Do The Twins Have Any Viable First Base Options Beyond Carlos Santana?

[bean5302]

44 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

DRS and OAA are simply superior to decrepit metrics like UZR and RF/9.

And I'm pretty sure the suggestion here is to have Miranda as the RHP-side of the platoon, at least for this year. 

DRS and UZR use the exact same data set from BIS. UZR is not the same as Total Zone so talking about UZR being decrepit while praising DRS isn't rational.

Suggesting the use of Miranda against RHP and Kirilloff against LHP? That's not what was being suggested, and that would make even less sense.

DRS doesn't cap difficulty level adjustments, and it breaks the data set down into more precise batted ball data, even if the batted ball data from BIS isn't exact enough to warrant the tolerance DRS attempts to achieve. Basically, DRS has the potential to have a bunch of extra noise in their factors. UZR caps the adjustments for difficult plays made or easy plays missed, and UZR tosses data from extreme shifts. UZR is more stable than DRS, but DRS may be better or worse on any given player due to more aggressive adjustments to value. Fangraphs isn't infallible, but there's good reason they chose to use UZR for WAR over DRS, which Baseball Reference uses for WAR. Using a single defensive metric, especially in small sample sizes of less than 2 full seasons (with the same home stadium for OF) is just asking for poor results. OAA is the new kid on the block, but it's the least stable of any of the new big metrics. OAA is all over the place. Using it stand alone is nuts, IMHO.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah excuses excuses Kiriloff should be able to play with a bad back & maintain his production.

He might hit when he's healthy but he's not a good fielder anywhere even when he's healthy. He's about to start the arbitration process which will quickly make him more expensive than he's worth. He (currently) still has his option which makes him a decent depth player for one more year.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah excuses excuses Kiriloff should be able to play with a bad back & maintain his production. He's probably faking it. What are they thinking of? what's he still doing on the IL? Why are the Twins criticizing him for playing hurt? A bad back does make a difference, Mr Bean. To properly evaluate a player you have to throw out the games he's been hurt (which is most of the last 3 yrs, that's why his WAR is low)) & look at the time when he's healthy which is great even after long periods of off time. At this point, my method is like Lewis, Buxton & Correa the focus needs to be to keep him healthy not trying to get his bat in the line-up outside his health limits. Now that his structural injuries have passed, his soft-tissue vulnerability will also pass & will be glad that we haven't given up on him or regret that we did.

It does not matter why Kirilloff is hurt or how legitimate the injury is. He misses huge portions of the season every year, and when he does play, he's been bad. You arguing that maybe, for the first time in his MLB career that Kirilloff will either
A) not be hurt or
B) actually tell the team how hurt he is
and, that C) if he's actually playing while not under condition A or B that he'll be good enough to warrant a roster position as a platoon only DH seems far fetched. He's ARB2 and out of options after this year. In 900 plate appearances, he has generated ZERO WAR. Literally, you could replace him with any team's AAA 1B and they'd have been just as good as Kirilloff over the past 3 years.

[1985Fan]

This year it’s Miranda and Santana at first. I don’t trust Miranda’s defense at first long term. Next year they need to consider Severino, or Jeffers as #1 options, then Larnach, Wallner, and other internal options #2.
Staying internal next year would give some of the above mentioned guys a chance at a roster spot and fill a need. Do not bring back 40-year old Santana or go outside the org for a first baseman. Save all the prospect capital they have for a top of the rotation SP next offseason and fill the rest of the holes internally. 

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He might hit when he's healthy but he's not a good fielder anywhere even when he's healthy. He's about to start the arbitration process which will quickly make him more expensive than he's worth. He (currently) still has his option which makes him a decent depth player for one more year.

He's not going to get poop in arbitration since he's never healthy. Cost isn't an issue at all, just health. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

DRS and OAA are simply superior to decrepit metrics like UZR and RF/9.

And I'm pretty sure the suggestion here is to have Miranda as the RHP-side of the platoon, at least for this year. 

I'm not even suggesting a platoon. I just think Miranda could get more playing time at 1B against RHPs. Santana deserves the bulk of opportunities and will get them.

Edited July 26, 2024 by Cody Schoenmann

[Craig Arko]

It seems like the consensus answer is: yes.

[wabene]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins promised Kiriloff to keep him at 1B/ DH during his vulnerable recovery & lack of playing time. But then they got Santana & cemented him at 1B. With Kiriloff's hot bat they needed his bat in the lineup. So they put him in the OF. Where he eventually hurt his back. If Kiriloff stayed at 1B/ DH, like they promised, he wouldn't have gotten hurt as soon or as bad or as long.

This is a story I haven't seen anywhere else. I question it's veracity.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

This is a story I haven't seen anywhere else. I question is veracity.

There was a lot of Twins' talk about Kiriloff starting his off-season conditioning in Jan/ '24 & what shape he'd be in to start the season & limit his duties to 1B/ DH. Funny I couldn't find any sign of news pertaining to his condition prior to spring training. Only thing I found was a Rotoballer

 

8 months agoMinnesota Twins first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff will likely see more time at first base in 2024 in an effort to limit injuries. Of course, he is also an option at designated hitter. The 26-year-old has a history of shoulder and wrist injuries and has appeared in just 192 games across three big-league seasons, including 88 in the 2023 campaign. That said, he was productive when healthy as Kirilloff hit .270 with 11 home runs and a .793 OPS across 319 plate appearances a season ago, production that graded out 20% superior to the league average, as per his 120 wRC+. Given his positional versatility and production in 2024, Kirilloff could be a sneaky late-round fantasy option despite a history of injury troubles.--Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller     

[wabene]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

There was a lot of Twins' talk about Kiriloff starting his off-season conditioning in Jan/ '24 & what shape he'd be in to start the season & limit his duties to 1B/ DH. Funny I couldn't find any sign of news pertaining to his condition prior to spring training. Only thing I found was a Rotoballer

 

8 months agoMinnesota Twins first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff will likely see more time at first base in 2024 in an effort to limit injuries. Of course, he is also an option at designated hitter. The 26-year-old has a history of shoulder and wrist injuries and has appeared in just 192 games across three big-league seasons, including 88 in the 2023 campaign. That said, he was productive when healthy as Kirilloff hit .270 with 11 home runs and a .793 OPS across 319 plate appearances a season ago, production that graded out 20% superior to the league average, as per his 120 wRC+. Given his positional versatility and production in 2024, Kirilloff could be a sneaky late-round fantasy option despite a history of injury troubles.--Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller     

Maybe, but that's just a fantasy baseball site. Looking over other articles including Gleeman who covers only the Twins, there has been no mention of a move to 1st to limit injuries. In fact his shoulder injury last season that shut him down and led to surgery occurred when he dove while playing 1st base.

With the exception of catcher, I don't think any position is more likely to cause injury than other positions. Of course this has been discussed plenty on this site.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, wabene said:

Maybe, but that's just a fantasy baseball site. Looking over other articles including Gleeman who covers only the Twins, there has been no mention of a move to 1st to limit injuries. In fact his shoulder injury last season that shut him down and led to surgery occurred when he dove while playing 1st base.

For some reason those articles have vanished, maybe it was a sub-topic to a bigger topic. The source of that article was Aaron Gleeman- The Athletic

I've never heard that story before, I doubt its veracity.

[Riverbrian]

Santana is a viable first base option beyond Miranda. 

[stringer bell]

Edouard Julien could be a platoon option at first I suppose. The 2024 version of Miranda should be playing just about every day and if he can continue to produce when moving between first, third and DH, he should get plenty of reps at first and mostly against right handed pitching (reverse splits).

I don't see the need to convert Wallner or Larnach to first base. Both are decent corner outfielders and Wallner has that plus-plus arm and the Twins will need another corner outfield spot filled next year when Max Kepler exits.

Carlos Santana has been an outstanding acquisition and he is holding his own in the battle vs. Father Time, but Father Time is undefeated. I'd prefer the team doesn't slot in a 39-year-old guy in 2025. 

[terrydactyls]

20 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Nelson Cruz. That's the only FA acquisition I can think of in recent Twins' history that's been better than Santana.

I have no idea what a bench coach does but I would sure like to see the Twins offer Cruz that title.  He would probably add ten wins to the team just because of his presence.

[terrydactyls]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

DRS and UZR use the exact same data set from BIS. UZR is not the same as Total Zone so talking about UZR being decrepit while praising DRS isn't rational.

Suggesting the use of Miranda against RHP and Kirilloff against LHP? That's not what was being suggested, and that would make even less sense.

DRS doesn't cap difficulty level adjustments, and it breaks the data set down into more precise batted ball data, even if the batted ball data from BIS isn't exact enough to warrant the tolerance DRS attempts to achieve. Basically, DRS has the potential to have a bunch of extra noise in their factors. UZR caps the adjustments for difficult plays made or easy plays missed, and UZR tosses data from extreme shifts. UZR is more stable than DRS, but DRS may be better or worse on any given player due to more aggressive adjustments to value. Fangraphs isn't infallible, but there's good reason they chose to use UZR for WAR over DRS, which Baseball Reference uses for WAR. Using a single defensive metric, especially in small sample sizes of less than 2 full seasons (with the same home stadium for OF) is just asking for poor results. OAA is the new kid on the block, but it's the least stable of any of the new big metrics. OAA is all over the place. Using it stand alone is nuts, IMHO.

This is what I love about the age of advanced metrics.  You can pick out any three-letter acronym (some with a plus or minus sign for extra proof of validity) that gets results you need to "prove" your point of view or "disprove" someone else's.  Or you can just create a new one if you have the time.  And no one can say you're wrong because you have "statistics" to prove your theory.  Below is what the University of Cambridge had to say about statistics (and it's satire, but true).

Statistics • ‘Statistics is the art of never having to say you’re wrong.’

‘ . . . mysterious, sometimes bizarre, manipulations performed upon the collected data of an experiment in order to obscure the fact that the results have no generalizable meaning for humanity. Commonly, computers are used, lending an additional aura of unreality to the proceedings.'

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

DRS and UZR use the exact same data set from BIS. UZR is not the same as Total Zone so talking about UZR being decrepit while praising DRS isn't rational.

Suggesting the use of Miranda against RHP and Kirilloff against LHP? That's not what was being suggested, and that would make even less sense.

DRS doesn't cap difficulty level adjustments, and it breaks the data set down into more precise batted ball data, even if the batted ball data from BIS isn't exact enough to warrant the tolerance DRS attempts to achieve. Basically, DRS has the potential to have a bunch of extra noise in their factors. UZR caps the adjustments for difficult plays made or easy plays missed, and UZR tosses data from extreme shifts. UZR is more stable than DRS, but DRS may be better or worse on any given player due to more aggressive adjustments to value. Fangraphs isn't infallible, but there's good reason they chose to use UZR for WAR over DRS, which Baseball Reference uses for WAR. Using a single defensive metric, especially in small sample sizes of less than 2 full seasons (with the same home stadium for OF) is just asking for poor results. OAA is the new kid on the block, but it's the least stable of any of the new big metrics. OAA is all over the place. Using it stand alone is nuts, IMHO.

Fangraphs has used OAA since 2016, and like I've said before no serious baseball analyst or sabermetrician has used UZR in years. That's just reality. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

For some reason those articles have vanished, maybe it was a sub-topic to a bigger topic. The source of that article was Aaron Gleeman- The Athletic

I've never heard that story before, I doubt its veracity.

Kirilloff got put on the IL for his shoulder at the end of July last season. He played a grand total of 12 innings in the outfield in all of July, and only 1 inning after July 14. 

[Doctor Gast]

22 hours ago, roger said:

Although not an option this year, there have been frequent sightings of Keaschall at first base over the past few weeks.  May be a good option to platoon beginning next year.

IMO a healthy Keaschall is a ridiculous waste of defensive talent at 1B. But leave it to the Twins to do just that.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Also, Wallner is stiff. He's not a great athlete and I think the days of hiding people at 1B are over. Even at his age, Santana is a decent athlete manning the position. I don't see Wallner moving around that well.

At his age he’s the best defensive 1B in the A.L. ……he deserves real credit IMO…….

Julien may never play in the Show for the TWINS again after this weekend. Him being a 1B is brought up here routinely - not happening. If the Team thought he had any potential of filling that roll he’d be getting “some” reps there in St Paul 

With Lee now & Keaschall ready by ‘26 to fit in somewhere …….Castro through ‘25 at least, I think Julien is part of a “change of scenery” trade in a package for some immediate pitching help in our Pen. Eddie struck out looking 3 straight times the other day - that’s gotta rival Margot’s pinch hit streak - struck out looking the next day as well. He’s got a problem and may benefit from some fresh surroundings?

Miranda is the obvious everyday 1B going forward for the club unless his offense completely disappears.

IF Julien has any chance at 2B via some miraculous comeback at the plate in ‘25, Lee to 3B and Lewis to 1B occasionally and LF mostly could be a good move as well.

[yeahyabetcha]

How about moving Royce Lewis to 1b next year?

[Joe Schmitt]

The arbitration process is designed to pay players more in part based on seniority, so Kiriloff will get more expensive every year.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Fangraphs has used OAA since 2016

Huh?

https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/

 

Unless their own description of fWAR is out of date, Fangraphs still uses UZR for all positions except catcher, where they basically throw up their hands and give up.

I do agree UZR is worthless though. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Fangraphs has used OAA since 2016, and like I've said before no serious baseball analyst or sabermetrician has used UZR in years. That's just reality. 

Fangraphs retroactively adjusted their fWARs. OAA wasn't even available on Fangraphs until 2022.
3/31/22 - (OAA now available on Fangraphs) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcast-oaa-is-now-available-on-fangraphs/
4/21/22 - (UZR component replaced with RAA/OAA) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Fangraphs retroactively adjusted their fWARs. OAA wasn't even available on Fangraphs until 2022.
3/31/22 - (OAA now available on Fangraphs) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcast-oaa-is-now-available-on-fangraphs/
4/21/22 - (UZR component replaced with RAA/OAA) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

And they're still using UZR.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Fangraphs retroactively adjusted their fWARs. OAA wasn't even available on Fangraphs until 2022.
3/31/22 - (OAA now available on Fangraphs) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcast-oaa-is-now-available-on-fangraphs/
4/21/22 - (UZR component replaced with RAA/OAA) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

From that second link, I guess you could argue semantics with what I wrote but if you're looking at any fWAR numbers since 2016 they don't factor in UZR any more. 

Quote

Retroactive to the 2016 season, we have swapped out the Range component of UZR for the Statcast metric Fielding Runs Prevented, which is Outs Above Average (OAA) converted to runs above average.

And from here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-fangraphs-war-update/

Quote

UZR will continue to be calculated on FanGraphs through the end of the 2025 season. Today’s changes are retroactive to the 2016 season.Here is the complete list of what is included in this update:

The catcher blocking component of Statcast’s Fielding Run Value has been added

• UZR’s ARM runs above average has been replaced with the arm component of Statcast’s Fielding Run Value
• DRS’ stolen base prevented runs above average has been replaced with the catcher throwing component of Statcast’s Fielding Run Value
• Ultimate Base Running and Weighted Grounded into Double Play Runs have been replaced with Statcast’s baserunning metric (labeled XBR)
• UZR’s Double-Play Runs has been removed

Everything is from Statcast now, and retroactive to 2016. UZR will not be available after next season. 

[USAFChief]

33 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

From that second link, I guess you could argue semantics with what I wrote but if you're looking at any fWAR numbers since 2016 they don't factor in UZR any more. 

And from here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-fangraphs-war-update/

Everything is from Statcast now, and retroactive to 2016. UZR will not be available after next season. 

They're still using UZR. They changed out the range factor OF UZR. They didn't stop using UZR.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They're still using UZR. They changed out the range factor OF UZR. They didn't stop using UZR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-fangraphs-war-update/

[mrcharlie]

On 7/26/2024 at 10:12 AM, bean5302 said:

Carlos Santana's UZR is average. His RF/9 is low. His DRS is good and his OAA is great, but like this site is so apt to do, we find the very best metric, even if it's unreliable, for a player and treat it as gospel. Santana's been good this year.

MIRANDA IS NOT A PLATOON CANDIDATE. At all. Like 0%, and it's super easy to discover that with 30sec of Fangraphs' split tool. I've seen Miranda be noted as a potential platoon guy over and over and over on this site. I guess it's out of absolute desperation to justify keeping Kirilloff on the roster or something?

wRC+
Career vs. LHP = 108, vs. RHP = 120
2024 vs. LHP = 87, vs. RHP 177
2023 vs. LHP = 56, vs. RHP 57
2022 vs. LHP = 132, vs. RHP 110

I don't know of anyone writing in defense of kirilloff here or otherwise.   Miranda thus far has had one fine season ('22) and flashes of greatness this season.  His fielding is what is limiting him, not his batting.  Fulltime DH is not the answer given the desires to rotate others in there.  I see him getting plenty of AB's for Lewis and Santana along with DH.  Trying to find playing time for Miranda is a good problem to have, and until his fielding at 1b improves he has no every day position.

[arby58]

On 7/26/2024 at 11:30 AM, jkcarew said:

Why do switch hitters that are far superior from the right side continue to switch hit?

It's about pitch and spin recognition. When you've been facing right handed pitchers from the opposite batters box for your whole life, it is not so easy to adjust. I remember when Aaron Hicks briefly stopped switch hitting - turned out even as bad as he was a switch hitter, he was worse batting only from one side of the plate.

[dxpavelka]

On 7/26/2024 at 11:06 AM, Joe Schmitt said:

Two weeks into the season, if you had told me that we would be having a conversation about how we could survive with Santana, I wouldn't have believed you. What a great pickup he has been.

Same thing as Solano last year.