The Stalled Development of Max Kepler and Miguel Sanó: What Went Wrong?

[Cody Christie]

Developing into a regular big-league player is challenging, and some player’s skill sets are better suited to becoming above-average regulars. For two former Twins players, their story is one of stalled development. So, what went wrong?

 

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins made headlines in 2009 when they signed a pair of international teenagers who quickly became cornerstones of their top-ranked farm system. Max Kepler, a lanky outfielder from Germany, and Miguel Sanó, a Dominican phenom with prodigious power, were tabbed as future stars destined to lead the Twins into a new era of success. As top prospects, their development was closely watched, and their MLB debuts brought with them waves of optimism. However, as their Twins tenures unfolded, neither player lived up to the lofty expectations set during their formative years. Instead, their careers tell the tale of unfulfilled potential and stalled development.

Max Kepler: The Enigma of Consistency
Kepler’s Twins tenure was a puzzle. From his debut in 2015, his athleticism and defensive acumen stood out. He became one of the league’s premier defenders in right field, routinely saving runs and earning high marks from advanced metrics. But his offense, despite flashes of brilliance, never found the consistency needed to make him a true star.

The 2019 season appeared to be Kepler’s breakout campaign. He slugged 36 home runs, posted a .855 OPS, and finished with down-ballot MVP votes for the AL Central-winning Twins. However, context matters. That year saw baseballs flying out of ballparks at a historic rate, leading many to question whether Kepler’s power surge was sustainable. Unfortunately, the following seasons provided the answer: it wasn’t.

A deep dive into Kepler’s offensive profile shows a player who never fully realized his potential at the plate. His career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) consistently hovered well below league average, fueling speculation that he might be plagued by bad luck. His career BABIP of .258 is 38 points below the MLB average. Yet, year after year, his BABIP stubbornly resisted normalization, suggesting that Kepler’s issues stemmed from something more intrinsic. A pull-heavy approach and frequent weak contact limited his ability to adjust when pitchers exploited his tendencies.

Despite his elite defense and occasional power surges, Kepler’s offensive shortcomings turned him into a league-average hitter rather than the cornerstone the Twins envisioned. Being league average has value, but expectations were higher for Kepler.

Miguel Sanó: A Tale of Power and Whiffs
If Kepler’s career has been a story of steady mediocrity, Sanó’s has been one of extreme peaks and valleys. After finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2015, Sanó appeared destined for stardom. His raw power was unmatched, and his ability to drive the ball to all fields made him a terrifying presence in the batter’s box. By 2017, he earned an All-Star nod and mashed 28 home runs in 114 games. But even then, cracks were beginning to show.

Sanó’s strikeout rate was always a concern but ballooned to unsustainable levels in subsequent seasons. He struck out in 44% of his plate appearances in 2020 and has compiled a 36.5 K% in his big-league career. While he continued to hit mammoth home runs, his inability to make consistent contact prevented his power from translating into sustained offensive value. Opposing pitchers exploited his weaknesses, and Sanó’s approach at the plate offered little in the way of adjustments.

Defensively, Sanó’s struggles compounded his offensive issues. Initially pegged as a third baseman, he was eventually moved across the diamond to first base, where his defensive shortcomings were less glaring but still noticeable. From 2020-22, he combined for a 101 OPS+ with 298 strikeouts in 808 PA with a 0.1 WAR. By the end of his tenure with the Twins, Sanó’s liabilities in the field and at the plate made it difficult to justify his place on the roster.

Unfulfilled Promise
Both Kepler and Sanó brought value to the Twins during their careers, but neither reached the ceiling once projected for them as teenage phenoms. Kepler’s defense and Sanó’s power were undeniable assets, but the inability to pair those strengths with consistent offensive production kept them from ascending to superstardom.

The Twins’ decision to sign both players in 2009 represented a bold investment in international scouting and player development. That investment paid dividends to an extent, as both were key contributors to playoff teams. However, the careers of Kepler and Sanó stand as reminders of how difficult it is to translate potential into sustained success at the big-league level.

As the Twins look toward the future, the lessons of Kepler and Sanó’s stalled development loom large. Prospect hype is tantalizing, but the path from teenage phenom to franchise cornerstone is fraught with challenges. For Kepler and Sanó, their journeys underscore the thin line between good and great in Major League Baseball.

What stands out about the Twins tenures of Kepler and Sanó? How can the Twins avoid similar stalled development with current top prospects? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[old nurse]

A dive into the why of Kepler would end up behind the paywall. 

Sano did not seem interested in being an elite athlete in an era where sustained success was going to require work. Hopefully he did a decent job of saving money 

[tony&rodney]

Max Kepler was a decent player for the Twins. He never rose to All Star status, managing just to be a regular in the lineup. Perhaps Max is a poster for how hard it is to excell at baseball in the major leagues. The fans always expected and wanted more from Kepler than he could produce. I believe he was a solid player for the Twins. We just wanted much more.

Miguel Sano was an enigma. The power was alluring. 2015 was his best performance. There were a host of issues that likely began with his recruitment. Sadly, Sano never managed to level out or improve enough to carve out a decade in MLB. The turbulence surrounding Miguel always seemed a little much, maybe unfair or fair-I don't know, and he never managed to get settled. I hope he has found contentment and peace in his life. 

[Blyleven2011]

There's good reason that the prospects are failing , especially since this current FO has taken over ...

I've said it many times , the prospects in the minors are very capable of playing baseball and developing their skills for minor league baseball  , but once in the major leagues it seems like our manager and coaches don't emphasize enough fundamentals to play the game the right way  ...

At the major leagues level you still have to teach , take the talent that you have and make the talent better , fix their weaknesses so they can stay in the show , Kepler and Sano are only 2 examples , they were on the team to long , where other teams would have given up on them long before ....

Other prospects are coming up and have had decent minor league stats but haven't shown us any real value yet , YOU just can't tell the young man to just go out and play the game , the player has to take the field  with the right mental approach and preparation  ...

We have more than enough coaches , more than we have ever had , why aren't we getting the results that we should be seeing ...

I rest my case , coaching at the major league level is a must , name of the game is pitching , hitting , fielding and no injuries please  ...

[NYCTK]

Wondering what went wrong with a player that was never a top end prospect but still became a 20 WAR player just tells me the only thing wrong was unfair expectations. 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't have a problem with either player. The problem in looking back at the career of both players for me is in the Propaganda Machine.

Kepler, he produced 21 WAR and a 102 OPS+ league average bat with very good defense. He was a bargain as far as his pay went. Was he frustrating at times? Sure. But to get an overall above average player for 10 years is hard to beat. It's the propaganda that insisted he was a superstar caliber player. Max did nothing wrong here.

Sano, his 2015-21 numbers in the FA world today would net him a 20mil contract. His numbers were close to those of Alonzo. I would attribute his downfall to the organization. The one that insisted that he be a 3B, and a horrible failure in LF, instead of making him a 1B from the start. I get Joe was at 1B thru '18. But Joe could have DHed more to allow Sano to take over 1B. Joe could have played some RF. This is on the org, Sano played where he was told. My bet is had he been able to focus on the bat and 1B it would have made a great difference in his offense. When all was said and done Sano owed the org nothing. They got their moneys worth out of him. The propaganda was no benefit to Sano either. Neither does it help the Kiriloff's or the Larnach's or Lee either.

[Doctor Gast]

Many Twins' developments are disappointing. Where the focus has mainly been focused on hitting HRs & the rest including SOs have been ignored. '19 the juiced ball, the HR focus really took off but unfortunately, after '19, MN was fed dead balls that hindered Sanos & Kepler's success as far as offensively. Sano was the poster child for the Twins' "Moonshot" propaganda but he became more & more SO prone w/o the HRs to compensate. Many of Kepler's HRs became FOs & the shift really took a toll on his performance.

[twinstalker]

Probably the Twins hitting development is just not good.  But I believe the Twins don't have a clue what to look for in a hitter.  They stumble on an Arraez or Keaschall every once in a while, but for the most part they don't value low strikeout rates, guys that don't chase, who recognize breaking balls.  Guys who eventually have great ABs at the MLB level and are really hard outs for the best pitchers.

Arraez is someone like that.  We've seen glimpses of Correa being that for short periods (month, two months).  I think Keaschall and maybe Eeles will provide that.

This is hazy anecdotal, but I keep hearing Twins hitters talk about their development mostly as getting their pitch to hit, and it seems Twins hitters are being taught to guess when that pitch is coming.  Forever.

The Yankees can buy anyone they want, but they value hitters who are able to recognize pitches.  Be able to lay off balls, be able to fight off strikes that aren't the meatballs they'll soon be served up by the Twins pitchers.  They develop that, too.  Getting a hitter like Sano is great if he can develop those things on his own.  He couldn't, and the Twins needed to recognize that so that they could deal his prodigious power at the appropriate time.

If you can't develop it, you need to trade it before it becomes obvious at the MLB level.

[sweetmusicviola16]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Many Twins' developments are disappointing. Where the focus has mainly been focused on hitting HRs & the rest including SOs have been ignored. '19 the juiced ball, the HR focus really took off but unfortunately, after '19, MN was fed dead balls that hindered Sanos & Kepler's success as far as offensively. Sano was the poster child for the Twins' "Moonshot" propaganda but he became more & more SO prone w/o the HRs to compensate. Many of Kepler's HRs became FOs & the shift really took a toll on his performance.

When a player "fails" to develop, is it A. the player, B. the organization, C. the propaganda and hype that failed? Sadly this article mirrors the consensus, the player gets almost the entire block of blame. Kepler imo was a very valuable piece for the Twins for most of his 10 years with the team. There was marginal failure. The propaganda may be the biggest failure. In Sano's case the organization failed as much as he did, likely more so.  They signed him as a SS to start. He played SS. They moved him to 3B. He played third. Sent him to LF. He went. He never became comfortable at 3B and the team couldn't see this. They told him to hit HR's, which is what he focused on. But as you mentioned he became prone to the SO because of this. The org dropped the ball but gets little of the blame for it.

[mnfireman]

I don't think Kepler was ever hyped as anything but what he was, a league average hitter with above average fielding. He also publicly stated he had no interest in playing CF, maybe he privately had no interest in learning to hit to all fields to try to beat the shift...

Sano came through the organization with the "Superstar" tag attached to him. He outgrew SS when his frame filled out, then he outgrew MLB when his lack of work ethic and non-lack of appetite fully kicked in.

And Sano's numbers from 15-21 (8.4 bWAR, 119 OPS+. 161 HR, 415 RBI over 7 seasons) are nowhere near/don't compare to Alonso's numbers from 19-24 (19.8 bWAR, 134 OPS+, 226 HR, 586 RBI over 6 seasons).

[TwinsDr2021]

I think this article is kind of silly, Both of these players have been two of the better performing top prospects in 20 years (not that they have a lot in the last 12 or so years), Sano has/had a career OPS+ of 115 and Kepler has a career WAR over 20, if the Twins got this type of production from even half of their top 5 type prospects it would be amazing. It does suck they didn't turn into HOF type players but other top 5 guys like Hicks, Revere, Arcia, Rosario, Benson, Gordon, Larnach, AK, Javier, Martin, Julien, and even Lewis and Miranda make these two look Amazing. The only top hitting prospect since 2011 that can give these two a run for their money is Buxton.

 

 

[HelmetTip]

I always enjoyed watching Kepler play, but IMHO he wasn't used corrected. Baldelli et al often had Max in the leadoff spot, or cleanup, or another critical spot in the lineup. I believe that if Kepler had contributed like he always has, but hit regularly in the 6-8 holes, he'd have been looked upon much more favorably. Because he'd have added value at the bottom of the lineup, & often did not where he ended up being placed. 

 

[Parfigliano]

8 minutes ago, HelmetTip said:

I always enjoyed watching Kepler play, but IMHO he wasn't used corrected. Baldelli et al often had Max in the leadoff spot, or cleanup, or another critical spot in the lineup. I believe that if Kepler had contributed like he always has, but hit regularly in the 6-8 holes, he'd have been looked upon much more favorably. Because he'd have added value at the bottom of the lineup, & often did not where he ended up being placed. 

 

Kepler as leadoff was comical

[ashbury]

50 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Kepler as leadoff was comical

By my memory, this managerial strategy was an aberration, as though the team was trying to encourage Max to bring out other parts of his game besides just the homers.  Turns out, thanks to a glance at bb-ref.com, he moved around quite a bit in the batting order but the single greatest number of plate appearances he had during his career so far has been at... leadoff.  (By a small margin.)  Not an aberration or momentary whim at all.

But here's the funny thing.  Guess where he achieved his best OPS during his career.  Right, at leadoff.  .810, and he didn't top .800 batting anywhere else.

There's statistical bias in this, plus chicken-and-egg - was Max surprisingly comfortable at the top of the order, or did the manager put him there when only he thought Max was going well?  Who knows.  But Leadoff Kepler was nowhere near the fiasco that Leadoff Margot turned ou-... hey, wait, not to threadjack or anything, but guess what Manuel Margot's OPS was as a leadoff hitter for the Twins?  .832.  Gimme more of that L/R leadoff platoon please.  😀

[sweetmusicviola16]

Sano for sure had weight problems. Did he have a "lack of work ethic?" I didn't see that at all. What I did see was a guy that did what he was asked to do by the organization. I don't feel bad for Miguel. He made his millions. Now he's long gone. But what is left behind is the same organizational problems.

[bean5302]

Kepler will finish his career in the top 5% of MLB players all time at somewhere in that 25-30 career WAR range. He's in the top 20 of position players to ever wear a Twins jersey. Asking where it went wrong seems pretty crazy.

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Wondering what went wrong with a player that was never a top end prospect but still became a 20 WAR player just tells me the only thing wrong was unfair expectations. 

 

I came here to say something similar. Kepler is a huge success, but then, this site is filled with unbelievably bad takes this off season, in an attempt to get readers?

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Kepler as leadoff was comical

While not an ideal lead-off man, he wasn't bad; .235/.325/.485 (.810 OPS) 49 HR 111 RBI 151/95 K/BB ratio over  877 PAs. The K, BB, HR, RBI, SLG and OPS are his highest at any spot he has batted (and he batted in all 9 spots over his career, though lead-off was the most).

[Joe A. Preusser]

Are you all kidding me with these takes?

Kepler is an average hitter and above average defender.  Great player to have on your team, especially at the contracts we gave him.  What hype train are people referring to?  The Twins Daily poster expectation hype train?  I have always seen and appreciated Max for what he is.  Come on.  

And now everyone wants to give Sano a pass and blame the organization for his failures?  Give me a break.  At various times throughout his career here he was an easy choice for Twins Daily public enemy #1.  Constantly out of shape, lots of off field troubles, inability to somehow simultaneously not catch up to fastballs OR recognize off-speed stuff.  The Twins org is by no means perfect, but blaming them for Sano's inability to have a strong, sustainable career is laughable.  

And stop railing on our coaching.  Yes, we make too many fundamental mistakes on the field, and it is infuriating.  But extrapolating that out to mean we don't develop MLB players is ridiculous.  Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Carlos Santana, Bailey Ober,  Ryan Jeffers, Matt Walner...all developed with us or got better once joining our organization.  Just off the very top of my head.  

[Parfigliano]

45 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Are you all kidding me with these takes?

Kepler is an average hitter and above average defender.  Great player to have on your team, especially at the contracts we gave him.  What hype train are people referring to?  The Twins Daily poster expectation hype train?  I have always seen and appreciated Max for what he is.  Come on.  

And now everyone wants to give Sano a pass and blame the organization for his failures?  Give me a break.  At various times throughout his career here he was an easy choice for Twins Daily public enemy #1.  Constantly out of shape, lots of off field troubles, inability to somehow simultaneously not catch up to fastballs OR recognize off-speed stuff.  The Twins org is by no means perfect, but blaming them for Sano's inability to have a strong, sustainable career is laughable.  

And stop railing on our coaching.  Yes, we make too many fundamental mistakes on the field, and it is infuriating.  But extrapolating that out to mean we don't develop MLB players is ridiculous.  Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Carlos Santana, Bailey Ober,  Ryan Jeffers, Matt Walner...all developed with us or got better once joining our organization.  Just off the very top of my head.  

I totally 100% blame Sano for Sano.  He was lazy.

[HerbieFan]

Always seemed pretty simple.  Max Kepler was a solid major league player, nothing more.  Really good defensively and mostly slightly below average offensively.  And that's ok.  With Sano it just seemed to come down to hard work...seemed like most springs he came in out of shape.  

[KGB]

21 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Wondering what went wrong with a player that was never a top end prospect but still became a 20 WAR player just tells me the only thing wrong was unfair expectations. 

 

Twins won 82 games last years, right around national expectation .Payroll highest in division. Are fans who are disappointed just having unfair expectations on the team and ownership?

Having lower expectations for individual players but high expectations for ownership and the team doesn't work.

 

[NYCTK]

46 minutes ago, KGB said:

Twins won 82 games last years, right around national expectation .Payroll highest in division. Are fans who are disappointed just having unfair expectations on the team and ownership?

Having lower expectations for individual players but high expectations for ownership and the team doesn't work.

 

How dare fans want ownership to put together a team that can advance at least to the ALCS more than once in 33 years. 

This comparison is, frankly, ridiculous. If you're disappointed with Kepler, you'll almost never be satisfied by any player short of an actual Hall of Famer. If I were to guess, you were one of the hoards of fans criticizing Joe for not being an MVP candidate every season. Calling him an overpaid bum. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Yeah... Not sure why you are lumping Kepler in with Sano (clickbait?).

Sano's issues are well documented: unwilling to to put the work in, weight issues, injuries compounded by both of those things.  Management not reading the tea leaves and bouncing him around on the field did not help.

For some reason many people on this site have a lot of hate for Kepler.  Not sure why.  Fantastic defense, good-enough offense, 10 years with the team.  Every team needs players like this.

[Otaknam]

Sano looked like a young Miguel Cabrera when he arrived. Great power and the ability and willingness to drive the ball in all directions. Then he got pull happy with an all or nothing approach, but the team couldn’t get him to change his approach or did not care if he did. I expect it was the former. And his weight and lack of conditioning was also an issue, and it could be argued that he ate himself out of the league.

[Otaknam]

Just curious. Why does this site require an explanation for editing a posting? What difference does it make if it is a spelling or grammar, or just wanting to add another comment?

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I don't have a problem with either player. The problem in looking back at the career of both players for me is in the Propaganda Machine.

Kepler, he produced 21 WAR and a 102 OPS+ league average bat with very good defense. He was a bargain as far as his pay went. Was he frustrating at times? Sure. But to get an overall above average player for 10 years is hard to beat. It's the propaganda that insisted he was a superstar caliber player. Max did nothing wrong here.

Sano, his 2015-21 numbers in the FA world today would net him a 20mil contract. His numbers were close to those of Alonzo. I would attribute his downfall to the organization. The one that insisted that he be a 3B, and a horrible failure in LF, instead of making him a 1B from the start. I get Joe was at 1B thru '18. But Joe could have DHed more to allow Sano to take over 1B. Joe could have played some RF. This is on the org, Sano played where he was told. My bet is had he been able to focus on the bat and 1B it would have made a great difference in his offense. When all was said and done Sano owed the org nothing. They got their moneys worth out of him. The propaganda was no benefit to Sano either. Neither does it help the Kiriloff's or the Larnach's or Lee either.

You make some interesting comments.  I don't think Kepler was a disappointment.  He had a solid career.  Sano, on the other hand, would not have mattered where he played.  He was constantly out of shape.  Why?  Who knows.  From where I sit, Sano did not have a committed and professional approach.  Sano's disappointment is on him.

[KGB]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

How dare fans want ownership to put together a team that can advance at least to the ALCS more than once in 33 years. 

This comparison is, frankly, ridiculous. If you're disappointed with Kepler, you'll almost never be satisfied by any player short of an actual Hall of Famer. If I were to guess, you were one of the hoards of fans criticizing Joe for not being an MVP candidate every season. Calling him an overpaid bum. 

When you have a 90% chance for the playoffs in the middle of August and don't make the playoffs, that's due to the player/coaching, not ownership. 

Lowering expectations for the players and always blaming ownership is lazy. Calling out under preforming players is not having unrealistic expectations.

Funny comparison in next level player to Kepler is a HOF player.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, KGB said:

When you have a 90% chance for the playoffs in the middle of August and don't make the playoffs, that's due to the player/coaching, not ownership. 

Lowering expectations for the players and always blaming ownership is lazy. Calling out under preforming players is not having unrealistic expectations.

Funny comparison in next level player to Kepler is a HOF player.

And what about the other 31 seasons? 

No one is really discussing lower expectations for Kepler. We're just pointing out the fact that a mid tier prospect becoming a 20 WAR player is a very good outcome actually, and anyone disappointed is completely unreasonable. 

You're allowed to be disappointed with particular moments, or at-bats, where he failed to come through. Absolutely. That's part of being a fan. But if you're taking a look at his Twins career and come away with the conclusion that he didn't live up to your expectations, I'm sorry, but you're a bad fan and you will always be disappointed. 

Perhaps you should go cheer for the Dodgers.  

[stringer bell]

15 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I totally 100% blame Sano for Sano.  He was lazy.

I think a lot of people are using "lazy" for fat. Kent Hrbek, Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew don't get shamed for being fat because they kept performing. Sanó plateaued (or worse) in his 20s

Did he plateau because he gained weight? I don't think so. He swung and missed at way too many balls in the strike zone. His plate discipline was okay (not great), but when you get beat on balls in the zone, it opens everything up. On the occasions when he was punishing strikes, he was a real slugger, but those occasions proved to be too rare. He wasn't a good defender anywhere he was put despite a really strong arm, so he had to hit.