The Stalled Development of Max Kepler and Miguel Sanó: What Went Wrong?

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

For some reason many people on this site have a lot of hate for Kepler.  Not sure why.  Fantastic defense, good-enough offense, 10 years with the team.  Every team needs players like this.

I don't have hate for Kepler. He was an okay player that never took the next step, although it looked like it in 2019 until he was hurt at the tail end of the season. When he came up, I thought he would be a much higher percentage hitter and that never really happened. His best batting average came in 2023 and was only .260. The power was intermittent and although he had well above average speed, he never developed as a threat on the bases. The last couple of years, he was so conservative on the bases that it hurt the team IMHO.

I've read the criticism often that the Twins want guys to pull the ball and hit home runs. I don't believe that to be totally true and I don't think it ruined many players, but if it hurt someone I think it is Kepler. He just didn't hit enough long balls consistently to justify all the pop flies and grounders to second. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Just curious. Why does this site require an explanation for editing a posting? What difference does it make if it is a spelling or grammar, or just wanting to add another comment?

It has a box allowing you to name why you are editing, but filling in that box isn't required. Try tweaking your post somehow, but don't fill in that box and see if it still saves. 

[bean5302]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think a lot of people are using "lazy" for fat. Kent Hrbek, Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew don't get shamed for being fat because they kept performing. Sanó plateaued (or worse) in his 20s

Did he plateau because he gained weight? I don't think so. He swung and missed at way too many balls in the strike zone. His plate discipline was okay (not great), but when you get beat on balls in the zone, it opens everything up. On the occasions when he was punishing strikes, he was a real slugger, but those occasions proved to be too rare. He wasn't a good defender anywhere he was put despite a really strong arm, so he had to hit.

Sano's legs literally broke because he had gained so much weight so quickly and he was so sedentary. Sano developed stress reactions while the Twins wanted him to play RF in 2016. Stress reactions are not acute injuries, yet plenty of his fans tried to play it off as a result of being hit by a pitch on the shin which is impossible. Stress reactions happen from ramping up too quickly when the body hasn't adapted. It's a common injury for new runners.

Sano was lazy. He shirked his responsibilities, hired his unqualified sister to be his "nutritionist," and he was often thoughtless about his behavior. Every single offseason there was another problem. I remember every year as a prospect as Sano ballooned in size, he'd make quotes about how the Twins want him bigger for power so it was good that he was gaining weight. Both Molitor and Baldelli became disgusted with Sano's conditioning and shipped him off to Ft. Myers to lose weight after Sano reached pro-ball. Sano showed up every year to Spring Training rocking like a 300lb frame because he didn't work out or eat right in the offseason. From a guy with quick reflexes and a cannon arm who was expected to excel at 3B to a player who couldn't make even routine plays reliably at 1B due to weight and lack of effort, it was the whole nine yards with that guy.

[KGB]

54 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And what about the other 31 seasons? 

No one is really discussing lower expectations for Kepler. We're just pointing out the fact that a mid tier prospect becoming a 20 WAR player is a very good outcome actually, and anyone disappointed is completely unreasonable. 

You're allowed to be disappointed with particular moments, or at-bats, where he failed to come through. Absolutely. That's part of being a fan. But if you're taking a look at his Twins career and come away with the conclusion that he didn't live up to your expectations, I'm sorry, but you're a bad fan and you will always be disappointed. 

Perhaps you should go cheer for the Dodgers.  

Thank You for clarifying when fans are allowed to be disappointed..

Ownership to blame if not winning World Series, very disappointing.. 2 WAR players, never disappointing. Got it.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, KGB said:

Thank You for clarifying when fans are allowed to be disappointed..

Ownership to blame if not winning World Series, very disappointing.. 2 WAR players, never disappointing. Got it.

You sound like a Yankees fan TBH. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yeah... Not sure why you are lumping Kepler in with Sano (clickbait?).

Sano's issues are well documented: unwilling to to put the work in, weight issues, injuries compounded by both of those things.  Management not reading the tea leaves and bouncing him around on the field did not help.

For some reason many people on this site have a lot of hate for Kepler.  Not sure why.  Fantastic defense, good-enough offense, 10 years with the team.  Every team needs players like this.

because their time with the twins overlapped significantly as international signings? moreover, people (around here at least) fairly consistently compared their contributions to the twins from 2016-2022, especially in like 2021, where people gave Kepler a pass at the plate and complained about Sano all the time.

Kepler's an interesting case, where the Twins got a ton of value out of him and he had a fine career here, but the 2019 season was such an outlier that it was easy to keep wondering why that never happened again, or to expect that he could do it over. Kepler also always looked great out there: big, strong, fast with a lovely looking swing. He ended up being a solid starter, but it often felt like there was more to unlock that simply never happened.

Sano's biggest problem was the injuries. (The decision to try and move him to the OF in 2016 was also remarkably dumb) Add that to his already not great defense and suddenly he's stuck at DH in order to just get on the field, but even then, the leg injuries took his base out from under him. (I'm a little amazed he managed to hit as much as he did in 2021). The weight problems didn't help, I'm sure. The decision to try him in RF after never playing there in order to get more time for Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (immortals all) at 3B? If ever there was a developmental mistake it was that one.

I think if sano's seasons had been in a different order, people would feel better about him. They're probably wouldn't treat his injuries as personal failings as much if he'd had 2015, 2017, and 2019 all in a row and then had the major knee injury and a fall off. but who knows. The fact that he struck out a lot will always stick in the craw for some Twins fans.

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Kepler's an interesting case, where the Twins got a ton of value out of him and he had a fine career here, but the 2019 season was such an outlier that it was easy to keep wondering why that never happened again

It was a juiced ball. That's why he wasn't able to do it again. And he kind of did do it again, effectively matching his '19 OPS+ with his '23 season. 

 

[KGB]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You sound like a Yankees fan TBH. 

Minnesota sports fan for over 60 years. I do have an appreciation for the owners who have brought the only major  professional sports championships (sorry Lynx fans) to Minnesota. I wish they had done more, but feel players have also can be held to standards.

Much like I bet Yankee and Dodgers fan feel. So I accept the comparison as a compliment.

 

[Greglw3]

On 1/13/2025 at 9:41 AM, tony&rodney said:

Max Kepler was a decent player for the Twins. He never rose to All Star status, managing just to be a regular in the lineup. Perhaps Max is a poster for how hard it is to excell at baseball in the major leagues. The fans always expected and wanted more from Kepler than he could produce. I believe he was a solid player for the Twins. We just wanted much more.

Miguel Sano was an enigma. The power was alluring. 2015 was his best performance. There were a host of issues that likely began with his recruitment. Sadly, Sano never managed to level out or improve enough to carve out a decade in MLB. The turbulence surrounding Miguel always seemed a little much, maybe unfair or fair-I don't know, and he never managed to get settled. I hope he has found contentment and peace in his life. 

 I think after the HR success of 2019 that Kepler got into pull happy mode and that destroyed his offensive game.

It may be worth noting that 3 players who have taken a dive in their offense due to the Twins over emphasis on Home Runs, launch angle, launch speed, may include Kepler, Sano, Austin Martin (who’s hitting cratered when he changed his swing as prescribed by the Twins for more power and hitting recovered when he went back to his old approach). 

Noteworthy too that the Twins over emphasis on HR has lead to some dreadful strikeout totals the last 5 years and to a horrific signing of Joey Gallo, he of the .177 batting average and near 50% K rate.

[laloesch]

On 1/13/2025 at 10:06 AM, old nurse said:

A dive into the why of Kepler would end up behind the paywall. 

Sano did not seem interested in being an elite athlete in an era where sustained success was going to require work. Hopefully he did a decent job of saving money 

Exactly.  To put it bluntly Sano was lazy and difficult to coach.

[laloesch]

19 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Sano's biggest problem was the injuries. (The decision to try and move him to the OF in 2016 was also remarkably dumb) Add that to his already not great defense and suddenly he's stuck at DH in order to just get on the field, but even then, the leg injuries took his base out from under him. (I'm a little amazed he managed to hit as much as he did in 2021). The weight problems didn't help, I'm sure. The decision to try him in RF after never playing there in order to get more time for Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (immortals all) at 3B? If ever there was a developmental mistake it was that one.

 

I would argue Sano's biggest problem was his lack of discipline at home plate and the dinner plate.  I don't harbor any personal animosity to the guy, but let's be brutally honest here.  By many accounts he was difficult to coach, and didn't listen to the Twins trainers.  Thus never evolved as a hitter. Once the league realized he was a sucker for breaking balls that was it, he was a total strikeout machine.  In contrast Kepler evolved as a hitter and kept himself relevant despite the slumps.  Sano never did that nor developed an effective eye at the plate.   

Worse yet Sano was completely undisciplined with his body and gained a ton of weight when he went to the majors.  If he had stayed trim at 220-240 he would have been a much more athletic player, with raw power. Personally, I'm 6'-4" just like him and I lift 5 days a week and have for years, and are around 240.  He should never have been bumpin the scales at 298 (which he was at one point).  That's lack of discipline. Unfortunately, it took the Twins letting him go for him to finally realize he needed to make changes to his diet and reportedly he lost 50 pounds before the start of the 2023 season. Now he's 31.  It's really too bad.  There is an article with the Athletic that talks about it. How Miguel Sanó lost 58 pounds, revived his career with Angels: ‘I needed to make a change’ - The Athletic

[Taildragger8791]

On 1/14/2025 at 10:17 AM, stringer bell said:

I think a lot of people are using "lazy" for fat. Kent Hrbek, Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew don't get shamed for being fat because they kept performing. Sanó plateaued (or worse) in his 20s

Did he plateau because he gained weight? I don't think so. He swung and missed at way too many balls in the strike zone. His plate discipline was okay (not great), but when you get beat on balls in the zone, it opens everything up. On the occasions when he was punishing strikes, he was a real slugger, but those occasions proved to be too rare. He wasn't a good defender anywhere he was put despite a really strong arm, so he had to hit.

Those guys didn't really blow up until mid/late career. Sano was ballooning from the day he got his cup of coffee.

I don't think people are just saying lazy instead of fat. They're extrapolating that his physical fitness in his early 20's is indicative of his overall approach to his game. The fact that his game stagnated and he never developed beyond "see ball (poorly), hit ball" just aligns to the 'lazy' descriptor and makes it easy to lay that label on him. The lower body injuries didn't help, but they largely came about because he wasn't training properly for his sport. Zion Williamson is going through the same thing right now.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, laloesch said:

... Unfortunately, it took the Twins letting him go for him to finally realize he needed to make changes to his diet and reportedly he lost 50 pounds before the start of the 2023 season. Now he's 31.  It's really too bad.  There is an article with the Athletic that talks about it. How Miguel Sanó lost 58 pounds, revived his career with Angels: ‘I needed to make a change’ - The Athletic

I saw all the 58lb weight loss quotes to begin last year (2024), but no actual listed weight. Still looked like when he was playing at 260ish to me so he was probably north of 3 bills when he started his "weight loss"
https://halohangout.com/posts/la-angels-nri-miguel-sano-revealed-he-lost-absurd-amount-of-weight-2024-comeback-01hqjyng7zff

You're right about Sano playing 220ish. If he'd stayed under 230lbs, he'd have probably been a plus fielder at 3B, he'd have been on the field more, and he'd likely have no gaps in his playing years.