What Differentiated Harrison Bader from the Field of RH Outfield Bats?

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We know what we have in Keirsey, very dependable defense with good potential offensively

I am not confident of either.

Keirsey’s wRC+ in the minors is not a match for “good potential offensively”. It might if he were in AAA and 23. You could hope for a big step up. I don’t see it in the glove either. @bean5302 has done the work on this but his range factor numbers are very uninspiring. One or two mediocre seasons might be bad luck but it is throughout his minor leagues. Take a look at AAA the last two years. Austin Martin is getting to significantly more chances than Keirsey. I also didn’t get that impression watching some AAA games on TV. Balls that I thought could be outs were landing in front or to the side. Neither is a good measure or evidence that he is a liability but I don’t think “very dependable” is a fit either.

It was clear last year that Martin was not a passable center fielder yet. Keirsey is likely better but the bar for average major league center fielder is very high.  Keirsey might be mediocre in that group. Bader is among the best.

I think the question is whether that defense is worth devoting a bench spot to a veteran with that one plus skill or go with Martin/Keirsey hoping to get good enough play in CF and a comparable or better bat while spending the resources elsewhere,

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Let me add that during WWII many MiLBers entered the war. They came back older & reentered pro ball. Many had successful MLB careers. They did because they had character. Keirsey has character. & that isn't found on the spreadsheet.

Keirsey has been older than his competition from the beginning, but his OPS doesn't give much confidence he will perform well in MLB. Age 21 (older than competition) OPS was .798. Age 22 (older) .736. Age 23 (older) .733. COVID was age 23. Age 24 (older) .733. Age 25 (older) .724. Finally, at ages 26 and 27 (still older) he put up .821 and .845 respectively. 

Detect a pattern here? Any MLB regulars who put up pedestrian numbers through seven years in the minors? I can think of any Twin from the past who fits that profile. He is what he is - likely a AAA-fringe MLB player.

[Doctor Gast]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not confident of either.

Keirsey’s wRC+ in the minors is not a match for “good potential offensively”. It might if he were in AAA and 23. You could hope for a big step up. I don’t see it in the glove either. @bean5302 has done the work on this but his range factor numbers are very uninspiring. One or two mediocre seasons might be bad luck but it is throughout his minor leagues. Take a look at AAA the last two years. Austin Martin is getting to significantly more chances than Keirsey. I also didn’t get that impression watching some AAA games on TV. Balls that I thought could be outs were landing in front or to the side. Neither is a good measure or evidence that he is a liability but I don’t think “very dependable” is a fit either.

It was clear last year that Martin was not a passable center fielder yet. Keirsey is likely better but the bar for average major league center fielder is very high.  Keirsey might be mediocre in that group. Bader is among the best.

I think the question is whether that defense is worth devoting a bench spot to a veteran with that one plus skill or go with Martin/Keirsey hoping to get good enough play in CF and a comparable or better bat while spending the resources elsewhere,

IMO starting '24, Martin wasn't considered for the backup Buck-CF position & was considered more as the RH bat on the corners & his natural position 2B. Castro was kinda the LH replacement, so during spring training he didn't get the reps there as he should & after spring training Margot was acquired to be Buck's RH replacement. Margot was supposed be that great RH bat & glove. But he never panned out in either (so you can appreciate my skepticism) & Castro was busy most of the time elsewhere, So Martin was thrust into the CF role, He made some great plays & made rookie mistakes. I've stated many times before that Keirsey was a much better option than Martin at CF. Martin was chosen over him because of his RH bat. Baldelli noted that they'd give Martin more reps at CF at spring training, which is a good idea but now I doubt that'll happen. The sticker is they couldn't call up Keirsey because Margot had his roster spot.  It wasn't due to Keirsey's ability as a true CFer & offense. With Keirsey on the roster, IMO Martin shouldn't see any CF even if Bader wasn't around. So yes Keirsey's defense is well worth the bench spot that shouldn't be doubted & his hitting will come around to more than validate his worth.

[jorgenswest]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

So yes Keirsey's defense is well worth the bench spot that shouldn't be doubted & his hitting will come around to more than validate his worth.

Is it a given that his defense in center field is well worth a bench spot? I don’t know what that is based on. It must not be the on the eyes of the Twins staff that sees him every day. They have had a need and not turned to him. It certainly isn’t based in the limited data we have from his play in the minors. That data does not look like a player with good range.

I would like to be more confident in his glove but other than anecdotal reports I don’t know what to go on. Is the entire Twins staff so inept that they can’t see an above average major league defender in CF? Has he had a string of several years in the minors where he consistently had fewer opportunities in centerfield than his teammates leading to a lackluster RF/9? Austin Martin had minor league RF/9 numbers of 3.13 in 2023 and 3.24 in 2024. With the same teams Keirsey was 2.46 and 2.68. His best is 2.76. Maybe balls just don’t get hit his way when he is out there.

Help me with some data that points to a defense well worth a bench spot. I want it to be there. I don’t want the Twins continuing this cycle of decline phase stop gap free agents. With Emmanuel Rodriguez close, I would have gone with Keirsey/Martin/Castro with no expectation that any can play average major league level defense in CF. 

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm reasonably confident these types of incentives aren't allowed.

Durability, or awards, ok.

Performance, not ok.

Correct.

Quote

Incentives in contracts allow players to earn additional money by achieving certain predetermined benchmarks. Major League Baseball's Basic Agreement prohibits incentives from being awarded based on statistical achievement. Thus, playing time is the near-universal means by which players receive incentives. 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause

[David Maro]

Sorry but Bader is a Donaldson personality and doesn't fit the team. He believes he is a power hitter when they need the ball put in play. Probably could of given the spot to Keirsey. 

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Sorry but Bader is a Donaldson personality and doesn't fit the team. He believes he is a power hitter when they need the ball put in play. Probably could of given the spot to Keirsey. 

Having followed the Mets last year very closely...this is complete bull ****. 

 

[Parfigliano]

9 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Sorry but Bader is a Donaldson personality and doesn't fit the team. He believes he is a power hitter when they need the ball put in play. Probably could of given the spot to Keirsey. 

Where are you getting this Bader=Donaldson personality problem.  There was no talk that he was a problem as a NYM.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, High heat said:

I actually like the Bader signing and thought he was the Twins #1 choice last offseason but took a big deal with the Mets.  
 

I am worried $ wise that they are going to dump both Paddack and Castro.  
 

I was hoping they were going to keep Helman for the super utility role. But maybe new ownership has said to spend a little to push this team and Castro doesn’t get moved !!!  Here is to hoping.

At this point, unless Lee or Julien are sizzling at the plate in Spring Training, I see Castro as the nearly everyday guy at 2B (70%) until somebody displaces him with their offense. Keaschall & Lee both at AAA to start the season is very possible. Julien really needs to show something to be on roster!

[saviking]

23 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Slower than Martin, and a worse hitter as a veteran than Martin was as a rookie (while being sporadically mis-used). This was a waste of money, and by mid-season I can already hear the crowd here clamoring to send off prospects for a healthy veteran pitcher like Pivetta or Quintana (who probably could have been signed with this coin).

This is THE worst tendency of this front office; frittering away resources on supposed values that just flush money and block the roster. Does Bader have a higher floor than Martin or Keirsey? Maybe, but then again the others have a much higher upside while Bader is past his.

If you keep signing players for their floor rather than use those with upside already in your system, you constantly operate with higher costs than you need to, restrict your ability to actually pursue a major acquisition (both by being tapped out and failing to develop your prospects to have real trade value), and you doom your team to mediocrity. 

Keirsey would have been my choice. Better bat I believe if you give him some abats, faster I bet and possibly as good as Badder. Could be wrong but Keirsey is a hell of a lot cheaper. 

[JD-TWINS]

My feeling was Grichuk for offense v. LH pitching 100% (25% of games) ……….DH maybe 20% of the games…….PH 30 games (18% of games) ……..OF start v. RH pitching for rest or historical match-up advantage (15% of games) - he plays 75% of games for $5-$6M.

Kiersey as the CF back-up defender.

Castro at 2B & Martin as 5th OF ………either Julien or Lee starting year in AAA to get their bat right!

Bader flips some of that around ….. Kiersey seems to have no shot w/o injury……that’s OK, he’s a depth guy.

I just liked Grichuk’s bat so much better than Bader’s!!!

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

Keirsey has been older than his competition from the beginning, but his OPS doesn't give much confidence he will perform well in MLB. Age 21 (older than competition) OPS was .798. Age 22 (older) .736. Age 23 (older) .733. COVID was age 23. Age 24 (older) .733. Age 25 (older) .724. Finally, at ages 26 and 27 (still older) he put up .821 and .845 respectively. 

Detect a pattern here? Any MLB regulars who put up pedestrian numbers through seven years in the minors? I can think of any Twin from the past who fits that profile. He is what he is - likely a AAA-fringe MLB player.

Thank you arby58 for the debate, Maybe most fit into this pattern but my eye tells me his defense plays in the MLB & my gut tells me he's a late bloomer & deserves the chance to prove himself on the MLB level.

[saviking]

They are saying they are adding to our depth and now want to add to the depth at shortstop. But these guys can't be sent down and from past seasons they will refuse to cut any of these players until the season is over even if they don't perform. Ans they are pushing future Rwins back down to AAA. 

So, do what you're going tobdo but don't call them depth. Call them 25 man roster additions. 

[Schmoeman5]

10 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keirsey has character. & that isn't found on the spreadsheet.

I heard he does a great impersonation of Curly Howard. Now he was a character.

[Doctor Wu]

Martin was one of those high-draft prospects that oozed potential. But he's never really lived up to the hype and most people on this board are totally down on him. And as this graph shows, he does indeed have his flaws. So why haven't the Twins traded him away already? At this point, he doesn't see to serve much purpose on the team, especially if Castro is still around in another month.