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When Byron Buxton signed his extension in the late winter of 2021, there was one central question on most Twins’ fans mind: even with a team-friendly deal, would Buxton play enough to make it worth it? Both the 2019 and 2020 campaigns ended with injuries. When a fastball to the hand limited his 2021 season, he came back too late to make a difference in the losing season. The next year reminded us all how great he can be when he's on the field, but ended without him, while 2023 demonstrated the pitfalls of protecting his playing time.
This campaign has been entirely different, however. Buxton has been a consistent center fielder, whose bat has only gotten hotter every month. He's slashing .276/.335/.517 on the season. Since May 1, the only outfielders who have accumulated more WAR are Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Jarren Duran. Any long-term worries an early slump prompted have dissipated.
More importantly, he has done it not by spending most days as a DH, but in the field, where fans have come to love him. For once, Buxton seems to have survived a collision with the wall unharmed. He's only a fistful of games from matching his 2019 innings total in the outfield, a number he hasn't reached in any of the intervening years. Let’s just say this guy has been out of work.
The Twins’ approach in 2024 has been defined clearly: rather than protect Buxton to keep him all season, they have let him loose, without special constraints. But a few notable differences have kept Buxton healthy, and might make for his star-turning moment in October.
Forget the DH
In 2023, the Twins organization decided it was their job to protect Buxton from injuries, but their plan backfired. The team watched him struggle as the designated hitter, a skill that has made a number of players frustrated in recent years. In an in-depth article by Hannah Keyser, a number of regular DHs—including Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton—discussed the difficulty of finding a groove when not spending their time on their toes.
Early in the season, Buxton was still seeing a mixture of scheduled off days, center field time, and DH duty. He started as the DH four times in April, and had six off days that month, leading up to his stint on the injured list in early May. Their initial strategy continued to be the same disaster as last year, resulting in a .211/.211/.263 line. He has not done a day at DH since May 22. Buxton still gets more days off than other teammates, but this change in policy has worked for the best. Buxton had the third-best month of his career in July, and he's blasted five homers and three doubles in his last 12 games.
Good, Not Great Defense
Notably, Buxton’s defensive metrics are down. He's been worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, but that reflects a pace toward only 5 or 6 in a full season, which would be the worst such mark for him since his rookie campaign of 2016. Meanwhile, SABR’s Defensive Index, which is used to determine Gold Glove winners, has given Buxton a negative rating so far.
Defensive metrics (not to mention Gold Glove finalists) are notoriously difficult to evaluate, and sometimes have resulted in questionable winners. Plus, all the metrics still put him above his stopgaps, like Willi Castro and Austin Martin.
Buxton has certainly made fewer superstar catches than he had in previous years (though there have been a few stellar moments, like the daring play he made Sunday). And as much as I have watched, I cannot recall many moments where I felt he had taken his foot off the gas. Perhaps Buxton only goes 80% to 90% while out in the field, rather than 110%. Only he could say. But if there are no moments where one could point to his defense as a problem, one must admit this plan is working.
Speed Over Steals
Earlier in the season, Buxton suggested he and Willi Castro would fight it out for 30 stolen bases. Neither has come close, with Buxton only nabbing six bases so far (while being caught twice). That’s even less than last year, when he managed 15 steals over the disappointing half-season. That follows out of a year where—Elly De La Cruz excepted—stealing has continued its upward tick, with new rules making steals easier. So what happened to that early confidence?
While steals are certainly aesthetically pleasing, they are also not worth that much in value. Buxton has instead used his speed with the ball in play—by speeding across bases, turning singles into doubles or bringing a run across when others put the ball in play.
Buxton has always had elite sprint speed, but his 29.6 feet per second this season is his fastest since 2021.
Stealing is an art, but baserunning aggressiveness can often create runs in a way steals cannot. Perhaps there is an injury Buxton is trying to avoid by stealing—it would be worth asking him why his early season prediction went south. (The team is set to have a similar number of steals to last year, but Castro has significantly decreased his stolen base attempts, as well.) But if the Twins are getting all the beauty of Buxton’s hustle along the bases without having to resort to steals, then all the better for it.
All for October
The Byron Buxton Resurgence can end at any moment. Twins fans know it too well. A misplaced ball could end it all. Or perhaps a lumbering sausage.
Sunday was the latest close call. But the Twins have found an adjustment that works, giving us the Buxton we all want. Now, we just need to hope it lasts.
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