Will Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance and Payroll Limitations Impact Twins Trade Deadline?

[CRF]

If they do anything at all, it won't be much. They certainly won't go out and trade for a big name pitcher/player, it's just not going to happen with this ownership and FO. At best, they'll pull off a very minor deal or two, just to try and convince fans that they're making the effort. 

[nicksaviking]

Don't forget the slow start to the season, that too certainly is contributing to the lower attendance. Plenty of fans probably wrote them off, and without the ability to watch them on TV, likely have no idea the team got good all of a sudden. First impressions still mean a lot, especially when something is out of sight, out of mind.

Of course the lower payroll certainly aided in that slow start to the season.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I find it very hard to understand why older people would be afraid of Minneapolis.

I also find it very hard to understand but it's real. I will tell people I'm going to a Twins game and the immediate response from suburbanites is that I'm risking my life like it's Hanoi in 1968. It's even worse the further away you get from the metro.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I also find it very hard to understand but it's real. I will tell people I'm going to a Twins game and the immediate response from suburbanites is that I'm risking my life like it's Hanoi in 1968. It's even worse the further away you get from the metro.

It's every city. I live in Portland, and we know people that won't go into any part of the city. My neighborhood has a super low crime rate, and people ask if we have flack jackets....

Announcing you are cutting payroll during the playoffs is bad marketing. Letting St Peter open his mouth is bad marketing, as he often blames the fans. The Twins need new business leadership, but that's clearly not coming. If they add significant payroll, I'll be truly shocked.

 

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's every city. I live in Portland, and we know people that won't go into any part of the city. My neighborhood has a super low crime rate, and people ask if we have flack jackets....

Announcing you are cutting payroll during the playoffs is bad marketing. Letting St Peter open his mouth is bad marketing, as he often blames the fans. The Twins need new business leadership, but that's clearly not coming. If they add significant payroll, I'll be truly shocked.

 

Did they announce it during the playoffs? I thought it was reported early in the off-season. Their best shot at selling tickets is the playoffs when fans buy packages for next season to get a seat in the playoffs. That window is the key time to sell packages for 2024. Is it possible that poor future sales during the playoff push was a factor in their decision to cut payroll?

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

I'm a high school teacher.  I run into very few young people that care about Twins baseball at all.  It is mind-blowing the Twins and baseball would deny in market people the opportunity to watch and connect with the athletes.  

Do you think sports on television has a big impact on high school kids? Soccer wasn't big on television, but it's exploding in interest levels. Baseball has a reputation as boring. Old. Obsolete.

What would happen if the Twins gave away 2 sections of tickets to high schools for every game? What would happen if Twins minor leaguers showed up to local high school games? What would happen if the Twins actually marketed to teenagers instead of 4 year olds who have no money and grow out of the sport?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I also find it very hard to understand but it's real. I will tell people I'm going to a Twins game and the immediate response from suburbanites is that I'm risking my life like it's Hanoi in 1968. It's even worse the further away you get from the metro.

Minneapolis is viewed as an singular entity. Plenty of suburban people got caught up in the effects of the riots, and then the police shortage where crimes are rampant and they go unpunished. Friends who've watched their stuff get stolen and jails wouldn't even take the suspects who were arrested with outstanding felony warrants during COVID. I had suburban friends who were dining in a restaurant when bricks came through the windows during the riots. I had friends who were scared to death living in South Minneapolis as their garage was broken into and looted multiple times. I know a lot of service industry folks who are very concerned about working Uptown after having their friends held up at gunpoint for their tips, and those service workers make sure they park in the same ramps as the police typically park when working downtown events. One of my friends refuses to work at the Fillmore anymore. You walk the wrong direction, and you can find trouble. Car jackings were daily news events. One of my black friends was actually a little scared to come here on a visit because of reputation. She was disappointed to discover there was no excitement, just a really pretty city.

The reputation of Minneapolis is one of not caring about most crimes, and short staffed to deal with the crimes they do care about. Neighborhoods suburban folks used to live in and frequent had major violent crime issues recently (Uptown, South), and that impacts the perception of the city as a whole for a long time. Suburban and rural communities care about prosecuting crime, and they assume the lack of criminal prosecution is synonymous with high crime rates.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

Are season ticket sales down? I know overall sales are.

Yes. It's led to an expansion of season ticket holder options. For instance, the 40 game, Flex 40 and 80 plans are allowed to choose Club Level which was not the case before. Season ticket openings are everywhere in the stadium, and I've purchased them as late as a couple days before the start of the season with options in pretty much every single section.

[bean5302]

Oh, on the topic, no I don't think the attendance will impact the aggressiveness of the Twins at the deadline in any way. The Pohlad's have shown a willingness to try the spend money to make money approach recently, and if Falvey has a need, there will be support to get it done. The Twins are $25MM lower in payroll right now than they were last year. That's plenty of room for 1/3 of the season of salary.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Minneapolis is viewed as an singular entity. 

Actually, the further away you go the whole 7 county Metro area becomes a singular entity. I took a kids 4-H team to an event on a Sunday morning at an elementary school in Woodbury and my exurban parents were asking if that was safe.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's every city. I live in Portland, and we know people that won't go into any part of the city. My neighborhood has a super low crime rate, and people ask if we have flack jackets....

Announcing you are cutting payroll during the playoffs is bad marketing. Letting St Peter open his mouth is bad marketing, as he often blames the fans. The Twins need new business leadership, but that's clearly not coming. If they add significant payroll, I'll be truly shocked.

 

Yeah, it's a culture war thing. Even in little old Fargo ND it's a made up talking point:

https://www.inforum.com/news/fargo/is-downtown-fargo-safe-city-leaders-say-perception-doesnt-match-reality

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh, on the topic, no I don't think the attendance will impact the aggressiveness of the Twins at the deadline in any way. The Pohlad's have shown a willingness to try the spend money to make money approach recently, and if Falvey has a need, there will be support to get it done. The Twins are $25MM lower in payroll right now than they were last year. That's plenty of room for 1/3 of the season of salary.

When the owner of the team goes public saying they're cutting payroll to "right-size their business" there is no reason what-so-ever to believe they are going to get anywhere near their previous payroll. The Twins didn't sit on 25 million during the offseason with a plan to spend it at the deadline instead. No team would do that. They told us they aren't spending as much this year and it's time to start believing them. They aren't spending 150 mil.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

IMO attendance has been greatly effected by ownership telling all that payroll would be so drastically cut. It turned off many fans. Then the start of the season hurt, and about the time they started winning, cable companies cut off the games.

This is exactly it. And I don’t see it improving now that the Twins are out of sight, out of mind for so many people in the region.

The Twins will get a temporary boost if/when they make the playoffs because we Minnesota sports fans know when to hop on the bandwagon. Until then, not much will change. They’ll draw 30,000 against the well known good teams and 20,000 or less against anyone else. 

[Original_JB]

Out of their hands but injuries and 'iffy' play gives you:  "Come out and see AK... er Miran... er Carlos....er Brooks...er hey it's Pablo Day (ooh, he's not doing so good right now either).... We've got new snacks!!!!"

[Craig Arko]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think it is more due to big picture trends than it is with the baseball team. Interest in baseball is declining among younger people (more interest in basketball and soccer as well as esports/video games). Older people who are interested in baseball are afraid of Minneapolis. Economic pressures may be keeping fans with fewer resources at home but that doesn't explain a decline in season ticket sales. TV does matter; the best advertisement for having fun at a Twins game is watching a game on television.

Heh, I’m an older person and I live in Minneapolis. I don’t go downtown because it’s too f-ing expensive and discretionary income ain’t what it used to be. The last Twins games I’ve attended came with free (for me) tickets. It can be an expensive hobby and I prefer other expensive hobbies to drop my dough on.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

When the owner of the team goes public saying they're cutting payroll to "right-size their business" there is no reason what-so-ever to believe they are going to get anywhere near their previous payroll. The Twins didn't sit on 25 million during the offseason with a plan to spend it at the deadline instead. No team would do that. They told us they aren't spending as much this year and it's time to start believing them. They aren't spending 150 mil.

The Twins would have to add $75MM of AAV to get to that $25MM of cost you've quoted. I agree. The Twins are absolutely not going to add $75MM of AAV payroll at the deadline.

[bean5302]

55 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is exactly it. And I don’t see it improving now that the Twins are out of sight, out of mind for so many people in the region.

The Twins will get a temporary boost if/when they make the playoffs because we Minnesota sports fans know when to hop on the bandwagon. Until then, not much will change. They’ll draw 30,000 against the well known good teams and 20,000 or less against anyone else. 

So why was attendance bad 2022-2023 when the Twins were spending $150MM? Surely, since the Twins expanded payrolls all the fans should have lined up!

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

So why was attendance bad 2022-2023 when the Twins were spending $150MM? Surely, since the Twins expanded payrolls all the fans should have lined up!

The Twins ended up with a 78-84 record in 2022 and carried a sub-.500 record into the break in 2023. Yet attendance was improving because the team was improving. The team then decided to ruin all their momentum for 2024 by publicly stating early and often that they were cutting payroll.

27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins would have to add $75MM of AAV to get to that $25MM of cost you've quoted. I agree. The Twins are absolutely not going to add $75MM of AAV payroll at the deadline.

There's no reason to believe they're adding any significant payroll. They didn't sit on any substantial money during the offseason. The team is not spending. Falvey, St Peter, and Pohlad himself told us that. To expect them to spend any more than a couple million more at the deadline is actively ignoring what the team itself has been telling us since November of 2023. They don't have room to add. They've said it over and over.

[lecroy24fan]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. It's led to an expansion of season ticket holder options. For instance, the 40 game, Flex 40 and 80 plans are allowed to choose Club Level which was not the case before. Season ticket openings are everywhere in the stadium, and I've purchased them as late as a couple days before the start of the season with options in pretty much every single section.

I can add to this that the Flex 20 package I have added 107 and 108 this year. And the lower part of the sections are now available to pick from as well.

[Brandon]

I don’t think the Twins will add at the deadline because any upgrades available over what we already have are going to be expensive.  We have a high floor across the board on the team.  I can’t think of a spot on the team that I would consider a weakness.  So to upgrade we are essentially going from a 6 to an 8 or 9 on a 10 point scale at a high cost.  Why do that or pay it?  Also 21 million is coming off the books with Kepler, Farmer, and Santana.  3 million more if you want to count Theilbar too.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Out of their hands but injuries and 'iffy' play gives you:  "Come out and see AK... er Miran... er Carlos....er Brooks...er hey it's Pablo Day (ooh, he's not doing so good right now either).... We've got new snacks!!!!"

I dunno.. fifth or sixth best record in MLB.. guess the Phillies need to move here.

[Mike Sixel]

It's possible MSP is just not a baseball town at all.....Clearly being a good team isn't enough.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

So why was attendance bad 2022-2023 when the Twins were spending $150MM? Surely, since the Twins expanded payrolls all the fans should have lined up!

Attendance traditionally lags one year behind results. They were a bad team in 2021 and 2022. 

[D.C Twins]

10 hours ago, IAMNFan said:

Life is a series of decisions.  Those decisions have consequences.  Ownership appreciates value in the team every year.  Fans think operating budgets are meaningless to the owners.  Fans are wrong. 

It's an entertainment business.  The Twins have operated this way forever.  What makes you think they will change?

I remain hopeful that they will have a playoff appearance, but the odds that a move or 2 would push them over the "haves" is unlikely. It would take an incredible run by their core and its more likely key members of their core will be injured than performing at an elite level.

This is a Twins fan reality.  Enjoy watching good baseball instead of some of the garbage baseball we have endured.

[D.C Twins]

9 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

I'm a high school teacher.  I run into very few young people that care about Twins baseball at all.  It is mind-blowing the Twins and baseball would deny in market people the opportunity to watch and connect with the athletes.  

This...this...aaaaaaaaaaand.... THIS!

[tony&rodney]

The Twins made some egregious public relations gaffes last offseason beginning immediately after the World Series. The ongoing media debacle is a negative as well. I do not believe that the payroll (@$130 million) limitations hurts the team. Falvey was given a decent budget and had a number of options to improve the team last offseason. He chose to keep some guys, sit on others, make a couple of trades, and sign the players he wanted to fill out what he saw as the needs for the organization. The Twins did not miss out on anyone because of a lack of money, unless you thought that Falvey was in on Juan Soto.

The Twins have a pretty good club and have exceeded expectations to this point in the season. Falvey has struggled with deadline transactions but a decent relief pitcher seems like a possibility. The remainder of the season will play out in the hands of those players already in the organization. There is enough talent to overtake Cleveland. Injuries happen to every team but if management puts the right group together and trusts the call ups/ fill ins to do their job the Twins should be ok. Maybe Julien returns to the leadoff role he managed last year. Hopefully Correa, Buxton, Lewis, and Kepler lead the team's offense with steady pitching from Lopez, Ryan, and Ober.

Target Field is right next to the North Loop neighborhood which has many fine restaurants and fairly decent parking. When I drag my seven decade old carcass to a game I enjoy the neighborhood and the atmosphere at the games. I wish crime didn't exist at all, but hey this is The Americas ... founded, steeped in, and still selling violence as a way of life.

The first five games after the break may play with Falvey's head and push him to hold or make an attempt to add a rental. We should  not expect any large financial surprises. 

[bean5302]

35 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Attendance traditionally lags one year behind results. They were a bad team in 2021 and 2022. 

So it has to do with results rather than payroll, then?

But it also doesn't have to do with results because attendance was poor in 2021 after the restrictions started coming off and there are plenty of teams in MLB who have better attendance but worse results. Saying it's payroll isn't true because there are low payroll teams who draw much better than the Twins have as of late. Saying it's TV isn't true because there are other teams affected by the TV deal.

In good season ticket years, and season ticketholders are the absolute backbone of almost any team's attendance, and the Twins didn't announce the payroll cut before the end of the playoffs last year.
The TV debacle didn't start until into the start of the season at which point season ticket sales are almost dead.

The Twins are poor at marketing. Pure and simple. 

[Althebum82]

I'll admit I am part of the problem. 

It used to be an adventure and a treat to coordinate plans with family or friends and make the hour and a half journey paying a reasonable entry cost for big time entertainment.  Concessions can add on to both the experience and cost, but hey, it is still after all a "field" and you can bring your own from home if you like.  

In the end, it was nice if the Twins win, but it ultimately didn't matter.  I would always expect a great experience.

Rarely seeing on TV, or even worse being told I have to watch it on a streaming service or app has just turned things sour for me.  I do check in on Gameday once and awhile or try to listen to radio, but there's not much joy in using those options.

So, yeah I have paid more attention to the Wolves than ever before, as well as the Lynx (or god help me the Indiana Fever).  While my perception of Portland is even more horrible, the idea of coming to Minneapolis to endure political stupidity and violence getting in the way of great parks, theatres, and also Target Field has become too much for me.

Blah.

[Mike Sixel]

There's less violence than ever. The stats are clear on this. 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don’t think the Twins will add at the deadline because any upgrades available over what we already have are going to be expensive.  We have a high floor across the board on the team.  I can’t think of a spot on the team that I would consider a weakness.  So to upgrade we are essentially going from a 6 to an 8 or 9 on a 10 point scale at a high cost.  Why do that or pay it?  Also 21 million is coming off the books with Kepler, Farmer, and Santana.  3 million more if you want to count Theilbar too.

C position with Vasquez playing half the games is a weakness.