Will Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance and Payroll Limitations Impact Twins Trade Deadline?

[Cody Christie]

As the trade deadline approaches, the Twins front office is in a difficult situation. Attendance is down at Target Field, and ownership has limited payroll entering the season. So, how will the club make meaningful moves?

Image courtesy of Melissa Berman, Twins Daily

The 2024 MLB trade deadline is just over two weeks away, and front offices will be fielding calls on players throughout the organization. The Twins enter the All-Star break with more than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, and are still within striking distance of Cleveland for the AL Central title. If the front office wants to add players, there are multiple factors to consider, including current and future payroll limitations. So, how will the trade deadline be impacted by Target Field attendance and the Pohlad family’s decision to reduce payroll?

Payroll Limitations in 2024 and Beyond
The Twins’ front office has shown a tendency to target players with more than one year of team control. Unfortunately, Joe Pohlad and the ownership group decided to cut payroll by $30 million this offseason. This cut prevented the team from making significant offseason acquisitions, and even forced the club to trade long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to make payroll space. Minnesota has found ways to continue to win in 2024 despite the payroll drop, but the future is even murkier.

Next season, the Twins see some of their best players get a bump in pay. Pablo López is making $8.25 million this season, but is scheduled to receive a raise to $21.75 million in 2025. Carlos Correa gets a slight pay hike, an increase of $4 million, because of how his contract's total value was divided among its six seasons. There will also be multiple arbitration-eligible players who see a significant salary jump, including regulars like Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers. Minnesota’s front office must consider these projected salary increases when trading for players. 

Less Clarity on the TV Situation
For 2024, the Twins re-signed with Diamond Sports Group, the parent company for Bally Sports North. In 2023, Dave St. Peter said that the Twins made around $60 million in their television deal. Minnesota won’t announce how much the team is making in the current deal, but it is believed to be between $35-45 million. Even with this influx, the team failed to make any additional moves this winter to add payroll.

St. Peter is hopeful that games will be back on TV “soon,” with Comcast and Diamond Sports feuding since May 1.

"Yeah, there's all kinds of urgency. Certainly, the baseball team, which we're not a part of that negotiation, are urging all sides to come together and to get a deal done," St. Peter explains. "I do know there's some ongoing conversations, and I think that's good. I'm hopeful that you're gonna see Twins baseball back on Comcast soon."

Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance
During the winter, the Twins talked openly about expecting an increase in attendance for the 2024 season. Minnesota had seen a rise in attendance over the last two seasons, from 1.8 million in 2022 to 1.97 million last season. St. Peter talked at TwinsFest about anticipating home attendance exceeding 2 million for the first time since 2019. The team was coming off a division title and their first playoff series victory in two decades, so would only make sense for fan morale to be high.

Unfortunately, the team’s projections didn’t consider other factors, like the slashed payroll and television issues. Attendance is down by nearly 1,200 fans per game, compared to the same per-game figures through this point last season. They're averaging fewer than 22,000 fans per game so far, which makes it nearly impossible for the Twins to draw over 2 million fans on the season. They're 23rd in overall attendance and 21st in year-over-year attendance change. Lower television viewership leads to lower attendance by reducing fan engagement and enthusiasm, which will have payroll implications beyond the current season.

Minnesota is on pace to win more than 90 games and qualify for the playoffs for the second straight season, but ownership’s choices are starting to have long-term effects. 

Trade Deadline Outlook
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline when they believe there are clear roster needs. The Twins have needs this season, but the front office is in a tough payroll spot for 2024 and beyond. Minnesota stood pat at last year’s deadline, and they will likely do something similar this year, because of everything outlined above. 

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How will these issues impact the trade deadline? Will attendance improve at Target Field in the second half? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[IAMNFan]

Life is a series of decisions.  Those decisions have consequences.  Ownership appreciates value in the team every year.  Fans think operating budgets are meaningless to the owners.  Fans are wrong. 

It's an entertainment business.  The Twins have operated this way forever.  What makes you think they will change?

I remain hopeful that they will have a playoff appearance, but the odds that a move or 2 would push them over the "haves" is unlikely. It would take an incredible run by their core and its more likely key members of their core will be injured than performing at an elite level.

This is a Twins fan reality.  Enjoy watching good baseball instead of some of the garbage baseball we have endured.

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to see if they make any moves for rental players. You'd like to think they're in a better place long-term with where the organization is at and don't need to ensure they get extra control on whoever they bring in. It opens up the options you're looking at if you're willing to deal for rentals. Also lowers the prospect price.

[DJL44]

A positive feedback loop of apathy and lowered interest.

[Trov]

They could use a LH pen arm, and for the right price an upgrade at top end of rotation.  I am sure the team can make the money work for rental guys, but it is unlikely they would agree to take on much future payroll.  They may still look for controllable guys on arb year, where you have a pretty good idea what that budgets to be.  

I think there is little out there for high end arms though that are clear upgrade over Ober.  As an article pointed out, you need to be at his level or better to be an upgrade for playoffs. 

I do think the uncertainty for long term financial could play into taking on future money, but not rental guys.  It is not just the Twins own TV deal, but as other teams TV deals are up in air it affects the revenue sharing from those as well.  Teams split local TV deals about 50%, which makes sense as they are the other team playing, but as other teams contracts get cut or dropped that is less money to share as well. 

I do feel like the slow start and lack of TV for most people, I have Spectrum so get to see them, but my sisters do not. have affected interest in the team.  I think also the long run of Wolves affected early season too as many local sports fans that like both were more engaged in Wolves, I was for sure, than what was going on with Twins at the time. 

[silverslugger]

From an ownership perspective, this is the bed they've made, now they've got to sleep in it.  From a fan perspective, every event after the end of the final playoff game has been a disappointment, except the actual performance of the team.  12 games over at the break is meeting expectations on a team-wide level.

I, for one, am not expecting any movement at the deadline except for psaossibly a minor piece here or there.  

Finally, the sadder perspective is the overall trajectory and health of the game itself.  Mostly, from polarization of competitiveness, but that's a discussion for another day.

[BH67]

The Twins' current level of play will result in greater ticket sales in September as playoff anticipation will prove alluring. Also, many other clubs are seeing similar per-game attendance declines compared to 2023, so the emerging economic slowdown is likely a factor in this.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, silverslugger said:

Finally, the sadder perspective is the overall trajectory and health of the game itself.  Mostly, from polarization of competitiveness, but that's a discussion for another day.

Yeah, it's terrible when small market teams like the Royals, Guardians and Orioles have no chance because the large market Cubs, Angels and Mets buy all the good players.

[Road trip]

I wouldn't advocate this every year, but this year I think they need to roll with the players they have.  The busted TV deal and poor start (at least relative to Cleveland) led to lower attendance which leads to even lower revenue which means they can't even afford the players they have next year.

Can't/shouldn't be sellers with a playoff contending team.

Can't/shouldn't trade low-cost youngsters for a high quality rental when you need those youngsters next year after the Twins shed payroll yet again.

Beyond the can'ts/shouldn'ts above, the FO doesn't have a great track record exchanging prospects for rentals... and that is putting it kindly.

Grit your teeth, hope the existing players get/stay healthy, hope the youngsters and a few underperforming vets improve, and hope you somehow catch fire in October.  That's a lot of hope, and hope really shouldn't be a plan, but I don't see a lot of good alternatives unless you want to mortgage the future for a shot this year with a somewhat flawed team and very flawed organizational approach to increasing revenue (i.e., the broken tv deal).

[Karbo]

IMO attendance has been greatly effected by ownership telling all that payroll would be so drastically cut. It turned off many fans. Then the start of the season hurt, and about the time they started winning, cable companies cut off the games.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cody Christie said:

St. Peter is hopeful that games will be back on TV “soon,” with Comcast and Diamond Sports feuding since May 1.

"Soon" was about 2 months ago. After today we will be closer to the end of the season than we are to May 1.

[Patzky]

24 minutes ago, BH67 said:

The Twins' current level of play will result in greater ticket sales in September as playoff anticipation will prove alluring. Also, many other clubs are seeing similar per-game attendance declines compared to 2023, so the emerging economic slowdown is likely a factor in this.

The team is 'better' than 2023s in terms of win loss. Health has been a concern and in the last few days is even moreso. But really.. the tickets aren't grossly overpriced. The stadium is a great experience for the fans. The weather is some of the best in the country. There are young exciting stars already here (Lee, lewis) and soon to arrive (Rodriguez, Keaschall) There's local talent (Wallner and Varland) and another good draft class so far.

This is a good product that will likely surpass last year's product. A lot of whining going on that is unwarranted.

 

 

[mikelink45]

This team's ownership- leadership had the worst public relations I can remember.  Even Calvin didn't come out as bad as this years Twins - TV, early announcement that they would not spend - just a number of factors that really set back the Twins fans.  Then they did not get off to a good start and many were lost to the WNBA and other sports options or they just went out and enjoyed themselves elsewhere. 

[bean5302]

Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO.

Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.

[TwinkieFan4life]

I'm a high school teacher.  I run into very few young people that care about Twins baseball at all.  It is mind-blowing the Twins and baseball would deny in market people the opportunity to watch and connect with the athletes.  

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO.

Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.

Falvey told us all they were slashing payroll the first week of November. The World Series ended November 1. Falvey told us they were cutting payroll November 7th. Season ticket sales didn't have a chance to materialize before Falvey dumped a big old bucket of cold water on the offseason. Announcing a payroll decrease less than a month after you were eliminated from the playoffs after having won your first playoff game and series in basically 2 decades was an awful move, and many of us said at the time it was going to hurt them this season. It was predictable when Falvey first said it, and then they just doubled and tripled down on the worst PR campaign ever as the offseason moved along.

100% agree on Dave St Peter. Mind blowing that he still has that job.

[LambchoP]

I'm guessing the Twins do very little at the deadline. I don't think they're a good enough team to warrant trading away top prospects for rentals players when a first round sweep looks likely. Now if we could find a way to get a starter with another year or two of control they should jump on it. I'm not getting my hopes up though. They are going with the plan of" we don't need to catch Cleveland, we can get in with a wildcard spot. And we don't need to make any outside additions because of all the talent we have that will be coming off the IL in the second half."

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO.

Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.

Paragraph 2: Agreed

Paragraph 1: Nonconcur. Strongly.

They seemingly did everything in their power to damp down interest and enthusiasm at every turn all off season. 

[USAFChief]

As to the OP, the play is to go get Blake Snell.

But they won't. They'll add a reliever of modest value at modest cost.

[Mike Sixel]

Of course it will impact their decisions. It's a business

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

As to the OP, the play is to go get Blake Snell.

But they won't. They'll add a reliever of modest value at modest cost.

Agreed, but I'm not sure they even do that. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of course it will impact their decisions. It's a business

And it's pretty clear Dave St Peter outranks Derrick Falvey in the corporate pecking order.

[Road trip]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

As to the OP, the play is to go get Blake Snell.

But they won't. They'll add a reliever of modest value at modest cost.

I mean, if cost doesn't matter, sure, I'd love Snell.

But if they get him on August 1 he is still owed $10 million for the duration of the year, which the Twins claim they won't/can't spend.  And then there is next year's $30 million if he doesn't opt out.

The Giants are only 3 games out of the NL Wildcard so they aren't exactly in sell mode yet.  To talk them into it they will want....idk, 2 of the top 5 prospects in the system, plus a major league ready player like SWR?  Snell is great when healthy, but he's caviar for a family on a meatloaf budget.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

The team is 'better' than 2023s in terms of win loss. Health has been a concern and in the last few days is even moreso. But really.. the tickets aren't grossly overpriced. The stadium is a great experience for the fans. The weather is some of the best in the country. There are young exciting stars already here (Lee, lewis) and soon to arrive (Rodriguez, Keaschall) There's local talent (Wallner and Varland) and another good draft class so far.

This is a good product that will likely surpass last year's product. A lot of whining going on that is unwarranted.

 

 

I don't live in MN any more and this struck a chord with me. Why is attendance down? I get the frustration with ownership but it turns out that most of the moves are defensible, with, the possible exception of not retaining Sonny Gray since Polanco has been a complete bust in Seattle. More importantly, the team has done a great job integrating young, exciting players into the lineup and the team plays a fun to watch brand of baseball. I also get that they aren't available on TV so maybe that's driving less engagement by the occasional fan, but it shouldn't be impacting the hard core base. Maybe the answer is that the base just isn't big enough. 

This year's team is fun, and next year's opening day lineup is likely to include a few vets with Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Larnach and/or Wallner, and Martin all playing significant roles. , The rotation has 4 guys under 30, and we have a closer who throws 100 plus mph. This team seems like a good entertainment product worth watching in person. It also seems like a team worth emotional investment since they are likely to be competitive for the next few years. Put this team in Anaheim and they would draw 3 million easy. 

This a conundrum to those of us not living in MN. Hopefully this will change over the next month and into next year or the team will slide backward.  

 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't live in MN any more and this struck a chord with me. Why is attendance down?

I think it is more due to big picture trends than it is with the baseball team. Interest in baseball is declining among younger people (more interest in basketball and soccer as well as esports/video games). Older people who are interested in baseball are afraid of Minneapolis. Economic pressures may be keeping fans with fewer resources at home but that doesn't explain a decline in season ticket sales. TV does matter; the best advertisement for having fun at a Twins game is watching a game on television.

[LA Vikes Fan]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO.

Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.

I do find this interesting. I live in LA and the Dodgers sell 2.5m plus season tickets, get 3.7m in attendance, and could sell more, The Angels aren't far behind and they regularly stink. Both teams relentlessly market - coaching clinics, players out in the community, TV commercials, bobble head days, giveaways, deals with the local little leagues, tickets for the disadvantaged, t-shirt giveaways, etc. They drive engagement even though their TV situation is also messed up and not available except on cable and not on all systems. The Dodgers also have some disadvantages beause the stadium is old and outdated, the parking stinks, the tickets are expensive, there is little to no way to get there on public transportation, and it's a hassle to go to the game with the traffic and the parking.  Add to that the other summertime options in LA with the beaches, mountains, weekend posts in driving distance, etc. and it's a tough marketplace. Yes, the Southern Cal area is doing well economically but I haven't heard that the Twins Cities is suffering. Maybe I'm wrong there.  

We all should understand that the days when sports could market themselves just by holding the games are long over. That is particularly true for baseball. The Twins need to push the product and push it hard to be successful. Are they not doing that? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think it is more due to big picture trends than it is with the baseball team. Interest in baseball is declining among younger people (more interest in basketball and soccer as well as esports/video games). Older people who are interested in baseball are afraid of Minneapolis. Economic pressures may be keeping fans with fewer resources at home but that doesn't explain a decline in season ticket sales. TV does matter; the best advertisement for having fun at a Twins game is watching a game on television.

Thanks, and I agree with a lot of this. There is no question that interest amongst the 20 and 30 somethings is down, although I have three sons in their early 30s and two of them were quite avid baseball fans. Unfortunately for them, their team is the Angels. I do understand that the lack of baseball on TV is a real problem for the marginal fan engagement. It may be there are simply more people in Southern California, a larger Hispanic community to whom baseball is the number one sport after soccer, and those demographic factors make a huge difference. Also, both the Dodgers and the Angels are smart in that they get Japanese and Korean players, two huge communities in the LA area.

I find it very hard to understand why older people would be afraid of Minneapolis. I live in LA and Dodger Stadium is very close to downtown and some other not so savory areas. The local news strongly believes in the old adage that "if it bleeds it, it leads", so we see all kinds of interesting stuff on TV every day. Minneapolis seems like a cakewalk by comparison. Is the area around the stadium just that bad so people don't want to walk through it? The difference may be that Dodger Stadium has its own parking lots so you drive through some "interesting" parts of town but you park outside those areas.

[Patzky]

46 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

As to the OP, the play is to go get Blake Snell.

But they won't. They'll add a reliever of modest value at modest cost.

I think the Snell game against the Twins (and Webb and other returning) means the Giants aren't sellers.

[Original_JB]

Another straw on the camel's back IMO, is not only did they cut payroll, they didn't sell upper deck seats (you know, the cheaper ones) for the 1st two months of the season. Did they think people would just willingly pay more? How many people saw that and said, 'OK, we'll look again after school's out'? How many tickets did that move cost them?

[Original_JB]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think it is more due to big picture trends than it is with the baseball team. Interest in baseball is declining among younger people (more interest in basketball and soccer as well as esports/video games). Older people who are interested in baseball are afraid of Minneapolis. Economic pressures may be keeping fans with fewer resources at home but that doesn't explain a decline in season ticket sales. TV does matter; the best advertisement for having fun at a Twins game is watching a game on television.

Are season ticket sales down? I know overall sales are.