Do The Twins Have Any Viable First Base Options Beyond Carlos Santana?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Carlos Santana has proven to be the Twins' most useful offseason acquisition, starting nearly every game at first base while providing plus defense. However, the team lacks depth behind the 38-year-old switch-hitter. Do they have a viable backup option if the wily veteran were to miss extended time? Let's take a look.

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Signed to a one-year, $5.25 million contract this February, veteran first baseman Carlos Santana has been the gem of the Twins' offseason acquisitions, sporting a .245/.329/.433 line with 78 hits, 18 doubles, 14 home runs and a 117 wRC+ over 359 plate appearances. Being one of the best-hitting first basemen in baseball and a steady switch-hitting cog in the middle of the Twins lineup has been his main source of value.

However, he has also been one of the best defensive players at the position, netting 10 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA), which places him first in the AL and second only behind Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, who has 12. The sure-handed 38-year-old plays balls down the line and in-between first and second base exceptionally. He also possesses one of the best gloves in the game and a natural knack for scooping errant throws.

Santana has been a silver lining free agent signing from an offseason where organization decision-makers essentially had both hands tied behind their back from a financial flexibility standpoint. He has become the team's everyday first baseman, hitting against both left and right-handed starting pitchers. However, that wasn't the team's initial plan. Santana was set to receive the bulk of opportunities. Yet, he was also supposed to split time with the left-handed hitting Alex Kirilloff. Santana is far superior from the right side of the plate, evidenced by his splits below:

• Versus RHP - .224/.324/.384, 272 plate appearances, 53 hits, 14 doubles, six home runs, 104 wRC+
• Versus LHP - .307/.358/.580, 95 plate appearances, 27 hits, six doubles, six home runs, 162 wRC+

Santana has performed 62% better than the league average while hitting right-handed, and the club's initial plan was to maximize his exceptional performance from that side of the plate. However, Kirilloff's subpar performance at the plate and in the field (and eventual placement on the 10-day IL with a back injury) have led to him essentially being a nonfactor. The 26-year-old left-handed bat could theoretically return from the injured list sometime soon and reenter the lineup as Santana's platoon partner. But should the team actively pursue that option while contending with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals for the AL Central crown and potential Wild Card seeding? It feels iffy.

With Kirilloff possessing little to no present or future value for the Twins, does the organization have a backup plan for Santana at first base if he struggles significantly at the plate or sustains an injury that keeps him out for an extended period? Let's take a look.

José Miranda
At first glance, the most natural replacement for the one-time All-Star would be Miranda. The resurgent 26-year-old has demonstrated a respectable glove and understanding of first base and its nuances, posting a 1 OAA over 51 1/3 innings played at the position. Since Kirilloff was placed on the IL in mid-June, Miranda has been the only position player to patrol first base other than Santana, making five starts at the position over the past month. Miranda has spent most of his time playing third base due to Royce Lewis needing to miss extended time with various soft tissue injuries. However, with the expectation that he and Lewis will return from their respective injuries this Friday, he could be in line for more time at first base, particularly when the team faces right-handed starting pitchers.

Miranda is Santana's most plausible back up option. Performing 50% better than average at the plate, Miranda has the bat skills and refined defensive acumen to play extended time at the position. Also, if Santana were to leave the Twins this offseason, Miranda could make sense as the team's long-term solution at the position. He would also work well in a platoon role, which takes us to our next candidate.

Edouard Julien
Julien has long existed in Twins fans' collective consciousness as a first base option, well in advance of his debut at the position last season against the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug. 22. However, sightings of the left-handed-hitting French Canadian playing the position have come few and far between, as he played only 17 1/3 innings at the position in the majors over 172 total career games. In theory, Julien would suffice as a platoon first baseman with Santana or Miranda. However, his production at the plate has regressed to the point where there is genuine concern over whether he will hit well enough to stay in the majors long term.

Also, his glove and overall range at second base have improved so much that a significant amount of his value lies in his defensive acumen amid his struggles at the plate. Again, Julien makes sense as a first baseman, as he draws walks, (theoretically) hits for power, and has a high strikeout rate. However, he needs to show substantial improvements at the plate if he wants to be considered a viable MLB player, let alone an option at a spot where one's ability to contribute at the plate is a requirement, not a luxury. Julien has a brighter future than Kirilloff and is more likely to make an impact on the Twins down the stretch. Nevertheless, he would be a less-than-ideal option at first base, even if he is the team's third-best option, as long as Kirilloff's career with the Twins is in limbo.

There's no obvious, long-term solution at first base for the organization right now. They can address that this winter, though. Right now, while they're stretched a little bit thin, Santana is a source of good feeling and good production, and Miranda is a solid secondary option. The rest will take care of itself, with time and the vagaries of the offseason.

View full article

[LambchoP]

I think Miranda is our best option. It's really the only way to get his bat in the lineup everyday with Lewis at 3rd. Maybe if Julien ever starts hitting again we could platoon him at first and have Miranda DH those days. We also have Severino at AAA. TONS of home run pop but tons of strikeouts as well. Not sure how well that would translate in the big leagues. He led the minors in homers last year and is doing well again this year. I say if he's not part of our long term infield plan, we should trade him now while his values high. 

[jmlease1]

Miranda is a more than reasonable choice to backup Santana this season (while backing up 3B and DHing) and should be back this weekend. He looks like a fine choice to start next season and has pretty neutral splits.

Severino could get his chance if Kirilloff falls out of the picture (that will be a shame, but if you can't stay healthy and aren't producing it doesn't matter how pretty your swing is, and the hidden back injury isn't going to play in his favor), and regardless of Julien's improvement at 2B he's a better fit at 1B than Brooks Lee, who will need a spot next season, either at 2B or 3B.

I'm not super worried about it; I suspect Wallner or Larnach could learn the position as well.

[FlyingFinn]

Severino, already on the 40 man roster, not getting a call up over Diego Castillo (who pinch hit, played in the DH and 3B spots) really casts doubt on what it would take for the Twins to call on him.

[mickster]

Can Jeffers play 1B?   If so then that is an option with Camargo coming back up.  Unless we get a 1B in a trade of Kepler.   That would be a sell and a buy.   Some teams need a LH hitter and this could be a route to go.

[Joe Schmitt]

Two weeks into the season, if you had told me that we would be having a conversation about how we could survive with Santana, I wouldn't have believed you. What a great pickup he has been.

[DJL44]

I think Royce Lewis is a possibility. That keeps him on the infield dirt where he's most comfortable.

[roger]

Although not an option this year, there have been frequent sightings of Keaschall at first base over the past few weeks.  May be a good option to platoon beginning next year.

[Karbo]

Miranda and Julian look like the most obvious. I can't help but wonder if they will try to bring Santana back.

[Cody Schoenmann]

28 minutes ago, mickster said:

Can Jeffers play 1B?   If so then that is an option with Camargo coming back up.  Unless we get a 1B in a trade of Kepler.   That would be a sell and a buy.   Some teams need a LH hitter and this could be a route to go.

Vázquez is much more likely to play 1B than Jeffers. The last time Jeffers played 1B was for five innings at Triple-A in 2021. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Miranda and Julian look like the most obvious. I can't help but wonder if they will try to bring Santana back.

It will be interesting to see. The 1B market will be pretty robust this offseason, but the Twins will likely be operating with significant spending constraints again. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

45 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Miranda is a more than reasonable choice to backup Santana this season (while backing up 3B and DHing) and should be back this weekend. He looks like a fine choice to start next season and has pretty neutral splits.

Severino could get his chance if Kirilloff falls out of the picture (that will be a shame, but if you can't stay healthy and aren't producing it doesn't matter how pretty your swing is, and the hidden back injury isn't going to play in his favor), and regardless of Julien's improvement at 2B he's a better fit at 1B than Brooks Lee, who will need a spot next season, either at 2B or 3B.

I'm not super worried about it; I suspect Wallner or Larnach could learn the position as well.

I've long been drawn to the idea of transitioning Wallner or Larnach (particularly Wallner) into a first baseman, but the front office doesn't seem interested in trying either of them there. Also, Kepler likely leaving in the offseason makes keeping Wallner and Larnach in the cOF even more important.

Edited July 26, 2024 by Cody Schoenmann

[jkcarew]

Why do switch hitters that are far superior from the right side continue to switch hit?

[Linus]

With the payroll limitations I would say Miranda is the default answer. Julien and Kiriloff can battle it out to get some starts there and DH. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Santana has been a great pick-up. Outside of Correa, he's been the Twins' best free-agent acquisition in years. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

49 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Miranda and Julian look like the most obvious. I can't help but wonder if they will try to bring Santana back.

I suspect that the Twins will try to bring Santana back if he will play for the same kind of a contract. A Lewis/Santina/Miranda every day 3B/!b/DH group would be a real strength of the team. RF will be open next year for Wallner, Larnach, or Martin, with Lee at 2B and Castro in LF.  

[bean5302]

Carlos Santana's UZR is average. His RF/9 is low. His DRS is good and his OAA is great, but like this site is so apt to do, we find the very best metric, even if it's unreliable, for a player and treat it as gospel. Santana's been good this year.

MIRANDA IS NOT A PLATOON CANDIDATE. At all. Like 0%, and it's super easy to discover that with 30sec of Fangraphs' split tool. I've seen Miranda be noted as a potential platoon guy over and over and over on this site. I guess it's out of absolute desperation to justify keeping Kirilloff on the roster or something?

wRC+
Career vs. LHP = 108, vs. RHP = 120
2024 vs. LHP = 87, vs. RHP 177
2023 vs. LHP = 56, vs. RHP 57
2022 vs. LHP = 132, vs. RHP 110

[Mike Sixel]

Miranda, Julien, Kiriloff, Severino, almost any hitter.....

Moving Wallner there makes zero sense, as his arm stops people from running. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I suspect that the Twins will try to bring Santana back if he will play for the same kind of a contract. A Lewis/Santina/Miranda every day 3B/!b/DH group would be a real strength of the team. RF will be open next year for Wallner, Larnach, or Martin, with Lee at 2B and Castro in LF.  

Martin in right would be really bad. Your arm is better. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Nelson Cruz. That's the only FA acquisition I can think of in recent Twins' history that's been better than Santana.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Miranda, Julien, Kiriloff, Severino, almost any hitter.....

Moving Wallner there makes zero sense, as his arm stops people from running. 

Also, Wallner is stiff. He's not a great athlete and I think the days of hiding people at 1B are over. Even at his age, Santana is a decent athlete manning the position. I don't see Wallner moving around that well.

[mikelink45]

There is no real issue there.  Miranda, Julien, Martin, Severino, Kiriloff...it is the easiest position to fill.  

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Martin in right would be really bad. Your arm is better. 

LOL, I wouldn't say that. Martin's arm is average for a LF, well below average for a RF, but not the absolute worst or anything. Averages 84.8mph with a max of 94.3mph. The max is right in line with good RF's. Martin doesn't seem to have the right instincts for when he needs to put extra on the throws.

[Doctor Gast]

Yes, Santana has been producing recently but is he the silver lining you say? I think not. IMO the tandem of Miranda & Kiriloff could well outperform Santana if they were given the opportunity. Kiriloff & Correa were our best hitters to begin the season until Kiriloff got hurt. Here is a snippet from a Star-Trib article.

"Tightness in Alex Kirilloff's lower back appears to be causing his slump, as injuries to his wrist and shoulder have in past seasons."

Twins promised Kiriloff to keep him at 1B/ DH during his vulnerable recovery & lack of playing time. But then they got Santana & cemented him at 1B. With Kiriloff's hot bat they needed his bat in the lineup. So they put him in the OF. Where he eventually hurt his back. If Kiriloff stayed at 1B/ DH, like they promised, he wouldn't have gotten hurt as soon or as bad or as long.

While Kiriloff has out-mashed Santana from the left side, Miranda has out-mashed him from the right side & we also have Julien. 1B defense is icing on the cake for any slugging 1B but production is what is really important. Any minimizing at 1B defense of our options is due to the Twins lack of opportunities  given to them. But can be quickly resolved with a little bit more considerations. We also have Severino in AAA on the 40-man, who needs to get his feet wet. Lewis was also suggested as a possibility. 1B has been a non-issue.

 

 

 

 

  

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Why do switch hitters that are far superior from the right side continue to switch hit?

Maybe they are even worse facing RHPs from the right side(?)

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yes, Santana has been producing recently but is he the silver lining you say? I think not. IMO the tandem of Miranda & Kiriloff could well outperform Santana if they were given the opportunity. Kiriloff & Correa were our best hitters to begin the season until Kiriloff got hurt. Here is a snippet from a Star-Trib article.

"Tightness in Alex Kirilloff's lower back appears to be causing his slump, as injuries to his wrist and shoulder have in past seasons."

Twins promised Kiriloff to keep him at 1B/ DH during his vulnerable recovery & lack of playing time. But then they got Santana & cemented him at 1B. With Kiriloff's hot bat they needed his bat in the lineup. So they put him in the OF. Where he eventually hurt his back. If Kiriloff stayed at 1B/ DH, like they promised, he wouldn't have gotten hurt as soon or as bad or as long.

While Kiriloff has out-mashed Santana from the left side, Miranda has out-mashed him from the right side & we also have Julien. 1B defense is icing on the cake for any slugging 1B but production is what is really important. Any minimizing at 1B defense of our options is due to the Twins lack of opportunities  given to them. But can be quickly resolved with a little bit more considerations. We also have Severino in AAA on the 40-man, who needs to get his feet wet. Lewis was also suggested as a possibility. 1B is a non issue.

 

 

 

 

  

Kirilloff always has an excuse. Even if Kirilloff as good as you think he is, Miranda is just as good against RHP as Kirilloff is so there's no reason to push Kirilloff into the lineup, and it's not like you could count on Kirilloff to produce for more than 150-200 PA between "injuries" during the season. A career 0.1 WAR guy in 249 games and 884 plate appearances no matter how you look at it. Either Kirilloff hides his "injury" from the team and produces poorly or he reveals his injury and spends 6 weeks to 6 months on the IL. Choose your 0 WAR production method.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Nelson Cruz. That's the only FA acquisition I can think of in recent Twins' history that's been better than Santana.

Don't forget about All-Star Willi Castro

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Carlos Santana's UZR is average. His RF/9 is low. His DRS is good and his OAA is great, but like this site is so apt to do, we find the very best metric, even if it's unreliable, for a player and treat it as gospel. Santana's been good this year.

MIRANDA IS NOT A PLATOON CANDIDATE. At all. Like 0%, and it's super easy to discover that with 30sec of Fangraphs' split tool. I've seen Miranda be noted as a potential platoon guy over and over and over on this site. I guess it's out of absolute desperation to justify keeping Kirilloff on the roster or something?

wRC+
Career vs. LHP = 108, vs. RHP = 120
2024 vs. LHP = 87, vs. RHP 177
2023 vs. LHP = 56, vs. RHP 57
2022 vs. LHP = 132, vs. RHP 110

DRS and OAA are simply superior to decrepit metrics like UZR and RF/9.

And I'm pretty sure the suggestion here is to have Miranda as the RHP-side of the platoon, at least for this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

43 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff always has an excuse. Even if Kirilloff as good as you think he is, Miranda is just as good against RHP as Kirilloff is so there's no reason to push Kirilloff into the lineup, and it's not like you could count on Kirilloff to produce for more than 150-200 PA between "injuries" during the season. A career 0.1 WAR guy in 249 games and 884 plate appearances no matter how you look at it. Either Kirilloff hides his "injury" from the team and produces poorly or he reveals his injury and spends 6 weeks to 6 months on the IL. Choose your 0 WAR production method.

Yeah excuses excuses Kiriloff should be able to play with a bad back & maintain his production. He's probably faking it. What are they thinking of? what's he still doing on the IL? Why are the Twins criticizing him for playing hurt? A bad back does make a difference, Mr Bean. To properly evaluate a player you have to throw out the games he's been hurt (which is most of the last 3 yrs, that's why his WAR is low)) & look at the time when he's healthy which is great even after long periods of off time. At this point, my method is like Lewis, Buxton & Correa the focus needs to be to keep him healthy not trying to get his bat in the line-up outside his health limits. Now that his structural injuries have passed, his soft-tissue vulnerability will also pass & will be glad that we haven't given up on him or regret that we did.

[William K Johnson]

3 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I've long been drawn to the idea of transitioning Wallner or Larnach (particularly Wallner) into a first baseman, but the front office doesn't seem interested in trying either of them there. Also, Kepler likely leaving in the offseason makes keeping Wallner and Larnach in the cOF even more important.

Wallner's arm is too good for first base.  Larnach may be a better option.