have been a better choice, going offense vs defense, in this particular situation/signing.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Keirsey will be 28 in May, and it wasn't until he was older than average at AA and AAA that he really started to hit - that's not super encouraging. He was 2 for 13 with the Twins last year, so his 'cup of coffee' was lukewarm at best. I suspect the Twins talent evaluators have had plenty of time to figure out what they have, given that he's been in the system since he was 21.

13 ABs is not a cup of coffee, it's a sip. Unless maybe you're Royce  Lewis, very few do well in their 1st 13 ABs much less able to hit their 1st HR. Most good rookies take a prolonged time in MLB to start to get acclimated to MLB. He has yet to have that opportunity. Lewis didn't hit his 1st HR until around his 20th AB. Because of Keirsey's interruption in '20  & slow start, MN has written Keirsey off a long time ago. So whatever he does it doesn't matter because they have already formed their option. Their feeling seems to seep into the fanbase.

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

13 ABs is not a cup of coffee, it's a sip. Unless maybe you're Royce  Lewis, very few do well in their 1st 13 ABs much less able to hit their 1st HR. Most good rookies take a prolonged time in MLB to start to get acclimated to MLB. He has yet to have that opportunity. Lewis didn't hit his 1st HR until around his 20th AB. Because of Keirsey's interruption in '20  & slow start, MN has written Keirsey off a long time ago. So whatever he does it doesn't matter because they have already formed their option. Their feeling seems to seep into the fanbase.

It's not like he truly earned playing time in the majors. He hit pretty well in AAA, with a 119  RC+. But the fact of the matter is, so do plenty of people you can pick up off the waiver wire at any given point of the season (Andrew Stevenson?). Keirsey could have also earned time by being a great defender, unfortunately his glove is reportedly...serviceable. 

I feel bad for the guy, but it's not like he's getting screwed. Last season, I would agree that the Twins really screwed up by refusing to DFA Manuel Margot and giving him a chance to play. But not because he was good, but because Margot should have been DFAd in April as soon as Rocco realized he could not play a decent CF. 

But as for his career, Keirsey had to either hit more or field better in order to become a proper major leaguer. That's just his sad fate. AAAA player. 

[bean5302]

I'm super concerned at how these signings are going to take playing time away from Anthony Prato. I mean, he's earned playing time considering his 2023 was clearly proof he figured everything out and he was just a late bloomer.  I'm sure the .387 BABIP for Prato was going to hold consistent, just like that .370 BABIP for Keirsey is a sign of stable production.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

The man hit 12 HRs last year (same as Bader) and you think he could have hit 29 this year? He's 33 years old and has averaged a 101 OPS+  the last 4 seasons and his zips woba projection is 308, and you want to hire him, essentially, as a bat only player? 

I understand he's an archetype and you want a more reliable bat instead of a defense first player, and even if I disagree with that sentiment I feel the need to point out that none of these players got paid big money because none of them ARE reliable bats. Jesse Winker is perhaps the only bat first OF that is somewhat reliable and he got paid more than Bader for that reason. 

Taylor had his second best year as a Major League player with the Twins, bat wise, this dude could repeat as some of the vets they pick-up seem to shine with the Twins for at least one year.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

13 ABs is not a cup of coffee, it's a sip. Unless maybe you're Royce  Lewis, very few do well in their 1st 13 ABs much less able to hit their 1st HR. Most good rookies take a prolonged time in MLB to start to get acclimated to MLB. He has yet to have that opportunity. Lewis didn't hit his 1st HR until around his 20th AB. Because of Keirsey's interruption in '20  & slow start, MN has written Keirsey off a long time ago. So whatever he does it doesn't matter because they have already formed their option. Their feeling seems to seep into the fanbase.

Regardless anyone's opinion on Kiersey (or any "prospect"), it's long past the time when it might be reasonable to use "2020" as any kind of excuse or mitigating factor.

For anyone or anything.

It's  been 4 full seasons since,  ferpetesakes.

 

 

[thelanges5]

Bader contract details:

February 7: The Twins officially announced the Bader signing today. Per Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune, Bader gets a $750K signing bonus and $4MM salary this year, followed by a $1.5MM buyout on the mutual option, though that buyout can climb to $3MM based on plate appearances. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the buyout increases by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500. The option is valued at $10MM. There’s also a $500K assignment bonus if traded.

[Doctor Gast]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Regardless anyone's opinion on Kiersey (or any "prospect"), it's long past the time when it might be reasonable to use "2020" as any kind of excuse or mitigating factor.

For anyone or anything.

It's  been 4 full seasons since,  ferpetesakes.

 

 

You're right he's been hitting the last 2, for Pete sake. I was giving reason for delay which is very viable. It affected everybody, more those down the pecking order. Many didn't really make it back from the covid season.

Let me add that during WWII many young MiLBers went in to serve. They came out older & entered pro ball again & had good MLB careers. They did because they had character. Keirsey has character.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You're right he's been hitting the last 2, for Pete sake

About as well as a bunch of other guys that aren't really anything more than replacement level players. Guys like Dominic Fletcher.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

13 ABs is not a cup of coffee, it's a sip. Unless maybe you're Royce  Lewis, very few do well in their 1st 13 ABs much less able to hit their 1st HR. Most good rookies take a prolonged time in MLB to start to get acclimated to MLB. He has yet to have that opportunity. Lewis didn't hit his 1st HR until around his 20th AB. Because of Keirsey's interruption in '20  & slow start, MN has written Keirsey off a long time ago. So whatever he does it doesn't matter because they have already formed their option. Their feeling seems to seep into the fanbase.

I just want to say I generally agree on Keirsey, as well as the now departed Helman. Some guys make it, and some guys don't. 

My frustration is not that Keirsey and Helman would be great or even really good players. My frustration is that development is not linear. Sometimes guys fight injuries early on, or just take longer to "figure it out". The lost covid season didn't help a lot of those players to be sure. But when you draft players, and keep them, and then they suddenly start to figure it out and "shine", but you continue to play a Margot daily who simply looks "cooked" instead of cutting bait and take an honest look at what you MIGHT have in the system as a decent role player, THAT'S where my frustration comes in. 

It's entirely possible that the Twins see holes in swings and approach we just don't see. It's possible some of the positive reports we hear about are clouded by coaches who see these players every day and see something different. I don't know. I don't have an answer. But one of my few beefs against the FO is holding on to a poor veteran too long for what I can only describe as "depth paranoia" instead of giving a player, even an older one, a chance to see if they MIGHT be serviceable. IMO, Margot is a prime example where they should have just moved on and taken an honest look at someone like Keirsey. 

I'm just an amateur GM at best, but this remains an issue I have with the FO. Once in a while, when the older veteran stinks, it's time to look internally and just SEE if you have something or not. And that's not about Bader in itself. 

[mnfireman]

A little Bader highlight....

https://www.mlb.com/mets/video/tylor-megill-in-play-no-out-to-nick-senzel?q=bader error&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

[NYCTK]

16 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

A little Bader highlight....

https://www.mlb.com/mets/video/tylor-megill-in-play-no-out-to-nick-senzel?q=bader error&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

Cool. Here's some for the guys he's taking playing time away from: 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7d62d974-e14d-4cd6-a2c1-45744caeed2c

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=f05b0b55-2924-4a34-af8b-71448cca82df

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2fb5197b-ac56-4c8f-b63a-12b690818893

[rv78]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Bader contract details:

February 7: The Twins officially announced the Bader signing today. Per Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune, Bader gets a $750K signing bonus and $4MM salary this year, followed by a $1.5MM buyout on the mutual option, though that buyout can climb to $3MM based on plate appearances. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the buyout increases by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500. The option is valued at $10MM. There’s also a $500K assignment bonus if traded.

Those are some pretty safe buyout increases based on Buxtons history of being injured, which is every season and Roccos love to platoon at every wim. Bader or his agent were pretty smart to use plate appearances as the option. I was hoping the added money would be based on performance such as batting average or on base percentage. Nope, now he can be as awful as usual and still make extra money just for being there. Another bonehead move by the FO.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

13 ABs is not a cup of coffee, it's a sip. Unless maybe you're Royce  Lewis, very few do well in their 1st 13 ABs much less able to hit their 1st HR. Most good rookies take a prolonged time in MLB to start to get acclimated to MLB. He has yet to have that opportunity. Lewis didn't hit his 1st HR until around his 20th AB. Because of Keirsey's interruption in '20  & slow start, MN has written Keirsey off a long time ago. So whatever he does it doesn't matter because they have already formed their option. Their feeling seems to seep into the fanbase.

I didn't lead with the 13 ABs - the issue is he is going to be 28, and he really didn't start performing at AA and AAA until he was older than the competition. That isn't a formula that suggests MLB regular. You didn't address that.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I'm just an amateur GM at best, but this remains an issue I have with the FO. Once in a while, when the older veteran stinks, it's time to look internally and just SEE if you have something or not. And that's not about Bader in itself. 

The Twins have taken a shot on plenty of young players - Martin and Lee last year, Julien and Wallner the year before, Larnach the two years before that. That said, the Twins have put a premium on experience at key defensive positions - primarily SS, CF, and C. That doesn't strike me as an unsound preference.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Someone get Larnach a first baseman’s mitt. Give him some time there in ST, he can rotate between LF, DH, and 1B until Emma comes up midsummer. After that he’s primarily 1B/DH. 

I've wondered about Larnach at 1B as well. He's 6'4", so he'd have good reach. He's not a great arm in the OF, and that isn't really a need at 1B. 

[D.C Twins]

Great informative article Nick!

[roger]

See the Twins made room on the 40-man by selling Helman to St Louis and releasing Henriquez.  
 

What I noticed from those moves is Canterino is still a Twin.  Tells me the Twins remain high on this young man and believe he should be healthy.  I got my fingers crossed.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, roger said:

What I noticed from those moves is Canterino is still a Twin.  Tells me the Twins remain high on this young man and believe he should be healthy.  I got my fingers crossed.

I continue to be surprised that Canterino is on the roster.

[$tryf4Life]

10 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Only Twins Daily Fans would worry about blocking a 28 year old non prospect. People were saying this about Michael Helman too and now that he was just traded we know that his value was...a little bit of cash. And the same can be said for Keirsey.

 

Agreed, this site is obsessed with prospects. 

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, $tryf4Life said:

Agreed, this site is obsessed with prospects. 

The thing is...Keirsey isn't even an actual prospect! He's just some replacement level AAA player. 

[NYCTK]

31 minutes ago, roger said:

See the Twins made room on the 40-man by selling Helman to St Louis and releasing Henriquez.  
 

What I noticed from those moves is Canterino is still a Twin.  Tells me the Twins remain high on this young man and believe he should be healthy.  I got my fingers crossed.

Maybe they're just holding him for a bit until the can put him back on the 60. Opens in a few weeks! 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

. I was hoping the added money would be based on performance such as batting average or on base percentage. 

I'm reasonably confident these types of incentives aren't allowed.

Durability, or awards, ok.

Performance, not ok.

[AlLagoon]

Different sport, but I was watching the Winnipeg Jets knock off the NY Islanders on ESPN, Jets broadcast. The announcers were talking about an interview with one of the Jets defensemen. 

Apparently the Jets let a bunch of FA talent walk at the end of last season, and in the words of this guy, they trusted the young homegrown guys to fill the void, and they've responded to a league best record. 

They mentioned how the Jets had a family kind of feel, trusting the process of draft and develop, and made prospects feel a part of the team.

I would love to see the Twins do the same. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, NYCTK said:

About as well as a bunch of other guys that aren't really anything more than replacement level players. Guys like Dominic Fletcher.

If you are talking about DH or 1B, then yes, I'd agree with you. But not CF  

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

I didn't lead with the 13 ABs - the issue is he is going to be 28, and he really didn't start performing at AA and AAA until he was older than the competition. That isn't a formula that suggests MLB regular. You didn't address that.

I addressed everything, If you want me to address your idea that hitting in lower MiLB matters & hitting in higher MiLB does not, meet the formula to suggest a MLB regular. Then I say your idea is off. Lower minors mean nothing if they can hit there & everything depends on whether they hit in the upper MiLB to gauge a MLB candidate. 

Let me add that during WWII many MiLBers entered the war. They came back older & reentered pro ball. Many had successful MLB careers. They did because they had character. Keirsey has character. & that isn't found on the spreadsheet.

[miracleb]

Similar glove as Michael A Taylor.....but a WEAKER hitter.  Remember how this forum went after Taylor for his hitting?   Hope I'm wrong.....but you can probably double that for Bader.....