A Royce Lewis Extension Would Need to Happen Soon. Can the Twins Execute One?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Despite the injuries that have stunted his progress and disrupted the value he's provided the team, Royce Lewis is one of the most explosive Twins players in recent memory. Can the team find a number they're willing to pay, that will also convince Lewis (and agent Scott Boras) to sign on the line?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins selected Royce Lewis with the first overall pick in the 2017 Major League Baseball Draft. He was immediately a top-100 prospect, and seen as an athletic freak who would certainly influence the game at whatever level he competed. His road to the big leagues has been winding, but he’s here, and he looks incredible.

Having had a more productive start to his career than almost anyone in history, Lewis is in position to get extremely rich, if he can just stay a little bit more healthy. The Minnesota Twins would love to wrap up his services for the next decade. Lewis will become arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player after this season, and he'll be a free agent in the fall of 2028, after his age-29 season.

Should the Twins approach Lewis and Boras about a contract extension, the discussion would be something in the realm of a 10-year deal. That would take Lewis through his age-35 season and buy out the entirety of his arbitration, as well as six years of free agency. Certainly, that’s not going to come cheap, but they do have some leverage.

Despite making his major-league debut in 2022, Lewis has played a total of just 91 big-league games. Having dealt with multiple ACL injuries, an oblique strain, a hamstring strain, and a significant quad strain, the toll taken on his young frame is considerable. How he ages in that regard remains to be seen, and paying so much, well ahead of time would constitute the Twins buying virtually all of the risk--in exchange for getting his potential value at a significant discount.

Finding a comp for Lewis is difficult. The Arizona Diamondbacks extended Corbin Carroll on an eight-year deal just 32 games into his major-league career, but Carroll is 23 years old. Julio Rodríguez got a 12-year deal last season at 22 years old, but was coming off a Rookie of the Year award. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year deal this offseason that will pay him $288 million, and he just recently turned 24 years old.

The range of outcomes for Lewis on both years and dollars is vast. Fixing that spectrum of possibilities by agreeing on a single number is tough. We can roughly project what Lewis has a chance to make in arbitration over four seasons; it should come in around $50 million. For six seasons at free-agent rates, you'd expect a player of his caliber to make almost $200 million.

Obviously, the Twins are in no position to hand out a $250-million extension right now, but here's where we factor in the discount Lewis and Boras would have to accept to get a deal done, thereby avoiding the risk that further injury would significantly dampen the superstar's earning potential. Instead of forking over $50 million in the next four years, a deal should see the Twins pay only about $40 million, and over the six years after that, they should be willing to shell out $150 million. That comes out to 10 years and $190 million.

Whether that would move the needle enough for Lewis, or for Boras (who likes to entertain free agency in an effort to maximize earnings), remains to be seen. Aaron Judge debuted late, similarly to Lewis, and has dealt with injuries. He had a substantially greater track record by the time he reached free agency, of course, and his historic 2022 timed out nicely for him, but he inked a nine-year deal worth $360 million to stay in New York. That sort of money is something an extension candidate would be passing up, but they are handed much more certainty at the forefront of their careers.

For now, Lewis continues to make the major-league minimum of $746k in 2024. He can start to truly cash in next year, though, and he did sign for a $6.725 million bonus when drafted. It may be of interest to the talented third baseman to lock down a payday early on and settle in with an organization he has said he loves. Pairing Lewis with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo López into the future seems like a great plan of attack.

There is a possibility that Lewis intends to bet on himself and his health, and despite being 30 years old when he would hit free agency, a gigantic deal will be out there for any player producing at the pace he has shown thus far. The question is whether he can get to that point healthy enough to merit such a deal.

No matter what, for an ownership group that seems intent on limiting payroll and being cautious into the future, finding every way possible to generate cost control on their greatest assets is a must. Like Buxton before him, Lewis presents a tantalizing possibility to do just that.

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[TwinsDr2021]

Would I extend him, absolutely, why not it isn't my money. If I was working for the the Twins and under the constraints they are, would I? I wouldn't, there is a pretty big difference in entering Free Agency at age 27 ( Rodriguez) or 28 ( Carroll and Witt)  and age 30. I have said this about all these type of articles of Ober, Ryan, and Duran, if you are in the Twins situation you don't need to pay a premium for guys after age 30 and when guys come up to the majors at 24 or 25 take advantage of the controllable costs and prep the next group, If you have a player that can make the majors at 20,21,22 (fingers crossed that player is Jenkins) you by all mean extend that player to get him in his prime years (late 20's)

Take a few examples of guys they extended and how turned about by age 30 (Sano, Polanco, Kepler, some might say Buxton) it isn't worth the rest of a team like the Twins. (And I haven't even mentioned his injury history)

[Peter]

Twins need to make him face of franchise-have him twins for life!

[arby58]

MLB is riddled with lengthy contracts that didn't turn out well, and it's most often because of injuries. Even as great a player as Mike Trout is becoming a financial problem because of the length and size of his contract and lost games due to injuries.  I love Royce Lewis as a player, but he still hasn't played much - again, because of numerous injuries. The Twins have given lengthy contracts to Correa and Buxton to be 'the face of the franchise' - given the financial reality that they are a mid-market club, I think they let it ride with Lewis.

[Jocko87]

The money fingers picture at the head of this article is quite appropriate. Every time he does that celebration it gets more expensive. He says he's got enough money already and lives frugaly, which I believe, but he also hired Boras for a reason.

This is a tough one with Buxton and him on long contracts with injury history might be a tough risk. The time to do it would be now which makes it even tougher.  It's probably more likely they'd try to buy one or two more years into free agency and setup another contract than try to buy his entire career.

[old nurse]

The thought of extending a player that has not played a full season in over 5 years is a head scratcher.

[UK Twin]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

MLB is riddled with lengthy contracts that didn't turn out well, and it's most often because of injuries. Even as great a player as Mike Trout is becoming a financial problem because of the length and size of his contract and lost games due to injuries.  I love Royce Lewis as a player, but he still hasn't played much - again, because of numerous injuries. The Twins have given lengthy contracts to Correa and Buxton to be 'the face of the franchise' - given the financial reality that they are a mid-market club, I think they let it ride with Lewis.

The difference between Lewis and Trout is that Trout plays a much more physically demanding position. Like Buxton, Trout will have to be managed carefully. Lewis not so much. Lewis will require the odd off day and days DHing but all of his value is in his bat so that doesn't matter. I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to an extension for Lewis.

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The thought of extending a player that has not played a full season in over 5 years is a head scratcher.

I agree with you

And I disagree with you

It's a tough one... I have no doubt that he's a superstar and if you can keep him in a Minnesota uniform... I think you have to do it.

But Yeah... The Injury history is off the charts in his young career thus far. It sure leaves you with a realization that you will probably be paying for a lot of IL time in that contract. 

However... I think you have to give it a shot. 

 

[minman1982]

Could the Byron Buxton contract be a model for an extension here? A decent amount of guaranteed money with a lot of incentives that could make the contract a lot more valuable. Would Lewis take something like $80M/8yr with a bunch of incentives for playing time and performance where he could make $200M or $250M? Lewis is guaranteed to make some money, the team protects itself from Lewis not be able to play, and if Lewis stays healthy, he could get very rich.

[Otaknam]

Lewis is a budding superstar and the face of the franchise. When a team has such a player they have to make every effort to get a long term deal done. 

[Whitey333]

I love Lewis and his potential as a full time player.  But I would not extend him at this point.  We already have a part time " superstar" in Buxton.  Lewis needs to prove he can stay on the field and produce.  It would be prudent fir the Twins to wait.  Tying up too much money on a part time player could hamstring the team.

[LambchoP]

Too early in his career to be talking about an extension. We've got him for what, 5 more years already? See if he can stay healthy, then get something done when he's a year or two from free agency. Having Buxton and Lewis both signed to long term expensive contracts could go wrong in a big way with their injury histories. That being said, Royce is our best player and would love to see him play here his whole career. Just not sure we can afford another big contract.

[chpettit19]

Based on talent? Should absolutely extend him for whatever it takes without regard to market size or anything else. Based on games played? Should stay far, far away from an extension.

I don't know how they come up with a creative enough extension that would make it worth both sides signing. He's hurt too much for the Twins to go all in, but he's got the chance to make unreal money with 1 or 2 healthy seasons so can't sign now.

[tony&rodney]

The paper napkin tells us that arbitration and rising costs are coming for the Twins roster. Perhaps the budget increases but adding another big contract seems unlikely, no matter how much one might believe in a player. 

Lewis banked a lifetime of bonus money when he signed out of high school, which usually means no discounts in future deals.

The Twins may sign a player or two to long term contracts if the terms are heavily in their favor, similar to what the Atlanta organization has completed with several players.

Additionally, I would add that Lewis only has about a half of one season worth of plate appearances thus far in his MLB career. 

Reality suggests year to year for Royce.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

similar to what the Atlanta organization has completed with several players.

The Austin Riley deal is a great comparable. 10 years, $212M. I don't see Royce signing for anything less than that. If the Twins came to Royce with that offer this offseason they would show they are serious.

[Karbo]

I think they have to do whatever they can to sign him. It would be crazy to let this guy walk and tear it up with another team like Ortiz did. Do they need to sign him now? Not really, but IMO they should be at least starting to negotiate. The advantage for Lewis signing would be a better contract than he'd get in arbitration. Would Lewis take a little off the price to stay here? IDK.

[JD-TWINS]

Gotta let the Season play out & see how the health looks. ACL’s are freak accidents most of the time - the Quad injury scares me unless it’s linked to the knee issues and extended down times. Have to believe he’s strong and in great shape…..,,so let’s see in November.

$220/10 years seems like a real number with his history………without the injuries he’s in the Bobby Witt range at $25M/yr for 11 years. He may play it out - he think’s he’s bullet proof regardless of his history………,,,

Buxton & Correa are gone after 2028……4 more seasons. Can’t choke the budget in short-term but they could pay him (as suggested above) around $45M over first 4 years and then $30M/year for 6 years. Freeing Farmer - Thielbar - Margot - Santana - Kepler frees up at least $30M in ‘25.

To entertain this, Team has to see him finish the season unscathed & productive.

[Linus]

I love Royce - I think he is the real deal. Would I extend him?  No chance. Go year to year with him extend the qualifying offer and watch him walk away. We will grieve, take the comp pick and be thankful for the years we had and for the contract we don’t have until age 35. This is doubly true if “rightsizing” is our new payroll normal. 

[Johnny Ringo]

The Twins shouldn't do it and wouldn't do it even if they should.  

Boras doesn't take discounts unless he is absolutely forced to do so.  (For instance, the season is starting and a player doesn't have a contract; not applicable here.) I love the player but this idea is a non-starter. 

Of course, we have no idea of the longer effects of his myriad of injuries, but aging well in his 30s seems very unlikely.

You have him (relatively) cheaply until then.    

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with you

And I disagree with you

It's a tough one... I have no doubt that he's a superstar and if you can keep him in a Minnesota uniform... I think you have to do it.

But Yeah... The Injury history is off the charts in his young career thus far. It sure leaves you with a realization that you will probably be paying for a lot of IL time in that contract. 

However... I think you have to give it a shot. 

 

A contract based on performance (games played, awards won) would be reasonable. The agent is Boras. I think there is a greater chance of a blizzard postponing a game than Boras negotiating that type of contract. It makes no sense to give out the kind of contract that Boras would want. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The Austin Riley deal is a great comparable. 10 years, $212M. I don't see Royce signing for anything less than that. If the Twins came to Royce with that offer this offseason they would show they are serious.

Sorry, I wasn't real clear. I was more thinking along the lines of the Acuna or Murphy contracts, maybe Albies.

I just don't see the Twins going much beyond $160 million in roster payroll unless they draw at least 2.5  million in attendance and sign a rich media contract. I question what the Minnesota market has as a financial ceiling.

[Dave The Dastardly]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I love Lewis and his potential as a full time player.  But I would not extend him at this point.  We already have a part time " superstar" in Buxton.  Lewis needs to prove he can stay on the field and produce.  It would be prudent fir the Twins to wait.  Tying up too much money on a part time player could hamstring the team.

"Tying up too much money on a part time player could hamstring the team."

Nice play on words!

[bean5302]

Can't do it right now. Can't have both Buxton and Lewis on huge deals at the same time. Maybe at the end of the season if Lewis remains healthy, and a new TV contract lets the Twins ownership green light $150MM+ again. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The difference between Lewis and Trout is that Trout plays a much more physically demanding position. Like Buxton, Trout will have to be managed carefully. Lewis not so much. Lewis will require the odd off day and days DHing but all of his value is in his bat so that doesn't matter. I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to an extension for Lewis.

3B is way harder on the body than CF, IMHO. More hard throws, more hard acceleration, more diving and more jumping.

Center Field isn't any different than Right Field. Just a few more plays during the year, and the player covering CF needs to be able to run faster to cover the ground. Fundamentally, not any harder on the body.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, old nurse said:

A contract based on performance (games played, awards won) would be reasonable. The agent is Boras. I think there is a greater chance of a blizzard postponing a game than Boras negotiating that type of contract. It makes no sense to give out the kind of contract that Boras would want. 

I've never met Boras but his reputation sure seems like you describe. So I agree it would be a complication to getting a deal done. 

The deal... if there was one to be had... would need to be like the one offered to Buxton. Just like you describe. 

I'd probably be calling Boras today just to see if he hangs up on me.  

[AKTwinsFan]

It all comes back to the money situation. Like the Minnesota timberwolves just suggested about creating their own network for revenue, the rest of MN teams currently with BSN should also (like the Yes network in NY). That way they can make more money that doesn't get divided within a bankrupt BSN.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, minman1982 said:

Could the Byron Buxton contract be a model for an extension here? A decent amount of guaranteed money with a lot of incentives that could make the contract a lot more valuable. Would Lewis take something like $80M/8yr with a bunch of incentives for playing time and performance where he could make $200M or $250M? Lewis is guaranteed to make some money, the team protects itself from Lewis not be able to play, and if Lewis stays healthy, he could get very rich.

I was thinking the same thing. But IMO Boras doesn't work that way.

I'm not much to extend a player so early into his career, especially having Boras as an agent. But I'll take an exception with Lewis. Lewis is the type of player you want to have as a lifer. Having his attitude, joy & talents that greatly affects the whole team.

His 1st ACL was a freak accident of a sunny Southern Cal young man's confrontation with ice. 2nd is the bad judgment of putting him in CF, Keep him in the INF we'll be fine. Soft tissue especially shortly after return will happen. Going forward I don't see there'll be a real issue. But his past, is a bargaining chip that can be used & he loves to play here. we can use in our favor. The longer we wait more costly it'll become. It could become now or never. I'm a believer, make it a priority, and extend him now.

[bean5302]

I can't see any possibility of Lewis taking an incentive laden deal.

The MLBPA would be against it, his agent would be against it, and the only party in a position to win is the Twins. MLB contracts do not have big escalators relative to the base contract because it guts the spirit of a guaranteed contract.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I love Royce - I think he is the real deal. Would I extend him?  No chance. Go year to year with him extend the qualifying offer and watch him walk away. We will grieve, take the comp pick and be thankful for the years we had and for the contract we don’t have until age 35. This is doubly true if “rightsizing” is our new payroll normal. 

Maybe A-Rod & Bloomberg & Company will buy the Twins!?!

I really don’t think there’s a spending plan out more than 3-4 years, regarding the “right sizing” payroll. If he keeps going anywhere near his season totals this year - not signing him (trying) - would be like letting Puckett walk.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Maybe A-Rod & Bloomberg & Company will buy the Twins!?!

I really don’t think there’s a spending plan out more than 3-4 years, regarding the “right sizing” payroll. If he keeps going anywhere near his season totals this year - not signing him (trying) - would be like letting Puckett walk.

If the Twins win the World Series this year, I guarantee there is more payroll flexibility. Payroll limit probably goes to $180MM next year as season ticket sales will skyrocket and ticket prices will increase a lot, too. Lots depends on how the Twins perform.

I think it's pretty clear Joe Pohlad isn't going to be doing a lot of interviews in the near future without having gone through a lot of coaching, lol.