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Posted

After multiple shortened, hampered campaigns, the Twins have managed to keep a healthy Byron Buxton on the lineup card and stationed in center field, while still having him smashing at the plate.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

When Byron Buxton signed his extension in the late winter of 2021, there was one central question on most Twins’ fans mind: even with a team-friendly deal, would Buxton play enough to make it worth it? Both the 2019 and 2020 campaigns ended with injuries. When a fastball to the hand limited his 2021 season, he came back too late to make a difference in the losing season. The next year reminded us all how great he can be when he's on the field, but ended without him, while 2023 demonstrated the pitfalls of protecting his playing time.

This campaign has been entirely different, however. Buxton has been a consistent center fielder, whose bat has only gotten hotter every month. He's slashing .276/.335/.517 on the season. Since May 1, the only outfielders who have accumulated more WAR are Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Jarren DuranAny long-term worries an early slump prompted have dissipated. 

More importantly, he has done it not by spending most days as a DH, but in the field, where fans have come to love him. For once, Buxton seems to have survived a collision with the wall unharmed. He's only a fistful of games from matching his 2019 innings total in the outfield, a number he hasn't reached in any of the intervening years. Let’s just say this guy has been out of work.

The Twins’ approach in 2024 has been defined clearly: rather than protect Buxton to keep him all season, they have let him loose, without special constraints. But a few notable differences have kept Buxton healthy, and might make for his star-turning moment in October.

Forget the DH
In 2023, the Twins organization decided it was their job to protect Buxton from injuries, but their plan backfired. The team watched him struggle as the designated hitter, a skill that has made a number of players frustrated in recent years. In an in-depth article by Hannah Keyser, a number of regular DHs—including Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton—discussed the difficulty of finding a groove when not spending their time on their toes. 

Early in the season, Buxton was still seeing a mixture of scheduled off days, center field time, and DH duty. He started as the DH four times in April, and had six off days that month, leading up to his stint on the injured list in early May. Their initial strategy continued to be the same disaster as last year, resulting in a .211/.211/.263 line. He has not done a day at DH since May 22. Buxton still gets more days off than other teammates, but this change in policy has worked for the best. Buxton had the third-best month of his career in July, and he's blasted five homers and three doubles in his last 12 games.

Good, Not Great Defense
Notably, Buxton’s defensive metrics are down. He's been worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, but that reflects a pace toward only 5 or 6 in a full season, which would be the worst such mark for him since his rookie campaign of 2016. Meanwhile, SABR’s Defensive Index, which is used to determine Gold Glove winners, has given Buxton a negative rating so far.

Defensive metrics (not to mention Gold Glove finalists) are notoriously difficult to evaluate, and sometimes have resulted in questionable winners. Plus, all the metrics still put him above his stopgaps, like Willi Castro and Austin Martin.

Buxton has certainly made fewer superstar catches than he had in previous years (though there have been a few stellar moments, like the daring play he made Sunday). And as much as I have watched, I cannot recall many moments where I felt he had taken his foot off the gas. Perhaps Buxton only goes 80% to 90% while out in the field, rather than 110%. Only he could say. But if there are no moments where one could point to his defense as a problem, one must admit this plan is working.

Speed Over Steals
Earlier in the season, Buxton suggested he and Willi Castro would fight it out for 30 stolen bases. Neither has come close, with Buxton only nabbing six bases so far (while being caught twice). That’s even less than last year, when he managed 15 steals over the disappointing half-season. That follows out of a year where—Elly De La Cruz excepted—stealing has continued its upward tick, with new rules making steals easier. So what happened to that early confidence?

While steals are certainly aesthetically pleasing, they are also not worth that much in value. Buxton has instead used his speed with the ball in play—by speeding across bases, turning singles into doubles or bringing a run across when others put the ball in play.

Buxton has always had elite sprint speed, but his 29.6 feet per second this season is his fastest since 2021.

Stealing is an art, but baserunning aggressiveness can often create runs in a way steals cannot. Perhaps there is an injury Buxton is trying to avoid by stealing—it would be worth asking him why his early season prediction went south. (The team is set to have a similar number of steals to last year, but Castro has significantly decreased his stolen base attempts, as well.) But if the Twins are getting all the beauty of Buxton’s hustle along the bases without having to resort to steals, then all the better for it.

All for October
The Byron Buxton Resurgence can end at any moment. Twins fans know it too well. A misplaced ball could end it all. Or perhaps a lumbering sausage. 

Sunday was the latest close call. But the Twins have found an adjustment that works, giving us the Buxton we all want. Now, we just need to hope it lasts.


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Posted

Appreciate the article, and great to see his performance this season. Two things I have noticed with Buxton recently - curious if others see then as well. First, he seems to be swinging at the unhittable low and away breaking ball far less than in the past. Second, his hands seem lower in his stance the last few months. When he is struggling at the plate, it seems like he raises his hands higher and higher in his stance pre-swing until they can't go any higher. When he is dong well his hands are lower / more natural pre swing. Anyone else see these?

Posted
51 minutes ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

Appreciate the article, and great to see his performance this season. Two things I have noticed with Buxton recently - curious if others see then as well. First, he seems to be swinging at the unhittable low and away breaking ball far less than in the past. Second, his hands seem lower in his stance the last few months. When he is struggling at the plate, it seems like he raises his hands higher and higher in his stance pre-swing until they can't go any higher. When he is dong well his hands are lower / more natural pre swing. Anyone else see these?

Not to mention that keeping his hands lower might help him hit the low and away thus seeming like fewer of those pitches are unhittable.

Posted

Maybe we haven't seen that many BIG moments this year, at least in the way of walk-off homers or acrobatic catches, but Buxton has been consistently good, especially the past 2 months. Seems like he is finally in a groove and comfortable at the plate, not swinging at those seemingly unhittable balls that the other poster mentioned. Pleased to see his batting average up and the strikeouts down. If he can stay healthy down the stretch he should be a huge contributor to this team. 

Posted

I do think on defense he has taken a step back, which may be intentional in his part, not pushing it full bore anymore, or it could just be what his body can now do.  He has always been injury prone, and injuries tend to tick up even more as players age.  However, if he can play CF at even average level, still has elite arm, and hit at plus level he will be worth his contract. 

In regards to the DH thing, it has been talked about for years that is not an easy thing to do, and many legends who moved to DH part time would hit much worse as a DH than as a fielder.  It is a mind thing, that when in field you can get your mind off your hitting, but when you are just hitting, it is harder to get out of your own head.  Which makes when you find a true good hitting DH they are worth more than some think. 

Posted
2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

A major part of how they’ve kept him on the field was the offseason surgery cleaning up his knee. 

And the main reason for the DH season was that he was already injured when it started. It wasn't a china doll Raya preventative move.  Weird how we always try to frame these things as front office failures by default.

The defense is down, meh.  It's still there but he seems to finally be embracing the common sense that not every ball needs caught.  They just don't.  My golden retriever hasn't figured this out and never will so I have to throw where he can't hurt himself.  Buck is trying to stay upright by wisely leaving a few balls alone. 

Two plays near the fence come to mind, one in Arizona and one in San Francisco that he very noticeably pulled up to stay away from an unfamiliar fence.  They looked awkward because it's completely out of character for him.  It's the smart move though.

Posted

Agreed. I also think he's been more situational in the field - going all out and taking risk in late and close situations, while being a little more cautious in more routine situations. That may just be maturity  and it may be Correa's influence because that's what he does. Hopefully Correa can teach Lewis the same skill, particularly when running the bases. I would expect to see Buxton back to his more "all out, all the time" self if this team makes the playoffs. 

It's all good. Buxton should hit 100 games and may hit 120. Can't argue with that. 

Posted

His defensive metrics are partially down due to his peers just being better fielders. Buxton's feet covered is up 1.7ft in his "jump" to 35.8 ft, which is the highest of his career, but his peers are at their best as well. In any case, Buxton's slowing down a bit, his arm isn't grading out quite as well, etc. Basically, the guy has entered his 30s so don't expect him to be able to avoid decline at this point.

It's nice to see Buxton staying as healthy as he has been. Highly unexpected, even eyebrow raising to me, but he's on pace for 125 games this year. I'd say he has an outside chance to get to that 504 PA total which would qualify him. Wouldn't that be something?

As I expected, his bat caught up to the fastballs he was behind earlier this year, and he's been feasting on them as the scouting reports always lag actual production. Buxton's always been good against the 4 seamer, and now that he's on top of them again, he'll probably see fewer going forward. Still, his OPS+ 135 is only a fraction higher than underlying metrics suggest. Buxton could be looking at a near 5 WAR campaign this year. Far from an MVP candidate, but right on par with his real ceiling.

Posted

It's great to see Buck playing in CF and hitting so well. He's a key player for the Twins and one of the guys who has an elite ceiling, and you need those guys to contend.

He's clearly he trying to pick his moments for when to unleash his top-end speed and do it when it counts to keep himself on the field through the long grind. Fine by me, especially because he's shown that he can do it, throw it into 3rd gear rounding 1B to leg out a double.

The knee surgery in the off-season clearly has worked and cleaned up the problem that kept giving him pain last season, and they've managed his workload pretty well. It would be really exciting if he can get through this season like this, and then NOT need any kind of surgery in the offseason. Sometimes that's the cascading effect for a player who had a lot of injuries earlier in their career for staying healthy later: getting that healthy season with no off-season surgery so they can keep building on what they have and not have to start over again.

Here's hoping. The defense may not be back to the elite levels it was, but it's still plenty good out there and he's having an excellent season overall after a slower start.

Posted

I was thinking also how blessed we were when he crashed into the wall by how many games he has played so far this season. He has already matched games played last season while playing a good portion of them this season in CF. He's a difference maker. DH doesn't suit Buck.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Mortimerkenny21 said:

So how many games has he actually played? And when he actually could play and not on the short injury stint? We have played 110 games so far.

85 games played so far out of 110.  Puts him on pace for 125 for the season.  That number could potentially rise if the team is still fighting for a playoff spot in September.

Whatever the secret sauce is in treating Buxton, lets hope it continues.  He has been fun to watch this year, especially on the offensive side (not so much the automatic strikeout as in years past).

Posted
4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Maybe we haven't seen that many BIG moments this year, at least in the way of walk-off homers or acrobatic catches, but Buxton has been consistently good, especially the past 2 months. Seems like he is finally in a groove and comfortable at the plate, not swinging at those seemingly unhittable balls that the other poster mentioned. Pleased to see his batting average up and the strikeouts down. If he can stay healthy down the stretch he should be a huge contributor to this team. 

Not just good, he's 12th in fWAR in the entire league since June 1st and that's while playing 10-20% fewer games than anyone else in the top 20 of MLB over that span.

Hitting .302/.367/.610 with good defense and baserunning over that span. He's been worth basically his whole salary in that span. 

Posted

It was said that plica surgery has very high levels of success and it appears they were right. It took them a while to diagnose the problem, but that is common. Buxton is driven to go right by his contract and he just may do that.

Posted
41 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Not just good, he's 12th in fWAR in the entire league since June 1st and that's while playing 10-20% fewer games than anyone else in the top 20 of MLB over that span.

Hitting .302/.367/.610 with good defense and baserunning over that span. He's been worth basically his whole salary in that span. 

Buxton's 19th in the AL (33rd in MLB) for fWAR among position players. He's lower than Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker, who've both played fewer games in the AL. Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and Patrick Bailey have more fWAR in fewer games in the NL. Let's also consider the top players vs. Buxton in regard to the gap.
Top 5 AL range from Duran 5.3 to Judge 7.7.
Top 5 NL range from Bailey 3.8 to Ohtani 5.7.

Buxton isn't really all that close to any of them. The gap between Byron Buxton and the top 4 in each league is the same distance as Byron Buxton and the 178th position player in MLB.

Categorizing Buxton as good might be a slight if you want to get nitpicky. He's been very good, but not elite.

Posted

He’s always had spectacular stretches…spectacularly good and spectacularly bad. I think this has been one of his longest stretches of good. Maybe not as ridiculous as some of his hot streaks over the years, but very good. Even mixed with the poor results earlier, the production is very good. Meanwhile, he’s been primarily available defensively.

I doubted whether he had a season like this in him anymore. But, he’s headed for his best season…by far, IMO. (knocking wood)

Posted

I still think Buck is very good in the outfield. I watch most of the games and I can only recall one ball that he flat out dropped. I do think he is playing conservatively in the outfield when the games aren’t close which might be why the metrics arent liking him as much (or it could be because they aren’t that accurate).  But he can still go get it when he needs to.  I think he will always be streaky with the bat but I will enjoy the heater right now. 

Posted

Buck staying healthy and playing CF while hitting consistently has been the biggest surprise of the season for me. If Twins can get Correa back; Lewis on the field and not on the IL and Buck playing most the rest of the games, Twins could be a force to be reckoned with.

Posted
12 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Buxton is really helping with the team effort  by staying healthy and playing baseball in centerfield and once again hitting the ball like he once did  , better consistency  ...

Amazing what good health can accomplish ...

He looks like he is having fun once again ...

Per the post - he’s #4 in WAR as an outfielder in the A.L. ……….Judge - Soto - Duran are the only guys ahead of him. Some nice comments made here but, come on - his season to date has been fantastic. His offense since early-mid June has been on an extremely high level. Byron Buxton hitting .276 and a slug% over .500 and an OPS+ of 135 is special - better than I would have dared to hope for - on pace to play 125 games…….115 of those in CF.

Posted
1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Per the post - he’s #4 in WAR as an outfielder in the A.L. ……….Judge - Soto - Duran are the only guys ahead of him. Some nice comments made here but, come on - his season to date has been fantastic. His offense since early-mid June has been on an extremely high level. Byron Buxton hitting .276 and a slug% over .500 and an OPS+ of 135 is special - better than I would have dared to hope for - on pace to play 125 games…….115 of those in CF.

🫰 , it all comes down to him being healthy  like I mentioned  ...

Posted
8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton's 19th in the AL (33rd in MLB) for fWAR among position players. He's lower than Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker, who've both played fewer games in the AL. Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and Patrick Bailey have more fWAR in fewer games in the NL. Let's also consider the top players vs. Buxton in regard to the gap.
Top 5 AL range from Duran 5.3 to Judge 7.7.
Top 5 NL range from Bailey 3.8 to Ohtani 5.7.

Buxton isn't really all that close to any of them. The gap between Byron Buxton and the top 4 in each league is the same distance as Byron Buxton and the 178th position player in MLB.

Categorizing Buxton as good might be a slight if you want to get nitpicky. He's been very good, but not elite.

I think the context of my comment was pretty clear. 

Posted
14 hours ago, Trov said:

I do think on defense he has taken a step back, which may be intentional in his part, not pushing it full bore anymore, or it could just be what his body can now do.  He has always been injury prone, and injuries tend to tick up even more as players age.  However, if he can play CF at even average level, still has elite arm, and hit at plus level he will be worth his contract. 

In regards to the DH thing, it has been talked about for years that is not an easy thing to do, and many legends who moved to DH part time would hit much worse as a DH than as a fielder.  It is a mind thing, that when in field you can get your mind off your hitting, but when you are just hitting, it is harder to get out of your own head.  Which makes when you find a true good hitting DH they are worth more than some think. 

Part of why many legends struggle when they move to DH is because by that point they are no longer legends.

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