Guardians 3, Twins 2 (10 Innings): Twins Walked Off Again, Cleveland Clinches Playoff Berth, Twins and Tigers Tied

[Seth Stohs]

With just nine games remaining, the Twins are now tied with the red-hot Detroit Tigers. For the second straight game, the Guardians walked off the Twins in extra innings. That gave them three of four games in the series. Cleveland clinched a playoff berth, and the Twins head to Boston to try to turn things around. 

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Simeon Woods Richardson - 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (72 pitches, 51 strikes (70.8% strikes))
Home Runs: None.
Bottom 3 WPA: Byron Buxton (-0.305), Matt Wallner (-0.219), Carlos Correa (-0.209). 
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Running, er, Throwing on Fumes 
As we have talked about, three-fifths of the Twins starting rotation are rookies. None of them have pitched this late into a season in their careers and they’re reaching innings counts they haven’t approached before. 

What does a pitcher running on fumes look like?   

On Thursday afternoon, Simeon Woods Richardson threw 72 pitches, but 29 of them were fastballs. This season, his average four-seam fastball has had a velocity of 93.2 mph. His average on Thursday was 91.3 mph, nearly two mph less than average. 

His slider was 1.8 mph short of his season average. His changeup was about 2.3 mph slower than his season average (maybe that’s a good thing, about a 10 mph difference from the fastball). His slider was down 0.2 mph, and his curveball actually was up 0.6 mph. 

Honestly, that makes his performance look even better. He had to work. He had to hit spots. He got about 2 inches more in vertical and horizontal break on the four-seamer. He used guile. And he gave his team a chance. 

Some High-Quality Cole Production 
Woods Richardson was removed with two outs and a runner on first base. Left Cole Irvin came in to face left-handed Kyle Manzardo. On a sort-of check swing, the Cleveland rookie got a 30.2 mph infield single, perfectly placed. However, Irvin got Jose Ramirez to ground out to end the inning. 

He came back out for the sixth inning. Josh Naylor led off with a ground ball single. Andres Gimenez hit what should have been a double play ball to short, but with second baseman Kyle Farmer playing way into the pull shift. A small bobble, the look to second, and Gimenez’s speed meant that he was credited with an infield single instead. Jhonkensy Noel played along. He took a low changeup and went down and blooped a 74.7 mph single into left center to load the bases with nobody out. Brayan Rocchio flied out deep enough to score Naylor with the tying run, but he struck out the next two batters to keep it tied.

Irvin stayed in to start the seventh inning and got Angel Martinez on a ground out. When David Fry was announced as a pinch hitter for Manzardo, Rocco Baldelli turned to Cole Sands. The 2024 All Star blooped a single into shallow right field. However, he got two pop outs to end the inning. That’s 2 ⅓ solid innings from The Coles. 

Sands appears to just be getting stronger. In fact, if you look at his fastballs, splitters, sinkers and cutters, he only threw one pitch that was lower than his season average. 

Louie, Louie!  
Louie Varland came on for the eighth inning. It was the first time in his MLB career that he has worked in back-to-back games. Showing a fastball at 97-98 (97.5 average) and a cutter in the low-90s (91.5), he got a groundout and a fly out before blowing a fastball past pinch hitter Bo Naylor. 

Griffin Jax got the ninth inning and threw a scoreless inning. He worked in three of the four games this series. 

No Offense, but…  
The Twins offense continued to struggle. Against lefty starter Joe Cantillo, the Twins scored two runs (1 earned) on three hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings. 

However, against the bullpen options of Nick Sandlin, Tim Herrin, Andrew Walters, Hunter Gaddis, Emmanuel Clase, and Eli Morgan (10th), the Twins had zero hits and just one walk over 6 2/3 innings. 

We can talk all we want about pitching and bullpen decisions, but if that’s all you’re going to do offensively, you’re not going to win many games. 

To Bunt or not To Bunt
In the top of the 10th inning, Kyle Farmer was the Manfred Man. Matt Wallner was hit in the shoulder by a pitch. Then Willi Castro laid down a really good sacrifice bunt. That brought up Manuel Margot with runners on second and third and one out. Margot put together a strong plate appearance and coaxed a walk. However, Carlos Correa - who came through the night before in the same situation - popped out to first base, and then Byron Buxton lined out to right.  

Was it a good decision to have Castro bunt the runners over with Margot coming up? Would it have been better to have Castro hit away? Earlier in the season, I would prefer Castro hit. Right now, with the offense as bad as it has been, I'm comfortable with trying other things to make things happen.

Other Notes
More to come.

What’s Next?
At 6:10 on Friday night, the Twins begin a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. David Festa (2-6, 5.07 ERA) will take on recently-promoted right-hander Richard Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA).

Saturday (3:10 pm): RHP Pablo Lopez (15-8, 3.84 ERA) vs RHP Kutter Crawford (8-15, 4.19 ERA)
Sunday (12:35 pm): RHP Zebby Matthews (1-3, 6.30 ERA) vs RHP Nick Pivetta (5-11, 4.37 ERA)  

A reminder, you can keep up with the other perspective throughout the series through Twins Daily's newest venture (or adventure), Talk Sox. 

Playoffs?! Playoffs!
The Twins have nine games to go, the Twins will not win the AL Central. I think we can say that confidently. With this loss, coupled with an off day by Detroit, the Twins and Tigers are now tied for the final wild card spot in the American League. It’s been a rough six weeks! 

The Twins have the tiebreaker over the Tigers, Mariners and Royals, but you can see why this upcoming series in Boston is so crucial. 

 

Postgame Interviews 

 

 

 

Bullpen Availability Chart 

 

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[NYCTK]

Season's over. You're all welcome to join me on the Mets bandwagon. I'm headed to Citi Field here shortly! 

[akmanak]

I hope they lose bad and fans finally start realizing that if you don't attend the games , eventually the owners will sell or invest in the team. 

 

This is a joke of an organization and I don't fault the players, but I fault the owners. A pathetic display of greed.

[jkcarew]

This started a long time ago. It’s pretty easy to argue that the Twins played a little better overall in this series than they had been. Were 9-17 in their last 26 games headed into the series. Consistently losing series to all types of teams, and nothing working well.

Ironically, we’re relatively healthy…back end of rotation making baby steps…and SHOULD be capable of digging out of it. But 10-20 (in last 30 games) is a long time of being really bad, and time is running out.

[Parfigliano]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Season's over. You're all welcome to join me on the Mets bandwagon. I'm headed to Citi Field here shortly! 

No bandwagon here.  Been meeting the Mets since 1980

[exeoud]

So Cleveland wins the division with 75% of the Twins payroll and people think every problem would go away if the Pohlads spend more money? I'm not disagreeing they aren't part of the problem, because they are. But if your direct competitor does more with less then it's clearly more of a front office, player, and manager issue.

[jkcarew]

At the end of play on August 17, the Twins were 10.5 games up on the Tigers….with a +75 run differential relative to the Tigers. Now, they’re tied, and the Twins are -6 run differential relative to the Tigers.

That was 33 days ago.

 

[thelanges5]

Gleeman always helps me put things into perspective. 

 

[thelanges5]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

Gleeman always helps me put things into perspective. 

 

 

[BH67]

When he wrote the allegory of the cave in The Republic nearly 2500 years ago, Plato surely never fathomed the gut punches to be experienced regularly by Minnesota sports fans. Yet his point remains true that those of us seeing only shadows of reality and not what's actually happening are insufficiently knowledgeable about the reasons.

We can see the end result. However, much opinion is given here to the why. I interpret the shadows thus:

• Given a slump of at least a week's duration, Rocco Baldelli's Twins are rudderless, and this happened in late 2022 as well. Yet these Twins never quit trying to play their best.
• The Twins of the Falvine era consistently suffer injuries to key players above the number and duration experienced by other teams. Yet they are building a deep farm system that concentrates on maximizing strikeouts for pitchers and OPS for field players.
• The Twins have not solved their media revenue issues durably, and that will limit payroll to below what fans here seek to remain competitive.

What to do given these assumptions? That's someone else's job. Go Twins, regardless.

[thelanges5]

 

[NYCTK]

19 minutes ago, exeoud said:

So Cleveland wins the division with 75% of the Twins payroll and people think every problem would go away if the Pohlads spend more money? I'm not disagreeing they aren't part of the problem, because they are. But if your direct competitor does more with less then it's clearly more of a front office, player, and manager issue.

You are right, it's not just payroll. But the Cleveland organization is just better top to bottom. They've produced so much more talent over the last two decades than the Twins. 

[Peter]

47 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Season's over. You're all welcome to join me on the Mets bandwagon. I'm headed to Citi Field here shortly! 

I don’t think so-I’ll stick with my twins. Pitching match ups favor twin-rough stretch right now but Detroit has Baltimore we got Boston when Monday hits we will have at least a 2 game lead. 

[CRF]

46 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

No bandwagon here.  Been meeting the Mets since 1980

I grew up in the NY/NJ area back in the late 50's and 60's, and lived there thru the early 80's The Mets were my team as a kid. Seaver, Koosman, the Tugger. 1969 was a beautiful thing! Loved them and there's always a spot in my heart for them. Still follow the Mets even though I've lived in Mn since 82. I'm die hard Twins now, but that's the thing...I'm dying hard watching them.

[hitterscount]

The only question I have is can they get over .500…. Time to move on from the GM and his puppet manager… I say puppet because most believe Rocco is just an extension of the ….. whatever they are doing it doesn’t work.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

“wait til we get Correa and Buxton back in the lineup” 

Baseball is a funny game, and sports psychology and the Law of Swings (just made that up) tells me this will light a fire under the team in Boston and they will win a few now. You rarely see pure winning or losing streaks like this. 

[MMMordabito]

27 minutes ago, Peter said:

I don’t think so-I’ll stick with my twins. Pitching match ups favor twin-rough stretch right now but Detroit has Baltimore we got Boston when Monday hits we will have at least a 2 game lead. 

I have more faith the the Vikings will be 3-0 than the Twins having a winning weekend in Beantown. Go Vikings!

[Peter]

8 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I have more faith the the Vikings will be 3-0 than the Twins having a winning weekend in Beantown. Go Vikings!

I’m huge Vikings fan as well but that can wait-Twins are top priority!!!

[Dave Borton]

Quote

A reminder, you can keep up with the other perspective throughout the series through Twins Daily's newest venture (or adventure), Talk Sox. 

You guys need to get interviewed on "Baseball is Dead." Jered is a big Red Sox promoter and has/had a podcast on the Sox.

[mrcharlie]

1 hour ago, exeoud said:

So Cleveland wins the division with 75% of the Twins payroll and people think every problem would go away if the Pohlads spend more money? I'm not disagreeing they aren't part of the problem, because they are. But if your direct competitor does more with less then it's clearly more of a front office, player, and manager issue.

I would put it on coaching. Period. Rocco does not inspire 100% from his players.  Therefore the players lack focus and motivation. What a shame because good young players will learn bad habits under his leadership.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, exeoud said:

So Cleveland wins the division with 75% of the Twins payroll and people think every problem would go away if the Pohlads spend more money? I'm not disagreeing they aren't part of the problem, because they are. But if your direct competitor does more with less then it's clearly more of a front office, player, and manager issue.

Payroll does not equal talent. Cleveland's return on the $ is much better than the Twins return is.

Vogt puts his players in roles they are comfortable with and the players play within these roles and their limitations. On paper the Twins are the better team - based on prospect lists and scouting reports - Cleveland gets more out of it's players and therefore gets better results.

[Aggies7]

Been said already, but spending a lot (relatively for us) doesn’t necessarily equal wins. Ask the Mets (speaking of). 
 

This has been bad, even by Minnesota sports standards. Rare to see a collapse like this from the twins. In fact, I’d say it’s their biggest collapse of all time. Certainly the worst in terms of length.

The entire organization needs an enema. The lack of fundamentals, underperformance, poor talent evaluation (especially in trades/signings), the penchant for injury, and the continued practice of not putting your best lineup on the field most of the time is just exhausting. 

I’m totally fine with not seeing this team in the playoffs. They don’t deserve it anyway.

[AceWrigley]

Perspective. Over this 4-game set with Cleveland, the Twins got 11 rbi's. Shohei Ohtani got 10 rbi's . . . today.

[David HK]

I am so so glad these day games happen in the middle of the night for me.

Keeps my pillow dry from all the GD tears I'd have shed.

[Blyleven2011]

Cleveland has clinched a playoff spot , my heart has skipped a beat , the twins lineup has skipped showing up to play , 3 fricken hits and 1 earned run  ,...

I like pitchers duels as much as the next guy , but this is ridiculous  ...

It's back to changing the name again  , from twinkies to the Minnesota possums  ...

they play dead at home and get killed on the road ...

[NYCTK]

50 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Been said already, but spending a lot (relatively for us) doesn’t necessarily equal wins. Ask the Mets (speaking of). 
 

This has been bad, even by Minnesota sports standards. Rare to see a collapse like this from the twins. In fact, I’d say it’s their biggest collapse of all time. Certainly the worst in terms of length.

The entire organization needs an enema. The lack of fundamentals, underperformance, poor talent evaluation (especially in trades/signings), the penchant for injury, and the continued practice of not putting your best lineup on the field most of the time is just exhausting. 

I’m totally fine with not seeing this team in the playoffs. They don’t deserve it anyway.

Hey! 

While this collapse is bad, we gotta remember this is a collapse from 5th best team in the league to maybe out of the playoffs. It doesn't meet the standards for worst of all time imo. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

I agree that the smaller payroll is far from the biggest or only problem here.  However, a below average payroll, combined with an apparently clueless sense on how to run a MLB-caliber team effectively and efficiently, has seemingly led us to this point. 

I also can't shake the thought that this whole season was an exercise in maximizing ownership profit, over everything else.

[thelanges5]

Come on boys time to flush another one. Let’s go 4-2 over the next two series heading to that last weekend with a two game lead and wrap this thing up.

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

“wait til we get Correa and Buxton back in the lineup” 

Baseball is a funny game, and sports psychology and the Law of Swings (just made that up) tells me this will light a fire under the team in Boston and they will win a few now. You rarely see pure winning or losing streaks like this. 

And with the bases loaded and one out, game tied in the 10th, Correa and Buxton are coming up. The money men. The franchise men. No hero among them. 

Otani got twice as many hits as the Twins did, all by himself, today.

But that post game talk by Baldelli was sooooo inspiring that I am sure they will now win out. So inspired they will finally perform again. Done deal. That man just oozes inspiration. 

[h2oface]

46 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Hey! 

While this collapse is bad, we gotta remember this is a collapse from 5th best team in the league to maybe out of the playoffs. It doesn't meet the standards for worst of all time imo. 

Now that gives me comfort.