Evaluating the Big Swings: Does the Minnesota Twins’ Front Office Have Another Offseason Surprise?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins front office has taken some big swings under the current front office regime. Is there room to take another risk leading into the 2025 campaign?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins’ front office hasn’t shied away from big moves in recent offseasons. Under Derek Falvey's guidance, the team has taken calculated risks in an attempt to push the Twins toward contention, even as they've maintained a broadly conservative approach to team-building. But as we look back at these big swings, there are lessons to be learned. As the Twins prepare for the 2025 season, these moves provide a blueprint for what worked, what didn’t, and what could shape the team moving forward.

The Bringer of Rain: Josh Donaldson’s Lasting Impact
In Jan. 2020, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $92 million contract, making him the highest-paid free agent in team history. The move represented a significant shift in strategy. The Twins weren’t content to stay in the shadows of free-agent spending; they wanted an established star who could bring both power and fire to a roster coming off a 101-win season. Donaldson brought energy and experience, but his tenure with the Twins was rocky. Injuries limited his playing time, and while he posted solid offensive numbers (128 OPS+), he never quite became the game-changer the front office envisioned.

In hindsight, the Donaldson signing taught the Twins a vital lesson: stars on the back end of their prime carry risk. By 2022, the Twins decided to move on, trading Donaldson to the Yankees to free up payroll. The signing did bring legitimacy to the team’s ambitions, but it also showed that the front office was willing to pivot when things didn’t go as planned. Donaldson’s impact wasn’t all negative, but it underscored the need for calculated risk, particularly when looking at the player’s age and health profile.

Two Winters, Two Contracts: The Carlos Correa Saga
Few free agency pursuits in Twins history have matched the twists and turns of Carlos Correa’s journey to Minnesota. First arriving in 2022 on a short-term deal that allowed him to opt-out after one season, Correa was a splash signing intended to bring a new level of defensive prowess and leadership to the Twins. Correa played well with a 138 OPS+ and entered free agency again.

Then came the whirlwind offseason of 2022-23. After two megadeals with the Giants and Mets fell through due to concerns over Correa’s lower leg, the Twins swooped in to sign him to a long-term deal worth at least $200 million. The move was a testament to the front office’s persistence and ability to capitalize on unexpected market conditions, yet Correa’s health remains a talking point. He showed flashes of his All-Star potential, particularly in the first half of 2024, but an injury sidelined him during the final months, a blow to a team clinging to playoff hopes.

This saga with Correa highlighted the importance of adaptability and timing. In both signings, the Twins gambled on elite talent with some baggage. Moving forward, the Twins might exercise caution regarding injury history while continuing to look for value in unique market circumstances. And while Correa’s deal remains in its early years, it has the potential to anchor the lineup if he can stay on the field.

The Cost of Arms: Trading Luis Arraez for Pablo López
Trading Arraez to the Miami Marlins was one of the front office’s most scrutinized decisions in recent years. Arraez was beloved by Twins fans, known for his infectious energy and elite hit tool. But the front office saw an opportunity to address a glaring need for frontline starting pitching. López was coming off a solid season in Miami and looked like a pitcher capable of adding stability to Minnesota’s rotation.

López’s impact was immediate. He gave the Twins quality innings at the top of the rotation, earning an All-Star nod and, in many respects, justifying the trade. Arraez, meanwhile, won the NL batting title, and his departure left a hole in the Twins’ lineup that hasn’t been easy to fill. Trading offense for pitching is always a delicate balance, but López’s strong performance over the last two seasons (110 ERA+) served as a reminder that high-quality arms are worth the investment. This trade underscored the Twins’ willingness to make tough calls, prioritizing balance across the roster even if it meant losing a fan-favorite player.

What the Big Swings Mean for 2025
The Twins’ front office has shown a willingness to take chances, and these moves reveal a few key insights. First, while the Twins are now cautious with free-agent deals for aging players, they’re not afraid to target top-tier talent if the opportunity arises. The lessons from Donaldson, Correa, and the Arraez trade point to a blueprint where calculated risk-taking is essential. But there’s also a shift in focus. The team has begun emphasizing sustainability over immediate impact, recognizing that injury-prone stars and short-term fixes can disrupt long-term planning.

Looking ahead to 2025, the front office will likely apply these lessons as it assesses the roster. With Alex Kirilloff retiring, they may look for a steady bat at first base. One option is to re-sign Carlos Santana for his defensive prowess. Another could be to pursue a more established option like Paul Goldschmidt, although he might be out of their price range. They’ll also need to carefully weigh the bullpen composition and back-end rotation, two areas where they’ve already taken significant risks. And, importantly, with payroll constraints in mind, they’ll continue to seek value in unexpected places, as they did with Correa’s second deal.

The big swings have brought mixed results, but they’ve allowed the Twins to remain competitive in a challenging division. Whether the front office can take these lessons to heart will determine how effectively the Twins build a team ready for another postseason push. And fans can only hope the next gamble brings the Twins closer to October glory.

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Which big swing has been the most successful? Will the front office take a big swing this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[dxpavelka]

Based on the picture at the top I was expecting the article to advocate moving Lopez.  The difference between previous moves (such as trading FOR Lopez) is that moving Lopez removes your only front-line starter from the equation.  While I think it is quite possible that either Ryan or Ober, or maybe even one of a small handful of others,  at some point displaces him as the de facto # 1 guy, it hasn't happened yet.  And the thing about pitching is, that even if he's not # 1 you always need a # 2.  And 3.  Some of the best deals are the ones not made.  Moving Lopez falls in that category for me.

 

[Whitey333]

In a better time the Twins may look to improve the club through free agency and targeted trades.  This off season it appears to be another salary dump of sorts to maintain and not increase payroll.  With Lopez getting a 13 million salary boost in 2025 and Correa getting a boost the savings have to come from somewhere.  Plus many increases due to salary arbitration.  With three players, Correa, Buxton, and Lopez combining to make over $70 million of a $130 million budget.  Something may have to give.  I don't want them to trade Lopez but I wouldn't be shocked if they dud.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think, with how they keep saying they need to be creative this offseason, that we will see a trade at some point that is surprising, and hopefully it's in a good way. I do imagine they will take a "swing" for a player, as well as some other minor trades too. 

 

[DJL44]

I don't see a lot of big moves happening with a lame duck POBO. However, if the Giants (who are interested in a SS) call about Carlos Correa I am going to guess that he gets dealt. That would let them drop payroll below $100M.

[LambchoP]

My guess is a trade of Paddack will happen first. Probably for a mid level prospect, in effect making it a salary dump. Attaching a prospect to Vasquez would probably make him trade able and another possible salary dump but that will depend on the organizations thoughts on Camargo and whether or not he can step up and be our backup catcher playing half the time. I'd say no way, but what do I know? We've got to find some way to grab a first baseman, RH hitting OF, a lefty reliever or two, and a SP would be nice. That's a decent shopping list for a team with no spending power. Paddacks salary dump could probably get us the relief pitcher. Vasquez and Paddack might get us a first baseman. Will be an interesting off season. I just hope they don't basically bow out of the off-season and give us the usual "we feel good enough about our current roster, and the right deals just didn't come together, asking prices were just too high and nobody wanted to trade with us..."

[Otaknam]

We are back to the salary dump Twins of 20 years ago. Vasquez should be the first to go, except for his ludicrous $10 million dollar contract. So unless the team picks up a significant portion of his contract, Vasquez will still be here. A Jeffers trade could happen as a salary dump, but Vasquez isn’t an everyday player. So trading Jeffers would leave a huge offensive hole. If they sign a free agent for first I think it will be Santana, because he wouldn’t cost that much, and cost will drive every decision going forward with this now penurious team. He also improves the defense. They might consider lost cost free agent first basemen on a downward career trend to save money, which would fan the already high flames of indifference for Twins fans.

[CRF]

The big surprise will be if they spend any money at all.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

In a better time the Twins may look to improve the club through free agency and targeted trades.  This off season it appears to be another salary dump of sorts to maintain and not increase payroll.  With Lopez getting a 13 million salary boost in 2025 and Correa getting a boost the savings have to come from somewhere.  Plus many increases due to salary arbitration.  With three players, Correa, Buxton, and Lopez combining to make over $70 million of a $130 million budget.  Something may have to give.  I don't want them to trade Lopez but I wouldn't be shocked if they dud.

$29.75M is coming off between Kepler / Farmer / Santana / Margot and DeSclafani so they don't need to cut other players to cover the cost of these increases.  Therefore, it's not accurate to say "the savings don't have to come from somewhere" because the savings are already accounted for in expiring contracts.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see a lot of big moves happening with a lame duck POBO. However, if the Giants (who are interested in a SS) call about Carlos Correa I am going to guess that he gets dealt. That would let them drop payroll below $100M.

Little chance on trading him to the Giants.  He has full no-trade clause. Plus, after they backed on the deal with him two years ago due to injury concerns. I think both him and the Giants would have little interest in each other.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This is such a weird offseason.  The new (what do we call it television? cable?) media contract really requires the Twins to be watchable, if not successful.  Angering the fan base will have a direct impact on revenue.  So sitting on their hands is not really an option.

The team is for sale.  Big additions or subtractions will sway potential buyers one way or the other, so the team needs to be hyper-aware of any major decision.

Quotes like "getting creative" basically mean there is no money to spend and most everyone is a potential trade option.

You have to spend money to make money.  Logic dictates they look to improve the team with maintaining team salary at the barest minimum.  However, there is a 95% chance team salary goes down.  It will be interesting to see the domino effect from that.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

Little chance on trading him to the Giants.  He has full no-trade clause. Plus, after they backed on the deal with him two years ago due to injury concerns. I think both him and the Giants would have little interest in each other.

The Giants may not have interest, but I think Correa would have interest in playing for a team that is trying to win and the Twins would have interest in getting his contract off the books.

[JD-TWINS]

Santana is one of the Finalists for Silver Slugger at 1B. He lead the Team in HR & RBI. He won a Gold Glove. …….should he be considered for $5-$6M???

He’d be the mirror to Miranda at 1B - Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching. He’d be an excellent late inning defensive replacement with a lead. He’d be the bat off the bench (instead of Margot) to face LH relievers.

Santana will be 39 in ‘25 and Goldschmidt will be 37 in ‘25. ……Santana had 1 more HR & 10 more RBI in ‘24 than Goldschmidt and he won a Gold Glove. Goldschmidt’s last GG was in ‘21…….they are essentially a wash in performance and based on reputation, Goldschmidt will cost 3X what Santana will cost.

Lopez was 15-10 (could easily have been 18-8) and had an ERA of 4.08. He threw 180 plus innings for third straight year. He had 198 strikeouts. He had 5 or so bad outings ……..mostly pretty good though. Can’t consider trading the leader of the pitching staff.

IMO, Duran is the jewel to be moved with another one or two guys in a package.

I honestly like adding Paddack & Varland along with Topa and Stewart back to the Pen. I don’t see getting any value back in a trade of Paddack. A straight salary dump, when he could throw 70 solid innings out of the Pen, doesn’t seem wise.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

My guess is a trade of Paddack will happen first. Probably for a mid level prospect, in effect making it a salary dump. Attaching a prospect to Vasquez would probably make him trade able and another possible salary dump but that will depend on the organizations thoughts on Camargo and whether or not he can step up and be our backup catcher playing half the time. I'd say no way, but what do I know? We've got to find some way to grab a first baseman, RH hitting OF, a lefty reliever or two, and a SP would be nice. That's a decent shopping list for a team with no spending power. Paddacks salary dump could probably get us the relief pitcher. Vasquez and Paddack might get us a first baseman. Will be an interesting off season. I just hope they don't basically bow out of the off-season and give us the usual "we feel good enough about our current roster, and the right deals just didn't come together, asking prices were just too high and nobody wanted to trade with us..."

Paddack has substantial negative trade value. Maybe if the Twins "included" a mid level prospect, a team would take Paddack giving us back a PTBNL.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Santana is one of the Finalists for Silver Slugger at 1B. He lead the Team in HR & RBI. He won a Gold Glove. …….should he be considered for $5-$6M?...

First, he's not going to be $5-6MM. It's going to be a bit more than that.
Second, he's coming off his best year in 5 years both offensively and defensively (best of his career) going into his age 39 season. The only year in the past 5 Santana was worth a full time roster spot, btw.

No.

[bean5302]

If there's a splash, I think it's almost certainly trading Pablo Lopez. He's the only way the Twins are going to free up cash to address other needs like CF, DH, 2B, C, SP1.

[Brandon]

Here is the Twins offseason sorry to burst your bubble but here it is.

1.  Trade Paddack and free up some cash

2.  Either resign Carlos Santana to a 1 year deal or not.  He is not a budget buster.  The Twins say they have a 130 million budget but I’m sure they can go to 133 million or probably 135 tops  We also have internal candidates for the position.  

3.  Sign depth relievers to minor league deals

4.  Sign a back up player who can play CF defense.  

5.  Hire coaches and internal personnel.  
 

offseason complete.

We have several starting pitchers ready for an opportunity Festa, Matthews, and Morris with Dobnak for emergency.  We actually have plenty of relievers going into the offseason but why not add competition on minor league deals.  We have ERod about ready to come up next year as well plus we have many young IF prospects/ players.  There is not much to be done.  Our team has a high floor moving forward as is.

[saviking]

There is no way I would trade Lopes over Correa and Buxton. He plays full seasons, while Correa and Buxton play partial seasons. 

But there is no way anyone would trade for Correa, and at least Buxton's salary is based on playing time. 

In honesty, I would trade Correa for a low-A minor league to get rid of his salary. But even then, I don't think you would find any takers. 

[Parfigliano]

31 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Santana is one of the Finalists for Silver Slugger at 1B. He lead the Team in HR & RBI. He won a Gold Glove. …….should he be considered for $5-$6M???

He’d be the mirror to Miranda at 1B - Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching. He’d be an excellent late inning defensive replacement with a lead. He’d be the bat off the bench (instead of Margot) to face LH relievers.

Santana will be 39 in ‘25 and Goldschmidt will be 37 in ‘25. ……Santana had 1 more HR & 10 more RBI in ‘24 than Goldschmidt and he won a Gold Glove. Goldschmidt’s last GG was in ‘21…….they are essentially a wash in performance and based on reputation, Goldschmidt will cost 3X what Santana will cost.

Lopez was 15-10 (could easily have been 18-8) and had an ERA of 4.08. He threw 180 plus innings for third straight year. He had 198 strikeouts. He had 5 or so bad outings ……..mostly pretty good though. Can’t consider trading the leader of the pitching staff.

IMO, Duran is the jewel to be moved with another one or two guys in a package.

I honestly like adding Paddack & Varland along with Topa and Stewart back to the Pen. I don’t see getting any value back in a trade of Paddack. A straight salary dump, when he could throw 70 solid innings out of the Pen, doesn’t seem wise.

Signing 37 YOA Goldschmidt would be stupid on steroids.

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If there's a splash, I think it's almost certainly trading Pablo Lopez. He's the only way the Twins are going to free up cash to address other needs like CF, DH, 2B, C, SP1.

Sad but true. Lopez is the only one that satisfies both sides… Shedding salary and getting the best return in a trade. I think shopping Lopez to Baltimore makes a lot of sense, personally. Their farm system is still loaded and their window of contention is right now. 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sad but true. Lopez is the only one that satisfies both sides… Shedding salary and getting the best return in a trade. I think shopping Lopez to Baltimore makes a lot of sense, personally. Their farm system is still loaded and their window of contention is right now. 

I think the problem is that Minnesota's window is right now, too. Or at least it's supposed to be. If it isn't, then Pablo isn't the only guy they should be trading. Any return in trade needs to be a right now return. It'd have to be the original Pablo trade in reverse. Would Baltimore trade Basallo or Mayo for Pablo? The Twins don't really need another no defense corner bat like Mayo unless they think he's a significantly better bat than the ones they have. If they think Basallo is ready for an opening day job behind the plate that'd be a very intriguing trade, but I very much doubt they'd do that trade.

I don't see much appeal in trading Pablo for prospects. Clearing 21.5 mil but losing Pablo doesn't make the 2025 Twins better. And if you're going to make the 2025 Twins worse you may as well make them much worse and start the rebuild. And if you're going to start the rebuild I'd rather not have the same people in charge who did this rebuild. I'm not saying don't trade Pablo, I just don't know that Baltimore is the trade partner unless somebody sees an MLB middle infielder or catcher they'd be willing to deal for him.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If there's a splash, I think it's almost certainly trading Pablo Lopez. He's the only way the Twins are going to free up cash to address other needs like CF, DH, 2B, C, SP1.

I was thinking the same thing but here is why I don't think it happens.  It would be done to reallocate the payroll to a position player(s).  The problem with that logic is Pablo would be replaced by the 6th SP option so the drop-off in production (WAR) is going to be significant.  What position has the greatest potential for gain.  There are no glaring weakness where the money could be spent in a way where it would yield greater production than spending it on Pablo.

In addition, Pablo is under control for 3 more years so there is no hurry.  If, and it's a big if, Festa, Matthews, and Morris (maybe Prielipp/Lewis) continue to shine, trading Pablo away becomes easy.  This could be done at the deadline or next off-season with the benefit of having more time to see if the pitching pipeline actually delivers.   

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the problem is that Minnesota's window is right now, too. Or at least it's supposed to be. If it isn't, then Pablo isn't the only guy they should be trading. Any return in trade needs to be a right now return. It'd have to be the original Pablo trade in reverse. Would Baltimore trade Basallo or Mayo for Pablo? The Twins don't really need another no defense corner bat like Mayo unless they think he's a significantly better bat than the ones they have. If they think Basallo is ready for an opening day job behind the plate that'd be a very intriguing trade, but I very much doubt they'd do that trade.

I don't see much appeal in trading Pablo for prospects. Clearing 21.5 mil but losing Pablo doesn't make the 2025 Twins better. And if you're going to make the 2025 Twins worse you may as well make them much worse and start the rebuild. And if you're going to start the rebuild I'd rather not have the same people in charge who did this rebuild. I'm not saying don't trade Pablo, I just don't know that Baltimore is the trade partner unless somebody sees an MLB middle infielder or catcher they'd be willing to deal for him.

That’s essentially the problem this offseason. The baseline of talent is decent enough to win 82 games, but I have no faith that the Twins will spend any money this offseason to boost their current baseline. So we might be stuck with another mediocre mid 80s win team. 

[BillyBallLives]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

So we might be stuck with another mediocre mid 80s win team. 

Agreed! Same song, different verse. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

That’s essentially the problem this offseason. The baseline of talent is decent enough to win 82 games, but I have no faith that the Twins will spend any money this offseason to boost their current baseline. So we might be stuck with another mediocre mid 80s win team. 

In the dreaded middle ground. Falvey has his work cut out for him. We'll see what he can do. From the outside looking in it doesn't look like it'll be easy to make significant strides.

[David Maro]

Time to realize Buxton and Correa are not going anywhere. Name one team that wants to pay part time players the salary they are at. If they look to trade anyone it could be Ober. Looking at Ryan or Paddock they both have arm issues. Yes both maybe are fine,but I think teams will want to see them in ST first. As far as Lopez goes they need a Veteran pitcher to help the young arms navigate the season. Now you are at Vasquez who is a over 30 catcher making 10 million playing basically half the season.

[lukeduke1980]

A big swing might be position changes for Correa and Buxton.  Maybe 1B for Correa LF Buxton, to try to minimize impact on their bodies.   Not advocating but there's some precedent. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the problem is that Minnesota's window is right now, too. Or at least it's supposed to be. If it isn't, then Pablo isn't the only guy they should be trading. Any return in trade needs to be a right now return. It'd have to be the original Pablo trade in reverse. Would Baltimore trade Basallo or Mayo for Pablo? The Twins don't really need another no defense corner bat like Mayo unless they think he's a significantly better bat than the ones they have. If they think Basallo is ready for an opening day job behind the plate that'd be a very intriguing trade, but I very much doubt they'd do that trade.

I don't see much appeal in trading Pablo for prospects. Clearing 21.5 mil but losing Pablo doesn't make the 2025 Twins better. And if you're going to make the 2025 Twins worse you may as well make them much worse and start the rebuild. And if you're going to start the rebuild I'd rather not have the same people in charge who did this rebuild. I'm not saying don't trade Pablo, I just don't know that Baltimore is the trade partner unless somebody sees an MLB middle infielder or catcher they'd be willing to deal for him.

This sums up my thoughts nicely. A rebuild isn’t truly possible with Correa and Buxton on the books. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sad but true. Lopez is the only one that satisfies both sides… Shedding salary and getting the best return in a trade...

 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the problem is that Minnesota's window is right now, too...

 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I was thinking the same thing but here is why I don't think it happens...

Agreed. Pablo is not getting dealt for "prospects" unless they're super elite and MLB ready. There also has to be an SP1 caliber pitcher coming back. I've been doing my offseason plan for funsies and it's so hard to find a team who might be able to make that happen where the Twins and their trade partner benefit.

Lopez is a lot of salary, but not impossibly high. His trade value from BaseballTradeValues and analysts at various sites suggest Lopez's trade value is substantial (+37.4) at $22MM.

I think Pablo Lopez to the Diamondbacks for Zac Gallen (+19.5) at $14MM and Gabriel Moreno (+16.6) at pre-arb. Arizona gets what a lot of folks in the industry view as an ace pitcher at a far below market rate for 3 years. It's no secret AZ is interested in team controlled pitchers, especially an ace. They'd absolutely love to keep Gallen, but I don't think the Diamondbacks have the budget to sign Gallen at 7/$200MM or something like that. Lopez checks the boxes for them.

Gallen is a significantly better pitcher than Lopez, and he's cheaper next year, but the Twins will only have 1 year of control. The Twins also get a franchise catcher. Moreno is pre-arb, under team control until 2029, is a25 next year. Moreno is not only an above average hitter, but he's a solid defender behind the plate. He's expendable for the Diamondbacks because of Adrian Del Castillo. The Twins free up $7MM to use elsewhere to sign a DH like J.D. Martinez.

Both teams win, both teams keep their window open, and both teams stay in budget.

[Trov]

Paul Goldschmidt would be out the price range? I get he has a good history, but he is coming off a 1.3 bWAR season. He is 37.  I doubt he gets a large deal.  He will get offers, but only smaller offers in case he is cooked. He plays 1b, and not a great defender there, and he was below league average hitter last year.  Not exactly someone that people will be throwing money at.

Yes, he has had a great career, and could be a HOF, but he is coming off a very down year.  He was not given a QO in fear he might accept it. Yes, that was from a salary dumping team, but he might be more of a platoon vet now and not a full time starter.