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Signed to a one-year, $5.25 million contract this February, veteran first baseman Carlos Santana has been the gem of the Twins' offseason acquisitions, sporting a .245/.329/.433 line with 78 hits, 18 doubles, 14 home runs and a 117 wRC+ over 359 plate appearances. Being one of the best-hitting first basemen in baseball and a steady switch-hitting cog in the middle of the Twins lineup has been his main source of value.
However, he has also been one of the best defensive players at the position, netting 10 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA), which places him first in the AL and second only behind Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, who has 12. The sure-handed 38-year-old plays balls down the line and in-between first and second base exceptionally. He also possesses one of the best gloves in the game and a natural knack for scooping errant throws.
Santana has been a silver lining free agent signing from an offseason where organization decision-makers essentially had both hands tied behind their back from a financial flexibility standpoint. He has become the team's everyday first baseman, hitting against both left and right-handed starting pitchers. However, that wasn't the team's initial plan. Santana was set to receive the bulk of opportunities. Yet, he was also supposed to split time with the left-handed hitting Alex Kirilloff. Santana is far superior from the right side of the plate, evidenced by his splits below:
- Versus RHP - .224/.324/.384, 272 plate appearances, 53 hits, 14 doubles, six home runs, 104 wRC+
- Versus LHP - .307/.358/.580, 95 plate appearances, 27 hits, six doubles, six home runs, 162 wRC+
Santana has performed 62% better than the league average while hitting right-handed, and the club's initial plan was to maximize his exceptional performance from that side of the plate. However, Kirilloff's subpar performance at the plate and in the field (and eventual placement on the 10-day IL with a back injury) have led to him essentially being a nonfactor. The 26-year-old left-handed bat could theoretically return from the injured list sometime soon and reenter the lineup as Santana's platoon partner. But should the team actively pursue that option while contending with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals for the AL Central crown and potential Wild Card seeding? It feels iffy.
With Kirilloff possessing little to no present or future value for the Twins, does the organization have a backup plan for Santana at first base if he struggles significantly at the plate or sustains an injury that keeps him out for an extended period? Let's take a look.
José Miranda
At first glance, the most natural replacement for the one-time All-Star would be Miranda. The resurgent 26-year-old has demonstrated a respectable glove and understanding of first base and its nuances, posting a 1 OAA over 51 1/3 innings played at the position. Since Kirilloff was placed on the IL in mid-June, Miranda has been the only position player to patrol first base other than Santana, making five starts at the position over the past month. Miranda has spent most of his time playing third base due to Royce Lewis needing to miss extended time with various soft tissue injuries. However, with the expectation that he and Lewis will return from their respective injuries this Friday, he could be in line for more time at first base, particularly when the team faces right-handed starting pitchers.
Miranda is Santana's most plausible back up option. Performing 50% better than average at the plate, Miranda has the bat skills and refined defensive acumen to play extended time at the position. Also, if Santana were to leave the Twins this offseason, Miranda could make sense as the team's long-term solution at the position. He would also work well in a platoon role, which takes us to our next candidate.
Edouard Julien
Julien has long existed in Twins fans' collective consciousness as a first base option, well in advance of his debut at the position last season against the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug. 22. However, sightings of the left-handed-hitting French Canadian playing the position have come few and far between, as he played only 17 1/3 innings at the position in the majors over 172 total career games. In theory, Julien would suffice as a platoon first baseman with Santana or Miranda. However, his production at the plate has regressed to the point where there is genuine concern over whether he will hit well enough to stay in the majors long term.
Also, his glove and overall range at second base have improved so much that a significant amount of his value lies in his defensive acumen amid his struggles at the plate. Again, Julien makes sense as a first baseman, as he draws walks, (theoretically) hits for power, and has a high strikeout rate. However, he needs to show substantial improvements at the plate if he wants to be considered a viable MLB player, let alone an option at a spot where one's ability to contribute at the plate is a requirement, not a luxury. Julien has a brighter future than Kirilloff and is more likely to make an impact on the Twins down the stretch. Nevertheless, he would be a less-than-ideal option at first base, even if he is the team's third-best option, as long as Kirilloff's career with the Twins is in limbo.
There's no obvious, long-term solution at first base for the organization right now. They can address that this winter, though. Right now, while they're stretched a little bit thin, Santana is a source of good feeling and good production, and Miranda is a solid secondary option. The rest will take care of itself, with time and the vagaries of the offseason.
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